Development of risk models of incident hypertension using machine learning on the HUNT study data.

In this study, we aimed to create an 11-year hypertension risk prediction model using data from the Trøndelag Health (HUNT) Study in Norway, involving 17 852 individuals (20-85 years; 38% male; 24% incidence rate) with blood pressure (BP) below the hypertension threshold at baseline (1995-1997). We assessed 18 clinical, behavioral, and socioeconomic features, employing machine learning models such as eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Elastic regression, K-Nearest Neighbor, Support Vector Machines (SVM) and Random Forest. For comparison, we used logistic regression and a decision rule as reference models and validated six external models, with focus on the Framingham risk model. The top-performing models consistently included XGBoost, Elastic regression and SVM. These models efficiently identified hypertension risk, even among individuals with optimal baseline BP (< 120/80 mmHg), although improvement over reference models was modest. The recalibrated Framingham risk model outperformed the reference models, approaching the best-performing ML models. Important features included age, systolic and diastolic BP, body mass index, height, and family history of hypertension. In conclusion, our study demonstrated that linear effects sufficed for a well-performing model. The best models efficiently predicted hypertension risk, even among those with optimal or normal baseline BP, using few features. The recalibrated Framingham risk model proved effective in our cohort.

Polygenic risk scores associate with blood pressure traits across the lifespan.

AIMS: Hypertension is a major modifiable cause of morbidity and mortality that affects over 1 billion people worldwide. Blood pressure (BP) traits have a strong genetic component that can be quantified with polygenic risk scores (PRSs). To date, the performance of BP PRSs has mainly been assessed in adults, and less is known about polygenic hypertension risk in childhood. METHODS AND RESULTS: Multiple PRSs for systolic BP (SBP), diastolic BP (DBP), and pulse pressure were developed using either genome-wide significant weights, pruning and thresholding, or Bayesian regression. Among 87 total PRSs, the top performer for each trait was applied in independent cohorts of children and adult to assess genotype-phenotype associations and disease risk across the lifespan. Differences between those with low (1st decile), average (2nd-9th decile), and high (10th decile) PRS emerge in the first years of life and are maintained throughout adulthood. These diverging BP trajectories also seem to affect cardiovascular and renal disease risk, with increased risk observed among those in the top decile and reduced risk among those in the bottom decile of the polygenic risk distribution compared with the rest of the population. CONCLUSION: Genetic risk factors are associated with BP traits across the lifespan, beginning in the first years of life. Given the importance of exposure time in disease pathogenesis and the early rise in BP levels among those genetically susceptible, PRSs may help identify high-risk individuals prior to hypertension onset, facilitate primordial prevention, and reduce the burden of this public health challenge.

A high genetic risk of elevated blood pressure (BP) is associated with increased BP from early childhood and throughout the lifespan. Inherited predispositions also affect the risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, yet this appears to be modified by the absence or presence of hypertension, indicating that genetic hypertension risk is not deterministic, and that controlling BP can and should be done across the polygenic risk distribution. Given that differences in BP emerge early in life as a function of genetic risk, polygenic risk scores have the potential to reduce the duration of exposure to high BP by identifying high-risk individuals from birth, and thereby attenuate lifelong disease risk.

Wrist ballistocardiography and invasively recorded blood pressure in healthy volunteers during reclining bike exercise.

Objective: Ballistocardiogram (BCG) features are of interest in wearable cardiovascular monitoring of cardiac performance. We assess feasibility of wrist acceleration BCG during exercise for estimating pulse transit time (PTT), enabling broader cardiovascular response studies during acute exercise and improved monitoring in individuals at risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD). We also examine the relationship between PTT, blood pressure (BP), and stroke volume (SV) during exercise and posture interventions. Methods: 25 participants underwent a bike exercise protocol with four incremental workloads (0 W, 50 W, 100 W, and 150 W) in supine and semirecumbent postures. BCG, invasive radial artery BP, tonometry, photoplethysmography (PPG) and echocardiography were recorded. Ensemble averages of BCG signals determined aortic valve opening (AVO) timings, combined with peripheral pulse wave arrival times to calculate PTT. We tested for significance using Wilcoxon signed-rank test. Results: BCG was successfully recorded at the wrist during exercise. PTT exhibited a moderate negative correlation with systolic BP (ρSup = -0.65, ρSR = -0.57, ρAll = -0.54). PTT differences between supine and semirecumbent conditions were significant at 0 W and 50 W (p < 0.001), less at 100 W (p = 0.0135) and 150 W (p = 0.031). SBP and DBP were lower in semirecumbent posture (p < 0.01), while HR was slightly higher. Echocardiography confirmed association of BCG features with AVO and indicated a positive relationship between BCG amplitude and SV (ρ = 0.74). Significance: Wrist BCG may allow convenient PTT and possibly SV tracking during exercise, enabling studies of cardiovascular response to acute exercise and convenient monitoring of cardiovascular performance.

Monitoring variability in parameter estimates for lumped parameter models of the systemic circulation using longitudinal hemodynamic measurements.

BACKGROUND: Physics-based cardiovascular models are only recently being considered for disease diagnosis or prognosis in clinical settings. These models depend on parameters representing the physical and physiological properties of the modeled system. Personalizing these parameters may give insight into the specific state of the individual and etiology of disease. We applied a relatively fast model optimization scheme based on common local optimization methods to two model formulations of the left ventricle and systemic circulation. One closed-loop model and one open-loop model were applied. Intermittently collected hemodynamic data from an exercise motivation study were used to personalize these models for data from 25 participants. The hemodynamic data were collected for each participant at the start, middle and end of the trial. We constructed two data sets for the participants, both consisting of systolic and diastolic brachial pressure, stroke volume, and left-ventricular outflow tract velocity traces paired with either the finger arterial pressure waveform or the carotid pressure waveform. RESULTS: We examined the feasibility of separating parameter estimates for the individual from population estimates by assessing the variability of estimates using the interquartile range. We found that the estimated parameter values were similar for the two model formulations, but that the systemic arterial compliance was significantly different ([Formula: see text]) depending on choice of pressure waveform. The estimates of systemic arterial compliance were on average higher when using the finger artery pressure waveform as compared to the carotid waveform. CONCLUSIONS: We found that for the majority of participants, the variability of parameter estimates for a given participant on any measurement day was lower than the variability both across all measurement days combined for one participant, and for the population. This indicates that it is possible to identify individuals from the population, and that we can distinguish different measurement days for the individual participant by parameter values using the presented optimization method.