Reproductive characteristics, menopausal status, race and ethnicity, and risk of breast cancer subtypes defined by ER, PR and HER2 status: the Breast Cancer Etiology in Minorities study.

BACKGROUND: Associations between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer differ by subtype defined by joint estrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and HER2 expression status. Racial and ethnic differences in the incidence of breast cancer subtypes suggest etiologic heterogeneity, yet data are limited because most studies have included non-Hispanic White women only. METHODS: We analyzed harmonized data for 2,794 breast cancer cases and 4,579 controls, of whom 90% self-identified as African American, Asian American or Hispanic. Questionnaire data were pooled from three population-based studies conducted in California and data on tumor characteristics were obtained from the California Cancer Registry. The study sample included 1,530 luminal A (ER-positive and/or PR-positive, HER2-negative), 442 luminal B (ER-positive and/or PR-positive, HER2-positive), 578 triple-negative (TN; ER-negative, PR-negative, HER2-negative), and 244 HER2-enriched (ER-negative, PR-negative, HER2-positive) cases. We used multivariable unconditional logistic regression models to estimate subtype-specific ORs and 95% confidence intervals associated with parity, breast-feeding, and other reproductive characteristics by menopausal status and race and ethnicity. RESULTS: Subtype-specific associations with reproductive factors revealed some notable differences by menopausal status and race and ethnicity. Specifically, higher parity without breast-feeding was associated with higher risk of luminal A and TN subtypes among premenopausal African American women. In contrast, among Asian American and Hispanic women, regardless of menopausal status, higher parity with a breast-feeding history was associated with lower risk of luminal A subtype. Among premenopausal women only, luminal A subtype was associated with older age at first full-term pregnancy (FTP), longer interval between menarche and first FTP, and shorter interval since last FTP, with similar OR estimates across the three racial and ethnic groups. CONCLUSIONS: Subtype-specific associations with reproductive factors overall and by menopausal status, and race and ethnicity, showed some differences, underscoring that understanding etiologic heterogeneity in racially and ethnically diverse study samples is essential. Breast-feeding is likely the only reproductive factor that is potentially modifiable. Targeted efforts to promote and facilitate breast-feeding could help mitigate the adverse effects of higher parity among premenopausal African American women.

Novel breast cancer susceptibility loci under linkage peaks identified in African ancestry consortia.

BACKGROUND: Expansion of genome-wide association studies across population groups is needed to improve our understanding of shared and unique genetic contributions to breast cancer. We performed association and replication studies guided by a priori linkage findings from African ancestry (AA) relative pairs. METHODS: We performed fixed-effect inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis under three significant AA breast cancer linkage peaks (3q26-27, 12q22-23, and 16q21-22) in 9241 AA cases and 10 193 AA controls. We examined associations with overall breast cancer as well as estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and negative subtypes (193,132 SNPs). We replicated associations in the African-ancestry Breast Cancer Genetic Consortium (AABCG). RESULTS: In AA women, we identified two associations on chr12q for overall breast cancer (rs1420647, OR = 1.15, p = 2.50×10-6; rs12322371, OR = 1.14, p = 3.15×10-6), and one for ER-negative breast cancer (rs77006600, OR = 1.67, p = 3.51×10-6). On chr3, we identified two associations with ER-negative disease (rs184090918, OR = 3.70, p = 1.23×10-5; rs76959804, OR = 3.57, p = 1.77×10-5) and on chr16q we identified an association with ER-negative disease (rs34147411, OR = 1.62, p = 8.82×10-6). In the replication study, the chr3 associations were significant and effect sizes were larger (rs184090918, OR: 6.66, 95% CI: 1.43, 31.01; rs76959804, OR: 5.24, 95% CI: 1.70, 16.16). CONCLUSION: The two chr3 SNPs are upstream to open chromatin ENSR00000710716, a regulatory feature that is actively regulated in mammary tissues, providing evidence that variants in this chr3 region may have a regulatory role in our target organ. Our study provides support for breast cancer variant discovery using prioritization based on linkage evidence.

Polygenic Risk Score Modifies Prostate Cancer Risk of Pathogenic Variants in Men of African Ancestry.

Prostate cancer risk is influenced by rare and common germline variants. We examined the aggregate association of rare germline pathogenic/likely pathogenic/deleterious (P/LP/D) variants in ATM, BRCA2, PALB2, and NBN with a polygenic risk score (PRS) on prostate cancer risk among 1,796 prostate cancer cases (222 metastatic) and 1,424 controls of African ancestry. Relative to P/LP/D non-carriers at average genetic risk (33%-66% of PRS), men with low (0%-33%) and high (66%-100%) PRS had Odds Ratios (ORs) for overall prostate cancer of 2.08 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.58-7.49] and 18.06 (95% CI = 4.24-76.84) among P/LP/D carriers and 0.57 (95% CI = 0.46-0.71) and 3.02 (95% CI = 2.53-3.60) among non-carriers, respectively. The OR for metastatic prostate cancer was 2.73 (95% CI = 0.24-30.54) and 28.99 (95% CI = 4.39-191.43) among P/LP/D carriers and 0.54 (95% CI = 0.31-0.95) and 3.22 (95% CI = 2.20-4.73) among non-carriers, for men with low and high PRS, respectively. Lifetime absolute risks of overall prostate cancer increased with PRS (low to high) from 9.8% to 51.5% in P/LP/D carriers and 5.5% to 23.9% in non-carriers. Lifetime absolute risks of metastatic prostate cancer increased with PRS from 1.9% to 18.1% in P/LP/D carriers and 0.3% to 2.2% in non-carriers These findings suggest that assessment of prostate cancer risk for rare variant carriers should include PRS status. SIGNIFICANCE: These findings highlight the importance of considering rare and common variants to comprehensively assess prostate cancer risk in men of African ancestry.

Association of HCG Level with Ultrasound Visualization of the Gestational Sac in Early Viable Pregnancies.

Our primary objective is to verify or refute a 2013 study by Connolly et al. which showed that in early pregnancy, a gestational sac was visualized 99% of the time on transvaginal ultrasound when the HCG level reached 3510 mIU/mL. Our secondary objective was to make clinical correlations by assessing the relationship between human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) level in early pregnancy when a gestational sac is not seen and pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and ectopic pregnancy. This retrospective study includes 144 pregnancies with an outcome of live birth, 87 pregnancies with an outcome of spontaneous abortion, and 59 ectopic pregnancies. Logistic regression is used to determine the probability of visualizing a gestational sac and/or yolk sac based on the HCG level. A gestational sac is predicted to be visualized 50% of the time at an HCG level of 979 mIU/mL, 90% at 2421 mIU/mL, and 99% of the time at 3994 mIU/mL. A yolk sac was predicted to be visualized 50% of the time at an HCG level of 4626 mIU/mL, 90% at 12,892 mIU/mL, and 99% at 39,454 mIU/mL. A total of 90% of ectopic pregnancies presented with an HCG level below 3994 mIU/mL. These results are in agreement with the study by Connolly et al. Since most early ectopic pregnancies had an HCG value below the discriminatory level for gestational sac visualization, other methods for the evaluation of pregnancy of unknown location such as repeat HCG values are clinically important.

Evidence of Novel Susceptibility Variants for Prostate Cancer and a Multiancestry Polygenic Risk Score Associated with Aggressive Disease in Men of African Ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Genetic factors play an important role in prostate cancer (PCa) susceptibility. OBJECTIVE: To discover common genetic variants contributing to the risk of PCa in men of African ancestry. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We conducted a meta-analysis of ten genome-wide association studies consisting of 19378 cases and 61620 controls of African ancestry. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: Common genotyped and imputed variants were tested for their association with PCa risk. Novel susceptibility loci were identified and incorporated into a multiancestry polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was evaluated for associations with PCa risk and disease aggressiveness. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Nine novel susceptibility loci for PCa were identified, of which seven were only found or substantially more common in men of African ancestry, including an African-specific stop-gain variant in the prostate-specific gene anoctamin 7 (ANO7). A multiancestry PRS of 278 risk variants conferred strong associations with PCa risk in African ancestry studies (odds ratios [ORs] >3 and >5 for men in the top PRS decile and percentile, respectively). More importantly, compared with men in the 40-60% PRS category, men in the top PRS decile had a significantly higher risk of aggressive PCa (OR = 1.23, 95% confidence interval = 1.10-1.38, p = 4.4 × 10-4). CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates the importance of large-scale genetic studies in men of African ancestry for a better understanding of PCa susceptibility in this high-risk population and suggests a potential clinical utility of PRS in differentiating between the risks of developing aggressive and nonaggressive disease in men of African ancestry. PATIENT SUMMARY: In this large genetic study in men of African ancestry, we discovered nine novel prostate cancer (PCa) risk variants. We also showed that a multiancestry polygenic risk score was effective in stratifying PCa risk, and was able to differentiate risk of aggressive and nonaggressive disease.

Genome Analysis Using Whole-Exome Sequencing of Non-Syndromic Cleft Lip and/or Palate from Malagasy Trios Identifies Variants Associated with Cilium-Related Pathways and Asian Genetic Ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Orofacial clefts (OFCs) are common congenital disabilities that can occur as isolated non-syndromic events or as part of Mendelian syndromes. OFC risk factors vary due to differences in regional environmental exposures, genetic variants, and ethnicities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in understanding OFCs, due to advances in sequencing and genotyping technologies. Despite these advances, very little is known about the genetic interplay in the Malagasy population. METHODS: Here, we performed high-resolution whole-exome sequencing (WES) on non-syndromic cleft lip with or without palate (nCL/P) trios in the Malagasy population (78 individuals from 26 families (trios)). To integrate the impact of genetic ancestry admixture, we computed both global and local ancestries. RESULTS: Participants demonstrated a high percentage of both African and Asian admixture. We identified damaging variants in primary cilium-mediated pathway genes WNT5B (one family), GPC4 (one family), co-occurrence in MSX1 (five families), WDR11 (one family), and tubulin stabilizer SEPTIN9 (one family). Furthermore, we identified an autosomal homozygous damaging variant in PHGDH (one family) gene that may impact metabiotic activity. Lastly, all variants were predicted to reside on local Asian genetic ancestry admixed alleles. CONCLUSION: Our results from examining the Malagasy genome provide limited support for the hypothesis that germline variants in primary cilia may be risk factors for nCL/P, and outline the importance of integrating local ancestry components better to understand the multi-ethnic impact on nCL/P.

Changes in Breast Cancer Risk and Risk Factor Profiles among U.S.-Born and Immigrant Asian American Women Residing in the San Francisco Bay Area.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer incidence rates in women of Asian descent have been increasing in the United States and Asia. METHODS: In a case-control study of Asian American women from the San Francisco Bay Area, we assessed associations with birthplace and migration-related characteristics and compared risk factors between Asian American and non-Hispanic White women by birthplace and birth cohort. RESULTS: Birthplace and migration-related characteristics were associated with breast cancer risk only among women in the younger birth cohort (1951-1984) that comprised 355 cases diagnosed at age ≤55 years and 276 sister and population controls. Breast cancer risk was marginally increased among foreign-born women [OR = 1.40; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.97-2.03] and two-fold among foreign-born Chinese women (OR = 2.16; 95% CI, 1.21-3.88). Two-fold increased risks were associated with migration at age ≥40 years and longer U.S. residence (≥30 years or ≥75% of life). The education level was high among both cases and controls. Differences in the prevalence of risk factors by birthplace and birth cohort suggest temporal changes in reproductive and lifestyle-related factors. The prevalence in risk factors was similar between foreign-born and U.S.-born women in the younger birth cohort, and did not fully explain the observed associations with birthplace and other migration characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to studies from earlier decades, younger foreign-born Asian American women had a higher risk of breast cancer than U.S.-born Asian American women. IMPACT: It is important and urgent to understand what factors drive the increasing burden of breast cancer in women of Asian descent and implement effective prevention programs.

Highlights from the 24th workshop on vitamin D in Austin, September 2022.

The 24th Workshop on Vitamin D was held September 7-9, 2022 in Austin, Texas and covered a wide diversity of research in the vitamin D field from across the globe. Here, we summarize the meeting, individual sessions, awards and presentations given.

Urinary Biomarkers of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons and Timing of Pubertal Development: The California PAH Study.

BACKGROUND: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) are endocrine-disrupting chemicals. Few studies have evaluated the association between pubertal development in girls and PAH exposures quantified by urinary biomarkers. METHODS: We examined associations of urinary PAH metabolites with pubertal development in 358 girls 6-16 years of age from the San Francisco Bay Area enrolled in a prospective cohort from 2011 to 2013 and followed until 2020. Using baseline data, we assessed associations of urinary PAH metabolites with pubertal development stage. In prospective analyses limited to girls who at baseline had not yet started breast (N = 176) or pubic hair (N = 179) development or menstruation (N = 267), we used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression to assess associations of urinary PAH metabolites with the onset of breast and pubic hair development, menstruation, and pubertal tempo (interval between the onset of breast development and menstruation). RESULTS: We detected PAH metabolites in >98% of girls. In cross-sectional analyses using baseline data, PAH metabolites were not associated with the pubertal development stage. In prospective analyses, higher concentrations (≥ median) of some PAH metabolites were associated with two-fold higher odds of earlier breast development (2-hydroxy naphthalene, 1-hydroxy phenanthrene, summed hydroxy phenanthrenes) or pubic hair development (1-hydroxy naphthalene) among girls overweight at baseline (body mass index-for-age percentile ≥85) compared with nonoverweight girls with lower metabolites concentrations. PAH metabolites were not associated with age at menarche or pubertal tempo. CONCLUSIONS: PAH exposures were widespread in our sample. Our results support the hypothesis that, in overweight girls, PAHs impact the timing of pubertal development, an important risk factor for breast cancer.

Polygenic risk scores for prediction of breast cancer risk in women of African ancestry: a cross-ancestry approach.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are useful for predicting breast cancer risk, but the prediction accuracy of existing PRSs in women of African ancestry (AA) remains relatively low. We aim to develop optimal PRSs for the prediction of overall and estrogen receptor (ER) subtype-specific breast cancer risk in AA women. The AA dataset comprised 9235 cases and 10 184 controls from four genome-wide association study (GWAS) consortia and a GWAS study in Ghana. We randomly divided samples into training and validation sets. We built PRSs using individual-level AA data by a forward stepwise logistic regression and then developed joint PRSs that combined (1) the PRSs built in the AA training dataset and (2) a 313-variant PRS previously developed in women of European ancestry. PRSs were evaluated in the AA validation set. For overall breast cancer, the odds ratio per standard deviation of the joint PRS in the validation set was 1.34 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.27-1.42] with the area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.581. Compared with women with average risk (40th-60th PRS percentile), women in the top decile of the PRS had a 1.98-fold increased risk (95% CI: 1.63-2.39). For PRSs of ER-positive and ER-negative breast cancer, the AUCs were 0.608 and 0.576, respectively. Compared with existing methods, the proposed joint PRSs can improve prediction of breast cancer risk in AA women.

Prostate cancer risk stratification improvement across multiple ancestries with new polygenic hazard score.

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer risk stratification using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) demonstrates considerable promise in men of European, Asian, and African genetic ancestries, but there is still need for increased accuracy. We evaluated whether including additional SNPs in a prostate cancer polygenic hazard score (PHS) would improve associations with clinically significant prostate cancer in multi-ancestry datasets. METHODS: In total, 299 SNPs previously associated with prostate cancer were evaluated for inclusion in a new PHS, using a LASSO-regularized Cox proportional hazards model in a training dataset of 72,181 men from the PRACTICAL Consortium. The PHS model was evaluated in four testing datasets: African ancestry, Asian ancestry, and two of European Ancestry-the Cohort of Swedish Men (COSM) and the ProtecT study. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare men with high versus low PHS for association with clinically significant, with any, and with fatal prostate cancer. The impact of genetic risk stratification on the positive predictive value (PPV) of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer was also measured. RESULTS: The final model (PHS290) had 290 SNPs with non-zero coefficients. Comparing, for example, the highest and lowest quintiles of PHS290, the hazard ratios (HRs) for clinically significant prostate cancer were 13.73 [95% CI: 12.43-15.16] in ProtecT, 7.07 [6.58-7.60] in African ancestry, 10.31 [9.58-11.11] in Asian ancestry, and 11.18 [10.34-12.09] in COSM. Similar results were seen for association with any and fatal prostate cancer. Without PHS stratification, the PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer in ProtecT was 0.12 (0.11-0.14). For the top 20% and top 5% of PHS290, the PPV of PSA testing was 0.19 (0.15-0.22) and 0.26 (0.19-0.33), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrate better genetic risk stratification for clinically significant prostate cancer than prior versions of PHS in multi-ancestry datasets. This is promising for implementing precision-medicine approaches to prostate cancer screening decisions in diverse populations.

A Rare Germline HOXB13 Variant Contributes to Risk of Prostate Cancer in Men of African Ancestry.

A rare African ancestry-specific germline deletion variant in HOXB13 (X285K, rs77179853) was recently reported in Martinican men with early-onset prostate cancer. Given the role of HOXB13 germline variation in prostate cancer, we investigated the association between HOXB13 X285K and prostate cancer risk in a large sample of 22 361 African ancestry men, including 11 688 prostate cancer cases. The risk allele was present only in men of West African ancestry, with an allele frequency in men that ranged from 0.40% in Ghana and 0.31% in Nigeria to 0% in Uganda and South Africa, with a range of frequencies in men with admixed African ancestry from North America and Europe (0-0.26%). HOXB13 X285K was associated with 2.4-fold increased odds of prostate cancer (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.5-3.9, p = 2 × 10-4), with greater risk observed for more aggressive and advanced disease (Gleason ≥8: odds ratio [OR] = 4.7, 95% CI = 2.3-9.5, p = 2 × 10-5; stage T3/T4: OR = 4.5, 95% CI = 2.0-10.0, p = 2 × 10-4; metastatic disease: OR = 5.1, 95% CI = 1.9-13.7, p = 0.001). We estimated that the allele arose in West Africa 1500-4600 yr ago. Further analysis is needed to understand how the HOXB13 X285K variant impacts the HOXB13 protein and function in the prostate. Understanding who carries this mutation may inform prostate cancer screening in men of West African ancestry. PATIENT SUMMARY: A rare African ancestry-specific germline deletion in HOXB13, found only in men of West African ancestry, was reported to be associated with an increased risk of overall and advanced prostate cancer. Understanding who carries this mutation may help inform screening for prostate cancer in men of West African ancestry.

Cumulative menstrual months and breast cancer risk by hormone receptor status and ethnicity: The Breast Cancer Etiology in Minorities Study.

Reproductive and hormonal factors may influence breast cancer risk via endogenous estrogen exposure. Cumulative menstrual months (CMM) can be used as a surrogate measure of this exposure. Using harmonized data from four population-based breast cancer studies (7284 cases and 7242 controls), we examined ethnicity-specific associations between CMM and breast cancer risk using logistic regression, adjusting for menopausal status and other risk factors. Higher CMM was associated with increased breast cancer risk in non-Hispanic Whites, Hispanics and Asian Americans regardless of menopausal status (all FDR adjusted P trends = .0004), but not in African Americans. In premenopausal African Americans, there was a suggestive trend of lower risk with higher CMM. Stratification by body mass index (BMI) among premenopausal African American women showed a nonsignificant positive association with CMM in nonobese (BMI <30 kg/m2 ) women and a significant inverse association in obese women (OR per 50 CMM = 0.56, 95% CI 0.37-0.87, Ptrend  = .03). Risk patterns were similar for hormone receptor positive (HR+; ER+ or PR+) breast cancer; a positive association was found in all premenopausal and postmenopausal ethnic groups except in African Americans. HR- (ER- and PR-) breast cancer was not associated with CMM in all groups combined, except for a suggestive positive association among premenopausal Asian Americans (OR per 50 CMM = 1.33, P = .07). In summary, these results add to the accumulating evidence that established reproductive and hormonal factors impact breast cancer risk differently in African American women compared to other ethnic groups, and also differently for HR- breast cancer than HR+ breast cancer.

Predictors of urinary polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon metabolites in girls from the San Francisco Bay Area.

BACKGROUND: Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) exposures from tobacco smoke, automobile exhaust, grilled or smoked meat and other sources are widespread and are a public health concern, as many are classified as probable carcinogens and suspected endocrine-disrupting chemicals. PAH exposures can be quantified using urinary biomarkers. METHODS: Seven urinary metabolites of naphthalene, fluorene, phenanthrene, and pyrene were measured in two samples collected from girls aged 6-16 years from the San Francisco Bay Area. We used Spearman correlation coefficients (SCC) to assess correlations among metabolite concentrations (corrected for specific gravity) separately in first (n = 359) and last (N = 349) samples, and to assess consistency of measurements in samples collected up to 72 months apart. Using multivariable linear regression, we assessed variation in mean metabolites across categories of participant characteristics and potential outdoor, indoor, and dietary sources of PAH exposures. RESULTS: The detection rate of PAH metabolites was high (4 metabolites in ≥98% of first samples; 5 metabolites in ≥95% of last samples). Correlations were moderate to strong between fluorene, phenanthrene and pyrene metabolites (SCC 0.43-0.82), but weaker between naphthalene and the other metabolites (SCC 0.18-0.36). SCC between metabolites in first and last samples ranged from 0.15 to 0.49. When classifying metabolite concentrations into tertiles based on single samples (first or last samples) vs. the average of the two samples, agreement was moderate to substantial (weighted kappa statistics 0.52-0.65). For specific metabolites, concentrations varied by age, race/ethnicity, and body mass index percentile, as well as by outdoor sources (season of sample collection, street traffic), indoor sources (heating with gas, cigarette smoke), and dietary sources (frequent use of grill, consumption of smoked meat or fish) of PAH exposures. CONCLUSIONS: Urinary PAH exposure was widespread in girls aged 6-16 years and associated with several sources of exposure. Tertile classification of a single urine sample provides reliable PAH exposure ranking.

Cross-ancestry GWAS meta-analysis identifies six breast cancer loci in African and European ancestry women.

Our study describes breast cancer risk loci using a cross-ancestry GWAS approach. We first identify variants that are associated with breast cancer at P < 0.05 from African ancestry GWAS meta-analysis (9241 cases and 10193 controls), then meta-analyze with European ancestry GWAS data (122977 cases and 105974 controls) from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. The approach identifies four loci for overall breast cancer risk [1p13.3, 5q31.1, 15q24 (two independent signals), and 15q26.3] and two loci for estrogen receptor-negative disease (1q41 and 7q11.23) at genome-wide significance. Four of the index single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) lie within introns of genes (KCNK2, C5orf56, SCAMP2, and SIN3A) and the other index SNPs are located close to GSTM4, AMPD2, CASTOR2, and RP11-168G16.2. Here we present risk loci with consistent direction of associations in African and European descendants. The study suggests that replication across multiple ancestry populations can help improve the understanding of breast cancer genetics and identify causal variants.

Evaluating Polygenic Risk Scores for Breast Cancer in Women of African Ancestry.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been demonstrated to identify women of European, Asian, and Latino ancestry at elevated risk of developing breast cancer (BC). We evaluated the performance of existing PRSs trained in European ancestry populations among women of African ancestry. METHODS: We assembled genotype data for women of African ancestry, including 9241 case subjects and 10 193 control subjects. We evaluated associations of 179- and 313-variant PRSs with overall and subtype-specific BC risk. PRS discriminatory accuracy was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. We also evaluated a recalibrated PRS, replacing the index variant with variants in each region that better captured risk in women of African ancestry and estimated lifetime absolute risk of BC in African Americans by PRS category. RESULTS: For overall BC, the odds ratio per SD of the 313-variant PRS (PRS313) was 1.27 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.23 to 1.31), with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.571 (95% CI = 0.562 to 0.579). Compared with women with average risk (40th-60th PRS percentile), women in the top decile of PRS313 had a 1.54-fold increased risk (95% CI = 1.38-fold to 1.72-fold). By age 85 years, the absolute risk of overall BC was 19.6% for African American women in the top 1% of PRS313 and 6.7% for those in the lowest 1%. The recalibrated PRS did not improve BC risk prediction. CONCLUSION: The PRSs stratify BC risk in women of African ancestry, with attenuated performance compared with that reported in European, Asian, and Latina populations. Future work is needed to improve BC risk stratification for women of African ancestry.

Design and validation of a model for quality control monitoring of dichotomous in vitro fertilization outcomes.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and validate a practical model for quality control monitoring of dichotomous in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes such as pregnancy resulting from the transfer of euploid blastocysts. DESIGN: We designed and validated a model for quality control monitoring of dichotomous IVF outcomes. We demonstrate use of this model for assessment of euploid blastocyst transfer quality control based on fetal heartbeat rate per embryo. The model uses 3 weighted moving averages with window sizes of 21, 51, and 101 embryo transfers to detect short and long-term shifts in success rates. The quality warning limit was set to have a 2-sided type I error rate of 0.30 per 100 embryo transfers and the control limit was set to have a type I error rate of 0.05 per 100 embryo transfers. Simulation studies were performed to validate the model through assessment of type I and type II errors using custom computer programs. SETTING: Not applicable. PATIENT(S): Patients undergoing IVF. INTERVENTION(S): None. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Type I and type II error rates and statistical power analysis. RESULT(S): Validated quality warning and control limits are presented for a range of expected outcome rates. The power to detect a 20% decrease from an expected fetal heartbeat rate of 50%, when the decrease persisted for 50 embryo transfers, was 86% for the warning limit and 57% for the control limit. CONCLUSION(S): This model can be used for continuous quality control assessment of dichotomous IVF outcomes such as pregnancy rates.

Polygenic hazard score is associated with prostate cancer in multi-ethnic populations.

Genetic models for cancer have been evaluated using almost exclusively European data, which could exacerbate health disparities. A polygenic hazard score (PHS1) is associated with age at prostate cancer diagnosis and improves screening accuracy in Europeans. Here, we evaluate performance of PHS2 (PHS1, adapted for OncoArray) in a multi-ethnic dataset of 80,491 men (49,916 cases, 30,575 controls). PHS2 is associated with age at diagnosis of any and aggressive (Gleason score ≥ 7, stage T3-T4, PSA ≥ 10 ng/mL, or nodal/distant metastasis) cancer and prostate-cancer-specific death. Associations with cancer are significant within European (n = 71,856), Asian (n = 2,382), and African (n = 6,253) genetic ancestries (p < 10-180). Comparing the 80th/20th PHS2 percentiles, hazard ratios for prostate cancer, aggressive cancer, and prostate-cancer-specific death are 5.32, 5.88, and 5.68, respectively. Within European, Asian, and African ancestries, hazard ratios for prostate cancer are: 5.54, 4.49, and 2.54, respectively. PHS2 risk-stratifies men for any, aggressive, and fatal prostate cancer in a multi-ethnic dataset.

Baseline Circulating Tumor Cell Count as a Prognostic Marker of PSA Response and Disease Progression in Metastatic Castrate-Sensitive Prostate Cancer (SWOG S1216).

PURPOSE: In metastatic castrate-sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC), combined androgen axis inhibition is a standard of care. Noninvasive biomarkers that guide initial therapy decisions are needed. We hypothesized that CellSearch circulating tumor cell (CTC) count, an FDA-cleared assay in metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC), is a relevant biomarker in mCSPC. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: SWOG S1216 is a phase III prospective randomized trial of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) combined with orteronel or bicalutamide for mCSPC. CellSearch CTC count was measured at registration (baseline). Prespecified CTC cut-off points of 0, 1-4, and ≥5 were correlated with baseline patient characteristics and, in a stratified subsample, were also correlated with two prespecified trial secondary endpoints: 7-month PSA ≤0.2 ng/mL versus 0.2-4.0 versus >4.0 (intermediate endpoint for overall survival); and progression-free survival (PFS) ≤ versus >2 years. RESULTS: A total of 523 patients submitted baseline samples, and CTCs were detected (median 3) in 33%. Adjusting for two trial stratification factors (disease burden and timing of ADT initiation), men with undetectable CTCs had nearly nine times the odds of attaining 7-month PSA ≤ 0.2 versus > 4.0 [OR 8.8, 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.7-28.6, P < 0.001, N = 264] and four times the odds of achieving > 2 years PFS (OR 4.0, 95% CI, 1.9-8.5, P < 0.001, N = 336) compared with men with baseline CTCs ≥5. CONCLUSIONS: Baseline CTC count in mCSPC is highly prognostic of 7-month PSA and 2-year PFS after adjusting for disease burden and discriminates men who are likely to experience poor survival outcomes.

Additional SNPs improve risk stratification of a polygenic hazard score for prostate cancer.

BACKGROUND: Polygenic hazard scores (PHS) can identify individuals with increased risk of prostate cancer. We estimated the benefit of additional SNPs on performance of a previously validated PHS (PHS46). MATERIALS AND METHOD: 180 SNPs, shown to be previously associated with prostate cancer, were used to develop a PHS model in men with European ancestry. A machine-learning approach, LASSO-regularized Cox regression, was used to select SNPs and to estimate their coefficients in the training set (75,596 men). Performance of the resulting model was evaluated in the testing/validation set (6,411 men) with two metrics: (1) hazard ratios (HRs) and (2) positive predictive value (PPV) of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) testing. HRs were estimated between individuals with PHS in the top 5% to those in the middle 40% (HR95/50), top 20% to bottom 20% (HR80/20), and bottom 20% to middle 40% (HR20/50). PPV was calculated for the top 20% (PPV80) and top 5% (PPV95) of PHS as the fraction of individuals with elevated PSA that were diagnosed with clinically significant prostate cancer on biopsy. RESULTS: 166 SNPs had non-zero coefficients in the Cox model (PHS166). All HR metrics showed significant improvements for PHS166 compared to PHS46: HR95/50 increased from 3.72 to 5.09, HR80/20 increased from 6.12 to 9.45, and HR20/50 decreased from 0.41 to 0.34. By contrast, no significant differences were observed in PPV of PSA testing for clinically significant prostate cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating 120 additional SNPs (PHS166 vs PHS46) significantly improved HRs for prostate cancer, while PPV of PSA testing remained the same.