How to predict a high rate of inappropriateness for upper endoscopy in an endoscopic centre?

BACKGROUND: Inappropriateness of upper endoscopy (EGD) indication causes decreased diagnostic yield. Our aim of was to identify predictors of appropriateness rate for EGD among endoscopic centres. METHODS: A post-hoc analysis of two multicentre cross-sectional studies, including 6270 and 8252 patients consecutively referred to EGD in 44 (group A) and 55 (group B) endoscopic Italian centres in 2003 and 2007, respectively, was performed. A multiple forward stepwise regression was applied to group A, and independently validated in group B. A <70% threshold was adopted to define inadequate appropriateness rate clustered by centre. RESULTS: discrete variability of clustered appropriateness rates among the 44 group A centres was observed (median: 77%; range: 41-97%), and a <70% appropriateness rate was detected in 11 (25%). Independent predictors of centre appropriateness rate were: percentage of patients referred by general practitioners (GP), rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases, and academic status. For group B, sensitivity, specificity and area under receiver operating characteristic curve of the model in detecting centres with a <70% appropriateness rate were 54%, 93% and 0.72, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A simple predictive rule, based on rate of patients referred by GPs, rate of urgent examinations, prevalence of relevant diseases and academic status, identified a small subset of centres characterised by a high rate of inappropriateness. These centres may be presumed to obtain the largest benefit from targeted educational programs.

Assessment of the role of genetic polymorphism in venous thrombosis through artificial neural networks.

PURPOSE: To assess the role of genetic polymorphisms in venous thrombosis events (VTE) using Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), a model for solving non-linear problems frequently associated with complex biological systems, due to interactions between biological, genetic and environmental factors. METHODS: A database was generated from a case-control study of venous thrombosis, using 238 patients and 211 controls. The database of 64 variables included age, gender and a panel of 62 genetic variants. Three different ANNs were compared, with logistic regression for the accuracy of predicting cases and controls. RESULTS: ANNs yielded a better performance than the logistic regression algorithm. Indeed, through ANNs models, the 62 variables related to genetic variants were first reduced to a set of 9, and then of 3 (MTHFR 677 C/T, FV arg506gln, ICAM1 gly214arg). CONCLUSIONS: The findings of this study illustrate the power of ANN in evaluating multifactorial data, and show that the different sensitivities of the models of elaboration are related to the characteristics of the data. This may contribute to a better understanding of the role played by genetic polymorphisms in VTE, and help to define, if possible, a test panel of genetic variants to estimate an individual's probability of developing the disease.

An optimized experimental protocol based on neuro-evolutionary algorithms application to the classification of dyspeptic patients and to the prediction of the effectiveness of their treatment.

OBJECTIVE: This paper aims to present a specific optimized experimental protocol (EP) for classification and/or prediction problems. The neuro-evolutionary algorithms on which it is based and its application with two selected real cases are described in detail. The first application addresses the problem of classifying the functional (FD) or organic (OD) forms of dyspepsia; the second relates to the problem of predicting the 6-month follow-up outcome of dyspeptic patients treated by helicobacter pylori (HP) eradication therapy. METHODS AND MATERIAL: The database built by the multicentre observational study, performed in Italy by the NUD-look Study Group, provided the material studied: a collection of data from 861 patients with previously uninvestigated dyspepsia, being referred for upper gastrointestinal endoscopy to 42 Italian Endoscopic Services. The proposed EP makes use of techniques based on advanced neuro-evolutionary systems (NESs) and is structured in phases and steps. The use of specific input selection (IS) and training and testing (T and T) techniques together with genetic doping (GenD) algorithm is described in detail, as well as the steps taken in the two benchmark and optimization protocol phases. RESULTS: In terms of accuracy results, a value of 79.64% was achieved during optimization, with mean benchmark values of 64.90% for the linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and 68.15% for the multi layer perceptron (MLP), for the classification task. A value of 88.61% was achieved during optimization for the prediction task, with mean benchmark values of 49.32% for the LDA and 70.05% for the MLP. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed EP has led to the construction of inductors that are viable and usable on medical data which is representative but highly not linear. In particular, for the classification problem, these new inductors may be effectively used on the basal examination data to support doctors in deciding whether to avoid endoscopic examinations; whereas, in the prediction problem, they may support doctors' decisions about the advisability of eradication therapy. In both cases the variables selected indicate the possibility of reducing the data collection effort and also of providing information that can be used for general investigations on symptom relevance.

Improved artificial neural networks in prediction of malignancy of lesions in contrast-enhanced MR-mammography.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the capability of improved artificial neural networks (ANN) and additional novel training methods in distinguishing between benign and malignant breast lesions in contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance-mammography (MRM). A total of 604 histologically proven cases of contrast-enhanced lesions of the female breast at MRI were analyzed. Morphological, dynamic and clinical parameters were collected and stored in a database. The data set was divided into several groups using random or experimental methods [Training & Testing (T&T) algorithm] to train and test different ANNs. An additional novel computer program for input variable selection was applied. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated and compared with a statistical method and an expert radiologist. After optimization of the distribution of cases among the training and testing sets by the T & T algorithm and the reduction of input variables by the Input Selection procedure a highly sophisticated ANN achieved a sensitivity of 93.6% and a specificity of 91.9% in predicting malignancy of lesions within an independent prediction sample set. The best statistical method reached a sensitivity of 90.5% and a specificity of 68.9%. An expert radiologist performed better than the statistical method but worse than the ANN (sensitivity 92.1%, specificity 85.6%). Features extracted out of dynamic contrast-enhanced MRM and additional clinical data can be successfully analyzed by advanced ANNs. The quality of the resulting network strongly depends on the training methods, which are improved by the use of novel training tools. The best results of an improved ANN outperform expert radiologists.

Artificial neural network assessment of substitutive pharmacological treatments in hospitalised intravenous drug users.

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) provide better solutions than linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to problems of classification and estimation involving a large number of non-homogeneous (categorical and metric) variables. In this study, we compared the ability of traditional LDA and a feed-forward back-propagation (FF-BP) ANN with self-momentum to predict pharmacological treatments received by intravenous drug users (IDUs) hospitalised for coexisting medical illness. When medical staff considered detoxification appropriate they usually suggested methadone (MET) and (or) benzodiazepines (BDZ). Given four different treatment options (MET, BDZ, MET+BDZ, no treatment) as dependent variables and 38 independent variables, the FF-BP ANN provided the best prediction of the consultant's decision (overall accuracy: 62.7%). It achieved the highest level of predictive accuracy for the BDZ option (90.5%), the lowest for no treatment (29.6), often misclassifying no treatment as BDZ. The LDA yielded a lower mean accuracy (50.3%). When the untreated group was excluded, ANN improved its absolute recognition rate by only 1.2% and the BDZ group remained the best predicted. In contrast, LDA improved its absolute recognition rate from 50.3 to 58.9%, maximum 65.7% for the BDZ group. In conclusion, the FF-BP ANN was more accurate than the statistical model (discriminant analysis) in predicting the pharmacological treatment of IDUs.

Artificial neural networks for drug vulnerability recognition and dynamic scenarios simulation.

Semeion researchers have developed and used different kinds of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in order to process selected, "standard" data coming from drug users and from people who never used drugs before. In the first step a collection of 112 general variables, not traditionally connected to drug user's behavior, were collected from a sample of 545 people (223 heroin addicted and 322 non-users). Different types of ANNs were used to test the capability of the system to classify the drug users and the non-drug users correctly. A special ANN tool, created by Semeion, was also used to prune the number of the independent variables. The ANN selected for this first experiment was a Supervised Feed Forward Network, whose equations were enhanced by Semeion researchers. For the validation of the capability of generalization of the ANN, the Training-Testing protocol was used. This ANN was able, in the Testing phase, to classify approximately 95% of the sample with accuracy. A special sensitivity tool selected only 47 among the 112 independent variables as necessary to train the ANN. In the second step, different types of ANN were tested on the new 47 variables to decide which kind of ANN was better able to classify the sample. This benchmark included the following ANNs: a) Back Propagation with Soft Max; b) Learning Vector Quantization; c) Logicon Projection; d) Radial Basis Function; e) Squash (Semeion Network); f) Fuzzy Art Map; g) Modular Neural Network. In the third step a Constraint Satisfaction Network, specifically created by Semeion, was used to simulate a dynamic fuzzy map of the drug user's world; that is, which fuzzy, or approximate, variables are critical to decide the fuzzy membership of a subject from the fuzzy membership of the drug users to the fuzzy membership of non-users and vice versa.

Application of artificial neural networks to eating disorders.

An experimental application of Artificial Neural Networks to Eating Disorders is presented. The sample, composed of 172 cases (all women) collected at the Centre for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Eating Disorders of the 1st Medical Division of the St. Eugenio Hospital of Rome, was subdivided, on the basis of the diagnosis made by the specialist of the St. Eugenio, into four classes: Anorexia Nervosa (AN), Nervous Bulimia (NB), Binge Eating Disorders (BED) and Psychogenic Eating Disorders that are Not Otherwise Specified (PED-NOS). The data base was composed of 124 different variables: generic information, alimentary behavior, eventual treatment and hospitalization, substance use, menstrual cycles, weight and height, hematochemical and instrumental examinations, psychodiagnostic tests, etc. The goal of this experiment was to verify the accuracy of the Neural Networks in recognising anorexic and bulimic patients. This article describes 6 experiments, using a Feed Forward Neural Network, each one using different variables. Starting from only the generic variables (life styles, family environment, etc.) and hematoclinical and instrumental examinations, a Neural Networks provided 86.94% of the prediction precision. This work is meant to be a first contribution to creating diagnostic procedures for Eating Disorders, that would be simple and easy-to-use by professionals who are neither psychologists nor psychiatrists nor psychotherapists but who are, however, among the first to meet these patients and who are therefore called upon to give such patients the very first pieces of advice on seeking proper treatment.