Temporal validation of the Australian estimated post-transplant survival score.

AIMS: The Australian estimated post-transplant survival (EPTS-AU) prediction score was developed by re-fitting the United States of America EPTS, without diabetes, to the Australian and New Zealand kidney transplant population over 2002-2013. The EPTS-AU score incorporates age, previous transplantation and time on dialysis. Diabetes was excluded from the score, as this was not previously recorded in the Australian allocation system. In May 2021, the EPTS-AU prediction score was incorporated into the Australian kidney allocation algorithm to optimize utility for recipients (maximized benefit). We aimed to temporally validate the EPTS-AU prediction score to ensure it can be used for this purpose. METHODS: Using the Australia and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant (ANZDATA) Registry, we included adult recipients of deceased donor kidney-only transplants between 2014 and 2021. We constructed Cox models for patient survival. We assessed validation using measures of model fit (Akaike information criterion and misspecification), discrimination (Harrell's C statistic and Kaplan-Meier curves), and calibration (observed vs. predicted survival). RESULTS: Six thousand four hundred and two recipients were included in the analysis. The EPTS-AU had moderate discrimination with a C statistic of 0.69 (95% CI 0.67, 0.71), and clear delineation between Kaplan-Meier's survival curves of EPTS-AU. The EPTS was well calibrated with the predicted survivals equating with the observed survival outcomes for all prognostic groups. CONCLUSIONS: The EPTS-AU performs reasonably well in choosing between recipients (discrimination) and to predict a recipient's survival (calibration). Reassuringly, the score is functioning as intended to predict post-transplant survival for recipients as part of the national allocation algorithm.

Case study of tacrolimus as an effective treatment for idiopathic membranous glomerulonephritis in pregnancy.

BACKGROUND: Tacrolimus has been used in pregnant women following transplantation and for management of lupus nephritis. We report a case of successful control of nephrotic syndrome due to membranous glomerulonephritis during pregnancy using tacrolimus. CASE REPORT: A 26-year-old female presented with severe nephrotic syndrome in her first pregnancy. Post-partum renal biopsy confirmed idiopathic membranous glomerulonephritis. She had persistent proteinuria of 6 g/day with hypoalbuminaemia despite angiotensin receptor blockade. Treatment with tacrolimus monotherapy led to remission of proteinuria, three months prior to conceiving again. She maintained remission with tacrolimus therapy in pregnancy, resulting in a successful birth outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Membranous glomerulonephritis can be successfully and safely managed with tacrolimus monotherapy during pregnancy. This provides an alternative immunosuppressant with a favourable side effect profile suitable for use in women planning a pregnancy when other immunosuppressive drugs should be avoided.