ABSTRACT
Excess mortality is the difference between expected and observed mortality in a given period and has emerged as a leading measure of the overall impact of the Covid-19 pandemic that is not biased by differences in testing or cause-of-death assignment. Spatially and temporally granular estimates of excess mortality are needed to understand which areas have been most impacted by the pandemic, evaluate exacerbating and mitigating factors, and inform response efforts, including allocating resources to affected communities. We estimated all-cause excess mortality for the United States from March 2020 through February 2022 by county and month using a Bayesian hierarchical model trained on data from 2015 to 2019. An estimated 1,159,580 excess deaths occurred during the first two years of the pandemic (first: 620,872; second: 538,708). Overall, excess mortality decreased in large metropolitan counties, but increased in nonmetro counties, between the first and second years of the pandemic. Despite the initial concentration of mortality in large metropolitan Northeast counties, beginning in February 2021, nonmetro South counties had the highest cumulative relative excess mortality. These results highlight the need for investments in rural health as the pandemics disproportionate impact on rural areas continues to grow.
ABSTRACT
ObjectivesTo quantify changes in all-cause and cause-specific mortality by race and ethnicity between 2019 and 2020. MethodsUsing 2019 and 2020 provisional death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics and population estimates from the US Census Bureau, we estimate age-standardized death rates by race/ethnicity and attribute changes in mortality to various causes of death. We also examine how patterns of change across racial/ethnic groups vary by age and sex. ResultsCovid-19 death rates in 2020 were highest in the Hispanic community whereas Black individuals had the largest increase in all-cause mortality between 2019 and 2020. Increases in mortality from heart disease, diabetes, and external causes of death accounted for the adverse trend in all-cause mortality within the Black population. Percentage increases in all-cause mortality were similar for men and women and for ages 25-64 and 65+ for Black and White populations, but increases were greatest for working-aged men among the Hispanic population. ConclusionsExamining increases in non-Covid-19 causes of death is essential for fully capturing both the direct and indirect impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on racial/ethnic mortality disparities.
ABSTRACT
BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. has been largely monitored on the basis of death certificates containing reference to COVID-19. However, prior analyses reveal that a significant percentage of excess deaths associated with the pandemic were not directly assigned to COVID-19. MethodsIn the present study, we estimate a generalized linear model of expected mortality in 2020 based on historical trends in deaths by county of residence between 2011 and 2019. We use the results of the model to generate estimates of excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 for 1,470 county-sets in the U.S. representing 3,138 counties. ResultsDuring 2020, more than one-fourth of U.S. residents (91.2 million) lived in counties where less than 75% of excess deaths were assigned to COVID-19. Across the country, we estimated that 439,698 excess deaths occurred in 2020, among which 86.7% were assigned to COVID-19. Some regions (Mideast, Great Lakes, New England, and Far West) reported the most excess deaths in large central metros, whereas other regions (Southwest, Southeast, Plains, and Rocky Mountains) reported the highest excess mortality in nonmetro areas. The proportion assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in large central metro areas (79.3%) compared to medium or small metros (87.4%), nonmetro areas (89.4%) and large fringe metros (95.2%). Regionally, the proportion of excess deaths assigned to COVID-19 was lowest in the Southeast (81.1%), Far West (81.2%), Southwest (82.6%), and Rocky Mountains (85.2%). Across the regions, the number of excess deaths exceeded the number of directly assigned COVID-19 deaths in the majority of counties. The exception to this was in New England, which reported more directly assigned COVID-19 deaths than excess deaths in large central metro areas, large fringe metros, and medium or small metros. ConclusionsAcross the U.S., many counties had substantial numbers of excess deaths that were not accounted for in direct COVID-19 death counts. Estimates of excess mortality at the local level can inform the allocation of resources to areas most impacted by the pandemic and contribute to positive protective behavior feedback loops (i.e. increases in mask-wearing and vaccine uptake).
ABSTRACT
BackgroundCovid-19 excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the Covid-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in Covid-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to Covid-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics. Methods and FindingsIn this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct Covid-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in U.S. counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a ten week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more Covid-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and Covid-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to Covid-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than Covid-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of Covid-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics. ConclusionsIn this study, we found that direct Covid-19 death counts in the United States in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to Covid-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in Covid-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic. Authors SummaryO_ST_ABSWhy Was This Study Done?C_ST_ABSO_LIThe Covid-19 pandemic has resulted in excess mortality that would not have occurred in the absence of the pandemic. C_LIO_LIExcess deaths include deaths assigned to Covid-19 in official statistics as well as deaths that are not assigned to Covid-19 but are attributable directly or indirectly to Covid-19. C_LIO_LIWhile prior studies have identified significant racial and socioeconomic inequities in directly assigned Covid-19 deaths, few studies have documented how excess mortality in 2020 has differed across sociodemographic or health factors in the United States. C_LI What Did the Researchers Do and Find?O_LILeveraging data from 2,096 counties on Covid-19 and all-cause mortality, we assessed what percentage of excess deaths were not assigned to Covid-19 and examined variation in excess deaths by county characteristics. C_LIO_LIIn these counties, we found that for every 100 deaths directly assigned to Covid-19 in official statistics, an additional 20 deaths occurred that were not counted as direct Covid-19 deaths. C_LIO_LIThe proportion of excess deaths not counted as direct Covid-19 deaths was even higher in counties with lower average socioeconomic status, counties with more comorbidities, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents who were already at high risk of Covid-19 death based on direct counts, also reported a higher proportion of excess deaths not assigned to Covid-19. C_LI What Do These Findings Mean?O_LIDirect Covid-19 death counts significantly underestimate excess mortality in 2020. C_LIO_LIMonitoring excess mortality will be critical to gain a full picture of socioeconomic and racial inequities in mortality attributable to the Covid-19 pandemic. C_LIO_LITo prevent inequities in mortality from growing even larger, health equity must be prioritized in the policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic. C_LI
