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1.
Liver Int ; 44(1): 52-60, 2024 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37718515

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The path to hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination is complicated by individuals who become lost to follow-up (LTFU) during care, particularly before receiving effective HCV treatment. We aimed to determine factors contributing to LTFU and whether LTFU is associated with mortality. METHODS: In this secondary analysis, we constructed a database including individuals with HCV who were either LTFU (data from the nationwide HCV retrieval project, CELINE) or treated with directly acting antivirals (DAA) (data from Statistics Netherlands) between 2012 and 2019. This database was linked to mortality data from Statistics Netherlands. Determinants associated with being LTFU versus DAA-treated were assessed using logistic regression, and mortality rates were compared between groups using exponential survival models. These analyses were additionally stratified on calendar periods: 2012-2014, 2015-2017 and 2018-2019. RESULTS: About 254 individuals, LTFU and 5547 DAA-treated were included. Being institutionalized (OR = 5.02, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 3.29-7.65), household income below the social minimum (OR = 1.96, 95% CI = 1.25-3.06), receiving benefits (OR = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.20-2.52) and psychiatric comorbidity (OR = 1.51, 95% CI = 1.09-2.10) were associated with LTFU. Mortality rates were significantly higher in individuals LTFU compared to those DAA-treated (2.99 vs. 1.15/100 person-years (PY), p < .0001), while in those DAA-treated, mortality rates slowly increased between 2012-2014 (.22/100PY) and 2018-2019 (2.25/100PY). CONCLUSION: In the Netherlands, individuals who are incarcerated/institutionalized, with low household income, or with psychiatric comorbidities are prone to being LTFU, which is associated with higher mortality. HCV care needs to be adapted for these vulnerable individuals.


Subject(s)
Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Humans , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Cross-Sectional Studies , Follow-Up Studies , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology , Hepatitis C, Chronic/complications , Socioeconomic Factors
2.
Lancet Public Health ; 8(4): e294-e304, 2023 04.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36965984

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Individuals with HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) who remain untreated with direct-acting antivirals can contribute to HCV transmission and HCV-related mortality. We aimed to compare rates of uptake of direct-acting antivirals following unrestricted access to this treatment in high-income countries and examine factors associated with remaining untreated. METHODS: This multinational, prospective cohort study used data from the International Collaboration on Hepatitis C Elimination in HIV Cohorts (InCHEHC). We analysed data from nine observational cohorts participating in the InCHEHC, including data from six high-income countries (Australia, Canada, France, the Netherlands, Spain, and Switzerland). We included individuals aged 18 years and older, with HIV and HCV (ie, HCV-RNA positive without evidence of spontaneous clearance) during unrestricted access to interferon-free direct-acting antiviral treatment in each country. We calculated the cumulative proportion of participants who remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals, with follow-up starting after the date of unrestricted access or cohort inclusion, whichever occurred most recently. Factors associated with the commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment were assessed using competing-risks regression with the Fine-Gray method. FINDINGS: The date of unrestricted access to direct-acting antiviral treatment for people with HIV ranged from Nov 1, 2014, in France to Nov 1, 2017, in Switzerland. We included 4552 individuals with HIV-HCV, mainly men who have sex with men (MSM; n=2156 [47%]) and people who inject or have injected drugs (n=1453 [32%]). 1365 (30%) of 4552 participants remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals. For individuals treated with direct-acting antivirals, median time from start of follow-up to treatment was 5 months (IQR 2-12). For individuals who were not treated with direct-acting antivirals, median follow-up was 22 months (8-30). Being linked to care in Australia, France, or the Netherlands, on antiretroviral therapy, having undetectable HIV RNA, and shorter duration since first positive HCV test were independently associated with higher commencement rate of direct-acting antiviral treatment. Compared with MSM, male heterosexuals and females with unknown or other routes of HIV transmission (ie, neither injection drug use nor heterosexual transmission) had lower rates of commencement. INTERPRETATION: Despite unrestricted access, almost a third of individuals with HIV-HCV remained untreated with direct-acting antivirals during follow-up, with variation in commencement rate of HCV treatment between countries and key populations. Increased efforts are required to reach the remaining individuals with HIV who are HCV-viraemic to achieve HIV-HCV micro-elimination. FUNDING: None.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Female , Humans , Male , Hepacivirus/genetics , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Homosexuality, Male , Prospective Studies , Hepatitis C, Chronic/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , RNA/therapeutic use
3.
Haemophilia ; 29(1): 106-114, 2023 Jan.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36184751

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: With availability of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), most persons with inherited bleeding disorders are currently cured of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. The risk of liver-related complications following HCV cure has not been reported for this population. AIM: Reporting liver-related complications during long-term chronic HCV infection and following sustained virological response (SVR) in this population. METHODS: Retrospective follow-up of a prospective single-centre cohort of HCV antibody-positive persons with inherited bleeding disorders. Primary endpoint was liver-related complications [hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), decompensated cirrhosis, bleeding gastroesophageal varices]. Liver-related complications were reported separately during chronic HCV and following SVR, stratified for interferon-based and DAA-based SVR. RESULTS: In total 309/381 (81%) HCV antibody-positive individuals developed chronic HCV infection. Median follow-up was 44 years [interquartile range (IQR): 34-50]. Liver-related complications occurred in 36/309 (12%) of individuals with chronic HCV infection after median 31 years of chronic infection. Of 199 individuals with SVR, 97 were cured with interferon-based regimens and 102 with DAA after median infection durations of 29 and 45 years, respectively. At end of follow-up, respectively, 21% and 42% had advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. Post-SVR, seven (4%) individuals had a liver-related complication, mainly HCC (n = 4). Incidence of liver-related complications per 100 patient-years post-SVR follow-up was .2 for interferon-cured and 1.0 for DAA-cured individuals (p = .01). CONCLUSION: Successful HCV treatment does not eliminate the risk of liver-related complications in persons with inherited bleeding disorders. Due to higher baseline risk, incidence was higher after DAA than interferon-based SVR. We advise continuing HCC surveillance post-SVR in all with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Liver Neoplasms , Humans , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Liver Neoplasms/complications , Liver Neoplasms/epidemiology , Retrospective Studies , Prospective Studies , Interferons/therapeutic use , Liver Cirrhosis/complications , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepacivirus/genetics
4.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 9(10): ofac508, 2022 Oct.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36320198

ABSTRACT

Background: Several studies have reported suboptimal efficacy of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) to treat hepatitis C virus (HCV) subtypes endemic to sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Southeastern Asia (SEA). The extent of this issue in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)/HCV from SSA or SEA residing in Europe is unknown. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed data from several prospective European cohorts of people living with HIV. We included individuals with HIV/HCV who originated from SSA or SEA, were treated with interferon-free DAAs, and had an available HCV RNA result ≥12 weeks after the end of treatment. The primary outcome was sustained virological response at least 12 weeks after the end of treatment (SVR12). Results: Of the 3293 individuals with HIV/HCV treated with DAA and with available SVR12 data, 142 were from SSA (n = 64) and SEA (n = 78). SVR12 was achieved by 60 (94% [95% confidence interval {CI}, 86%-98%]) individuals from SSA and 76 (97% [95% CI, 92%-99%]) from SEA. The genotypes of the 6 individuals failing DAA treatment were 2, 3a, 3h, 4a, 4c, and 6j. For 2 of the 4 unsuccessfully treated individuals with available sequence data at treatment failure, NS5A resistance-associated substitutions were present (30R/93S in an individual with genotype 4c and 31M in an individual with genotype 6j). Conclusions: SVR12 rates were high in individuals with HIV/HCV residing in Europe and originating from regions where intrinsically NS5A-resistant HCV strains are endemic. HCV elimination for this population in Europe is unlikely to be hampered by suboptimal DAA efficacy.

5.
Eur J Intern Med ; 101: 93-97, 2022 07.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35527178

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The number of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV)-infected patients who have been lost to follow-up (LTFU) is high and threatens HCV elimination. Micro-elimination focusing on the LTFU population is a promising strategy for low-endemic countries like the Netherlands (HCV prevalence 0.16%). We therefore initiated a nationwide retrieval project in the Netherlands targeting LTFU HCV patients. METHODS: LTFU HCV-infected patients were identified using laboratory and patient records. Subsequently, the Municipal Personal Records database was queried to identify individuals eligible for retrieval, defined as being alive and with a known address in the Netherlands. These individuals were invited for re-evaluation. The primary endpoint was the number of patients successfully re-linked to care. RESULTS: Retrieval was implemented in 45 sites in the Netherlands. Of 20,183 ever-diagnosed patients, 13,198 (65%) were known to be cured or still in care and 1,537 (8%) were LTFU and eligible for retrieval. Contact was established with 888/1,537 (58%) invited individuals; 369 (24%) had received prior successful treatment elsewhere, 131 (9%) refused re-evaluation and 251 (16%) were referred for re-evaluation. Finally, 219 (14%) were re-evaluated, of whom 172 (79%) approved additional data collection. HCV-RNA was positive in 143/172 (83%), of whom 38/143 (27%) had advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis and 123/143 (86%) commenced antiviral treatment. CONCLUSION: Our nationwide micro-elimination strategy accurately mapped the ever-diagnosed HCV population in the Netherlands and indicates that 27% of LTFU HCV-infected patients re-linked to care have advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis. This emphasizes the potential value of systematic retrieval for HCV elimination.


Subject(s)
Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Hepacivirus/genetics , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology , Humans , Liver Cirrhosis/drug therapy , Lost to Follow-Up , Netherlands/epidemiology
6.
AIDS ; 36(6): 773-783, 2022 05 01.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34999607

ABSTRACT

OBJECTIVE: To describe hepatitis C virus (HCV)-viremia prevalence and barriers to direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment during unrestricted access to DAA in a nationwide cohort of people with HIV (PWH). DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data. METHODS: We calculated yearly HCV-viremia prevalence as proportion of HCV RNA-positive individuals ever HCV-tested. We then included HCV-viremic individuals with ≥1 visit during the era of universal DAA-access (database lock = December 31, 2018). Based on their last visit, individuals were grouped as DAA-treated or -untreated. Variables associated with lack of DAA-treatment were assessed using targeted maximum likelihood estimation. In November 2020, physicians of DAA-untreated individuals completed a questionnaire on barriers to DAA-uptake and onward HCV-transmission risk. RESULTS: Among 25 196 PWH, HCV-viremia decreased from 4% to 5% between 2000 and 2014 to 0.6% in 2019. Being DAA-untreated was associated with HIV-transmission route other than men who have sex with men, older age, infrequent follow-up, severe alcohol use, detectable HIV-RNA, HCV-genotype 3, and larger hospital size. With universal DAA-access, 72 of 979 HCV-viremic individuals remained DAA-untreated at their last visit. Of these, 39 were no longer in care, 27 remained DAA-untreated in care, and six initiated DAA since database lock. Most common physician-reported barriers to DAA-uptake were patient refusal (20/72, 28%) and infrequent visit attendance (19/72, 26%). Only one DAA-untreated individual in care was engaging in activities associated with onward HCV-transmission. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of HCV-viremic PWH is low in the Netherlands, coinciding with widespread DAA-uptake. Barriers to DAA-uptake appear mostly patient-related, while HCV-transmission seems unlikely from the few DAA-untreated in care.


Subject(s)
HIV Infections , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Sexual and Gender Minorities , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , HIV Infections/complications , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , Hepacivirus/genetics , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C/epidemiology , Hepatitis C, Chronic/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/epidemiology , Homosexuality, Male , Humans , Male , Netherlands/epidemiology , Prevalence , RNA/therapeutic use , Retrospective Studies , Viremia/drug therapy
7.
Res Pract Thromb Haemost ; 5(8): e12616, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34870068

ABSTRACT

INTRODUCTION: Persons with hemophilia and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection have a lower health-related quality of life (HRQoL) than those never HCV infected. However, it is unknown whether HRQoL after HCV eradication is comparable to individuals never HCV infected. We aimed to compare HRQoL between HCV-cured and never chronically HCV-infected persons with hemophilia. METHODS: All persons with hemophilia in the Netherlands were invited for a nationwide study conducted in 2018-2019. For the current analysis, participants born before 1992 with data on HRQoL and HCV status were included. HCV status was collected from medical records. HRQoL was measured by RAND-36 questionnaire, with a minimally important difference set at 4.0 points. Multivariable linear regression was used to adjust for age, hemophilia severity, HIV status, and self-reported joint impairment. RESULTS: In total, 486 persons were eligible; 180 were HCV cured and 306 never chronically HCV infected. Compared with those never HCV infected, HCV-cured individuals were older (57 vs. 53 years), more often had severe hemophilia (67% vs. 21%), and reported more impaired joints (median 3 vs. 0). Compared with those never HCV infected, adjusted RAND-36 domain scores of HCV-cured individuals cured were lower on all RAND-36 domains except Pain, ranging from a difference of 4.5 (95% CI, -8.8 to -0.3) for Physical functioning to 11.3 (95% CI, -19.4 to -3.1) for Role limitations due to physical problems. CONCLUSION: Despite effective HCV treatment, HRQoL of HCV-cured persons with hemophilia is still lower than HRQoL of those never chronically HCV-infected on all RAND-36 domains. This implies that careful psychosocial follow-up and support are indicated.

8.
J Clin Med ; 10(19)2021 Sep 30.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34640576

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The Netherlands strives for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination, in accordance with the World Health Organization targets. An accurate estimate when HCV elimination will be reached is elusive. We have embarked on a nationwide HCV elimination project (CELINE) that allowed us to harvest detailed data on the Dutch HCV epidemic. This study aims to provide a well-supported timeline towards HCV elimination in The Netherlands. METHODS: A previously published Markov model was used, adopting published data and unpublished CELINE project data. Two main scenarios were devised. In the Status Quo scenario, 2020 diagnosis and treatment levels remained constant in subsequent years. In the Gradual Decline scenario, an annual decrease of 10% in both diagnoses and treatments was implemented, starting in 2020. WHO incidence target was disregarded, due to low HCV incidence in The Netherlands (≤5 per 100,000). RESULTS: Following the Status Quo and Gradual Decline scenarios, The Netherlands would meet WHO's elimination targets by 2027 and 2032, respectively. From 2015 to 2030, liver-related mortality would be reduced by 97% in the Status Quo and 93% in the Gradual Decline scenario. Compared to the Status Quo scenario, the Gradual Decline scenario would result in 12 excess cases of decompensated cirrhosis, 18 excess cases of hepatocellular carcinoma, and 20 excess cases of liver-related death from 2020-2030. CONCLUSIONS: The Netherlands is on track to reach HCV elimination by 2030. However, it is vital that HCV elimination remains high on the agenda to ensure adequate numbers of patients are being diagnosed and treated.

9.
Eur J Intern Med ; 94: 6-14, 2021 Dec.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-34563447

ABSTRACT

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and variceal bleeding are among the most common causes of liver-related mortality in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV)-induced cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend HCC and gastroesophageal varices (GEV) surveillance in patients with HCV infection and cirrhosis. However, since the recent introduction of direct-acting antivirals, most patients with cirrhosis are now cured of their chronic HCV infection. As virological cure is considered to substantially reduce the risk of cirrhosis-related complications, this review discusses the current literature concerning the surveillance of HCC and GEV in patients with HCV-induced cirrhosis with a focus on the setting following sustained virological response.


Subject(s)
Carcinoma, Hepatocellular , Esophageal and Gastric Varices , Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Liver Neoplasms , Varicose Veins , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/epidemiology , Esophageal and Gastric Varices/drug therapy , Esophageal and Gastric Varices/epidemiology , Esophageal and Gastric Varices/etiology , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/epidemiology , Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage/etiology , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C/complications , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/complications , Hepatitis C, Chronic/drug therapy , Humans , Liver Cirrhosis/complications , Liver Cirrhosis/drug therapy , Liver Neoplasms/epidemiology , Varicose Veins/drug therapy
11.
Br J Haematol ; 195(2): 174-185, 2021 10.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33955555

ABSTRACT

The introduction of clotting factor concentrates has substantially improved the lives of people with clotting factor deficiencies. Unfortunately, the transmission of blood-borne viral infections through these plasma-derived products led to a huge epidemic of human immunodeficiency virus and viral hepatitis in people with haemophilia (PWH). In a significant proportion of PWH exposed to these viruses, the ensuing decades-long chronic infection resulted in excess morbidity and mortality. Fortunately, developments in the safety of blood products, as well as vaccination and highly effective antiviral treatments have improved the prospects of PWH. The present article reviews the background of the viral hepatitis epidemic in PWH, the natural history of hepatitis B and C infections and their long-term management.


Subject(s)
Blood-Borne Infections/prevention & control , HIV Infections/prevention & control , Hemophilia A/therapy , Hepatitis, Viral, Human/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , Aged , Aged, 80 and over , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Blood Coagulation Factors/therapeutic use , Blood-Borne Infections/etiology , Blood-Borne Infections/transmission , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/complications , Carcinoma, Hepatocellular/epidemiology , Disease Management , HIV/isolation & purification , HIV Infections/drug therapy , HIV Infections/epidemiology , HIV Infections/transmission , Hemophilia A/complications , Hemophilia A/epidemiology , Hepatitis, Viral, Human/complications , Hepatitis, Viral, Human/drug therapy , Hepatitis, Viral, Human/transmission , Humans , Liver Neoplasms/pathology , Liver Transplantation/adverse effects , Middle Aged , Morbidity/trends , Mortality/trends , Persistent Infection , Vaccination/methods , Young Adult
12.
Open Forum Infect Dis ; 8(2): ofab006, 2021 Feb.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-33614815

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: The majority of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections are found in low- and middle-income countries, which harbor many region-specific HCV subtypes. Nevertheless, direct-acting antiviral (DAA) trials have almost exclusively been conducted in high-income countries, where mainly epidemically spread HCV subtypes are present. Recently, several studies have demonstrated suboptimal DAA efficacy for certain nonepidemic subtypes, which could hamper global HCV elimination. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate DAA efficacy in patients treated for a nonepidemic HCV genotype infection in the Netherlands. METHODS: We performed a nationwide retrospective study including patients treated with interferon-free DAAs for an HCV genotype other than 1a/1b/2a/2b/3a/4a/4d. The genotype was determined by NS5B region phylogenetic analysis. The primary end point was SVR-12. If stored samples were available, NS5A and NS5B sequences were obtained for resistance-associated substitutions (RAS) evaluation. RESULTS: We included 160 patients, mainly infected with nonepidemic genotype 2 (41%) and 4 (31%) subtypes. Most patients were from Africa (45%) or South America (24%); 51 (32%) were cirrhotic. SVR-12 was achieved in 92% (140/152) of patients with available SVR-12 data. Only 73% (8/11) genotype 3-infected patients achieved SVR-12, the majority being genotype 3b patients with 63% (5/8) SVR. Regardless of SVR, all genotype 3b patients had 30K and 31M RAS. CONCLUSIONS: The DAA efficacy we observed in most nonepidemic genotypes in the Netherlands seems reassuring. However, the low SVR-12 rate in subtype 3b infections is alarming, especially as it is common in several HCV-endemic countries. Alongside earlier results, our results indicate that a remaining challenge for global HCV elimination is confirming and monitoring DAA efficacy in nonepidemic genotypes.

13.
BMJ Open Gastroenterol ; 7(1): e000396, 2020.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32377367

ABSTRACT

Background: The Netherlands has a low hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence, estimated at 0.16%. Previous studies have shown that up to 30% of the diagnosed HCV population in the Netherlands has been lost to follow-up (LTFU). Retrieval of these patients could halt progression of liver disease in infected patients, reduce the number of infected individuals and limit HCV transmission. Several regional Dutch retrieval projects have already been executed, which demonstrated that retrieval is feasible. Therefore, we initiated a nationwide retrieval project, aiming to achieve microelimination in previously diagnosed but LTFU patients with chronic HCV through retrieval. Methods: Laboratory records will be used to identify possible patients with chronic hepatitis C, defined as either a positive most recent HCV RNA or positive HCV antibodies without known RNA result. Reviewing patient records and obtaining current contact information from municipality databases will identify LTFU patients who are eligible for retrieval. These patients will be invited for outpatient clinic care. The primary outcome of the study is the total number of LTFU patients who have been successfully linked to care. Discussion: Hepatitis C ELimination In the NEtherlands (CELINE) is within the remit of WHO elimination targets and the Dutch National Hepatitis Plan. The methodology of CELINE is based on previously conducted regional retrieval projects and is designed to overcome some of their limitations. After ethical approval was obtained in 2018, the first centre initiated retrieval in 2018 and the project is expected to finish in 2021. Trial registration number: NCT04208035.


Subject(s)
Hepatitis C, Chronic , Hepatitis C , Antiviral Agents/therapeutic use , Hepacivirus , Hepatitis C/drug therapy , Hepatitis C, Chronic/diagnosis , Humans , Lost to Follow-Up , Netherlands/epidemiology
14.
HPB (Oxford) ; 20(9): 809-814, 2018 09.
Article in English | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-29678364

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Several studies advise the use of risk models when counseling patients for hepato-pancreato-biliary (HPB) surgery, but studies comparing these models to the surgeons' assessment are lacking. The aim of this study was to assess whether risk prediction models outperform surgeons' assessment for the risk of complications in HPB surgery. METHODS: This prospective study included adult patients scheduled for HPB surgery in three centers in the UK and the Netherlands. Primary outcome was the rate of postoperative major complications. Surgeons assessed the risk prior to surgery while blinded for the formal risk scores. Risk prediction models were retrieved via a systematic review and risk scores were calculated. For each model, discrimination and calibration were evaluated. RESULTS: Overall, 349 patients were included. The rate of major complications was 27% and in-hospital mortality 3%. Surgeons' assessment resulted in an AUC of 0.64; 0.71 for liver and 0.56 for pancreas surgery (P = 0.020). The AUCs for nine existing risk prediction models ranged between 0.57 and 0.73 for liver surgery and between 0.51 and 0.57 for pancreas surgery. CONCLUSION: In HPB surgery, existing risk prediction models do not outperform surgeons' assessment. Surgeons' assessment outperforms most risk prediction models for liver surgery although both have a poor predictive performance for pancreas surgery. REGISTRATION INFORMATION: REC reference number (13/SC/0135); IRAS ID (119370). TRIALREGISTER.NL: NTR4649.


Subject(s)
Decision Support Techniques , Digestive System Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Health Knowledge, Attitudes, Practice , Judgment , Liver/surgery , Pancreas/surgery , Postoperative Complications/etiology , Surgeons/psychology , Aged , Biliary Tract Surgical Procedures/adverse effects , Clinical Decision-Making , Digestive System Surgical Procedures/mortality , Female , Hospital Mortality , Humans , Male , Middle Aged , Netherlands , Patient Selection , Postoperative Complications/mortality , Predictive Value of Tests , Prospective Studies , Reproducibility of Results , Risk Assessment , Risk Factors , Treatment Outcome , United Kingdom
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