Trapped in Place? Segmented Resilience to Hurricanes in the Gulf Coast, 1970-2005.

Hurricanes pose a continuing hazard to populations in coastal regions. This study estimates the impact of hurricanes on population change in the years 1970-2005 in the U.S. Gulf Coast region. Geophysical models are used to construct a unique data set that simulates the spatial extent and intensity of wind damage and storm surge from the 32 hurricanes that struck the region in this period. Multivariate spatial time-series models are used to estimate the impacts of hurricanes on population change. Population growth is found to be reduced significantly for up to three successive years after counties experience wind damage, particularly at higher levels of damage. Storm surge is associated with reduced population growth in the year after the hurricane. Model extensions show that change in the white and young adult population is more immediately and strongly affected than is change for blacks and elderly residents. Negative effects on population are stronger in counties with lower poverty rates. The differentiated impact of hurricanes on different population groups is interpreted as segmented withdrawal-a form of segmented resilience in which advantaged population groups are more likely to move out of or avoid moving into harm's way while socially vulnerable groups have fewer choices.

Multiple program participation and exits from food stamps among elders.

This article uses population-level administrative data from Rhode Island's Food Stamp Program to examine exits from the Food Stamp Program by elders. Multivariate event history models estimate the relations of multiple program participation and the timing of eligibility reviews to the probability of exiting food stamps. Results suggest that elders who are age 65 or older and who receive both Supplemental Security Income and food stamps have a higher probability of exiting the Food Stamp Program than do elders who receive only food stamps. The timing of eligibility reviews is also found to be positively associated with the probability of exit from food stamps. This article is argued to extend conceptual models of the determinants of food stamp exits.