ABSTRACT
We model COVID-19 data for 89 nations and US states with a recently developed formalism that describes mathematically any pattern of growth with the minimum number of parameters. The results show that the disease has a typical duration of 18 days, with a significant increase in fatality when it lasts longer than about 4 months. Searching for correlations between "flattening of the curve" and preventive public policies, we find strong statistical evidence for the impact of the first implemented policy on decreasing the pandemic growth rate; a delay of one week in implementation nearly triples the size of the infected population, on average. Without any government action, the initial outburst still slows down after 36 days, possibly thanks to changes in public behavior in response to the pandemic toll. Stay-at-home (lockdown) was not the first policy of any sample member, and we could not find statistically meaningful evidence for its added impact, similar to a recent study that employed an entirely different approach. However, lockdown was mostly imposed only shortly before the exponential rise was arrested by other measures, too late for a meaningful impact. A third of the sample members that did implement lockdown imposed it only after the outburst had already started to slow down. The possibility remains that lockdown might have significantly shortened the initial exponential rise had it been employed as first resort rather than last.
ABSTRACT
Type Ia supernovae arise from the thermonuclear explosion of white-dwarf stars that have cores of carbon and oxygen. The uniformity of their light curves makes these supernovae powerful cosmological distance indicators, but there have long been debates about exactly how their explosion is triggered and what kind of companion stars are involved. For example, the recent detection of the early ultraviolet pulse of a peculiar, subluminous type Ia supernova has been claimed as evidence for an interaction between a red-giant or a main-sequence companion and ejecta from a white-dwarf explosion. Here we report observations of a prominent but red optical flash that appears about half a day after the explosion of a type Ia supernova. This supernova shows hybrid features of different supernova subclasses, namely a light curve that is typical of normal-brightness supernovae, but with strong titanium absorption, which is commonly seen in the spectra of subluminous ones. We argue that this early flash does not occur through previously suggested mechanisms such as the companion-ejecta interaction. Instead, our simulations show that it could occur through detonation of a thin helium shell either on a near-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf, or on a sub-Chandrasekhar-mass white dwarf merging with a less-massive white dwarf. Our finding provides evidence that one branch of previously proposed explosion models-the helium-ignition branch-does exist in nature, and that such a model may account for the explosions of white dwarfs in a mass range wider than previously supposed.
ABSTRACT
Gravitational lensing is a powerful tool for the study of the distribution of dark matter in the Universe. The cold-dark-matter model of the formation of large-scale structures (that is, clusters of galaxies and even larger assemblies) predicts the existence of quasars gravitationally lensed by concentrations of dark matter so massive that the quasar images would be split by over 7 arcsec. Numerous searches for large-separation lensed quasars have, however, been unsuccessful. All of the roughly 70 lensed quasars known, including the first lensed quasar discovered, have smaller separations that can be explained in terms of galaxy-scale concentrations of baryonic matter. Although gravitationally lensed galaxies with large separations are known, quasars are more useful cosmological probes because of the simplicity of the resulting lens systems. Here we report the discovery of a lensed quasar, SDSS J1004 + 4112, which has a maximum separation between the components of 14.62 arcsec. Such a large separation means that the lensing object must be dominated by dark matter. Our results are fully consistent with theoretical expectations based on the cold-dark-matter model.
