How many people will need palliative care in Scotland by 2040? A mixed-method study of projected palliative care need and recommendations for service delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate future palliative care need and complexity of need in Scotland, and to identify priorities for future service delivery. DESIGN: We estimated the prevalence of palliative care need by analysing the proportion of deaths from defined chronic progressive illnesses. We described linear projections up to 2040 using national death registry data and official mortality forecasts. An expert consultation and subsequent online consensus survey generated recommendations on meeting future palliative care need. SETTING: Scotland, population of 5.4 million. PARTICIPANTS: All decedents in Scotland over 11 years (2007 to 2017). The consultation had 34 participants; 24 completed the consensus survey. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: Estimates of past and future palliative care need in Scotland from 2007 up to 2040. Multimorbidity was operationalised as two or more registered causes of death from different disease groups (cancer, organ failure, dementia, other). Consultation and survey data were analysed descriptively. RESULTS: We project that by 2040, the number of people requiring palliative care will increase by at least 14%; and by 20% if we factor in multimorbidity. The number of people dying from multiple diseases associated with different disease groups is projected to increase from 27% of all deaths in 2017 to 43% by 2040. To address increased need and complexity, experts prioritised sustained investment in a national digital platform, roll-out of integrated electronic health and social care records; and approaches that remain person-centred. CONCLUSIONS: By 2040 more people in Scotland are projected to die with palliative care needs, and the complexity of need will increase markedly. Service delivery models must adapt to serve growing demand and complexity associated with dying from multiple diseases from different disease groups. We need sustained investment in secure, accessible, integrated and person-centred health and social care digital systems, to improve care coordination and optimise palliative care for people across care settings.

A comparison of outcomes in morbidly obese, obese and non-obese patients undergoing primary total knee and total hip arthroplasty.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is a growing public health issue with the prevalence of morbid obesity, (Body Mass Index (BMI) ≥ 40 kg/m2) increasing. There is some evidence these patients have more peri- and post-operative complications and poorer outcomes when undergoing arthroplasty procedures. This audit aimed to determine and compare the outcomes of non-obese, obese and morbidly obese patients undergoing arthroplasty at our institution. METHOD: This was a retrospective audit of patients from our institution who had undergone total knee (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA) in 2009. Data collected were: age, gender, BMI, length of stay (LOS), Oxford knee or hip score (OKS/OHS), satisfaction and complications up to two years post operation. Patients were divided into three groups: BMI < 30, BMI 30-40 and BMI > 40. Outcomes for each BMI group were compared. RESULTS: 1014 TKA and 906 THA operations were included. When compared to obese and non-obese patients, morbidly obese patients undergoing TKA had a mean LOS one day longer, a mean OKS four points lower and higher rates of postoperative problems, 37% vs. 21%. For THA patients there was no difference in LOS, OHS score was two points lower for each increasing BMI category and postoperative problems increase from 25% for non-obese to 31% for obese and 38% for morbidly obese patients. CONCLUSION: These results will be useful in informing obese patients of their potential outcomes following TKA or THA. These patients can then make a more informed choice before proceeding with arthroplasty.