Convergence and divergence emerging in climatic controls of polynomial trends for northern ecosystem productivity over 2000-2018.

Recent rapid warming has caused uneven impacts on the composition, structure, and functioning of northern ecosystems. It remains unknown how climatic drivers control linear and non-linear trends in ecosystem productivity. Based on a plant phenology index (PPI) product at a spatial resolution of 0.05° over 2000-2018, we used an automated polynomial fitting scheme to detect and characterize trend types (i.e., polynomial trends and no-trends) in the yearly-integrated PPI (PPIINT) for northern (> 30°N) ecosystems and their dependence on climatic drivers and ecosystem types. The averaged slope for the linear trends (p < 0.05) of PPIINT was positive across all the ecosystems, among which deciduous broadleaved forests and evergreen needle-leaved forests (ENF) showed the highest and lowest mean slopes, respectively. More than 50% of the pixels in ENF, arctic and boreal shrublands, and permanent wetlands (PW) had linear trends. A large fraction of PW also showed quadratic and cubic trends. These trend patterns agreed well with estimates of global vegetation productivity based on solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence. Across all the biomes, PPIINT in pixels with linear trends showed lower mean values and higher partial correlation coefficients with temperature or precipitation than in pixels without linear trends. Overall, our study revealed the emergence of latitudinal convergence and divergence in climatic controls on the linear and non-linear trends of PPIINT, implying that northern shifts of vegetation and climate change may potentially increase the non-linear nature of climatic controls on ecosystem productivity. These results can improve our understanding and prediction of climate-induced changes in plant phenology and productivity and facilitate sustainable management of ecosystems by accounting for their resilience and vulnerability to future climate change.

A model of wild bee populations accounting for spatial heterogeneity and climate-induced temporal variability of food resources at the landscape level.

The viability of wild bee populations and the pollination services that they provide are driven by the availability of food resources during their activity period and within the surroundings of their nesting sites. Changes in climate and land use influence the availability of these resources and are major threats to declining bee populations. Because wild bees may be vulnerable to interactions between these threats, spatially explicit models of population dynamics that capture how bee populations jointly respond to land use at a landscape scale and weather are needed. Here, we developed a spatially and temporally explicit theoretical model of wild bee populations aiming for a middle ground between the existing mapping of visitation rates using foraging equations and more refined agent-based modeling. The model is developed for Bombus sp. and captures within-season colony dynamics. The model describes mechanistically foraging at the colony level and temporal population dynamics for an average colony at the landscape level. Stages in population dynamics are temperature-dependent triggered by a theoretical generalized seasonal progression, which can be informed by growing degree days. The purpose of the LandscapePhenoBee model is to evaluate the impact of system changes and within-season variability in resources on bee population sizes and crop visitation rates. In a simulation study, we used the model to evaluate the impact of the shortage of food resources in the landscape arising from extreme drought events in different types of landscapes (ranging from different proportions of semi-natural habitats and early and late flowering crops) on bumblebee populations.

Weak population genetic structure in Eurasian spruce bark beetle over large regional scales in Sweden.

The Eurasian spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, is a major pest, capable of killing spruce forests during large population outbreaks. Recorded dispersal distances of individual beetles are typically within hundreds of meters or a few kilometers. However, the connectivity between populations at larger distances and longer time spans and how this is affected by the habitat is less studied, despite its importance for understanding at which distances local outbreaks may spread. Previous population genetic studies in I. typographus typically used low resolution markers. Here, we use genome-wide data to assess population structure and connectivity of I. typographus in Sweden. We used 152 individuals from 19 population samples, distributed over 830 km from Strömsund (63° 46' 8″ N) in the north to Nyteboda (56° 8' 50″ N) in the south, to capture processes at a large regional scale, and a transect sampling design adjacent to a recent outbreak to capture processes at a smaller scale (76 km). Using restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RADseq) markers capturing 1409-1997 SNPs throughout the genome, we document a weak genetic structure over the large scale, potentially indicative of high connectivity with extensive gene flow. No differentiation was detected at the smaller scale. We find indications of isolation-by-distance both for relative (F ST) and absolute divergence (Dxy). The two northernmost populations are most differentiated from the remaining populations, and diverge in parallel to the southern populations for a set of outlier loci. In conclusion, the population structure of I. typographus in Sweden is weak, suggesting a high capacity to disperse and establish outbreak populations in new territories.

Bark beetles as lidar targets and prospects of photonic surveillance.

Forestry is raising concern about the outbreaks of European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, causing extensive damage to the spruce forest and timber values. Precise monitoring of these beetles is a necessary step towards preventing outbreaks. Current commercial monitoring methods are catch-based and lack in both temporal and spatial resolution. In this work, light scattering from beetles is characterized, and the feasibility of entomological lidar as a tool for long-term monitoring of bark beetles is explored. Laboratory optical properties, wing thickness, and wingbeat frequency of bark beetles are reported, and these parameters can infer target identity in lidar data. Lidar results from a Swedish forest with controlled bark beetle release event are presented. The capability of lidar to simultaneously monitor both insects and a pheromone plume mixed with chemical smoke governing the dispersal of many insects is demonstrated. In conclusion, entomological lidar is a promising tool for monitoring bark beetles.

New satellite-based estimates show significant trends in spring phenology and complex sensitivities to temperature and precipitation at northern European latitudes.

Recent climate warming has altered plant phenology at northern European latitudes, but conclusions regarding the spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate are still challenging as quantitative estimates are strongly diverging. To generate consistent estimates of broad-scale spatially continuous spring plant phenology at northern European latitudes (> 50° N) from 2000 to 2016, we used a novel vegetation index, the plant phenology index (PPI), derived from MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. To obtain realistic and strong estimates, the phenology trends and their relationships with temperature and precipitation over the past 17 years were analyzed using a panel data method. We found that in the studied region the start of the growing season (SOS) has on average advanced by 0.30 day year-1. The SOS showed an overall advancement rate of 2.47 day °C-1 to spring warming, and 0.18 day cm-1 to decreasing precipitation in spring. The previous winter and summer temperature had important effects on the SOS but were spatially heterogeneous. Overall, the onset of SOS was delayed 0.66 day °C-1 by winter warming and 0.56 day °C-1 by preceding summer warming. The precipitation in winter and summer influenced the SOS in a relatively weak and complex manner. The findings indicate rapid recent phenological changes driven by combined seasonal climates in northern Europe. Previously unknown spatial patterns of phenological change and relationships with climate drivers are presented that improve our capacity to understand and foresee future climate effects on vegetation.

Trends and uncertainties in budburst projections of Norway spruce in Northern Europe.

Budburst is regulated by temperature conditions, and a warming climate is associated with earlier budburst. A range of phenology models has been developed to assess climate change effects, and they tend to produce different results. This is mainly caused by different model representations of tree physiology processes, selection of observational data for model parameterization, and selection of climate model data to generate future projections. In this study, we applied (i) Bayesian inference to estimate model parameter values to address uncertainties associated with selection of observational data, (ii) selection of climate model data representative of a larger dataset, and (iii) ensembles modeling over multiple initial conditions, model classes, model parameterizations, and boundary conditions to generate future projections and uncertainty estimates. The ensemble projection indicated that the budburst of Norway spruce in northern Europe will on average take place 10.2 ± 3.7 days earlier in 2051-2080 than in 1971-2000, given climate conditions corresponding to RCP 8.5. Three provenances were assessed separately (one early and two late), and the projections indicated that the relationship among provenance will remain also in a warmer climate. Structurally complex models were more likely to fail predicting budburst for some combinations of site and year than simple models. However, they contributed to the overall picture of current understanding of climate impacts on tree phenology by capturing additional aspects of temperature response, for example, chilling. Model parameterizations based on single sites were more likely to result in model failure than parameterizations based on multiple sites, highlighting that the model parameterization is sensitive to initial conditions and may not perform well under other climate conditions, whether the change is due to a shift in space or over time. By addressing a range of uncertainties, this study showed that ensemble modeling provides a more robust impact assessment than would a single phenology model run.

Photoperiod- and temperature-mediated control of phenology in trees - a molecular perspective.

Contents 511 I. 511 II. 512 III. 513 IV. 513 V. 517 VI. 517 VII. 521 VIII. 521 Acknowledgements 521 References 521 SUMMARY: Trees growing in boreal and temperate regions synchronize their growth with seasonal climatic changes in adaptive responses that are essential for their survival. These trees cease growth before the winter and establish a dormant state during which growth cessation is maintained by repression of responses to growth-promotive signals. Reactivation of growth in the spring follows the release from dormancy promoted by prolonged exposure to low temperature during the winter. The timing of the key events and regulation of the molecular programs associated with the key stages of the annual growth cycle are controlled by two main environmental cues: photoperiod and temperature. Recently, key components mediating photoperiodic control of growth cessation and bud set have been identified, and striking similarities have been observed in signaling pathways controlling growth cessation in trees and floral transition in Arabidopsis. Although less well understood, the regulation of bud dormancy and bud burst may involve cell-cell communication and chromatin remodeling. Here, we discuss current knowledge of the molecular-level regulation of the annual growth cycle of woody trees in temperate and boreal regions, and identify key questions that need to be addressed in the future.

Enhanced science-stakeholder communication to improve ecosystem model performances for climate change impact assessments.

In recent years, climate impact assessments of relevance to the agricultural and forestry sectors have received considerable attention. Current ecosystem models commonly capture the effect of a warmer climate on biomass production, but they rarely sufficiently capture potential losses caused by pests, pathogens and extreme weather events. In addition, alternative management regimes may not be integrated in the models. A way to improve the quality of climate impact assessments is to increase the science-stakeholder collaboration, and in a two-way dialog link empirical experience and impact modelling with policy and strategies for sustainable management. In this paper we give a brief overview of different ecosystem modelling methods, discuss how to include ecological and management aspects, and highlight the importance of science-stakeholder communication. By this, we hope to stimulate a discussion among the science-stakeholder communities on how to quantify the potential for climate change adaptation by improving the realism in the models.

Process-based models not always better than empirical models for simulating budburst of Norway spruce and birch in Europe.

Budburst models have mainly been developed to capture the processes of individual trees, and vary in their complexity and plant physiological realism. We evaluated how well eleven models capture the variation in budburst of birch and Norway spruce in Germany, Austria, the United Kingdom and Finland. The comparison was based on the models performance in relation to their underlying physiological assumptions with four different calibration schemes. The models were not able to accurately simulate the timing of budburst. In general the models overestimated the temperature effect, thereby the timing of budburst was simulated too early in the United Kingdom and too late in Finland. Among the better performing models were three models based on the growing degree day concept, with or without day length or chilling, and an empirical model based on spring temperatures. These models were also the models least influenced by the calibration data. For birch the best calibration scheme was based on multiple sites in either Germany or Europe, and for Norway spruce the best scheme included multiple sites in Germany or cold years of all sites. Most model and calibration combinations indicated greater bias with higher spring temperatures, mostly simulating earlier than observed budburst.

Modelling as a tool for analysing the temperature-dependent future of the Colorado potato beetle in Europe.

A warmer climate may increase the risk of attacks by insect pests on agricultural crops, and questions on how to adapt management practice have created a need for impact models. Phenological models driven by climate data can be used for assessing the potential distribution and voltinism of different insect species, but the quality of the simulations is influenced by a range of uncertainties. In this study, we model the temperature-dependent activity and development of the Colorado potato beetle, and analyse the influence of uncertainty associated with parameterization of temperature and day length response. We found that the developmental threshold has a major impact on the simulated number of generations per year. Little is known about local adaptations and individual variations, but the use of an upper and a lower developmental threshold gave an indication on the potential variation. The day length conditions triggering diapause are known only for a few populations. We used gridded observed temperature data to estimate local adaptations, hypothesizing that cold autumns can leave a footprint in the population genetics by low survival of individuals not reaching the adult stage before winter. Our study indicated that the potential selection pressure caused by climate conditions varies between European regions. Provided that there is enough genetic variation, a local adaption at the northern distribution limit would reduce the number of unsuccessful initiations and thereby increase the potential for spreading to areas currently not infested. The simulations of the impact model were highly sensitive to biases in climate model data, i.e. systematic deviations in comparison with observed weather, highlightening the need of improved performance of regional climate models. Even a moderate temperature increase could change the voltinism of Leptinotarsa decemlineata in Europe, but knowledge on agricultural practice and strategies for countermeasures is needed to evaluate changes in risk of attacks.

Comparison of strain typing results for Clostridium difficile isolates from North America.

Accurate strain typing is critical for understanding the changing epidemiology of Clostridium difficile infections. We typed 350 isolates of toxigenic C. difficile from 2008 to 2009 from seven laboratories in the United States and Canada. Typing was performed by PCR-ribotyping, pulsed-field gel electrophoresis (PFGE), and restriction endonuclease analysis (REA) of whole-cell DNA. The Cepheid Xpert C. difficile test for presumptive identification of 027/NAP1/BI isolates was also tested directly on original stool samples. Of 350 isolates, 244 (70%) were known PCR ribotypes, 224 (68%) were 1 of 8 common REA groups, and 187 (54%) were known PFGE types. Eighty-four isolates typed as 027, NAP1, and BI, and 83 of these were identified as presumptive 027/NAP1/BI by Xpert C. difficile. Eight additional isolates were called presumptive 027/NAP1/BI by Xpert C. difficile, of which three were ribotype 027. Five PCR ribotypes contained multiple REA groups, and three North American pulsed-field (NAP) profiles contained both multiple REA groups and PCR ribotypes. There was modest concordance of results among the three methods for C. difficile strains, including the J strain (ribotype 001 and PFGE NAP2), the toxin A-negative 017 strain (PFGE NAP9 and REA type CF), the 078 animal strain (PFGE NAP7 and REA type BK), and type 106 (PFGE NAP11 and REA type DH). PCR-ribotyping, REA, and PFGE provide different but overlapping patterns of strain clustering. Unlike the other methods, the Xpert C. difficile 027/NAP1/BI assay gave results directly from stool specimens, required only 45 min to complete, but was limited to detection of a single strain type.

Framing environmental risks in the Baltic Sea: a news media analysis.

Scientific complexity and uncertainty is a key challenge for environmental risk governance and to understand how risks are framed and communicated is of utmost importance. The Baltic Sea ecosystem is stressed and exposed to different risks like eutrophication, overfishing, and hazardous chemicals. Based on an analysis of the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, this study discusses media representations of these risks. The results show that the reporting on the Baltic Sea has been fairly stable since the beginning of the 1990s. Many articles acknowledge several risks, but eutrophication receives the most attention and is also considered the biggest threat. Authorities, experts, organizations, and politicians are the dominating actors, while citizens and industry representatives are more or less invisible. Eutrophication is not framed in terms of uncertainty concerning the risk and consequences, but rather in terms of main causes.

Maternal microchimerism in juvenile tonsils and adenoids.

During pregnancy small amounts of cells pass between the mother and the fetus, and this transfer may give rise to a chimeric state that persist for years in both individuals. Both fetal and maternal microchimerism (MMc) have been associated with different autoimmune disorders. Information about MMc in tissues of healthy individuals is sparse but is important when looking for maternal cells within affected tissues of certain diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the occurrence of maternal cells in tonsils and adenoids of 20 healthy children between the ages of 2 and 15 years. All the children underwent surgery because of recurrent tonsillitis or respiratory obstruction. MMc was detected using an RT-PCR assay based on differences in gene polymorphisms between mother and child. We found maternal cells in the tonsils and/or adenoids in four of 20 children. This frequency is less than the frequency of maternal cells found in the peripheral blood of healthy adults but in agreement with the previously reported frequency of maternal chimerism in control tissues

On the paternal origin of trisomy 21 Down syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Down syndrome (DS), characterized by an extra free chromosome 21 is the most common genetic cause for congenital malformations and learning disability. It is well known that the extra chromosome 21 originates from the mother in more than 90% of cases, the incidence increases with maternal age and there is a high recurrence in young women. In a previous report we have presented data to indicate that maternal trisomy 21 (T21) ovarian mosaicism might provide the major causative factor underlying these patterns of DS inheritance. One important outstanding question concerns the reason why the extra chromosome 21 in DS rarely originates from the father, i.e. in less than 10% of T21 DS cases. We here report data indicating that one reason for this parental sex difference is a very much lower degree of fetal testicular in comparison to ovarian T21 mosaicism. RESULTS: We used fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH) with two chromosome 21-specific probes to determine the copy number of chromosome 21 in fetal testicular cell nuclei from four male fetuses, following termination of pregnancy for a non-medical/social reason at gestational age 14-19 weeks. The cells studied were selected on the basis of their morphology alone, pending immunological specification of the relevant cell types. We could not detect any indication of testicular T21 mosaicism in any of these four male fetuses, when analysing at least 2000 cells per case (range 2038-3971, total 11.842). This result is highly statistically significant (p < 0.001) in comparison to the average of 0.54% ovarian T21 mosaicism (range 0.20-0.88%) that we identified in eight female fetuses analysing a total of 12.634 cells, as documented in a previous report in this journal. CONCLUSION: Based on these observations we suggest that there is a significant sex difference in degrees of fetal germ line T21 mosaicism. Thus, it would appear that most female fetuses are T21 ovarian mosaics, while in sharp contrast most male fetuses may be either very low grade T21 testicular mosaics or they may be non-mosaics. We further propose that this sex difference in germ line T21 mosaicism may explain the much less frequent paternal origin of T21 DS than maternal. The mechanisms underlying the DS cases, where the extra chromosome 21 does originate from the father, remains unknown and further studies in this respect are required.

On the origin of trisomy 21 Down syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Down syndrome, characterized by an extra chromosome 21 is the most common genetic cause for congenital malformations and learning disability. It is well known that the extra chromosome 21 most often originates from the mother, the incidence increases with maternal age, there may be aberrant maternal chromosome 21 recombination and there is a higher recurrence in young women. In spite of intensive efforts to understand the underlying reason(s) for these characteristics, the origin still remains unknown. We hypothesize that maternal trisomy 21 ovarian mosaicism might provide the major causative factor. RESULTS: We used fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) with two chromosome 21-specific probes to determine the copy number of chromosome 21 in ovarian cells from eight female foetuses at gestational age 14-22 weeks. All eight phenotypically normal female foetuses were found to be mosaics, containing ovarian cells with an extra chromosome 21. Trisomy 21 occurred with about the same frequency in cells that had entered meiosis as in pre-meiotic and ovarian mesenchymal stroma cells. CONCLUSION: We suggest that most normal female foetuses are trisomy 21 ovarian mosaics and the maternal age effect is caused by differential selection of these cells during foetal and postnatal development until ovulation. The exceptional occurrence of high-grade ovarian mosaicism may explain why some women have a child with Down syndrome already at young age as well as the associated increased incidence at subsequent conceptions. We also propose that our findings may explain the aberrant maternal recombination patterns previously found by family linkage analysis.

Maternal microchimerism in human fetal tissues.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the present study was to analyze the presence of maternal cells in human fetal tissues in the second trimester. STUDY DESIGN: Tissues from 11 second-trimester fetuses terminated because of social reasons or because of malformations and/or trisomy were investigated. By cell sorting and polymerase chain reaction amplification, we studied the presence of maternal CD3+, CD19+, CD34+, and CD45+ in different fetal tissues and in placenta. RESULTS: In the group of fetuses with normal karyotype and normal autopsy findings, 4 of 5 fetuses were positive for maternal microchimerism. In the group in which the fetuses were diagnosed with trisomy 21 and/or malformations, we found cells of maternal origin in 3 of 6 fetuses. CONCLUSION: The results from this study indicate that maternal microchimerism is a common phenomenon in the second-trimester fetuses. Maternal cells of lymphoid and myeloid lineages and hematopoietic progenitors are widely distributed in the second-trimester fetuses.

The impact of RNA stabilization on minimal residual disease assessment in chronic myeloid leukemia.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Accurate quantification of BCR-ABL mRNA is of critical importance for managing patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) who are receiving imatinib therapy. RNA degradation thus constitutes a potential problem for laboratories quantifying minimal residual disease (MRD). Patients' samples that take a long time to be transported from the hospital to the analyzing laboratory may be subject to RNA degradation with a corresponding loss in sensitivity and possible generation of false negative results. Recently, RNA preservation systems have been developed in order to improve RNA stability. The aim of the present study was to investigate such a system. DESIGN AND METHODS: We evaluated the performance of the PAXgene Blood RNA Kit in follow-up CML peripheral blood samples and compared the results to those from unstabilized parallel Trizol extracted samples. The different sample processing methods were evaluated by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis. RESULTS: RNA isolated with the PAXgene system gave a superior yield per milliliter of blood than did the routine Trizol extraction method. However, although of comparable quality, the RNA did not PCR-amplify as efficiently as equal amounts of RNA from routinely processed samples. Therefore, RNA processed with the PAXgene system showed decreased sensitivity for MRD detection, resulting in false negative results. The sensitivity was comparable to that of samples processed routinely 20-30 hours after phlebotomy. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that routinely processed, i.e. unstabilized, peripheral blood that reaches the laboratory and is processed within 30 hours is preferable for MRD detection. Optimal results were achieved with fresh samples processed within 5 hours with the Trizol method. However, RNA stabilization may be useful if sample transit is expected to exceed 30 hours.

The use of light and electron microscopy to assess the impact of ozone on Norway spruce needles.

Light (LM) and transmission electron (TEM) microscopy were used to study previously specified ozone symptoms in the foliage of Norway spruce. The three youngest green needle generations from twenty mature trees in two stands on sites of different soil fertility at Asa, southern Sweden, were sampled in 1999. The critical dose of ozone, expressed as AOT40, was 6,362 ppb.h. LM showed ozone-specific symptoms: decreased chloroplast size with electron dense stroma advancing gradually from the outer to the inner cell layers, being most severe in the needle side facing the sky. The symptoms were expressed as ozone syndrome indices at the needle generation, tree and stand levels. The index had higher values at the low fertility site. TEM was used to confirm the LM results. The study shows that LM can be used for diagnosis of the impact of ozone on conifers in the field.