Evaluating the reliability of mobility metrics from aggregated mobile phone data as proxies for SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA: a population-based study.

BACKGROUND: In early 2020, the response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic focused on non-pharmaceutical interventions, some of which aimed to reduce transmission by changing mixing patterns between people. Aggregated location data from mobile phones are an important source of real-time information about human mobility on a population level, but the degree to which these mobility metrics capture the relevant contact patterns of individuals at risk of transmitting SARS-CoV-2 is not clear. In this study we describe changes in the relationship between mobile phone data and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the USA. METHODS: In this population-based study, we collected epidemiological data on COVID-19 cases and deaths, as well as human mobility metrics collated by advertisement technology that was derived from global positioning systems, from 1396 counties across the USA that had at least 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of COVID-19. We grouped these counties into six ordinal categories, defined by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and graded from urban to rural, and quantified the changes in COVID-19 transmission using estimates of the effective reproduction number (Rt) between Jan 22 and July 9, 2020, to investigate the relationship between aggregated mobility metrics and epidemic trajectory. For each county, we model the time series of Rt values with mobility proxies. FINDINGS: We show that the reproduction number is most strongly associated with mobility proxies for change in the travel into counties (0·757 [95% CI 0·689 to 0·857]), but this relationship primarily holds for counties in the three most urban categories as defined by the NCHS. This relationship weakens considerably after the initial 15 weeks of the epidemic (0·442 [-0·492 to -0·392]), consistent with the emergence of more complex local policies and behaviours, including masking. INTERPRETATION: Our study shows that the integration of mobility metrics into retrospective modelling efforts can be useful in identifying links between these metrics and Rt. Importantly, we highlight potential issues in the data generation process for transmission indicators derived from mobile phone data, representativeness, and equity of access, which must be addressed to improve the interpretability of these data in public health. FUNDING: There was no funding source for this study.

A Gibbs sampler for a class of random convex polytopes.

We present a Gibbs sampler for the Dempster-Shafer (DS) approach to statistical inference for Categorical distributions. The DS framework extends the Bayesian approach, allows in particular the use of partial prior information, and yields three-valued uncertainty assessments representing probabilities "for", "against", and "don't know" about formal assertions of interest. The proposed algorithm targets the distribution of a class of random convex polytopes which encapsulate the DS inference. The sampler relies on an equivalence between the iterative constraints of the vertex configuration and the non-negativity of cycles in a fully connected directed graph. Illustrations include the testing of independence in 2 × 2 contingency tables and parameter estimation of the linkage model.

Estimating Relatedness Between Malaria Parasites.

Understanding the relatedness of individuals within or between populations is a common goal in biology. Increasingly, relatedness features in genetic epidemiology studies of pathogens. These studies are relatively new compared to those in humans and other organisms, but are important for designing interventions and understanding pathogen transmission. Only recently have researchers begun to routinely apply relatedness to apicomplexan eukaryotic malaria parasites, and to date have used a range of different approaches on an ad hoc basis. Therefore, it remains unclear how to compare different studies and which measures to use. Here, we systematically compare measures based on identity-by-state (IBS) and identity-by-descent (IBD) using a globally diverse data set of malaria parasites, Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, and provide marker requirements for estimates based on IBD. We formally show that the informativeness of polyallelic markers for relatedness inference is maximized when alleles are equifrequent. Estimates based on IBS are sensitive to allele frequencies, which vary across populations and by experimental design. For portability across studies, we thus recommend estimates based on IBD. To generate estimates with errors below an arbitrary threshold of 0.1, we recommend ∼100 polyallelic or 200 biallelic markers. Marker requirements are immediately applicable to haploid malaria parasites and other haploid eukaryotes. C.I.s facilitate comparison when different marker sets are used. This is the first attempt to provide rigorous analysis of the reliability of, and requirements for, relatedness inference in malaria genetic epidemiology. We hope it will provide a basis for statistically informed prospective study design and surveillance strategies.