ABSTRACT
Smeed's equation is a widely used model for prediction of traffic fatalities but has been inadequate for use in developing countries. We applied regression analysis to time-series data on vehicles, exponential models for fatality prediction, producing an average absolute error of 20.9% for Qatar, 10.9% for population and traffic fatalities in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Jordan and Qatar. The data were fitted to Jordan and 5.5% for the UAE. We found a strong linear relationship between gross domestic product and fatality rate.
Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic/mortality , Automobiles/statistics & numerical data , Developing Countries/economics , Economic Development/trends , Population Growth , Regression Analysis , Accidents, Traffic/trends , Bias , Cause of Death , Humans , Jordan/epidemiology , Least-Squares Analysis , Linear Models , Population Surveillance , Predictive Value of Tests , Qatar/epidemiology , United Arab Emirates/epidemiologyABSTRACT
Smeed's equation is a widely used model for prediction of traffic fatalities but has been found inadequate for use in developing countries. We applied regression analysis to time-series data on vehicles, population and traffic fatalities in the United Arab Emirates [UAE], Jordan and Qatar. The data were fitted to exponential models for fatality prediction, producing an average absolute error of 20.9% for Qatar, 10.9% for Jordan and 5.5% for the UAE. We found a strong linear relationship between gross domestic product and fatality rate
Subject(s)
Regression Analysis , Mortality , Economic Development , Accidents, TrafficABSTRACT
The aim of this paper is to study an epidemiological aspect of fatalities from motor vehicle accidents in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. All fatal accidents that occur in Jeddah between 1 January and 31 December 1987 are analyzed. The death rates per hundred million vehicle kilometers of travel, per 100,000 registered motor vehicles, and per 100,000 resident population in 1987 were about 1.87, 19.7, and 26.5, respectively. An attempt is made to use international death rates to compare Jeddah with other countries. The figures reveal higher death rates per vehicle travel and per resident population but lower rate per registered vehicle than in some industrialized countries. An additional attempt was made to estimate the cost of road traffic fatalities in Jeddah, which is an extremely difficult task due to lack of reliable data. This study shows that the cost of 1987 road fatalities in Jeddah is estimated to be 648.7 million Saudi Riyals (US$172.5 million).
Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic/mortality , Accident Prevention , Accidents, Traffic/economics , Accidents, Traffic/prevention & control , Adolescent , Adult , Age Factors , Child , Child, Preschool , Humans , Infant , Middle Aged , Saudi Arabia/epidemiologyABSTRACT
The cost per traffic fatality in Kuwait is assessed, comparing three different studies, and is found to be in excess of US $500,000. The three studies employ somewhat different methods.
Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic/economics , Accidents, Traffic/mortality , Accidents, Traffic/statistics & numerical data , Health Services/economics , Humans , Insurance, Health/economics , Kuwait/epidemiology , Population Growth , Value of LifeABSTRACT
A review of the problem of road traffic accidents (RTA) in Jordan is presented with a special reference made to hospitalised accidents. Analysis of time-series data on road traffic accidents (RTA) between 1979 and 1985 showed a rising trend. Over three-quarters of accidents occur in urban areas and during daylight while pedestrians constitute over 40% of all injuries. A detailed analysis of 1986 RTA has revealed that more accidents occur on Saturdays (the first day of working week) and during summer months. Out of all drivers involved 96% were male and 95% were Jordanians. Three-quarters of injured pedestrians were less than 20 years of age, a group which constitutes only 60% of total population. Analysis of hospitalised RTA showed that head injuries were the most common type followed by extremities while 73% of total injuries involved people less than 30 years of age. Joint and upper extremity injuries required the longest and the shortest periods of stay in hospitals respectively.
Subject(s)
Accidents, Traffic/statistics & numerical data , Adult , Aged , Cohort Studies , Humans , Jordan , Middle AgedABSTRACT
It is extremely difficult to derive an acceptable measure of the cost of road accidents and the task is even more difficult in developing countries. This paper reviews the main approaches used to produce estimates of the cost of road accidents, presents a discussion of the attempts made to cost traffic accidents in Jordan and provides estimates for the cost of hospitalised injuries. Using the records of the two private hospitals in Irbid, hospital costs are estimated and presented as average unit costs and total costs.
