ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION: Despite a sizeable amount of research conducted hitherto into predictors of renal transplantation outcomes, there are scarce, data on predictors of in-hospital outcomes of post-kidney transplant rehospitalization. This study sought to provide a user-friendly prediction model for inpatient mortality and graft loss among rehospitalized kidney recipients. METHOD: This retrospective review of 424 consecutive kidney recipients rehospitalized after kidney transplantation between the years 2000 and 2005 used multiple logistic regression analysis to evaluate predictors of hospitalization outcomes. RESULTS: Multivariate analysis showed that age at admission, diabetes mellitus as the cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD), admission due to cerebrovascular accident (CVA), surgical complications were predictors of in-hospital death; age at transplantation, surgical complications, and rejection were predictors of graft loss. Equation for prediction of in-hospital death was Logit(death) -0.304 * age at transplantation (year) + 0.284 age at admission (year) + 1.621 admission for surgical complication + 4.001 admission for CVA-ischemic heart disease + 2.312 diabetes as cause of ESRD. Equation for prediction of in-hospital death was Logit(graft loss) = 0.041 age at transplantation (year) + 1.184 admission for graft rejection + 1.798 admission for surgical complication. CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction equations, using simple demographic and clinical variables, estimated the probability of inpatient mortality and graft loss among re-hospitalized kidney recipients.
