Estimation of natural methane emissions from the largest oil sand deposits on earth.

Worldwide methane emission by various industrial sources is one of the important human concerns due to its serious climate and air-quality implications. This study investigates less-considered diffusive natural methane emissions from the world's largest oil sand deposits. An analytical model, considering the first-order methane degradation, in combination with Monte Carlo simulations, is used to quantitatively characterize diffusive methane emissions from Alberta's oil sands formations. The results show that the average diffusive methane emissions from Alberta's oil sands formations is 1.56 × 10-4 kg/m2/year at the 90th percentile of cumulative probability. The results also indicate an annual diffusive methane emissions rate of 0.857 ± 0.013 Million tons of CO2e/year (MtCO2e/year) from Alberta's oil sands formations. This finding suggests that natural diffusive leakages from the oil sands contribute an additional 1.659 ± 0.025 and 5.194 ± 0.079% to recent Canada's 2019 and Alberta's 2020 methane emission estimates from the upstream oil and gas sector, respectively. The developed model combined with Monte Carlo simulations can be used as a tool for assessing methane emissions and current inventories.

Onset of density-driven instabilities in fractured aquifers.

Linear stability analysis is conducted to study the onset of density-driven convection involved in solubility trapping of CO_{2} in fractured aquifers. The effect of physical properties of a fracture network on the stability of a diffusive boundary layer in a saturated fractured porous media is investigated using the dual porosity concept. Linear stability analysis results show that both fracture interporosity flow and fracture storativity play an important role in the stability behavior of the system. It is shown that a diffusive boundary layer under the gravity field in fractured porous media with lower fracture storativity and/or higher fracture interporosity flow coefficient is more stable. We present scaling relations for the onset of convective instability in fractured aquifers with single and variable matrix block size distribution. These findings improve our understanding of density-driven flow in fractured aquifers and are important in the estimation of potential storage capacity, risk assessment, and storage site characterization and screening.