Demographic, health, physical activity, and workplace factors are associated with lower healthy working life expectancy and life expectancy at age 50.

Although retirement ages are rising in the United Kingdom and other countries, the average number of years people in England can expect to spend both healthy and work from age 50 (Healthy Working Life Expectancy; HWLE) is less than the number of years to the State Pension age. This study aimed to estimate HWLE with the presence and absence of selected health, socio-demographic, physical activity, and workplace factors relevant to stakeholders focusing on improving work participation. Data from 11,540 adults in the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing were analysed using a continuous time 3-state multi-state model. Age-adjusted hazard rate ratios (aHRR) were estimated for transitions between health and work states associated with individual and combinations of health, socio-demographic, and workplace factors. HWLE from age 50 was 3.3 years fewer on average for people with pain interference (6.54 years with 95% confidence interval [6.07, 7.01]) compared to those without (9.79 [9.50, 10.08]). Osteoarthritis and mental health problems were associated with 2.2 and 2.9 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE for people without osteoarthritis: 9.50 years [9.22, 9.79]; HWLE with osteoarthritis: 7.29 years [6.20, 8.39]; HWLE without mental health problems: 9.76 years [9.48, 10.05]; HWLE with mental health problems: 6.87 years [1.58, 12.15]). Obesity and physical inactivity were associated with 0.9 and 2.0 fewer healthy working years respectively (HWLE without obesity: 9.31 years [9.01, 9.62]; HWLE with obesity: 8.44 years [8.02, 8.86]; HWLE without physical inactivity: 9.62 years [9.32, 9.91]; HWLE with physical inactivity: 7.67 years [7.23, 8.12]). Workers without autonomy at work or with inadequate support at work were expected to lose 1.8 and 1.7 years respectively in work with good health from age 50 (HWLE for workers with autonomy: 9.50 years [9.20, 9.79]; HWLE for workers lacking autonomy: 7.67 years [7.22, 8.12]; HWLE for workers with support: 9.52 years [9.22, 9.82]; HWLE for workers with inadequate support: 7.86 years [7.22, 8.12]). This study identified demographic, health, physical activity, and workplace factors associated with lower HWLE and life expectancy at age 50. Identifying the extent of the impact on healthy working life highlights these factors as targets and the potential to mitigate against premature work exit is encouraging to policy-makers seeking to extend working life as well as people with musculoskeletal and mental health conditions and their employers. The HWLE gaps suggest that interventions are needed to promote the health, wellbeing and work outcomes of subpopulations with long-term health conditions.

Gender, education, and cohort differences in healthy working life expectancy at age 50 years in Australia: a longitudinal analysis.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) at age 50 years by gender, cohort, and level of education in Australia. METHODS: We analysed data from two nationally representative cohorts in the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Each cohort was followed up annually from 2001 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2020. Poor health was defined by a self-reported, limiting, long-term health condition. Work was defined by current employment status. HWLEs were estimated with Interpolated Markov Chain multi-state modelling. FINDINGS: We included data from 4951 participants in the cohort from 2001 to 2010 (2605 [53%] women and 2346 [47%] men; age range 50-100 years) and 6589 participants in the cohort from 2011 to 2020 (3518 [53%] women and 3071 [47%] men; age range 50-100 years). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups. Working life expectancy increased over time for all groups, regardless of gender or educational attainment. However, health expectancies only increased for men and people of either gender with higher education. Years working in good health at age 50 years for men were 9·9 years in 2001 (95% CI 9·3-10·4) and 10·8 years (10·4-11·3) in 2011. The corresponding HWLEs for women were 7·9 years (7·3-8·5) and 9·0 years (8·5-9·6). For people with low education level, HWLE was 7·9 years (7·3-8·5) in 2001 and 8·4 years (7·9-8·9) in 2011, and for those with high education level, HWLE rose from 9·6 years in 2001 (9·1-10·1) to 10·5 years in 2011 (10·2-10·9). Across all groups, there were at least 2·5 years working in poor health and 6·7 years not working in good health. INTERPRETATION: Increases in length of working life have not been accompanied by similar gains in healthy life expectancy for women or people of any gender with low education, and it is not unusual for workers older than 50 years to work with long-term health limitations. Strategies to achieve longer working lives should address life-course inequalities in health and encourage businesses and organisations to recruit, train, and retain mature-age workers. FUNDING: Australian Research Council.

The Role of a Composite Fitness Score in the Association Between Low-Density Cholesterol and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults: An Individual Patient Data Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: In the general population, an increase in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) predicts higher cardiovascular disease risk, and lowering LDL-C can prevent cardiovascular disease and reduces mortality risk. Interestingly, in cohort studies that include very old populations, no or inverse associations between LDL-C and mortality have been observed. This study aims to investigate whether the association between LDL-C and mortality in the very old is modified by a composite fitness score. METHODS: A 2-stage meta-analysis of individual participant data from the 5 observational cohort studies. The composite fitness score was operationalized by performance on a combination of 4 markers: functional ability, cognitive function, grip strength, and morbidity. We pooled hazard ratios (HR) from Cox proportional-hazards models for 5-year mortality risk for a 1 mmol/L increase in LDL-C. Models were stratified by high/low composite fitness score. RESULTS: Composite fitness scores were calculated for 2 317 participants (median 85 years, 60% females participants), of which 994 (42.9%) had a high composite fitness score, and 694 (30.0%) had a low-composite fitness score. There was an inverse association between LDL-C and 5-year mortality risk (HR 0.87 [95% CI: 0.80-0.94]; p < .01), most pronounced in participants with a low-composite fitness score (HR 0.85 [95% CI: 0.75-0.96]; p = .01), compared to those with a high composite fitness score (HR = 0.98 [95% CI: 0.83-1.15]; p = .78), the test for subgroups differences was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: In this very old population, there was an inverse association between LDL-C and all-cause mortality, which was most pronounced in participants with a low-composite fitness scores.

A national study of burnout and spiritual health in UK general practitioners during the COVID-19 pandemic.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify the burnout and spiritual health of general practitioners (GPs) in the United Kingdom (UK) who worked during the Covid-19 Pandemic. DESIGN: Online survey, April/May 2021, distributed via emails to general practices, Clinical Commissioning Groups (CCGs), Health boards, Clinical Research Networks, professional groups, social media GP groups and networks. SETTING: United Kingdom. PARTICIPANTS: 1318 GPs who had worked in the National Health Service (NHS) during the COVID-19 pandemic (March 2020 -May 2021). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Burnout scores, measured by the Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI) for Medical Personnel; spiritual health, measured using the Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy-Spiritual Well-Being, Non-Illness (FACIT-SP-NI). RESULTS: 19% of surveyed GPs were at the highest risk for burnout, using accepted MBI 'cut off' levels. There was no evidence of a difference in burnout by gender, ethnicity, or length of service. GP burnout was associated with GP spiritual health, regardless of identification with a religion. GPs with low spiritual health were five times more likely to be in the highest risk group for burnout. CONCLUSIONS: Burnout is at crisis levels amongst GPs in the UK NHS. A comprehensive response is required, identifying protective and precipitating factors for burnout. The potentially protective impact of spiritual health merits further investigation.

Discussing spiritual health in primary care and the HOPE tool-A mixed methods survey of GP views.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, the General Medical Council (GMC) and Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) require doctors to consider spiritual health in their consultations. There are documented barriers to discussion of spiritual health, and suggested tools to help overcome them. AIM: To investigate how comfortable general practitioners (GPs) feel about discussing spiritual health in the consultation, and whether a structured tool (the HOPE tool) would be helpful. DESIGN AND SETTING: A mixed-methods online survey completed by GPs in England. METHOD: A mixed methods online survey of practicing GPs in England asked about current comfort with the topic of spiritual health and use of spiritual history-taking tools. The acceptability of the HOPE tool was investigated using patient vignettes drawn from clinical practice. RESULTS: 177 GPs responded. 88 (49.71%) reported that they were comfortable asking patients about spiritual health. GPs felt most comfortable raising the topic after a patient cue (mean difference between pre and post cue 26%). The HOPE tool was viewed as acceptable to use with patients by 65% of participants, although its limitations were acknowledged. Qualitative data showed concerns about regulator (the GMC) and peer disapproval were major barriers to discussions, especially in the case of discordance between patient and doctor background. CONCLUSION: Only half of GPs are comfortable discussing spiritual health. Dedicated training, using a structured approach, with regulatory approval, may help overcome barriers to GPs discussing spiritual health. Further research into the benefits, and risks, of discussion of spiritual health in the GP consultation is recommended.

The association between multimorbidity and mobility disability-free life expectancy in adults aged 85 years and over: A modelling study in the Newcastle 85+ cohort.

BACKGROUND: Mobility disability is predictive of further functional decline and can itself compromise older people's capacity (and preference) to live independently. The world's population is also ageing, and multimorbidity is the norm in those aged ≥85. What is unclear in this age group, is the influence of multimorbidity on (a) transitions in mobility disability and (b) mobility disability-free life expectancy (mobDFLE). METHODS AND FINDINGS: Using multistate modelling in an inception cohort of 714 85-year-olds followed over a 10-year period (aged 85 in 2006 to 95 in 2016), we investigated the association between increasing numbers of long-term conditions and (1) mobility disability incidence, (2) recovery from mobility disability and (3) death, and then explored how this shaped the remaining life expectancy free from mobility disability at age 85. Models were adjusted for age, sex, disease group count, BMI and education. We defined mobility disability based on participants' self-reported ability to get around the house, go up and down stairs/steps, and walk at least 400 yards; participants were defined as having mobility disability if, for one or more these activities, they had any difficulty with them or could not perform them. Data were drawn from the Newcastle 85+ Study: a longitudinal population-based cohort study that recruited community-dwelling and institutionalised individuals from Newcastle upon Tyne and North Tyneside general practices. We observed that each additional disease was associated with a 16% increased risk of incident mobility disability (hazard ratio (HR) 1.16, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07 to 1.25, p < 0.001), a 26% decrease in the chance of recovery from this state (HR 0.74, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.86, p < 0.001), and a 12% increased risk of death with mobility disability (HR: 1.12, 95% CI: 1.07- to .17, p < 0.001). This translated to reductions in mobDFLE with increasing numbers of long-term conditions. However, residual and unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded from these analyses, and there may have been unobserved transitions to/from mobility disability between interviews and prior to death. CONCLUSIONS: We suggest 2 implications from this work. (1) Our findings support calls for a greater focus on the prevention of multimorbidity as populations age. (2) As more time spent with mobility disability could potentially lead to greater care needs, maintaining independence with increasing age should also be a key focus for health/social care and reablement services.

The Impact of Education and Lifestyle Factors on Disability-Free Life Expectancy From Mid-Life to Older Age: A Multi-Cohort Study.

Objectives: Low education and unhealthy lifestyle factors such as obesity, smoking, and no exercise are modifiable risk factors for disability and premature mortality. We aimed to estimate the individual and joint impact of these factors on disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and total life expectancy (TLE). Methods: Data (n = 22,304) were from two birth cohorts (1921-26 and 1946-51) of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health and linked National Death Index between 1996 and 2016. Discrete-time multi-state Markov models were used to assess the impact on DFLE and TLE. Results: Compared to the most favourable combination of education and lifestyle factors, the least favourable combination (low education, obesity, current/past smoker, and no exercise) was associated with a loss of 5.0 years TLE, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 3.2-6.8 and 6.4 years DFLE (95%CI: 4.8-7.8) at age 70 in the 1921-26 cohort. Corresponding losses in the 1946-51 cohort almost doubled (TLE: 11.0 years and DFLE: 13.0 years). Conclusion: Individual or co-ocurrance of lifestyle risk factors were associated with a significant loss of DFLE, with a greater loss in low-educated women and those in the 1946-51 cohort.

Protein intake, physical activity and grip strength in European and North American community-dwelling older adults: a pooled analysis of individual participant data from four longitudinal ageing cohorts.

INTRODUCTION: Higher dietary protein, alone or in combination with physical activity (PA), may slow the loss of age-related muscle strength in older adults. We investigated the longitudinal relationship between protein intake and grip strength, and the interaction between protein intake and PA, using four longitudinal ageing cohorts. METHODS: Individual participant data from 5584 older adults (52% women; median: 75, IQR: 71.6, 79.0 years) with up to 8.5 years (mean: 4.9, SD: 2.3 years) of follow-up from the Health ABC, NuAge, LASA and Newcastle 85+ cohorts were pooled. Baseline protein intake was assessed with food frequency questionnaires and 24h recalls and categorized into <0.8, 0.8-<1.0, 1.0-<1.2 and ≥1.2 g/kg adjusted body weight (aBW)/d. The prospective association between protein intake, its interaction with PA, and grip strength (sex- and cohort-specific) was determined using joint models (hierarchical linear mixed effects and a link function for Cox proportional hazards models). RESULTS: Grip strength declined on average by 0.018 SD (95%CI: -0.026, -0.006) every year. No associations were found between protein intake, measured at baseline, and grip strength, measured prospectively, or rate of decline of grip strength in models adjusted for sociodemographic, anthropometric, lifestyle and health variables (e.g., protein intake ≥1.2 vs <0.8 g/kg aBW/d: ß= -0.003, 95%CI: -0.014,0.005 SD per year). There also was no evidence of an interaction between protein intake and PA. CONCLUSIONS: We failed to find evidence in this study to support the hypothesis that higher protein intake, alone or in combination with higher PA, slowed the rate of grip strength decline in older adults.

Projections of dependency and associated social care expenditure for the older population in England to 2038: effect of varying disability progression.

OBJECTIVES: to assess the effect of recent stalling of life expectancy and various scenarios for disability progression on projections of social care expenditure between 2018 and 2038, and the likelihood of reaching the Ageing Society Grand Challenge mission of five extra healthy, independent years at birth. DESIGN: two linked projections models: the Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) model and the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre long-term care projections model, updated to include 2018-based population projections. POPULATION: PACSim: about 303,589 individuals aged 35 years and over (a 1% random sample of the England population in 2014) created from three nationally representative longitudinal ageing studies. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Total social care expenditure (public and private) for older people, and men and women's independent life expectancy at age 65 (IndLE65) under five scenarios of changing disability progression and recovery with and without lower life expectancy. RESULTS: between 2018 and 2038, total care expenditure was projected to increase by 94.1%-1.25% of GDP; men's IndLE65 increasing by 14.7% (range 11.3-16.5%), exceeding the 8% equivalent of the increase in five healthy, independent years at birth, although women's IndLE65 increased by only 4.7% (range 3.2-5.8%). A 10% reduction in disability progression and increase in recovery resulted in the lowest increase in total care expenditure and increases in both men's and women's IndLE65 exceeding 8%. CONCLUSIONS: interventions that slow down disability progression, and improve recovery, could significantly reduce social care expenditure and meet government targets for increases in healthy, independent years.

Disentangling the varying associations between systolic blood pressure and health outcomes in the very old: an individual patient data meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES: While randomized controlled trials have proven the benefits of blood pressure (BP) lowering in participating octogenarians, population-based observational studies suggest an association between low systolic blood pressure (SBP) and faster overall decline. This study investigates the effects of BP-lowering treatment, a history of cardiovascular diseases (CVD), and cognitive and physical fitness on the associations between SBP and health outcomes in the very old. METHODS: Five cohorts from the Towards Understanding Longitudinal International older People Studies (TULIPS) consortium were included in a two-step individual participant data meta-analysis (IPDMA). We pooled hazard ratios (HR) from Cox proportional-hazards models for 5-year mortality and estimates of linear mixed models for change in cognitive and functional decline. Models were stratified by BP-lowering treatment, history of CVD, Mini-Mental State Examination scores, grip strength (GS) and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Of all 2480 participants (59.9% females, median 85 years), median baseline SBP was 149 mmHg, 64.3% used BP-lowering drugs and 47.3% had a history of CVD. Overall, higher SBP was associated with lower all-cause mortality (pooled HR 0.91 [95% confidence interval 0.88-0.95] per 10 mmHg). Associations remained irrespective of BP-lowering treatment, history of CVD and BMI, but were absent in octogenarians with above-median MMSE and GS. In pooled cohorts, SBP was not associated with cognitive and functional decline. CONCLUSION: While in the very old with low cognitive or physical fitness a higher SBP was associated with a lower all-cause mortality, this association was not evident in fit octogenarians. SBP was not consistently associated with cognitive and functional decline.

Lifecourse socioeconomic position and cohort differences in health expectancy in Australia: a longitudinal cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is a need to know how changes in health expectancy differ for population subgroups globally. The aim of this study was to estimate 10-year trends in health expectancies by individual markers of socioeconomic position from three points over the lifecourse, evaluating how compression and expansion of morbidity have varied within a national population. METHODS: We analysed data from two cohorts of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. The cohorts were followed annually from 2001 to 2007 (n=4720; baseline age range 50-100 years) and 2011 to 2017 (n=6632; baseline age range 50-99 years). Health expectancies were estimated at age 65 years for four outcomes reflecting activity limitations, disability, perceived health, and mental health. Cohort differences were compared by gender, age left school, occupational prestige, and housing tenure. FINDINGS: Women with low socioeconomic position were the only group with no improvements in life expectancy across the two cohorts. Among men with low education and all women gains in life expectancy comprised entirely of years lived with global activity limitations. Compression of years lived with severe-disability, poor self-rated health, and poor mental health was most consistently observed for men and women with high education and home ownership. Occupational prestige did not greatly differentiate cohort differences in health expectancies. INTERPRETATION: Over the past two decades in Australia, social disparities in health expectancies have at least been maintained, and have increased for some outcomes. Equitable gains in health expectancies should be a major public health goal, and will help support sustainable health and social care systems. FUNDING: Australian Research Council.

Onset and progression of chronic disease and disability in a large cohort of older Australian women.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the probability of onset and progression of disease and disability, length of life with or without disease and/or disability, and incidence of mortality, and to identify factors associated with transitioning to disease and/or disability over time. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. Data were provided by 12,432 participants (born 1921-26) of the Australian Longitudinal Study of Women's Health linked with National Death Index data from 1996 (age: 70-75) to 2016 (age: 90-95). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: A five-state Markov model was fitted to estimate the transition probability, length of life with or without disease and/or disability, and the association between baseline characteristics and disease/disability/mortality risk. RESULTS: Over two-thirds of women had died by age 90-95, and only 3.8% of these had died with no chronic disease and disability. Those reporting chronic disease were more likely to have experienced disability (Transition Rate Ratio: 2•72, 95%CI= 2•52-2•93) than those who died without disability. At age 70-75, the expected life without chronic disease and disability was 7•68 (95%CI: 7•52-7•80) years, life with chronic disease but no disability was 4•39 (95%CI=4•23-4•49) years, and life with disability was 3.76 (95%CI=3•66-3•92) years. The factors difficulties managing on available income (HR=1•18, 95%CI=1•02-1•38), did not complete secondary school (HR=1•19, 95%CI=1•03-1•37), and overweight/obese (HR=1•36, 95%CI=1•20-1•55) were associated with an increased risk of disability. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide important insights on the onset and progression of disease and disability in older women, underscoring the importance of addressing mid-/early old-life risk factors, managing chronic conditions, and delaying disability onset and progression through targeted intervention programs.

A comparison over 2 decades of disability-free life expectancy at age 65 years for those with long-term conditions in England: Analysis of the 2 longitudinal Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies.

BACKGROUND: Previous research has examined the improvements in healthy years if different health conditions are eliminated, but often with cross-sectional data, or for a limited number of conditions. We used longitudinal data to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) trends for older people with a broad number of health conditions, identify the conditions that would result in the greatest improvement in DFLE, and describe the contribution of the underlying transitions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and II) are both large population-based studies of those aged 65 years or over in England with identical sampling strategies (CFAS I response 81.7%, N = 7,635; CFAS II response 54.7%, N = 7,762). CFAS I baseline interviews were conducted in 1991 to 1993 and CFAS II baseline interviews in 2008 to 2011, both with 2 years of follow-up. Disability was measured using the modified Townsend activities of daily living scale. Long-term conditions (LTCs-arthritis, cognitive impairment, coronary heart disease (CHD), diabetes, hearing difficulties, peripheral vascular disease (PVD), respiratory difficulties, stroke, and vision impairment) were self-reported. Multistate models estimated life expectancy (LE) and DFLE, stratified by sex and study and adjusted for age. DFLE was estimated from the transitions between disability-free and disability states at the baseline and 2-year follow-up interviews, and LE was estimated from mortality transitions up to 4.5 years after baseline. In CFAS I, 60.8% were women and average age was 75.6 years; in CFAS II, 56.1% were women and average age was 76.4 years. Cognitive impairment was the only LTC whose prevalence decreased over time (odds ratio: 0.6, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.5 to 0.6, p < 0.001), and where the percentage of remaining years at age 65 years spent disability-free decreased for men (difference CFAS II-CFAS I: -3.6%, 95% CI: -8.2 to 1.0, p = 0.12) and women (difference CFAS II-CFAS I: -3.9%, 95% CI: -7.6 to 0.0, p = 0.04) with the LTC. For men and women with any other LTC, DFLE improved or remained similar. For women with CHD, years with disability decreased (-0.8 years, 95% CI: -3.1 to 1.6, p = 0.50) and DFLE increased (2.7 years, 95% CI: 0.7 to 4.7, p = 0.008), stemming from a reduction in the risk of incident disability (relative risk ratio: 0.6, 95% CI: 0.4 to 0.8, p = 0.004). The main limitations of the study were the self-report of health conditions and the response rate. However, inverse probability weights for baseline nonresponse and longitudinal attrition were used to ensure population representativeness. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we observed improvements to DFLE between 1991 and 2011 despite the presence of most health conditions we considered. Attention needs to be paid to support and care for people with cognitive impairment who had different outcomes to those with physical health conditions.

Healthy working life expectancy at age 50 for people with and without osteoarthritis in local and national English populations.

Retirement ages are rising in many countries to offset the challenges of population ageing, but osteoarthritis is an age-associated disease that is becoming more prevalent and may limit capacity to work until older ages. We aimed to assess the impact of osteoarthritis on healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) by comparing HWLE for people with and without osteoarthritis from ages 50 and 65 nationally and in a local area in England. Mortality-linked data for adults aged ≥ 50 years were used from six waves (2002-13) of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing and from three time points of the North Staffordshire Osteoarthritis Project. HWLE was defined as the average number of years expected to be spent healthy (no limiting long-standing illness) and in paid work (employment or self-employment), and was estimated for people with and without osteoarthritis and by sex and occupation type using interpolated Markov chain multi-state modelling. HWLE from age 50 years was a third lower for people with osteoarthritis compared to people without osteoarthritis both nationally (5.68 95% CI [5.29, 6.07] years compared to 10.00 [9.74, 10.26]) and in North Staffordshire (4.31 [3.68, 4.94] years compared to 6.90 [6.57, 7.24]). HWLE from age 65 years for self-employed people with osteoarthritis exceeded HWLE for people without osteoarthritis in manual or non-manual occupations. Osteoarthritis was associated with a significantly shorter HWLE. People with osteoarthritis are likely to have significantly impaired working ability and capacity to work until older ages, especially in regions with poorer health and work outcomes.

Projections of healthy working life expectancy in England to the year 2035.

UK state pension age is rising in response to life expectancy gains but population health and job opportunities may not be sufficient to achieve extended working lives1-3. This study aimed to estimate future trends in healthy working life expectancy (HWLE) from age 50 to 75 for men and women in England. Using the 'intercensal' health expectancy approach, annual period HWLE from 1996 to 2014 was estimated using cross-sectional Health Survey for England data and mortality statistics4-7. HWLE projections until the year 2035 were estimated from Lee-Carter forecasts of transition rates8. Projections of life expectancy from age 50 showed gains averaging 10.7 weeks (0.21 years) and 6.4 weeks (0.12 years) per calendar year between 2015 and 2035 for men and women respectively. HWLE has been extending in England but gains are projected to slow to an average of 1 week per year for men (0.02 years) and 2.8 weeks (0.05 years) per year for women between 2015 and 2035. Modest projected HWLE gains and the widening gap between HWLE and life expectancy from age 50 suggest that working lives are not extending in line with policy goals. Further research should identify factors that increase healthy working life.

The impact of long-term conditions on disability-free life expectancy: A systematic review.

Although leading causes of death are regularly reported, there is disagreement on which long-term conditions (LTCs) reduce disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) the most. We aimed to estimate increases in DFLE associated with elimination of a range of LTCs. This is a comprehensive systematic review and meta-analysis of studies assessing the effects of LTCs on health expectancy (HE). MEDLINE, Embase, HMIC, Science Citation Index, and Social Science Citation Index were systematically searched for studies published in English from July 2007 to July 2020 with updated searches from inception to April 8, 2021. LTCs considered included: arthritis, diabetes, cardiovascular disease including stroke and peripheral vascular disease, respiratory disease, visual and hearing impairment, dementia, cognitive impairment, depression, cancer, and comorbidity. Studies were included if they estimated HE outcomes (disability-free, active or healthy life expectancy) at age 50 or older for individuals with and without the LTC. Study selection and quality assessment were undertaken by teams of independent reviewers. Meta-analysis was feasible if three or more studies assessed the impact of the same LTC on the same HE at the same age using comparable methods, with narrative syntheses for the remaining studies. Studies reporting Years of Life Lost (YLL), Years of Life with Disability (YLD) and Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs = YLL+YLD) were included but reported separately as incomparable with other HE outcomes (PROSPERO registration: CRD42020196049). Searches returned 6072 unique records, yielding 404 eligible for full text retrieval from which 30 DFLE-related and 7 DALY-related were eligible for inclusion. Thirteen studies reported a single condition, and 17 studies reported on more than one condition (two to nine LTCs). Only seven studies examined the impact of comorbidities. Random effects meta-analyses were feasible for a subgroup of studies examining diabetes (four studies) or respiratory diseases (three studies) on DFLE. From pooled results, individuals at age 65 without diabetes gain on average 2.28 years disability-free compared to those with diabetes (95% CI: 0.57-3.99, p<0.01, I2 = 96.7%), whilst individuals without respiratory diseases gain on average 1.47 years compared to those with respiratory diseases (95% CI: 0.77-2.17, p<0.01, I2 = 79.8%). Eliminating diabetes, stroke, hypertension or arthritis would result in compression of disability. Of the seven longitudinal studies assessing the impact of multiple LTCs, three found that stroke had the greatest effect on DFLE for both genders. This study is the first to systematically quantify the impact of LTCs on both HE and LE at a global level, to assess potential compression of disability. Diabetes, stroke, hypertension and arthritis had a greater effect on DFLE than LE and so elimination would result in compression of disability. Guidelines for reporting HE outcomes would assist data synthesis in the future, which would in turn aid public health policy.

Are Religiosity and Spirituality Related to Self-Reported Health Expectancy? An Analysis of the European Values Survey.

Research on religiosity and health has generally focussed on the United States, and outcomes of health or mortality but not both. Using the European Values Survey 2008, we examined cross-sectional associations between four dimensions of religiosity/spirituality: attendance, private prayer, importance of religion, belief in God; and healthy life expectancy (HLE) based on self-reported health across 47 European countries (n = 65,303 individuals). Greater levels of private prayer, importance of religion and belief in God, at a country level, were associated with lower HLE at age 20, after adjustment for confounders, but only in women. The findings may explain HLE inequalities between European countries.

What are the current and projected future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling up cognitive stimulation therapy?

OBJECTIVES: Cognitive stimulation therapy (CST) is one of the few non-pharmacological interventions for people living with dementia shown to be effective and cost-effective. What are the current and future cost and health-related quality of life implications of scaling-up CST to eligible new cases of dementia in England? METHODS/DESIGN: Data from trials were combined with microsimulation and macrosimulation modelling to project future prevalence, needs and costs. Health and social costs, unpaid care costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared with and without scaling-up of CST and follow-on maintenance CST (MCST). RESULTS: Scaling-up group CST requires year-on-year increases in expenditure (mainly on staff), but these would be partially offset by reductions in health and care costs. Unpaid care costs would increase. Scaling-up MCST would also require additional expenditure, but without generating savings elsewhere. There would be improvements in general cognitive functioning and health-related quality of life, summarised in terms of QALY gains. Cost per QALY for CST alone would increase from £12,596 in 2015 to £19,573 by 2040, which is below the threshold for cost-effectiveness used by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE). Cost per QALY for CST and MCST combined would grow from £19,883 in 2015 to £30,906 by 2040, making it less likely to be recommended by NICE on cost-effectiveness grounds. CONCLUSIONS: Scaling-up CST England for people with incident dementia can improve lives in an affordable, cost-effective manner. Adding MCST also improves health-related quality of life, but the economic evidence is less compelling.

Evaluation of High Cholesterol and Risk of Dementia and Cognitive Decline in Older Adults Using Individual Patient Meta-Analysis.

INTRODUCTION: Although increased cholesterol level has been acknowledged as a risk factor for dementia, evidence synthesis based on published data has yielded mixed results. This is especially relevant in older adults where individual studies report non-linear relationships between cholesterol and cognition and, in some cases, find higher cholesterol associated with a lower risk of subsequent cognitive decline or dementia. Prior evidence synthesis based on published results has not allowed us to focus on older adults or to standardize analyses across studies. Given our ageing population, an increased risk of dementia in older adults, and the need for proportionate treatment in this age group, an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is timely. METHOD: We combined data from 8 studies and over 21,000 participants aged 60 years and over in a 2-stage IPD to examine the relationship between total, high-density, and low-density lipoprotein (HDL and LDL) cholesterol and subsequent incident dementia or cognitive decline, with the latter categorized using a reliable change index method. RESULTS: Meta-analyses found no relationship between total, HDL, or LDL cholesterol (per millimoles per litre increase) and risk of cognitive decline in this older adult group averaging 76 years of age. For total cholesterol and cognitive decline: odds ratio (OR) 0.93 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.86: 1.01) and for incident dementia: OR 1.01 [95% CI 0.89: 1.13]. This was not altered by rerunning the analyses separately for statin users and non-users or by the presence of an APOE e4 allele. CONCLUSION: There were no clear consistent relationships between cholesterol and cognitive decline or dementia in this older adult group, nor was there evidence of effect modification by statin use. Further work is needed in younger populations to understand the role of cholesterol across the life-course and to identify any relevant intervention points. This is especially important if modification of cholesterol is to be further evaluated for its potential influence on risk of cognitive decline or dementia.