A New 12-Lead ECG Prognostic Score.

BACKGROUND: The Diagonal Line Rule (DLR) is an educational pattern recognition tool for the classification of 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) as normal or abnormal. OBJECTIVE: To develop a score using the DLR for the risk stratification of abnormal ECGs. METHODS: Patients at the Palo Alto, VA, referred for a routine resting ECG between 1987 and 1999 were retrospectively considered. The initial ECGs of 43,798 patients were scored according to the DLR. The main outcome variable was cardiovascular mortality with 8 years of follow-up. RESULTS: ECG abnormalities identified by the DLR were combined with age, gender, and ST depression to develop an additive score. The score was validated and shown to stratify levels of cardiac risk with a 0.78 area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for identifying those who had a cardiovascular death. CONCLUSION: The score effectively stratifies ECGs for prediction of risk of cardiovascular death.

Prognostic implications of Q waves and T-wave inversion associated with early repolarization.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the prevalence of early polarization (ER) in a stable population and to evaluate the prognostic significance of the association or absence of Q waves or T-wave inversion (TWI). PATIENTS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study performed at the university-affiliated Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Health Care Center from March 1, 1987, through December 31, 1999, we evaluated outpatient electrocardiograms. Vital status and cause of death were determined in all patients, with a mean ± SD follow-up of 7.6±3.8 years. RESULTS: Of the 29,281 patients, 87% were men and 13% were African American. Inferior or lateral ER was present in 664 patients (2.3%): in inferior leads in 185 (0.6%), in lateral leads in 479 (1.6%) , and in both inferior and lateral leads in 163 (0.6%). Only when Q waves or TWI accompanied ER was there an increased risk of cardiovascular death (Cox proportional hazards regression model, 5.0; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-7.2; P<.001). CONCLUSION: Common patterns of ER without concomitant Q waves or TWI are not associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death; however, when either occurs with ER, there is a hazard ratio of 5.0. These findings confirm that ER is a benign entity; however, the presence of Q waves or TWI with ER is predictive of increased cardiovascular death.

The prognostic value of early repolarization with ST-segment elevation in African Americans.

BACKGROUND: Increased prevalence of classic early repolarization, defined as ST-segment elevation (STE) in the absence of acute myocardial injury, in African Americans is well established. The prognostic value of this pattern in different ethnicities remains controversial. OBJECTIVE: Measure association between early repolarization and cardiovascular mortality in African Americans. METHODS: The resting electrocardiograms of 45,829 patients were evaluated at the Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Hospital. Subjects with inpatient status or electrocardiographic evidence of acute myocardial infarction were excluded, leaving 29,281 subjects. ST-segment elevation, defined as an elevation of >0.1 mV at the end of the QRS, was electronically flagged and visually adjudicated by 3 observers blinded to outcomes. An association between ethnicity and early repolarization was measured by using multivariate logistic regression. We analyzed associations between early repolarization and cardiovascular mortality by using the Cox proportional hazards regression analysis. RESULTS: Subjects were 13% women and 13.3% African Americans, with an average age of 55 years and followed for an average of 7.6 years, resulting in 1995 cardiovascular deaths. There were 479 subjects with lateral STE and 185 with inferior STE. After adjustment for age, sex, heart rate, and coronary artery disease, African American ethnicity was associated with lateral or inferior STE (odds ratio 3.1; P = .0001). While lateral or inferior STE in non-African Americans was independently associated with cardiovascular death (hazard ratio 1.6; P = .02), it was not associated with cardiovascular death in African Americans (hazard ratio 0.75; P = .50). CONCLUSIONS: Although early repolarization is more prevalent in African Americans, it is not predictive of cardiovascular death in this population and may represent a distinct electrophysiologic phenomenon.

Early repolarization in an ambulatory clinical population.

BACKGROUND: The significance of early repolarization, particularly regarding the morphology of the R-wave downslope, has come under question. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 29 281 resting ambulatory ECGs from the VA Palo Alto Health Care System. With PR interval as the isoelectric line and amplitude criteria ≥0.1 mV, ST-segment elevation is defined at the end of the QRS, J wave as an upward deflection, and slur as a conduction delay on the QRS downstroke. Associations of ST-segment elevation patterns, J waves, and slurs with cardiovascular mortality were analyzed with Cox analysis. With a median follow-up of 7.6 years, there were 1995 cardiac deaths. Of 29 281 subjects, 87% were male (55±14 years) and 13% were female (56±17 years); 13% were black, 6% were Hispanic, and 81% were white or other. Six hundred sixty-four (2.3%) had inferior or lateral ST-segment elevation: 185 (0.6%) in inferior leads and 479 (1.6%) in lateral leads, 163 (0.6%) in both, and 0.4% had global elevation. A total of 4041 ECGs were analyzed with enhanced display, and 583 (14%) had J waves or slurring, which were more prevalent in those with than in those without ST-segment elevation (61% versus 13%; P<0.001). ST-segment elevation occurred more in those with than in those without J waves or slurs (12% versus 1.3%; P<0.001). Except when involving only inferior leads, all components of early repolarization were more common in young individuals, male subjects, blacks, and those with bradycardia. All patterns and components of early repolarization were associated with decreased cardiovascular mortality, but this was not significant after adjustment for age. CONCLUSIONS: We found no significant association between any components of early repolarization and cardiac mortality.

The impact of ST elevation on athletic screening.

OBJECTIVE: To demonstrate the prevalence and patterns of ST elevation (STE) in ambulatory individuals and athletes and compare the clinical outcomes. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. ST elevation was measured by computer algorithm and defined as ≥0.1 mV at the end of the QRS complex. Elevation was confirmed, and J waves and slurring were coded visually. SETTING: Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System and Stanford University varsity athlete screening evaluation. PATIENTS: Overall, 45 829 electrocardiograms (ECGs) were obtained from the clinical patient cohort and 658 ECGs from athletes. We excluded inpatients and those with ECG abnormalities, leaving 20 901 outpatients and 641 athletes. INTERVENTIONS: Electrocardiogram evaluation and follow-up for vital status. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cardiovascular mortality and cardiac events. RESULTS: ST elevation in the anterior and lateral leads was more prevalent in men and in African Americans and inversely related to age and resting heart rate. Athletes had a higher prevalence of early repolarization even when matched for age and gender with nonathletes. ST elevation greater than 0.2 mV (2 mm) was very unusual. ST elevation was not associated with cardiac death in the clinical population or with cardiac events or abnormal test results in the athletes. CONCLUSIONS: Early repolarization is not associated with cardiac death and has patterns that help distinguish it from STE associated with cardiac conditions, such as myocardial ischemia or injury, pericarditis, and the Brugada syndrome.