Evaluation of a national program to distribute free face masks in Uganda: Evidence from Mbale District.

BACKGROUND: COVID-19 posed a major threat to countries around the world, but many nations in sub-Saharan Africa avoided large-scale outbreaks. In Uganda, the government first enacted strict lockdowns but later focused on public health policies like masking and distancing. The government also embarked on an ambitious campaign to deliver a free face mask to all Ugandan citizens (approx. 30 million masks). We test whether mask distribution, and public education and encouragement of mask use by community health volunteers, affected mask behavior. METHODS: We collected data about mask behavior before and after masks were distributed in the Mbale district of Uganda. Trained enumerators directly observed mask wearing in public places and asked about mask use via phone surveys. We compared observed and self-reported mask behavior before and after masks were distributed. We also tested whether training volunteers from randomly selected villages to educate the public about COVID-19 and masks affected behavior, attitudes, and knowledge among mask recipients. RESULTS: We collected 6,381 direct observations of mask use at baseline (February 2021) and 19,855 observations at endline (April 2021). We conducted a listing of 9,410 households eligible for phone surveys and randomly selected 399 individuals (4.2%) at baseline and 640 (6.8%) at endline. Fewer than 1% of individuals were observed wearing masks at baseline: 0.9% were seen with a mask and 0.5% wore masks over mouth and nose. Mask wearing significantly increased at endline but remained low: 1.8% of people were observed with masks and 1.1% were seen wearing masks correctly after the distribution campaign. At the same time, a high proportion of people reported using masks: 63.0% of people reported using masks at baseline and 65.3% at endline when walking around their villages. When respondents were asked about mask use in public places, 94.7% reported using masks at baseline and 97.4% reported using masks at endline. We found no differences in knowledge, behavior, or attitudes among mask recipients in villages where volunteers were tasked with conveying information about COVID-19 and masks during distribution. CONCLUSION: Mask use remained low in Mbale district of Uganda during study observation period even after free masks were distributed. Encouraging new health behaviors may need to involve more intensive interventions that include reminders and address social norms.

Unwinding the tangle of adolescent pregnancy and socio-economic functioning: leveraging administrative data from Manitoba, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the relationship between adolescent pregnancy and adult education and employment outcomes is complicated due to the endogeneity of fertility behaviors and socio-economic functioning. Studies exploring adolescent pregnancy have often relied on limited data to measure adolescent pregnancy (i.e. birth during adolescence or self-reports) and lack access to objective measures of school performance during childhood. METHODS: We use rich administrative data from Manitoba, Canada, to assess women's functioning during childhood (including pre-pregnancy academic performance), fertility behaviors during adolescence (live birth, abortion, pregnancy loss, or no history of pregnancy), and adult outcomes of high school completion and receipt of income assistance. This rich set of covariates allows calculating propensity score weights to help adjust for characteristics possibly predictive of adolescent pregnancy. We also explore which risk factors are associated with the study outcomes. RESULTS: We assessed a cohort of 65,732 women, of whom 93.5% had no teen pregnancy, 3.8% had a live birth, 2.6% had abortion, and < 1% had a pregnancy loss. Women with a history of adolescent pregnancy were less likely to complete high school regardless of the outcome of that pregnancy. The probability of dropping out of high school was 7.5% for women with no history of adolescent pregnancy; after adjusting for individual, household, and neighborhood characteristics, the probability of dropping out of high school was 14.2 percentage points (pp) higher (95% CI 12.0-16.5) for women with live birth, 7.6 pp. higher (95% CI 1.5-13.7) for women with a pregnancy loss, and 6.9 pp. higher (95% CI 5.2-8.6) for women who had abortion. They key risk factors for never completing high school are poor or average school performance in 9th grade. Women who had a live births during adolescence were much more likely to receive income assistance than any other group in the sample. Aside from poor school performance, growing up in poor households and in poor neighborhoods were also highly predictive of receiving income assistance during adulthood. DISCUSSION: The administrative data used in this study enabled us to assess the relationship between adolescent pregnancy and adult outcomes after controlling for a rich set of individual-, household-, and neighborhood-level characteristics. Adolescent pregnancy was associated with higher risk of never completing high school regardless of the pregnancy outcome. Receipt of income assistance was significantly higher for women having a live birth, but only marginally higher for those who had a pregnancy that ended in loss or termination, underlining the harsh economic consequences of caring for a child as a young mother. Our data suggest that interventions targeting young women with poor or average school marks may be especially effective public policy priorities.

Effect of universal HIV testing and treatment on socioeconomic wellbeing in rural Kenya and Uganda: a cluster-randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Universal testing and treatment for HIV has shown promise as an approach to reduce mortality and lower HIV incidence. Evidence on the economic effects of this approach on individuals and households in low-resource settings is scarce. We aimed to examine the effect of universal HIV testing and treatment on a range of economic outcomes. METHODS: We collected data in household surveys done over a 3-year period in a sample of HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults participating in a cluster-randomised trial of universal HIV testing and treatment in 32 rural communities in Kenya and Uganda. Communities of approximately 10 000 people were pair-matched on the basis of geographical and population characteristics, with the best-matching 16 pairs randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention or control groups. Participants in intervention communities received annual HIV and multidisease testing, universal antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility, and patient-centred care. Participants in control communities received baseline testing and medical care according to national guidelines. We analysed employment and health-care utilisation outcomes for working-age adults (age 18-65 years) and education outcomes for school-age children (6-17 years) using data from 3 years after the intervention. This trial is now complete, and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01864603. FINDINGS: Between July 9, 2013, and June 15, 2017, we collected survey data on 8198 working-age adults and 6755 school-age children. Compared with adults living with HIV in control communities, adults living with HIV in intervention communities were more likely to be employed (difference 9·7% [95% CI 2·1 to 18·3]), less likely to seek health care (-10·3% [-22·0 to 0·1]), and less likely to spend money on health care (-12·7% [-22·4 to 0·6]) 3 years after the intervention. We found no significant differences in outcomes between HIV-negative adults in intervention and control communities. Among children in households with HIV-positive adults, the intervention led to a 7·3% (95% CI 1·0 to 15·1) increase in primary school completion after 3 years in intervention communities compared with control communities. INTERPRETATION: Universal HIV testing and treatment improved employment outcomes and other indicators of socioeconomic wellbeing for HIV-positive adults and children in their households, but had no effect on HIV-negative adults. Our findings suggest that the considerable investments needed to expand ART access might have substantial short-term and long-term economic returns. FUNDING: National Institutes of Health.

Impact of Health Aid Investments on Public Opinion of the United States: Analysis of Global Attitude Surveys From 45 Countries, 2002-2016.

Objectives. To assess whether increasing health aid investments affected public opinion of the United States in recipient populations. Methods. We linked health aid data from the United States to nationally representative opinion poll surveys from 45 countries conducted between 2002 and 2016. We exploited the abrupt and substantial increase in health aid when the US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) and President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) were launched to assess unique changes in opinions of the United States following program onset. We also ascertained increased exposure to health aid from the United States by systematically searching for mentions of US health aid programs in popular press. Results. Favorability ratings of the United States increased within countries in proportion to health aid and were significantly higher after implementation of PEPFAR and PMI. Higher US health aid was associated with more references to that aid in the popular press. Conclusions. Our study was the first, to our knowledge, to show that US investments in health aid improved the United States' image abroad. Public Health Implications. Sustained global health investments may offer important returns to the United States as well as to the recipient populations.

High CD4 counts associated with better economic outcomes for HIV-positive adults and their HIV-negative household members in the SEARCH Trial.

BACKGROUND: Country decisions to scale-up "test and treat" approaches for HIV depend on consideration of both the health and economic consequences of such investments. Evidence about economic impacts of expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision is particularly relevant for decisions regarding foreign assistance levels for HIV/AIDS programs. We used baseline data from the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) cluster randomized controlled trial in Kenya and Uganda to examine the association between HIV status, CD4+ T-cell counts, viral suppression, and multiple indicators of economic well-being. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Socio-economic surveys were conducted in households with HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults sampled after a census of 32 communities participating in the SEARCH trial (NCT01864603). Data were obtained for 11,500 individuals from 5,884 households in study communities. Participants were stratified based on their own HIV status as well as CD4 counts and viral suppression status if they were HIV-positive. HIV-negative participants residing in households with no HIV-positive adults were considered separately from HIV-negative participants residing in households with ≥1 HIV-positive adult. Generalized estimating equation models were used to examine the relationship between HIV status, CD4 counts, ART, viral suppression, and outcomes of employment, self-reported illness, lost time from usual activities due to illness, healthcare utilization, health expenditures, and hospitalizations. In all models, HIV-negative participants in households with no HIV-positive persons were the reference group. There was no significant difference in the probability of being employed between HIV-positive participants with CD4>500 and the reference group of HIV-negative participants residing in households with no HIV-positive adults (marginal effect, ME, 1.49 percentage points; 95% confidence interval, CI, -1.09, 4.08). However, HIV-positive participants with CD4 351-500 were less likely to be employed than the reference group (ME -4.50, 95% CI -7.99, -1.01), as were HIV-positive participants with CD4 ≤350 (ME -7.41, 95% CI -10.96, -3.85). Similarly, there was no significant difference in employment likelihood between HIV-negative participants who resided in households with a CD4>500 HIV-positive person and the reference group (ME -1.78, 95% CI -5.16, 1.59). HIV-negative participants residing with an HIV-positive person with CD4 351-500, however, were less likely to be employed than the reference group (ME -7.03, 95% CI -11.49, -2.57), as were people residing with a household member with CD4 ≤350 (ME -6.28, 95% CI -10.76, -1.80). HIV-positive participants in all CD4 categories were more likely to have lost time from usual activities due to illness and have incurred healthcare expenditures. Those with CD4>500 had better economic outcomes than those with CD4 351-500, even among those not virally suppressed (p = 0.004) and not on ART (p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Data from a large population-representative sample of households in east Africa showed a strong association between the health of HIV-positive persons and economic outcomes. The findings suggest there may be economic benefits associated with maintaining high CD4 counts, both for HIV-positive persons and their HIV-negative household members. The association of high CD4 counts with improved outcomes is consistent with the hypothesis that early ART initiation can avert declines in employment and other economic outcomes. Prospective longitudinal evaluation is needed to assess the causal impact of early ART initiation on economic functioning of households.

The US President's Malaria Initiative and under-5 child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: A difference-in-differences analysis.

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial financial contributions by the United States President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) since 2006, no studies have carefully assessed how this program may have affected important population-level health outcomes. We utilized multiple publicly available data sources to evaluate the association between introduction of PMI and child mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used difference-in-differences analyses to compare trends in the primary outcome of under-5 mortality rates and secondary outcomes reflecting population coverage of malaria interventions in 19 PMI-recipient and 13 non-recipient countries between 1995 and 2014. The analyses controlled for presence and intensity of other large funding sources, individual and household characteristics, and country and year fixed effects. PMI program implementation was associated with a significant reduction in the annual risk of under-5 child mortality (adjusted risk ratio [RR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.74-0.96). Each dollar of per-capita PMI expenditures in a country, a measure of PMI intensity, was also associated with a reduction in child mortality (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.78-0.93). We estimated that the under-5 mortality rate in PMI countries was reduced from 28.9 to 24.3 per 1,000 person-years. Population coverage of insecticide-treated nets increased by 8.34 percentage points (95% CI 0.86-15.83) and coverage of indoor residual spraying increased by 6.63 percentage points (95% CI 0.79-12.47) after PMI implementation. Per-capita PMI spending was also associated with a modest increase in artemisinin-based combination therapy coverage (3.56 percentage point increase, 95% CI -0.07-7.19), though this association was only marginally significant (p = 0.054). Our results were robust to several sensitivity analyses. Because our study design leaves open the possibility of unmeasured confounding, we cannot definitively interpret these results as causal. CONCLUSIONS: PMI may have significantly contributed to reducing the burden of malaria in SSA and reducing the number of child deaths in the region. Introduction of PMI was associated with increased coverage of malaria prevention technologies, which are important mechanisms through which child mortality can be reduced. To our knowledge, this study is the first to assess the association between PMI and all-cause child mortality in SSA with the use of appropriate comparison groups and adjustments for regional trends in child mortality.

Expectations about future health and longevity in Kenyan and Ugandan communities receiving a universal test-and-treat intervention in the SEARCH trial.

Expectations about future health and longevity are important determinants of individuals' decisions to invest in physical and human capital. Few population-level studies have measured subjective expectations and examined how they are affected by scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We assessed these expectations in communities receiving annual HIV testing and universal ART. Longitudinal data on expectations were collected at baseline and one year later in 16 intervention communities participating in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) trial of the test and treat strategy in Kenya and Uganda (NCT01864603). A random sample of households with and without an HIV-positive adult was selected after baseline HIV testing. Individuals' expectations about survival to 50, 60, 70, and 80 years of age, as well as future health status and economic well-being, were measured using a Likert scale. Primary outcomes were binary variables indicating participants who reported being very likely or almost certain to survive to advanced ages. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine trends in expectations as well as associations with HIV status and viral load for HIV-positive individuals. Data were obtained from 3126 adults at baseline and 3977 adults in year 1, with 2926 adults participating in both waves. HIV-negative adults were more likely to have favorable expectations about survival to 60 years than HIV-positive adults with detectable viral load (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.87, 95% CI 1.53-2.30), as were HIV-positive adults with undetectable viral load (AOR 1.41, 95% CI 1.13-1.77). Favorable expectations about survival to 60 years were more likely for all groups in year 1 compared to baseline (AOR 1.53, 95% CI 1.31-1.77). These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that universal ART leads to improved population-level expectations about future health and well-being. Future research from the SEARCH trial will help determine whether these changes are causally driven by the provision of universal ART.

Association between HIV programs and quality of maternal health inputs and processes in Kenya.

We assessed whether quality of maternal and newborn health services is influenced by presence of HIV programs at Kenyan health facilities using data from a national facility survey. Facilities that provided services to prevent mother-to-child HIV transmission had better prenatal and postnatal care inputs, such as infrastructure and supplies, and those providing antiretroviral therapy had better quality of prenatal and postnatal care processes. HIV-related programs may have benefits for quality of care for related services in the health system.

Low risk of attrition among adults on antiretroviral therapy in the Rwandan national program: a retrospective cohort analysis of 6, 12, and 18 month outcomes.

BACKGROUND: We report levels and determinants of attrition in Rwanda, one of the few African countries with universal ART access. METHODS: We analyzed data abstracted from health facility records of a nationally representative sample of adults [≥ 18 years] who initiated ART 6, 12, and 18 months prior to data collection; and collected facility characteristics with a health facility assessment questionnaire. Weighted proportions and rates of attrition [loss to follow-up or death] were calculated, and patient- and health facility-level factors associated with attrition examined using Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: 1678 adults initiated ART 6, 12 and 18 months prior to data collection, with 1508 person-years [PY] on ART. Attrition was 6.8% [95% confidence interval [CI] 6.0-7.8]: 2.9% [2.4-3.5] recorded deaths and 3.9% [3.4-4.5] lost to follow-up. Population attrition rate was 7.5/100 PY [6.1-9.3]. Adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] for attrition was 4.2 [3.0-5.7] among adults enrolled from in-patient wards [vs 2.2 [1.6-3.0] from PMTCT, ref: VCT]. Compared to adults who initiated ART 18 months earlier, aHR for adults who initiated ART 12 and 6 months earlier was 1.8 [1.3-2.5] and 1.3 [0.9-1.9] respectively. Male aHR was 1.4 [1.0-1.8]. AHR of adults enrolled at urban health facilities was 1.4 [1.1-1.8, ref: rural health facilities]. AHR for adults with CD4+ ≥ 200 cells/µL vs <200 cells/µL was 0.8 [0.6-1.0]; and adults attending facilities with performance-based financing since 2004-2006 [vs. 2007-2008] had aHR 0.8 [0.6-0.9]. CONCLUSIONS: Attrition was low in the Rwandan national program. The above patient and facility correlates of attrition can be the focus of interventions to sustain high retention.

PEPFAR programs linked to more deliveries in health facilities by African women who are not infected with HIV.

HIV programs in lower-income countries have provided lifesaving care and treatment to millions of people, but their expansion has raised concerns that these programs may have diverted health workers, management attention, and infrastructure investments from other health priorities, such as high maternal mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. We assessed the effect of HIV programs supported by the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) on maternal health services for women not infected with HIV in 257 health facilities in eight African countries in 2007-11. Controlling for other variables, we found that having more patients on antiretroviral treatment and HIV-related infrastructure investments, such as on-site laboratories at health clinics, were associated with more deliveries at health facilities by women not infected with HIV. This association is consistent with the hypothesis that PEPFAR-funded infrastructure may also support other health services and that the program may have laid the foundation for improving health system performance in maternal health overall. We recommend that lessons learned from the rapid expansion of HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa should be drawn on to increase the provision of maternal and newborn health care and other high-priority health services, such as the treatment of diabetes, hypertension, and other chronic, noncommunicable diseases.

A controlled longitudinal 5-year follow-up study of children at high and low risk for panic disorder and major depression.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the longitudinal course of psychiatric disorders in children of parents with panic disorder (PD) and major depression (MD) as they transition through the period of risk from childhood into adolescence. METHOD: Over a 5-year follow-up, we compared psychiatric disorders in four groups of children: (1) offspring of parents with PD plus MD (n=136); (2) offspring of parents with PD without MD (n=27); (3) offspring of parents with MD but without PD (n=53); and (4) offspring of non-PD non-MD parents (n=103). RESULTS: Parental PD was significantly associated with increased risk for anxiety disorders, irrespective of parental MD. Parental MD was associated with increased risk for MD, disruptive behavior disorders, and deficits in psychosocial functioning, irrespective of parental PD. CONCLUSIONS: These longitudinal findings confirm and extend previous cross-sectional results documenting significant associations between PD and MD in parents and patterns of psychopathology and dysfunction in their offspring.