Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Air travel monitoring does not accelerate outbreak detection in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.

Quantitatively assessing early detection strategies for mitigating COVID-19 and future pandemics.

Researchers and policymakers have proposed systems to detect novel pathogens earlier than existing surveillance systems by monitoring samples from hospital patients, wastewater, and air travel, in order to mitigate future pandemics. How much benefit would such systems offer? We developed, empirically validated, and mathematically characterized a quantitative model that simulates disease spread and detection time for any given disease and detection system. We find that hospital monitoring could have detected COVID-19 in Wuhan 0.4 weeks earlier than it was actually discovered, at 2,300 cases (standard error: 76 cases) compared to 3,400 (standard error: 161 cases). Wastewater monitoring would not have accelerated COVID-19 detection in Wuhan, but provides benefit in smaller catchments and for asymptomatic or long-incubation diseases like polio or HIV/AIDS. Monitoring of air travel provides little benefit in most scenarios we evaluated. In sum, early detection systems can substantially mitigate some future pandemics, but would not have changed the course of COVID-19.

Modeling and analysis of the macronutrient signaling network in budding yeast.

Adaptive modulation of the global cellular growth state of unicellular organisms is crucial for their survival in fluctuating nutrient environments. Because these organisms must be able to respond reliably to ever varying and unpredictable nutritional conditions, their nutrient signaling networks must have a certain inbuilt robustness. In eukaryotes, such as the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, distinct nutrient signals are relayed by specific plasma membrane receptors to signal transduction pathways that are interconnected in complex information-processing networks, which have been well characterized. However, the complexity of the signaling network confounds the interpretation of the overall regulatory "logic" of the control system. Here, we propose a literature-curated molecular mechanism of the integrated nutrient signaling network in budding yeast, focusing on early temporal responses to carbon and nitrogen signaling. We build a computational model of this network to reconcile literature-curated quantitative experimental data with our proposed molecular mechanism. We evaluate the robustness of our estimates of the model's kinetic parameter values. We test the model by comparing predictions made in mutant strains with qualitative experimental observations made in the same strains. Finally, we use the model to predict nutrient-responsive transcription factor activities in a number of mutant strains undergoing complex nutrient shifts.

Overcoming the Challenges to Enhancing Experimental Plant Biology With Computational Modeling.

The study of complex biological systems necessitates computational modeling approaches that are currently underutilized in plant biology. Many plant biologists have trouble identifying or adopting modeling methods to their research, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. Here we address challenges that limit the use of computational modeling methods, particularly mechanistic mathematical modeling. We divide computational modeling techniques into either pattern models (e.g., bioinformatics, machine learning, or morphology) or mechanistic mathematical models (e.g., biochemical reactions, biophysics, or population models), which both contribute to plant biology research at different scales to answer different research questions. We present arguments and recommendations for the increased adoption of modeling by plant biologists interested in incorporating more modeling into their research programs. As some researchers find math and quantitative methods to be an obstacle to modeling, we provide suggestions for easy-to-use tools for non-specialists and for collaboration with specialists. This may especially be the case for mechanistic mathematical modeling, and we spend some extra time discussing this. Through a more thorough appreciation and awareness of the power of different kinds of modeling in plant biology, we hope to facilitate interdisciplinary, transformative research.

Benchmarking algorithms for gene regulatory network inference from single-cell transcriptomic data.

We present a systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art algorithms for inferring gene regulatory networks from single-cell transcriptional data. As the ground truth for assessing accuracy, we use synthetic networks with predictable trajectories, literature-curated Boolean models and diverse transcriptional regulatory networks. We develop a strategy to simulate single-cell transcriptional data from synthetic and Boolean networks that avoids pitfalls of previously used methods. Furthermore, we collect networks from multiple experimental single-cell RNA-seq datasets. We develop an evaluation framework called BEELINE. We find that the area under the precision-recall curve and early precision of the algorithms are moderate. The methods are better in recovering interactions in synthetic networks than Boolean models. The algorithms with the best early precision values for Boolean models also perform well on experimental datasets. Techniques that do not require pseudotime-ordered cells are generally more accurate. Based on these results, we present recommendations to end users. BEELINE will aid the development of gene regulatory network inference algorithms.