Outbreak of Ralstonia pickettii associated with contamination of saline products distributed internationally, the United Kingdom, 2024.

We describe an outbreak of Ralstonia pickettii in the United Kingdom, with isolates genetically indistinguishable from a 2023 Australian outbreak linked to internationally distributed saline solutions. Confirmed cases (n = 3) had bacteraemia, clinically relevant infection, indwelling venous lines and frequent healthcare contact. Multi-stakeholder intervention was required including product recall and risk communications. We recommend a low threshold for investigating clusters of Ralstonia species and similar opportunistic pathogens, considering contaminated product sources. Effective mitigation requires multi-agency partnership and international collaboration.

Cardiovascular events in CML patients treated with Nilotinib: validation of the HFA-ICOS baseline risk score.

BACKGROUND: The therapeutic landscape of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) has been transformed by tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI). Nilotinib, showed higher rates of major molecular response than imatinib, however associated with higher cardiovascular (CV) toxicity. We sought to describe the CV events associated with nilotinib in a real-world population and assess the predictive value of the HFA-ICOS risk score. METHODS: The HFA-ICOS baseline risk was calculated for patients with CML treated with nilotinib beween 2006 and 2021. The primary end point was the incidence of all CV events. The secondary end point was the incidence of ischaemic events. Survival analysis evaluated the risk (hazard ratio [HR]) of events stratified by baseline risk category, whilst on nilotinib therapy. RESULTS: Two hundred and twenty-nine eligible patients were included. The incidence of CV events was 20.9% (95% CI: 15.7-26.2%) following a median duration of treatment of 34.4 months. The secondary end point occurred in 12.7% (95% CI: 8.4-16.9%) of the population. Patients with higher HFA-ICOS baseline score had higher rates of CV events (low: 11.2%, medium: 28.2% [HR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.17-5.66], high/very high: 32.4% [HR: 3.57, 95% CI: 1.77-7.20]) and ischaemic events (low: 5.20%, medium: 17.9% [HR: 2.19, 95% CI: 0.97-4.96], high/very high: 21.6% [HR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.91-7.89]). In patients who did not have a CV event, the median total dose at last follow up or cessation of nilotinib therapy was lower when compared to the total daily median dose of nilotinib in patients who had a CV event (450 mg vs. 600 mg, p = 0.0074). CONCLUSIONS: The HFA-ICOS risk stratification tool is an efficient discriminator at low, medium and high/very high risk of developing cardiovascular events, with an overall positive trend towards increasing cardiotoxicity rates with rising risk catergories. This study provides evidence to support the use of this predictive tool in nilotinib treated patients.

LLIN Evaluation in Uganda Project (LLINEUP): modelling the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions on delivery of long-lasting insecticidal nets on malaria indicators in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Disruptions in malaria control due to COVID-19 mitigation measures were predicted to increase malaria morbidity and mortality in Africa substantially. In Uganda, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) are distributed nationwide every 3-4 years, but the 2020-2021 campaign was altered because of COVID-19 restrictions so that the timing of delivery of new nets was different from the original plans made by the National Malaria Control Programme. METHODS: A transmission dynamics modelling exercise was conducted to explore how the altered delivery of LLINs in 2020-2021 impacted malaria burden in Uganda. Data were available on the planned LLIN distribution schedule for 2020-2021, and the actual delivery. The transmission model was used to simulate 100 health sub-districts, and parameterized to match understanding of local mosquito bionomics, net use estimates, and seasonal patterns based on data collected in 2017-2019 during a cluster-randomized trial (LLINEUP). Two scenarios were compared; simulated LLIN distributions matching the actual delivery schedule, and a comparable scenario simulating LLIN distributions as originally planned. Model parameters were otherwise matched between simulations. RESULTS: Approximately 70% of the study population received LLINs later than scheduled in 2020-2021, although some areas received LLINs earlier than planned. The model indicates that malaria incidence in 2020 was substantially higher in areas that received LLINs late. In some areas, early distribution of LLINs appeared less effective than the original distribution schedule, possibly due to attrition of LLINs prior to transmission peaks, and waning LLIN efficacy after distribution. On average, the model simulations predicted broadly similar overall mean malaria incidence in 2021 and 2022. After accounting for differences in cluster population size and LLIN distribution dates, no substantial increase in malaria burden was detected. CONCLUSIONS: The model results suggest that the disruptions in the 2020-2021 LLIN distribution campaign in Uganda did not substantially increase malaria burden in the study areas.

LLIN evaluation in Uganda project (LLINEUP2): association between housing construction and malaria burden in 32 districts.

BACKGROUND: Well-built housing limits mosquito entry and can reduce malaria transmission. The association between community-level housing and malaria burden in Uganda was assessed using data from randomly selected households near 64 health facilities in 32 districts. METHODS: Houses were classified as 'improved' (synthetic walls and roofs, eaves closed or absent) or 'less-improved' (all other construction). Associations between housing and parasitaemia were made using mixed effects logistic regression (individual-level) and multivariable fractional response logistic regression (community-level), and between housing and malaria incidence using multivariable Poisson regression. RESULTS: Between November 2021 and March 2022, 4.893 children aged 2-10 years were enrolled from 3.518 houses; of these, 1.389 (39.5%) were classified as improved. Children living in improved houses had 58% lower odds (adjusted odds ratio = 0.42, 95% CI 0.33-0.53, p < 0.0001) of parasitaemia than children living in less-improved houses. Communities with > 67% of houses improved had a 63% lower parasite prevalence (adjusted prevalence ratio 0.37, 95% CI 0.19-0.70, p < 0.0021) and 60% lower malaria incidence (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.40, 95% CI 0.36-0.44, p < 0.0001) compared to communities with < 39% of houses improved. CONCLUSIONS: Improved housing was strongly associated with lower malaria burden across a range of settings in Uganda and should be utilized for malaria control.

Characterization of the plasma metabolome and lipidome in response to sleeve gastrectomy and gastric bypass surgeries reveals molecular patterns of surgical weight loss.

OBJECTIVES: Bariatric surgery improves metabolic health, but the underlying mechanisms are not fully understood. We analyzed the effects of two types of bariatric surgery, sleeve gastrectomy (SG) and Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB), on the plasma metabolome and lipidome. METHODS: We characterized the plasma metabolome (1268 metabolites) and lipidome (953 lipids) pre-operatively and at 3 and 12 months post-operatively in 104 obese adults who were previously recruited to a prospective cohort of bariatric surgery. The metabolomic and lipidomic responses to bariatric surgery over time were analyzed using multivariable linear mixed-effects models. RESULTS: There were significant changes in multiple metabolites and lipids, including rapid early changes in amino acid and peptide metabolites, including decreases in branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs), aromatic AAs, alanine and aspartate, and increases in glycine, serine, arginine and citrulline. There were also significant decreases in many triglyceride species, with increases in phosphatidylcholines and phosphatidylethanolamines. There were significant changes in metabolites related to energy metabolism that were apparent only after 12 months. We observed differences by bariatric surgery type in the changes in a small number of primary and secondary bile acids, including glycohyocholate and glyco-beta-muricholate. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings highlight the comprehensive changes in metabolites and lipids that occur over the 12 months following bariatric surgery. While both SG and RYGB caused profound changes in the metabolome and lipidome, RYGB was characterized by greater increases in bile acids following surgery.

Pilot evaluation of the Fiscal Mapping Process for sustainable financing of evidence-based youth mental health treatments: A comparative case study analysis.

Background: Sustained delivery of evidence-based treatments (EBTs) is essential to addressing the public health impacts of youth mental health problems, but is complicated by the limited and fragmented funding available to youth mental health service agencies. Supports are needed that can guide service agencies in accessing sustainable funding for EBTs. We conducted a pilot evaluation of the Fiscal Mapping Process, an Excel-based strategic planning tool that helps service agency leaders identify and coordinate financing strategies for their EBT programs. Method: Pilot testing of the Fiscal Mapping Process was completed with 10 youth mental health service agencies over a 12-month period, using trauma-focused cognitive-behavioral therapy or parent-child interaction therapy programs. Service agency representatives received initial training and monthly coaching in using the tool. We used case study methods to synthesize all available data (surveys, focus groups, coaching notes, document review) and contrast agency experiences to identify key findings through explanation building. Results: Key evaluation findings related to the process and outcomes of using the Fiscal Mapping Process, as well as contextual influences. Process evaluation findings helped clarify the primary use case for the tool and identified the importance-and challenges-of engaging external collaborators. Outcome evaluation findings documented the impacts of the Fiscal Mapping Process on agency-reported sustainment capacities (strategic planning, funding stability), which fully explained reported improvements in outcomes (extent and likelihood)-although these impacts were incremental. Findings on contextual factors documented the influence of environmental and organizational capacities on engagement with the tool and concerns about equitable impacts, but also the view that the process could usefully generalize to other EBTs. Conclusions: Our pilot evaluation of the Fiscal Mapping Process was promising. In future work, we plan to integrate the tool into EBT implementation initiatives and test its impact on long-term sustainment outcomes across various EBTs, while increasing attention to equity considerations.

Pilot-Testing a Tool for Planning the Sustainable Financing of Youth Mental Health Treatments that Work Plain Language Summary Youth mental health treatments that work must be consistently available to improve youth mental health in our communities, but funding for these treatments is often limited and hard to access. Youth mental health service agencies need tools that can help guide them in accessing sustainable funding for evidence-based treatments. We developed the Fiscal Mapping Process, an Excel-based strategic planning tool for planning sustainable financing of youth mental health treatment programs, and conducted a 1-year pilot-testing evaluation with 10 youth mental health service agencies. We used case study methods to compare and contrast agency experiences with using the tool, related to the process, outcomes, and contextual influences on using the Fiscal Mapping Process. Key findings included clarification of the ideal characteristics of contributors and treatment programs for using the tool; initial confirmation that the tool can improve agency-reported capacities for sustaining treatments that work and long-term sustainment outlooks, although these impacts were incremental; and documentation of the influence of environmental and organizational capacities on engagement with the tool, concerns about equitable impacts, and user views that the process could be applied to a wide range of treatment models. In summary, our pilot evaluation of the Fiscal Mapping Process showed that this tool is promising for supporting the financial sustainment of treatments that work in youth mental health services. In future research, we plan to incorporate the tool into real-world training initiatives with mental health service agencies, test its impact on long-term sustainment across a variety of treatment models, and incorporate attention to equity considerations.

Genotype-based "virtual" metabolomics in a clinical biobank identifies novel metabolite-disease associations.

Introduction: Circulating metabolites act as biomarkers of dysregulated metabolism and may inform disease pathophysiology. A portion of the inter-individual variability in circulating metabolites is influenced by common genetic variation. We evaluated whether a genetics-based "virtual" metabolomics approach can identify novel metabolite-disease associations. Methods: We examined the association between polygenic scores for 724 metabolites with 1,247 clinical phenotypes in the BioVU DNA biobank, comprising 57,735 European ancestry and 15,754 African ancestry participants. We applied Mendelian randomization (MR) to probe significant relationships and validated significant MR associations using independent GWAS of candidate phenotypes. Results and Discussion: We found significant associations between 336 metabolites and 168 phenotypes in European ancestry and 107 metabolites and 56 phenotypes in African ancestry. Of these metabolite-disease pairs, MR analyses confirmed associations between 73 metabolites and 53 phenotypes in European ancestry. Of 22 metabolitephenotype pairs evaluated for replication in independent GWAS, 16 were significant (false discovery rate p < 0.05). These included associations between bilirubin and X-21796 with cholelithiasis, phosphatidylcholine (16:0/22:5n3,18:1/20:4) and arachidonate with inflammatory bowel disease and Crohn's disease, and campesterol with coronary artery disease and myocardial infarction. These associations may represent biomarkers or potentially targetable mediators of disease risk.

Klebsiella pneumoniae sequence type 147: a high-risk clone increasingly associated with plasmids carrying both resistance and virulence elements.

Introduction. The first hybrid resistance/virulence plasmid, combining elements from virulence plasmids described in hypervirulent types of Klebsiella pneumoniae with those from conjugative resistance plasmids, was described in an isolate of sequence type (ST) 147 from 2016. Subsequently, this type has been increasingly associated with these plasmids.Hypothesis or gap statement. The extent of carriage of hybrid virulence/resistance plasmids in nosocomial isolates of K. pneumoniae requires further investigation.Aim. To describe the occurrence of virulence/resistance plasmids among isolates of K. pneumoniae received by the UK reference laboratory, particularly among representatives of ST147, and to compare their sequences.Methodology. Isolates received by the laboratory during 2022 and the first half of 2023 (n=1278) were screened for virulence plasmids by PCR detection of rmpA/rmpA2 and typed by variable-number tandem repeat analysis. Twenty-nine representatives of ST147 (including a single-locus variant) from seven hospital laboratories were subjected to long-read nanopore sequencing using high-accuracy q20 chemistry to provide complete assemblies.Results. rmpA/rmpA2 were detected in 110 isolates, of which 59 belonged to hypervirulent K1-ST23, K2-ST86 and K2-ST65/375. Of the remainder, representatives of ST147 formed the largest group, with 22 rmpA/rmpA2-positive representatives (out of 47 isolates). Representatives were from 19 hospital laboratories, with rmpA/rmpA2-positive isolates from 10. Nanopore sequencing of 29 representatives of ST147 divided them into those with no virulence plasmid (n=12), those with non-New Delhi metallo-ß-lactamase (NDM) virulence plasmids (n=6) and those carrying bla NDM-5 (n=9) or bla NDM-1 (n=2) virulence plasmids. These plasmids were of IncFIB(pNDM-Mar)/IncHI1B(pNDM-MAR) replicon types. Most of the non-NDM virulence plasmids were highly similar to the originally described KpvST147L_NDM plasmid. Those carrying bla NDM-5 were highly similar to one another and to previously described plasmids in ST383 and carried an extensive array of resistance genes. Comparison of the fully assembled chromosomes indicated multiple introductions of ST147 in UK hospitals.Conclusion. This study highlights the high proportion of representatives of ST147 that carry IncFIB(pNDM-Mar)/IncHI1B(pNDM-MAR) hybrid resistance virulence plasmids. It is important to be aware of the high probability that representatives of this type carry these plasmids combining resistance and virulence determinants and of the consequent increased risk to patients.

Time to care and factors influencing appropriate Sudan virus disease care among case patients in Uganda, September to November 2022.

OBJECTIVES: Early isolation and care for Ebola disease patients at Ebola Treatment Units (ETU) curb outbreak spread. We evaluated time to ETU entry and associated factors during the 2022 Sudan virus disease (SVD) outbreak in Uganda. METHODS: We included persons with RT-PCR-confirmed SVD with onset September 20-November 30, 2022. We categorized days from symptom onset to ETU entry ("delays") as short (≤2), moderate (3-5), and long (≥6); the latter two were "delayed isolation." We categorized symptom onset timing as "earlier" or "later," using October 15 as a cut-off. We assessed demographics, symptom onset timing, and awareness of contact status as predictors for delayed isolation. We explored reasons for early vs late isolation using key informant interviews. RESULTS: Among 118 case-patients, 25 (21%) had short, 43 (36%) moderate, and 50 (43%) long delays. Seventy-five (64%) had symptom onset later in the outbreak. Earlier symptom onset increased risk of delayed isolation (crude risk ratio = 1.8, 95% confidence interval (1.2-2.8]). Awareness of contact status and SVD symptoms, and belief that early treatment-seeking was lifesaving facilitated early care-seeking. Patients with long delays reported fear of ETUs and lack of transport as contributors. CONCLUSION: Delayed isolation was common early in the outbreak. Strong contact tracing and community engagement could expedite presentation to ETUs.

The consumption of animal products is associated with plasma levels of alpha-aminoadipic acid (2-AAA).

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The cardiometabolic disease-associated metabolite, alpha-aminoadipic acid (2-AAA) is formed from the breakdown of the essential dietary amino acid lysine. However, it was not known whether elevated plasma levels of 2-AAA are related to dietary nutrient intake. We aimed to determine whether diet is a determinant of circulating 2-AAA in healthy individuals, and whether 2-AAA is altered in response to dietary modification. METHODS AND RESULTS: We investigated the association between 2-AAA and dietary nutrient intake in a cross-sectional study of healthy individuals (N = 254). We then performed a randomized cross-over dietary intervention trial to investigate the effect of lysine supplementation (1 week) on 2-AAA in healthy individuals (N = 40). We further assessed the effect of a vegetarian diet on 2-AAA in a short-term (4-day) dietary intervention trial in healthy omnivorous women (N = 35). We found that self-reported dietary intake of animal products, including meat, poultry, and seafood, was associated with higher plasma 2-AAA cross-sectionally (P < 0.0001). Supplementary dietary lysine (5g/day) caused no significant increase in plasma 2-AAA; however, plasma 2-AAA was altered by general dietary modification. Further, plasma 2-AAA was significantly reduced by a short-term vegetarian diet (P = 0.003). CONCLUSION: We identified associations between plasma 2-AAA and consumption of animal products, which were validated in a vegetarian dietary intervention trial, but not in a trial designed to specifically increase the 2-AAA amino acid precursor lysine. Further studies are warranted to investigate whether implementation of a vegetarian diet improves cardiometabolic risk in individuals with elevated 2-AAA.

Optometrists who leave the profession in Australia: 2011 to 2019.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The number, demographics, registration status and geographic distribution of optometrists in Australia who do not renew their registration is reported. BACKGROUND: The size of the optometry workforce in Australia is determined by the number of new entrants to the profession and the number of optometrists leaving it. Limited attention has been paid to the latter. METHODS: A dataset obtained from the Australian Health Practitioner Registration Agency about registered optometrists during the period 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2019 was analysed. It included registrants' first year of registration, gender, year of birth (in five-year bands), optometry qualification; and annual collection of registration type and postcode of principal place of practice. RESULTS: Data for 6,595 registrants were analysed. Over the study period, 626 optometrists left the register. When those leaving the register were examined by year of birth bands, two main groups emerged - optometrists aged in their fifties or older, and optometrists who were under forty years of age and disproportionately male. Registration type had a significant effect on whether a registrant left or remained on the register (p < 0.05). Those holding Non-practising Registration or Limited Registration were more likely to leave the register. Registrants with an optometry qualification from an overseas institution, including from New Zealand, were more likely to leave the register (p < 0.05). Optometrists whose registration was not endorsed were more likely to leave the register (p < 0.05). No significant difference was found when the geographic location of optometrists who left the register was compared with those who remained. CONCLUSION: Optometrists who left the register fell into two main groups - late-career and early-career. An unanticipated finding was that younger optometrists who left the register were disproportionately male. What motivates optometrists in Australia to leave the register is worthy of future research.

Treatment-free remission in CML patients with additional chromosome abnormalities in the Philadelphia-positive clone or variant Philadelphia translocations.

Probability of treatment-free remission (TFR) in CML patients with additional chromosomal abnormalities (ACA) in the Philadelphia-positive clone or variant Philadelphia translocations (ACA/Var-Ph group, blue panel), in those with no cytogenetic abnormality other than the classical Philadelphia translocation (c-Ph group, green panel) and in the subgroups of CML patients with high-risk ACA (HR-ACA, yellow panel) and Var-Ph (red panel).

Novel Oral Poliovirus Vaccine 2 Safety Evaluation during Nationwide Supplemental Immunization Activity, Uganda, 2022.

Given its enhanced genetic stability, novel oral poliovirus vaccine type 2 was deployed for type 2 poliovirus outbreak responses under World Health Organization Emergency Use Listing. We evaluated the safety profile of this vaccine. No safety signals were identified using a multipronged approach of passive and active surveillance.

Autoimmune hepatitis: Brighton Collaboration case definition and guidelines for data collection, analysis, and presentation of immunisation safety data.

This report introduces a Brighton Collaboration (BC) case definition for autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), which has been classified as a priority adverse event of special interest (AESI), as there were possible cases seen following COVID-19 vaccination. The case definition was developed by a group of subject matter and BC process experts to facilitate safety data comparability across pre- and post-licensure clinical trials, as well as pharmacovigilance activities in multiple settings with diverse resources and healthcare access. The usual BC case definition development process was followed in an expedited manner, and took two months to complete, including finalising the manuscript for publication, instead of the usual 1 year development time. It includes a systematic review of the literature and an expert consensus to define levels of diagnostic certainty for AIH, and provides specific guidelines for data collection and analysis. Histology, serological and biochemical tests and exclusion of alternate diagnosis were considered necessary to define the levels of certainty (definitive, probable and possible). AEFI reports of suspected AIH were independently classified by the WG members to test its useability and these classifications were used to finalise the case definition. The document underwent peer review by external AIH experts and a Reference Group of vaccine safety stakeholders in high-, low- and middle-income countries to ensure case definition useability, applicability, and scientific integrity. The expedited process can be replicated for development of other standardised case definitions for priority AESIs for endemics and epidemics. While applicable to cases reported following immunisation, the case definition is independent of lapsed time following vaccination and, as such, can also be used to determine background incidence for vaccinated and unvaccinated control groups in studies of causal association. While use of this case definition is also appropriate for the study of safety of other products including drugs, it is not meant to guide clinical case management.

Long-term outcomes after upfront second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors for chronic myeloid leukemia: managing intolerance and resistance.

Second-generation tyrosine kinase inhibitors (2GTKI) are more effective in inducing rapid molecular responses than imatinib when used first-line in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). However, failure of first line-2GTKI (1L-2GTKI) still occurs and there is no consensus regarding subsequent management. We retrospectively analyzed the outcome of 106 CML-CP patients treated with 1L-2GTKI and with a median follow-up of 91 months. 45 patients (42.4%) switched to an alternative TKI, 28 for intolerance (26.4%) and 17 (16%) for resistance. Most patients who remained on 1L-2GTKI achieved deep molecular responses (DMR) and 15 (14.1%) are in treatment-free remission (TFR). Intolerant patients also obtained DMR, although most required multiple TKI changes and were slower to respond, particularly if treated with 2L-imatinib. Inferior outcomes were observed in resistant patients, who failed alternative 2L-2GTKI and required 3/4GTKI and/or allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (alloSCT). 7yr-OS was significantly lower for these individuals (66.1%) than for intolerant patients and those who remained on 1L-2GTKI (100% and 97.9%, respectively; p = 0.001). It is apparent that failure of 1L-2GTKI is a challenging problem in modern CML therapy. Intolerance can be effectively managed by switching to an alternative 2GTKI, but resistance requires early consideration of 3/4GTKI.

Integrated analysis of patient networks and plasmid genomes reveals a regional, multi-species outbreak of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales carrying both blaIMP and mcr-9 genes.

BACKGROUND: Carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE) are challenging in healthcare, with resistance to multiple classes of antibiotics. This study describes the emergence of IMP-encoding CPE amongst diverse Enterobacterales species between 2016 and 2019 across a London regional network. METHODS: We performed a network analysis of patient pathways, using electronic health records, to identify contacts between IMP-encoding CPE positive patients. Genomes of IMP-encoding CPE isolates were overlayed with patient contacts to imply potential transmission events. RESULTS: Genomic analysis of 84 Enterobacterales isolates revealed diverse species (predominantly Klebsiella spp, Enterobacter spp, E. coli); 86% (72/84) harboured an IncHI2 plasmid carrying blaIMP and colistin resistance gene mcr-9 (68/72). Phylogenetic analysis of IncHI2 plasmids identified three lineages showing significant association with patient contacts and movements between four hospital sites and across medical specialities, which was missed on initial investigations. CONCLUSIONS: Combined, our patient network and plasmid analyses demonstrate an interspecies, plasmid-mediated outbreak of blaIMPCPE, which remained unidentified during standard investigations. With DNA sequencing and multi-modal data incorporation, the outbreak investigation approach proposed here provides a framework for real-time identification of key factors causing pathogen spread. Plasmid-level outbreak analysis reveals that resistance spread may be wider than suspected, allowing more interventions to stop transmission within hospital networks.

Branched-chain amino acids and type 2 diabetes: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization analysis.

OBJECTIVE: Genetic studies have suggested that the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs) valine, leucine, and isoleucine have a causal association with type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, inferences are based on a limited number of genetic loci associated with BCAAs. METHODS: Instrumental variables (IVs) for each BCAA were constructed and validated using large well-powered data sets and their association with T2D was tested using a two-sample inverse-variance weighted Mendelian randomization approach. Sensitivity analyses were performed to ensure the accuracy of the findings. A reverse association was assessed using instrumental variables for T2D. RESULTS: Estimated effect sizes between BCAA IVs and T2D, excluding outliers, were as follows: valine (ß = 0.14 change in log-odds per SD change in valine, 95% CI: -0.06 to 0.33, p = 0.17), leucine (ß = 0.15, 95% CI: -0.02 to 0.32, p = 0.09), and isoleucine (ß = 0.13, 95% CI: -0.08 to 0.34, p = 0.24). In contrast, T2D IVs were positively associated with each BCAA, i.e., valine (ß = 0.08 per SD change in levels per log-odds change in T2D, 95% CI: 0.05 to 0.10, p = 1.8 × 10-9 ), leucine (ß = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.09, p = 4.5 × 10-8 ), and isoleucine (ß = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.04 to 0.08, p = 2.8 × 10-8 ). CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that the BCAAs are not mediators of T2D risk but are biomarkers of diabetes.

Evaluation of malaria outbreak detection methods, Uganda, 2022.

BACKGROUND: Malaria outbreaks are detected by applying the World Health Organization (WHO)-recommended thresholds (the less sensitive 75th percentile or mean + 2 standard deviations [2SD] for medium-to high-transmission areas, and the more sensitive cumulative sum [C-SUM] method for low and very low-transmission areas). During 2022, > 50% of districts in Uganda were in an epidemic mode according to the 75th percentile method used, resulting in a need to restrict national response to districts with the highest rates of complicated malaria. The three threshold approaches were evaluated to compare their outbreak-signaling outputs and help identify prioritization approaches and method appropriateness across Uganda. METHODS: The three methods were applied as well as adjusted approaches (85th percentile and C-SUM + 2SD) for all weeks in 2022 for 16 districts with good reporting rates ( ≥ 80%). Districts were selected from regions originally categorized as very low, low, medium, and high transmission; district thresholds were calculated based on 2017-2021 data and re-categorized them for this analysis. RESULTS: Using district-level data to categorize transmission levels resulted in re-categorization of 8/16 districts from their original transmission level categories. In all districts, more outbreak weeks were detected by the 75th percentile than the mean + 2SD method (p < 0.001). For all 9 very low or low-transmission districts, the number of outbreak weeks detected by C-SUM were similar to those detected by the 75th percentile. On adjustment of the 75th percentile method to the 85th percentile, there was no significant difference in the number of outbreak weeks detected for medium and low transmission districts. The number of outbreak weeks detected by C-SUM + 2SD was similar to those detected by the mean + 2SD method for all districts across all transmission intensities. CONCLUSION: District data may be more appropriate than regional data to categorize malaria transmission and choose epidemic threshold approaches. The 75th percentile method, meant for medium- to high-transmission areas, was as sensitive as C-SUM for low- and very low-transmission areas. For medium and high-transmission areas, more outbreak weeks were detected with the 75th percentile than the mean + 2SD method. Using the 75th percentile method for outbreak detection in all areas and the mean + 2SD for prioritization of medium- and high-transmission areas in response may be helpful.