Temporal data series and logistic models reveal the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein D614G variant in the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is caused by the worldwide spread of the RNA virus SARS-CoV-2. Because of its mutational rate, wide geographical distribution, and host response variance this coronavirus is currently evolving into an array of strains with increasing genetic diversity. Most variants apparently have neutral effects for disease spread and symptom severity. However, in the viral spike protein, which is responsible for host cell attachment and invasion, the D614G variant, containing the amino acid substitution D to G in position 614, was suggested to increase viral infection capability. Here we propose a novel method to test the epidemiological impact of emergence of a new variant, by a combination of epidemiological curves (for new cases) and the temporal variation of relative frequencies of the variants through a logistic regression model. We applied our method to temporal distributions of SARS-CoV-2 D614 or G614, in two geographic areas: USA (East Coast versus West Coast) and Europe-Asia (East Countries versus West Countries). Our analysis shows that the D614G prevalence and the growth rates of COVID-19 epidemic data curves are correlated at the early stages and not correlated at the late stages, in both the USA and Europe-Asia scenarios. These results show that logistic models can reveal the potential selective advantage of D614G, which can explain, at least in part, the impact of this variant on COVID-19 epidemiology.

Predominance of human immunodeficiency virus type 2 subtype B in Abidjan, Ivory Coast.

We analyzed the genetic variability and phylogenetic relationships among 28 HIV-2 strains collected from patients enrolled in an HIV epidemiologic study in Abidjan, Ivory Coast, during 1995-1996. Although both subtype A (n = 8; 29%) and subtype B (n = 20; 71%) were present in this sampling, the majority of infections were caused by subtype B viruses. These findings contrasted with the reported predominance of HIV-2 subtype A in other African countries. The broad genetic diversity identified among protease gene sequences for HIV-2 subtype A (6%; range 3-15%) and subtype B (7%; range, 2-12%), and their presence in Abidjan during the 1980s, document a long coexistence of two viral subtypes in Ivory Coast. Our data indicate that viruses of subtypes A and B have contributed to the HIV-2 epidemic in Ivory Coast.

Genetic variation and susceptibilities to protease inhibitors among subtype B and F isolates in Brazil.

The genetic variation of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) protease gene (prt) permits the classification of HIV-1 strains into five distinct protease subtypes, which follow the gag subtyping patterns. The susceptibilities of non-B-subtype strains to protease inhibitors (PIs) and other antiretroviral drugs remain largely unknown. Subtype F is the main non-B strain contributing to the Brazilian epidemic, accounting for 15 to 20% of these infections. In this work, we report the findings on 81 isolates from PI-naive Brazilian patients collected between 1993 and 1997. In addition, the relevant PI resistance mutations and their phenotypes were determined in vitro for 15 of these patients (B = 9 and F = 6). Among these, the subtype F samples evidenced high sensitivities in vitro to ritonavir and indinavir, with MICs at which 50 and 90% of the isolates are inhibited similar to those of both the Brazilian and the U.S. subtype B isolates. Analysis of the 81 Brazilian prt sequences demonstrated that the subtype F consensus sequence differs from the U.S. and Brazilian subtype B consensus in eight positions (I15V, E35D, M36I, R41K, R57K, Q61N, L63P, and L89M). The frequency of critical PI resistance substitutions (amino acid changes D30N, V82A/F/T, I84V, N88D, and L90M) among Brazilian isolates is very low (mean, 2.5%), and the associated secondary substitutions (amino acid positions 10L, 20K, 36M, 46M, 48G, 54I, 63P, 71A, and 77A) are infrequent. These observations document the relative rarity of resistance to PIs in the treatment of patients infected with HIV-1 subtype F in South America.

Introduction of HIV-2 and multiple HIV-1 subtypes to Lebanon.

HIV genetic variability, phylogenetic relationships, and transmission dynamics were analyzed in 26 HIV-infected patients from Lebanon. Twenty-five specimens were identified as HIV-1 and one as HIV-2 subtype B. The 25 strains were classified into six env-C2-V3 HIV-1 subtypes: B (n = 10), A (n = 11), C (n = 1), D (n = 1), G (n = 1), and unclassifiable. Potential recombinants combining parts of viral regions from different subtypes Aenv/Dpol/Agag, Genv/Apol, and the unclassifiable-subtype(env)/unclassifiable-subtype(pol)/Agag were found in three patients. Epidemiologic analysis of travel histories and behavioral risks indicated that HIV-1 and HIV-2 subtypes reflected HIV strains prevalent in countries visited by patients or their sex partners. Spread of complex HIV-subtype distribution patterns to regions where HIV is not endemic may be more common than previously thought. Blood screening for both HIV-1 and HIV-2 in Lebanon is recommended to protect the blood supply. HIV subtype data provide information for vaccine development.

Horizontal and vertical transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 dual infections caused by viruses of subtypes B and C.

This article describes a case of horizontal (heterosexual) and subsequent vertical (mother to infant) transmission of 2 human immunodeficiency viruses type 1 (HIV-1) subtypes. Dual infection in a husband, his wife, and their child was initially detected by use of a restriction fragment length polymorphism assay of the proviral protease in peripheral blood mononuclear cells. The simultaneous presence of highly similar sets of HIV-1 subtypes B and C infecting the 3 family members was confirmed by DNA sequence analysis of pol, gag, and env genes. These data, together with available epidemiologic information, may indicate that the husband's high-risk sexual behavior was the source of dual infections. Because his wife did not report such activities, it was likely that he passed HIV-1 strains to his spouse, who subsequently transmitted them to their child.

Identification of single and dual infections with distinct subtypes of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 by using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis.

The simultaneous presence of multiple HIV-1 subtypes has become common in communities with the growth of the pandemic. As a consequence, the potentiality for an increased frequency of HIV-1 mixed infections caused by viruses of distinct subtypes could be expected. Thus, there is a need to estimate the prevalence and geographic distribution of infections caused by viruses of a singular subtype as well as coinfections caused by two or more HIV-1 strains of distinct subtypes. To address this need, we have developed a genetic method based on restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) to screen for these two types of infections within infected populations. In this assay, restriction enzymes may be used to predict the phylogroup of HIV-1 infected samples. A 297 bp pol fragment spanning the entire viral protease gene and a 311 bp fragment of the p24 gag region are used for this analysis. The viral regions are amplified by nested PCR using DNA templates from uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) or virus culture. Classification of HIV-1 strains to well defined subtypes B, D, F, and A/C is done by sequential endonuclease restriction analysis of a PCR amplified-protease gene followed by analysis of the p24 gag region. The electrophoretic migration patterns visualized by ethidium bromide staining or by radiolabeled probes are then determined on a 10% polyacrylamide gel. In infections caused by viruses of a singular subtype, a single restriction pattern is detected, whereas in multiple infections caused by two or more viral strains of different subtypes, the combination of different digestion patterns are observed in infected individuals. Using this methodology we have screened for genetic variations in HIV-1 proviral DNA from thirty-three Brazilian samples. Our RFLP procedure classified thirty-two samples as single infections caused by viruses of subtypes B (31) and F (1), and one sample as dual infection caused by distinct viral strains. Subsequent sequence and phylogenetic analysis of the viral protease gene in lymphocytes of all these patients confirmed our RFLP findings in single infections, and demonstrated the existence of two distinct HIV-1 strains of subtypes F and D in a patient which lymphocytes showed the simultaneous presence of two different digestion patterns. As up to now, single infections caused by subtype D variants were not identified in Brazil, our data provide the first evidence of subtype D HIV-1 in this country. Because sequencing of HIV proviral DNA is not particularly practical for large-scale molecular epidemiological studies, the protease/gag-based RFLP screening method will be useful to predict the phylogroup of HIV-1, and to identify multiple infections caused by HIV-1 strains of distinct subtypes. We believe that this information is crucial for both evaluation of the HIV-1/AIDS pandemic and intervention strategies.