Evaluating the effectiveness of M-AMBI with other biotic indexes in a temperate estuary.

Need for a scalable and widely applicable index has been increasingly important. This study evaluates the applicability of the M-AMBI, a potential comprehensive index, at small spatial scales. M-AMBI was compared to regional indices (EMAP-E and GOM B-IBI), assessing response to natural environmental gradients and low oxygen stress. Results indicate poor agreement between indices with M-AMBI and GOM B-IBI showing positive correlation but significant disagreement in habitat condition. EMAP-E had no agreement. Indices showed similar patterns of better habitat scores in higher salinities. M-AMBI also showed a negative relationship with sediment organic matter and total nitrogen. DO influenced all indices with M-AMBI the most sensitive. However, mismatches between DO and index score were observed further calibration may be needed before adoption into programs. Overall, the M-AMBI demonstrates potential at smaller, local scales, but additional studies are needed to validate its performance in different coastal environments and under different conditions.

Measuring and modeling diel oxygen dynamics in a shallow hypereutrophic estuary: Implications of low oxygen exposure on aquatic life.

Hypoxia, or low dissolved oxygen (DO) is a common outcome of excess nitrogen and phosphorus delivered to coastal waterbodies. Shallow and highly productive estuaries are particularly susceptible to diel-cycling hypoxia, which can exhibit DO excursions between anoxia (DO ≤1 mg L-1) and supersaturated concentrations within a day. Shallow estuaries exhibiting diel-cycling hypoxia are understudied relative to larger and deeper estuaries, with very few mechanistic models that can predict diel oxygen dynamics. We utilized continuous monitoring data and the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) coupled with an Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to simulate diel DO dynamics in Weeks Bay, AL. Low oxygen conditions ranging from anoxia to DO ≤4 mg L-1 were consistently observed and simulated in the lower water column for periods of minutes to >11 h. High frequency observations and model simulations also identified significant vertical gradients in near bottom DO that varied as much as 0.8 to 3.1 mg L-1 within 0.4 m from the bottom. This spatiotemporal variability presents unique challenges to adequately quantify DO dynamics and the potential exposure of aquatic life to low oxygen conditions. Our results demonstrate the need for detailed measurements to adequately quantify the complex DO dynamics in shallow estuaries. We also demonstrate that simulation models can be successfully applied to evaluate diel oxygen dynamics in complex estuarine environments when calibrated with fine time scale data and effective parameterization of water column and benthic metabolic processes.

Effects of Biophysical Processes on Diel-Cycling Hypoxia in a Subtropical Estuary.

In shallow estuaries, fluctuations in bottom dissolved oxygen (DO) at diel (24 h) timescales are commonly attributed to cycles of net production and respiration. However, bottom DO can also be modulated by physical processes, such as tides and wind, that vary at or near diel timescales. Here, we examine processes affecting spatiotemporal variations in diel-cycling DO in Escambia Bay, a shallow estuary along the Gulf of Mexico. We collected continuous water quality measurements in the upper and middle reaches of the Bay following relatively high (> 850 m3 s-1) and low (< 175 m3 s-1) springtime freshwater discharge. Variations in diel-cycling amplitude over time were estimated using the continuous wavelet transform, and correlations between DO and biophysical processes at diel timescales were examined using wavelet coherence. Our results reveal that freshwater discharge modulated inter-annual variations in the spatial extent and duration of summertime hypoxia through its effect on vertical density stratification. In the absence of strong stratification (> 15 kg m-3), vertical mixing by tropic tides and sea breeze enhanced diel fluctuations in deeper areas near the channel, while in shallower areas the largest fluctuations were associated with irradiance. Our findings suggest that processes affecting diel-cycling DO in the bottom layer can vary over a relatively short spatial extent less than 2 km and with relatively small changes in bottom elevation of 1 m or less. Implications for water quality monitoring were illustrated by subsampling DO timeseries, which demonstrates how low-frequency measurements may misrepresent water quality in estuaries where diel-cycling DO is common. In these systems, adequate assessment of hypoxia and its aquatic life impacts requires continuous measurements that capture the variation in DO at diel timescales.

Inter-model comparison of simulated Gulf of Mexico hypoxia in response to reduced nutrient loads: effects of phytoplankton and organic matter parameterization.

Complex simulation models are a valuable tool to inform nutrient management decisions aimed at reducing hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico, yet simulated hypoxia response to reduced nutrients varies greatly between models. We compared two biogeochemical models driven by the same hydrodynamics, the Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model (CGEM) and Gulf of Mexico Dissolved Oxygen Model (GoMDOM), to investigate how they differ in simulating hypoxia and their response to reduced nutrients. Different phytoplankton nutrient kinetics produced 2-3 times more hypoxic area and volume on the western shelf in CGEM compared to GoMDOM. Reductions in hypoxic area were greatest in the western shelf, comprising 72% (~4,200 km2) of the total shelfwide hypoxia response. The range of hypoxia responses from multiple models suggests a 60% load reduction may result in a 33% reduction in hypoxic area, leaving an annual hypoxic area of ~9,000 km2 based on the latest 5-yr average (13,928 km2).

Impacts of climate change on estuarine stratification and implications for hypoxia within a shallow subtropical system.

Vertical density stratification often plays an important role in the formation and expansion of coastal hypoxic zones through its effect on near-bed circulation and vertical oxygen flux. However, the impact of future climate change on estuarine circulation is widely unknown. Here, we developed and calibrated a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for Pensacola Bay, a shallow subtropical estuary in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Model simulations based on years 2013-2017 were applied to examine changes in salinity, temperature, and density under future climate scenarios, including increased radiative forcing (IR) and temperature (T), increased freshwater discharge (D), sea level rise (SLR), and wind intensification (W). Simulations showed that the impacts of climate change on modeled state variables varied over time with external forcing conditions. The model demonstrated the potential for sea level rise and increased freshwater discharge to episodically increase vertical density gradients in the Bay. However, increased wind forcing destabilized vertical gradients, at times reducing the spatial extent and duration of stable stratification. For time periods with low freshwater discharge, moderate increases in wind speed (10%) can destabilize density gradients strengthened by increased discharge (10%) and sea level rise (0.48 m). In contrast, destruction of strong density gradients that form near the mid-Bay channel following flood events requires stronger wind forcing. These results highlight the importance of considering natural variability in freshwater and wind forcing, as well as local phenomena that are generally unresolved by global climate models.

Contiguous Low Oxygen Waters between the Continental Shelf Hypoxia Zone and Nearshore Coastal Waters of Louisiana, USA: Interpreting 30 Years of Profiling Data and Three-Dimensional Ecosystem Modeling.

The multidecadal expansion of northern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf hypoxia is a striking example of the adverse effects of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment on coastal oceans. Increased nutrient inputs and widespread shelf hypoxia have resulted in numerous dissolved oxygen (DO) water quality problems in nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana. A large hydrographic dataset compiled from research programs spanning 30 years and the three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) were integrated to explore the interconnections of low DO waters across the continental shelf to nearshore coastal waters of Louisiana. Cross-shelf vertical profiles showed contiguous low DO bottom waters extending from the shelf to coastal waters nearly every year in the 30+ year time series, which were concurrent with strong cross-shelf pycnoclines. A threshold Brunt-Väisälä frequency of 40 cycles h-1 was critical to maintaining the cross-shelf subpycnocline layers and facilitating the formation of a contiguous low DO water mass. Field observations and model simulations identified periods of wind-driven bottom water upwelling lasting between several days to several weeks, resulting in both physical advection of oxygen-depleted offshore waters to the nearshore and enhanced nearshore stratification. Both the upwelling of low DO bottom waters and in situ respiration were of sufficient temporal and spatial extent to drive DO below Louisiana's DO water quality criteria. Basin-wide nutrient management strategies aimed at reducing nutrient inputs and shelf hypoxia remain essential to improving the nearshore coastal water quality across the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Modeling Spatiotemporal Patterns of Ecosystem Metabolism and Organic Carbon Dynamics Affecting Hypoxia on the Louisiana Continental Shelf.

The hypoxic zone on the Louisiana Continental Shelf (LCS) forms each summer due to nutrient enhanced primary production and seasonal stratification associated with freshwater discharges from the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). Recent field studies have identified highly productive shallow nearshore waters as an important component of shelf-wide carbon production contributing to hypoxia formation. In this study we present results from a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model named CGEM (Coastal Generalized Ecosystem Model) applied to quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of hypoxia, carbon production, respiration, and transport between nearshore and middle shelf regions where hypoxia is most prevalent. We first demonstrate that our simulations successfully reproduced spatial and temporal patterns of carbon production, respiration, and bottom-water oxygen gradients compared to field observations. We then used interannual simulations to identify transport of particulate organic carbon (POC) from nearshore areas where riverine organic matter and phytoplankton carbon production are greatest. The spatial disconnect between carbon production and respiration in our simulations was driven by westward and offshore POC flux, a pattern that supported heterotrophic respiration on the middle shelf where hypoxia is frequently observed. These results validate the importance of offshore carbon flux to hypoxia formation, particularly on the west shelf where hypoxic conditions are more variable.

Spatially Variable Bioturbation and Physical Mixing Drive the Sedimentary Biogeochemical Seascape in the Louisiana Continental Shelf Hypoxic Zone.

Seasonal hypoxia on the Louisiana continental shelf (LCS) has grown to over 22,000 km2 with limited information available on how low oxygen effects the benthos. Benthic macrofaunal colonization and sediment biogeochemical parameters were characterized at twelve stations in waters 10 - 50 m deep along four transects spanning 320 km across the LCS hypoxic zone in the early fall of 2010 when bottom waters typically return to oxic conditions. Chemical data and sediment profile imaging (SPI) support three primary mechanistic pathways of organic matter degradation on the LCS: (i) metal oxide cycling in depositional muds, (ii) infauna-driven bioturbation delivering oxygen below the sediment-water interface, and (iii) sulfate reduction in sediments where iron oxide availability is limited. The transect nearest the Mississippi River delta had the highest concentrations of porewater and solid phase Mn and Fe with SPI images of recently deposited reddish, mixed muddy sediments suggestive of metal cycling. The deepest stations had high oxidized iron concentrations and rust colored sediments with faunal colonization that suggests sediments are oxidized via bioturbation. Many nearshore and central LCS stations had more black sediments, more disturbed clay layers, lower amounts of oxidized iron, and higher sulfate reduction rates than the deepest stations. Sediment mixing coefficients, DB , determined from chlorophyll-a concentration profiles varied between 33 and 183 cm-2 y-1. DB values were highest at the deepest stations where sediments were colonized. DB were not determined at two nearshore stations where chlorophyll-a concentrations were highly variable in surficial sediments, and on the eastern shelf where sedimentation is high. This study provides a regional view of benthic faunal colonization and sediment biogeochemistry on the LCS, describes regions with potentially different pathways of organic matter degradation, and demonstrates the importance of both bioturbation and physical mixing in processing the large amounts of organic matter in river-dominated continental shelf systems.

Seasonal oxygen dynamics in a warm temperate estuary: effects of hydrologic variability on measurements of primary production, respiration, and net metabolism.

Seasonal responses in estuarine metabolism (primary production, respiration, and net metabolism) were examined using two complementary approaches. Total ecosystem metabolism rates were calculated from dissolved oxygen time series using Odum's open water method. Water column rates were calculated from oxygen-based bottle experiments. The study was conducted over a spring-summer season in the Pensacola Bay estuary at a shallow seagrass-dominated site and a deeper bare-bottomed site. Water column integrated gross production rates more than doubled (58.7 to 130.9 mmol O2 m-2 d-1) from spring to summer, coinciding with a sharp increase in water column chlorophyll-a, and a decrease in surface salinity. As expected, ecosystem gross production rates were consistently higher than water column rates, but showed a different spring-summer pattern, decreasing at the shoal site from 197 to 168 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 and sharply increasing at the channel site from 93.4 to 197.4 mmol O2 m-2 d-1. The consistency among approaches was evaluated by calculating residual metabolism rates (ecosystem - water column). At the shoal site, residual gross production rates decreased from spring to summer from 176.8 to 99.1 mmol O2 m-2 d-1, but were generally consistent with expectations for seagrass environments, indicating that the open water method captured both water column and benthic processes. However, at the channel site, where benthic production was strongly light-limited, residual gross production varied from 15.7 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 in spring to 86.7 mmol O2 m-2 d-1 in summer. The summer rates were much higher than could be realistically attributed to benthic processes, and likely reflected a violation of the open water method due to water column stratification. While the use of sensors for estimating complex ecosystem processes holds promise for coastal monitoring programs, careful attention to the sampling design, and to the underlying assumptions of the methods, is critical for correctly interpreting the results. This study demonstrated how using a combination of approaches yielded a fuller understanding of the ecosystem response to hydrologic and seasonal variability.

Parameter sensitivity and identifiability for a biogeochemical model of hypoxia in the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Local sensitivity analyses and identifiable parameter subsets were used to describe numerical constraints of a hypoxia model for bottom waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The sensitivity of state variables differed considerably with parameter changes, although most variables were responsive to changes in parameters that influenced planktonic growth rates and less sensitive to physical or chemical parameters. Variation in sensitivity had a direct correspondence with identifiability, such that only small subsets of the complete parameter set had unique effects on the model output. Selecting parameters by decreasing sensitivity demonstrated that only eight of 51 total parameters had a sufficiently unique effect on model output for accurate calibration. As a result, parameter selection heuristics were used to identify parameters for model calibration that depended on combined effects on output, relative sensitivity of each parameter, and ecological categories for the biogeochemical equations. The calibrated zero-dimensional (0-D) unit of the hypoxia model had improved fit to the observed data if sensitive phytoplankton parameters were included in an identifiable subset. Extension of results to a three-dimensional grid of the Gulf of Mexico showed that sensitive parameters for the 0-D model translated to non-trivial changes in the areal estimates of hypoxia.