[Mortality trends in Germany in an international context]. / Sterblichkeitsentwicklung in Deutschland im internationalen Kontext.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Due to its strong economy and a well-developed healthcare system, Germany is well positioned to achieve above-average reductions in mortality. Nevertheless, in terms of life expectancy, Germany is increasingly falling behind Western Europe. We compare mortality trends in Germany with other Western European countries, covering the period from 1960 to 2019. The focus is on long-term trends in Germany's ranking in international mortality trends. In addition, we conduct a detailed mortality analysis by age. METHODS: Our analysis is mostly based on mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD). Cause-specific mortality data originate from the database of the World Health Organization (WHO). For the international comparison of mortality trends, we use conventional mortality indicators (age-standardized mortality rate, period life expectancy). RESULTS: Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has higher mortality in the middle and older age groups. Germany's life expectancy gap compared to Western Europe has grown during the past 20 years. In 2000, Germany was 0.73 years behind for men and 0.74 years behind for women. By 2019, these figures had risen to 1.43 and 1.34 years, respectively. This is mainly due to mortality from non-communicable diseases. CONCLUSION: For Germany to catch up with other Western European countries, a stronger focus on further reducing mortality at ages 50+ is crucial. This also requires further research to understand the factors behind Germany's disadvantageous position.

National and education-specific trends in life and health expectancies in Denmark 2004-2015.

BACKGROUND: Several studies have revealed widening of inequalities in life expectancy, but little is known about the recent changes in health expectancy nationally and between socioeconomic groups. This study examines dynamics of national and education-specific life expectancy and health expectancies at age 50 years in Denmark from 2004/2007 to 2015. METHODS: Nationwide register data on education and mortality were linked and combined with Danish health data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe and changes in life expectancy and three health expectancy indicators were estimated by Sullivan's method. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2015, national life expectancy at age 50 years increased by 2.4 years for men and 2.1 years for women. Simultaneously, after an initial rapid improvement from 2004 to 2007, the pace of progress in health expectancy decreased. From 2007 to 2015, the difference in life expectancy at age 50 years between men with long and short education increased from 4.3 to 5.0 years. For women, the corresponding increase in the life expectancy gap was less pronounced from 3.5 to 3.8 years. The educational gap in lifetime without long-term illness decreased from 4.6 years to 3.1 years for men and from 6.1 years to 4.6 years for women. On the contrary, the educational gap increased for lifetime without activity limitations and in self-rated good health. CONCLUSIONS: Previously observed improvements in health expectancy in Denmark slowed down despite continuing progress in life expectancy. This worrying change coincides with persistent educational inequalities in life expectancy and health expectancy and is a challenge to a sustainable social and health development in the future.

Impact of the WHO "best buys" for alcohol policy on consumption and health in the Baltic countries and Poland 2000-2020.

Alcohol use is a major risk factor for burden of disease. This narrative review aims to document the effects of major alcohol control policies, in particular taxation increases and availability restrictions in the three Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) between 2000 and 2020. These measures have been successful in curbing alcohol sales, in general without increasing consumption of alcoholic beverages from unrecorded sources; although for more recent changes this may have been partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, findings from time-series analyses suggest improved health, measured as reductions in all-cause and alcohol-attributable mortality, as well as narrowing absolute mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated groups. For most outcomes, there were sex differences observed, with alcohol control policies more strongly affecting males. In contrast to this successful path, alcohol control policies were mostly dismantled in the neighbouring country of Poland, resulting in a rising death toll due to liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-attributable deaths. The natural experiment in this region of high-income European countries with high consumption levels highlights the importance of effective alcohol control policies for improving population health.

Variation in mortality burden of the COVID-19 pandemic across federal states in Germany.

BACKGROUND: Intra-annual excess mortality is the most reliable measure of losses of lives due to short-term risk factors. The objectives of our study are (i) to estimate excess mortality across German states in the course of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic years 2020 and 2021 and (ii) to identify possible regional-level determinants of spatial inequality in pandemic-related excess mortality. METHODS: We use weekly mortality data series for the calculation of weekly death rates, standardized by age for each federal state of Germany. We estimate the expected level of mortality as state-specific mortality trends and excess mortality in 2020 and 2021. We explore ecological statistical relationships between excess mortality, COVID-19 morbidity, and selected regional socioeconomic indicators using fixed-effects regression models. RESULTS: Our study shows that during the first pandemic year, there was South-to-North gradient in excess mortality in Germany, with excess mortality being higher in the South. Over the course of the second pandemic year 2021, this gradient changed to become an East-to-West gradient, with excess mortality being higher in the East. The results of the study show stronger effects of COVID-19 morbidity on excess mortality in East Germany. State-level indicators reflecting economic activity, employment, and capacity of intensive care units show significant correlations with excess mortality across the states. CONCLUSIONS: The results show pronounced state-level differences in the magnitude of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Economic activity, employment and capacity of intensive care units were the most important state-level characteristics associated with the observed spatial variations in excess mortality.

Weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on hours of alcohol sale in Lithuania in 2018.

AIMS: From 1 January 2018, the number of retail hours for the sale of alcohol was reduced from 14 to 5 hours on Sundays and from 14 to 10 hours on the other days of the week in Lithuania. The significant reduction of hours for the sale of alcohol on Sundays may have affected the distribution of alcohol-attributable deaths during the week. This study aimed to examine the change in the weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality before and after imposing limits on the hours when alcohol can be sold. METHODS: Age-standardised male death rates by days of the week were calculated for four groups according to cause of death: alcohol poisoning (X45), all external causes of death (V01-Y98), diseases of the circulatory system (I00-I99) and all other causes of death. We compared age-standardised death rates for two periods: before (2015-2017) and after (2018-2019) the intervention. Mortality and population data were obtained from the Lithuanian Institute of Hygiene and Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: We found that during 2018-2019, earlier observed peak in age-standardised death rates for external causes of death on Sunday diminished, and this day no longer differed from the weekly average. The same tendency was also observed for the Monday excess mortality due to circulatory diseases. CONCLUSIONS: The reduction of the hours when alcohol can be sold from the beginning of 2018 was associated with a change in a weekly pattern of alcohol-attributable male mortality. However, more studies are needed to examine the causes of the change in mortality pattern.

Sociodemographic inequalities in mortality from drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015: a register-based study.

BACKGROUND: Drowning is an important public health problem. Some evidence suggests that the risk of drowning is not distributed evenly across the general population. However, there has been comparatively little research on inequalities in drowning mortality. To address this deficit, this study examined trends and sociodemographic inequalities in mortality from unintentional drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015. METHODS: Data for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania came from longitudinal mortality follow-up studies of population censuses in 2000/2001 and 2011, while corresponding data for Finland were obtained from the longitudinal register-based population data file of Statistics Finland. Deaths from drowning (ICD-10 codes W65-W74) were obtained from national mortality registries. Information was also obtained on socioeconomic status (educational level) and urban-rural residence. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 person years and mortality rate ratios were calculated for adults aged 30-74 years old. Poisson regression analysis was performed to assess the independent effects of sex, urban-rural residence and education on drowning mortality. RESULTS: Drowning ASMRs were significantly higher in the Baltic countries than in Finland but declined by nearly 30% in all countries across the study period. There were large inequalities by sex, urban-rural residence and educational level in all countries during 2000-2015. Men, rural residents and low educated individuals had substantially higher drowning ASMRs compared to their counterparts. Absolute and relative inequalities were significantly larger in the Baltic countries than in Finland. Absolute inequalities in drowning mortality declined in all countries across the study period except between urban and rural residents in Finland. Changes in relative inequalities were more variable during 2000-2015. CONCLUSION: Despite a sharp reduction in deaths from drowning in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015, drowning mortality was still high in these countries at the end of the study period with a substantially larger risk of death seen among men, rural residents and low educated individuals. A concerted effort to prevent drowning mortality among those most at risk may reduce drownings considerably in the general population.

The underwhelming German life expectancy.

This article contributes to the discussion on the determinants of diverging life expectancy in high-income countries, with a focus on Germany. To date, much of this discourse has centered around the social determinants of health, issues of healthcare equity, poverty and income inequality, and new epidemics of opioids and violence. Yet despite doing well on all of these metrics and having numerous advantages such as comparatively strong economic performance, generous social security, and an equitable and well-resourced health care system, Germany has been a long-time life expectancy laggard among the high-income countries. Using aggregated population-level mortality data for Germany and selected six high-income countries (Switzerland, France, Japan, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from the Human Mortality Database and WHO Mortality Database, we find that the German longevity shortfall is mainly explained by a longstanding disadvantage in survival among older adults and adults nearing statutory retirement age, which mainly stems from sustained excess cardiovascular disease mortality, even when compared to other laggard countries such as the US and the UK. Patchy contextual data suggests that the unfavorable pattern of cardiovascular mortality may be driven by underperforming primary care and disease prevention. More systematic and representative data on risk factors are needed to strengthen the evidence base on the determinants of the controversial and long-standing health gap between more successful countries and Germany. The German example calls for broader narratives of population health that embed the variety of epidemiological challenges populations face around the globe.

Educational inequalities in hypothermia mortality in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-15.

BACKGROUND: Despite an increased focus on cold-related mortality in recent years, there has been comparatively little research specifically on hypothermia mortality and its associated factors. METHODS: Educational inequalities in hypothermia mortality among individuals aged 30-74 in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) and Finland in 2000-15 were examined using data from longitudinal mortality follow-up studies of population censuses (the Baltics) and from a longitudinal register-based population data file (Finland). RESULTS: Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were much higher in the Baltic countries than in Finland across the study period. From 2000-07 to 2008-15, overall ASMRs declined in all countries except among Finnish women. Although a strong educational gradient was observed in hypothermia mortality in all countries in 2000-07, inequalities were larger in the Baltic countries. Between 2000-07 and 2008-15, ASMRs declined in all educational groups except for high-educated women in Finland and low-educated women in Lithuania; the changes however were not always statistically significant. The absolute mortality decline was often larger among the low educated resulting in narrowing absolute inequalities (excepting Lithuania), whereas a larger relative decline among the high educated (excepting Finnish women) resulted in a considerable widening of relative inequalities in hypothermia mortality by 2008-15. CONCLUSION: Although some reduction was observed in absolute educational inequalities in hypothermia mortality in 2000-15, substantial and widening relative inequalities highlight the need for further action in combatting factors behind deaths from excessive cold in socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, including risky alcohol consumption and homelessness.

The impact of alcohol taxation increase on all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania: an interrupted time series analysis.

BACKGROUND: Taxation increases which reduce the affordability of alcohol are expected to reduce mortality inequalities. A recent taxation increase in Lithuania offers the unique possibility to test this hypothesis. METHODS: Census-linked mortality data between 2011 and 2019 were used to calculate monthly sex- and education-stratified age-standardized mortality rates for the population aged 40 to 70 years. As primary outcome, we analysed the difference in age-standardized all-cause mortality rates between the population of lowest versus highest educational achievement. The impact of the 2017 taxation increase was evaluated using interrupted time series analyses. To identify whether changes in alcohol use can explain the observed effects on all-cause mortality, the education-based mortality differences were then decomposed into n = 16 cause-of-death groupings. RESULTS: Between 2012 and 2019, education-based all-cause mortality inequalities in Lithuania declined by 18% among men and by 14% among women. Following the alcohol taxation increase, we found a pronounced yet temporary reduction of mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men (- 13%). Subsequent decomposition analyses suggest that the reduction in mortality inequalities between lower and higher educated men was mainly driven by narrowing mortality differences in injuries and infectious diseases. CONCLUSIONS: A marked increase in alcohol excise taxation was associated with a decrease in mortality inequalities among Lithuanian men. More pronounced reductions in deaths from injuries and infectious diseases among lower as compared to higher educated groups could be the result of differential changes in alcohol use in these populations.

Evaluating the Impact of Alcohol Policy on Suicide Mortality: A Sex-Specific Time-Series Analysis for Lithuania.

OBJECTIVE: It is reasonable to believe that the alcohol policy environment can impact the suicide mortality rates in a given country, considering the well-known link between alcohol use and death by suicide. The current literature, albeit limited, suggests that an increase in alcohol taxation may result in a decrease in deaths by suicide and that the effect is sex-specific. Therefore, the objective of the current study was to test the impact of three alcohol control policy enactments (in 2008, 2017 and 2018) on suicide mortality among adults 25-74 years of age in Lithuania, by sex. METHODS: To estimate the unique impact of three alcohol control policies, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses by employing a generalized additive mixed model on monthly sex-specific age-standardized suicide mortality rates from January 2001 to December 2018. RESULTS: Analyses showed a significant impact of the 2017 (p = 0.016) alcohol control policy on suicide mortality for men only. Specifically, we estimated that in the year following the 2017 policy enactment, approximately 57 (95% CI: 9-107) deaths by suicide were prevented among men, 25-74 years of age. The three policy enactments tested were not found to significantly impact the suicide mortality rate among women. CONCLUSION: Alcohol control policies involving pricing, which result in a notable decrease in alcohol affordability, could be a cost-effective indirect suicide prevention mechanism in not only countries of the former Soviet Union, but in other high-income countries with a comparable health care system to that in Lithuania. HIGHLIGHTSIncreasing excise tax on alcohol was found to have a sex-specific impact on suicide mortalityThe 2017 alcohol policy prevented 57 deaths by suicide among men, 25-74 years of age, in the following yearAlcohol pricing policies may be a cost-effective indirect suicide prevention mechanism.

Classifying alcohol control policies enacted between 2000 and 2020 in Poland and the Baltic countries to model potential impact.

AIMS: The study's aim is to identify and classify the most important alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania) and Poland between 2000 and 2020. METHODS: Policy analysis of Baltic countries and Poland, predicting potential policy impact on alcohol consumption, all-cause mortality and alcohol-attributable hospitalizations was discussed. RESULTS: All Baltic countries implemented stringent availability restrictions on off-premises trading hours and different degrees of taxation increases to reduce the affordability of alcoholic beverages, as well as various degrees of bans on alcohol marketing. In contrast, Poland implemented few excise taxation increases or availability restrictions and, in fact, reduced stipulations on prior marketing bans. CONCLUSIONS: This classification of alcohol control policies in the Baltic countries and Poland provides a basis for future modeling of the impact of implementing effective alcohol control policies (Baltic countries), as well as the effects of loosening such policies (Poland).

Correction to: Changes in socioeconomic differentials in old age life expectancy in four Nordic countries: the impact of educational expansion and education-specific mortality.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1007/s10433-022-00698-y.].

The burden of mental health-related mortality in the Baltic States in 2007-2018.

BACKGROUND: The problem of underestimating the burden of mental health-related mortality is widely discussed in the public health literature. Relevant scientific evidence from societies experiencing the largest burden of mental health mortality is important for better understanding global and national mental health challenges and improving policies. Three Baltic States - Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia - are countries in the Central and Eastern European region that experienced post-soviet transition trauma and showed among the highest suicide and alcohol-related mortality rates in Europe. This study aimed to examine the change in the burden of mental health-related mortality in three Baltic States in the context of consistent growth in life expectancy in 2007-2018. METHODS: We calculated age-standardized years of life lost due to specific mental health-related causes of death in three Baltic countries from 2007 to 2018. Four mental health-related causes of death groups were analyzed: (i) all mental and behavioural disorders; (ii) intentional self-harm; (iii) main substance use-related causes of death; and (iv) external causes of death. The number of deaths came from the WHO Mortality Database; population exposures were extracted from the Human Mortality Database. RESULTS: We found that the proportion of age-standardized years of life lost due to mental disorders was relatively low in all three countries. It varied from 0.2% for females in Lithuania in 2009 to 2.4% for males in Estonia in 2007. However, the proportion of age-standardized years of life lost from self-harm and substance use remained high. In 2018, the proportion of age-standardized years of life lost due to self-harm was highest among males in Lithuania (4.1%) while the highest proportion due to substance use-related causes of death was among males in Estonia (7.3%). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that the burden of mental health-related mortality remained high and showed divergent temporal changes across the three countries. In the context of the Baltic States and other post-soviet countries, fractions of various external causes of death and alcohol-related causes of death should be considered in assessing the total burden of mental health-related mortality.

Changes in socioeconomic differentials in old age life expectancy in four Nordic countries: the impact of educational expansion and education-specific mortality.

Overall progress in life expectancy (LE) depends increasingly on survival in older ages. The birth cohorts now reaching old age have experienced considerable educational expansion, which is a driving force for the social change and social inequality. Thus, this study examines changes in old age LE by educational attainment in the Nordic countries and aims to find out to what extent the change in national LEs is attributable to education-specific mortality and the shifting educational composition. We used national register data comprising total 65 + populations in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden to create period life tables stratified by five-year age groups (65-90 +), sex and educational attainment. Difference in LE between 2001 and 2015 was decomposed into the contributions of mortality changes within each educational group and changes in educational composition. Increasing LE at all ages and in all educational groups coincided with persistent and growing educational inequalities in all countries. Most of the gains in LE at age 65 could be attributed to decreased mortality (63-90%), especially among those with low education, the largest educational group in most countries. The proportion of the increase in LE attributable to improved education was 10-37%, with the highest contributions recorded for women in Norway and Sweden. The rising educational levels in the Nordic countries still carry potential for further gains in national LEs. However, the educational expansion has contributed to uneven gains in LE between education groups, which poses a risk for the future increase of inequalities in LE. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10433-022-00698-y.

Trends over two decades in life expectancy with complex health problems among older Swedes: implications for the provision of integrated health care and social care.

BACKGROUND: Due to population aging, it is essential to examine to what extent rises in life expectancy (LE) consist of healthy or unhealthy years. Most health expectancy studies have been based on single health measures and have shown divergent trends. We used a multi-domain indicator, complex health problems (CHP), indicative of the need for integrated medical and social care, to investigate how LE with and without CHP developed in Sweden between 1992 and 2011. We also addressed whether individuals with CHP more commonly lived in the community in 2011 compared to earlier years. METHODS: CHP were defined as having severe problems in at least two of three health domains related to the need for medical and/or social care: symptoms/diseases, cognition/communication, and mobility. The Swedish Panel Study of Living Conditions of the Oldest Old (SWEOLD), a nationally representative survey of the Swedish population aged ≥ 77 years with waves in 1992, 2002 and 2011 (n≈2000), was used to estimate the prevalence of CHP. Age- and gender-specific death rates were obtained from the Human Mortality Database. The Sullivan method was deployed to calculate the remaining life expectancy with and without CHP. The estimates were decomposed to calculate the contribution of changes from morbidity and mortality to the overall trends in LE without CHP. RESULTS: Between 1992 and 2011, both total LE (+ 1.69 years [95% CI 1.56;1.83] and LE without CHP (+ 0.84 years [-0,87;2.55]) at age 77 increased for men, whereas LE at age 77 increased for women (+ 1.33 [1.21;1.47]) but not LE without CHP (-0.06 years [-1.39;1.26]). When decomposing the trend, we found that the increase in LE with CHP was mainly driven by an increase in the prevalence of CHP. Among individuals with CHP the proportion residing in care homes was lower in 2011 (37%) compared to 2002 (58%) and 1992 (53%). CONCLUSIONS: The findings, that an increasing number of older people are expected to live more years with CHP, and increasingly live in the community, point towards a challenge for individuals and families, as well as for society in financing and organizing coordinated and coherent medical and social services.

Educational inequalities in epilepsy mortality in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015.

Little is known about socioeconomic differences in epilepsy mortality. This study examined educational inequalities in epilepsy mortality in the general population in the Baltic countries and Finland in 2000-2015. Education-specific mortality estimates for individuals aged 30-74 in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania were obtained from census-linked mortality datasets while data for Finland came from the register-based population and death data file of Statistics Finland. Trends and educational inequalities in epilepsy mortality were assessed using age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100,000 person years and age-adjusted mortality rate ratios (RRs) calculated using Poisson regression. ASMRs were higher in men than women in all countries. ASMRs reduced in 2000-2015 among all men and women except for Finnish women. Among men, an inverse educational gradient in epilepsy mortality in 2000-2007 widened in 2008-2015 with ASMRs falling among high and mid educated men in all countries but increasing among low educated men in three countries. An inverse educational gradient in female mortality remained in all countries throughout 2000-2015. Although epilepsy mortality fell in the Baltic countries and Finland (men only) in 2000-2015, this masked a clear inverse educational gradient in mortality that became steeper across the period.