Impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilization, cases, and deaths of citizens and displaced Venezuelans in Colombia: Complementary comprehensive and safety-net systems under Colombia's constitutional commitment.

OBJECTIVE: Colombia hosts 1.8 million displaced Venezuelans, the second highest number of displaced persons globally. Colombia's constitution entitles all residents, including migrants, to life-saving health care, but actual performance data are rare. This study assessed Colombia's COVID-era achievements. METHODS: We compared utilization of comprehensive (primarily consultations) and safety-net (primarily hospitalization) services, COVID-19 case rates, and mortality between Colombian citizens and Venezuelans in Colombia across 60 municipalities (local governments). We employed ratios, log transformations, correlations, and regressions using national databases for population, health services, disease surveillance, and deaths. We analyzed March through November 2020 (during COVID-19) and the corresponding months in 2019 (pre-COVID-19). RESULTS: Compared to Venezuelans, Colombians used vastly more comprehensive services than Venezuelans (608% more consultations), in part due to their 25-fold higher enrollment rates in contributory insurance. For safety-net services, however, the gap in utilization was smaller and narrowed. From 2019 to 2020, Colombians' hospitalization rate per person declined by 37% compared to Venezuelans' 24%. In 2020, Colombians had only moderately (55%) more hospitalizations per person than Venezuelans. In 2020, rates by municipality between Colombians and Venezuelans were positively correlated for consultations (r = 0.28, p = 0.04) but uncorrelated for hospitalizations (r = 0.10, p = 0.46). From 2019 to 2020, Colombians' age-adjusted mortality rate rose by 26% while Venezuelans' rate fell by 11%, strengthening Venezuelans' mortality advantage to 14.5-fold. CONCLUSIONS: The contrasting patterns between comprehensive and safety net services suggest that the complementary systems behaved independently. Venezuelans' lower 2019 mortality rate likely reflects the healthy migrant effect (selective migration) and Colombia's safety net healthcare system providing Venezuelans with reasonable access to life-saving treatment. However, in 2020, Venezuelans still faced large gaps in utilization of comprehensive services. Colombia's 2021 authorization of 10-year residence to most Venezuelans is encouraging, but additional policy changes are recommended to further integrate Venezuelans into the Colombian health care system.

Impact of weekday and weekend mobility and public policies on COVID-19 incidence and deaths across 76 large municipalities in Colombia: statistical analysis and simulation.

BACKGROUND: Despite widespread restrictions on residents' mobility to limit the COVID-19 pandemic, controlled impact evaluations on such restrictions are rare. While Colombia imposed a National Lockdown, exceptions and additions created variations across municipalities and over time.  METHODS: We analyzed how weekend and weekday mobility affected COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using GRANDATA from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) we examined movement in 76 Colombian municipalities, representing 60% of Colombia's population, from March 2, 2020 through October 31, 2020. We combined the mobility data with Colombia's National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) and other databases and simulated impacts on COVID-19 burden.  RESULTS: During the study period, Colombians stayed at home more on weekends compared to weekdays. In highly dense municipalities, people moved less than in less dense municipalities. Overall, decreased movement was associated with significant reductions in COVID-19 cases and deaths two weeks later. If mobility had been reduced from the median to the threshold of the best quartile, we estimate that Colombia would have averted 17,145 cases and 1,209 deaths over 34.9 weeks, reductions of 1.63% and 3.91%, respectively. The effects of weekend mobility reductions (with 95% confidence intervals) were 6.40 (1.99-9.97) and 4.94 (1.33-19.72) times those of overall reductions for cases and deaths, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: We believe this is the first evaluation of day-of-the week mobility on COVID-19. Weekend behavior was likely riskier than weekday behavior due to larger gatherings and less social distancing or protective measures. Reducing or shifting such activities outdoors would reduce COVID-19 cases and deaths.