ABSTRACT
Water levels in deltas and estuaries vary on multiple timescales due to coastal, hydrologic, meteorologic, geologic, and anthropogenic factors. These diverse factors increase the uncertainty of, and may bias, relative sea level rise (RSLR) estimates. Here, we evaluate RSLR in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, USA by applying a physics-based, nonlinear regression to 50 tide gauges that determines the spatially varying controls on daily mean water level for water years 2004-2022. Results show that elevated river flow and pumping (99th percentile) raise water level up to 6 m and lower it up to 0.35 m, respectively, and coastal water level variations are attenuated by 30-60% within the Delta. Strong westerly winds raise water level up to 0.17 m, and tidal-fluvial interaction during spring tides and low discharge raises water level up to 0.15 m. Removal of these interfering factors greatly improves RSLR estimates, narrowing 95% confidence intervals by 89-99% and removing bias due to recent drought. Results show that RSLR is spatially heterogeneous, with rates ranging from - 2.8 to 12.9 mm y-1 (95% uncertainties < 1 mm y-1). RSLR also exceeds coastal SLR of 3.3 mm y-1 in San Francisco at 85% of stations. Thus, RSLR in the Delta is strongly influenced by local vertical land motion and will likely produce significantly different, location-dependent future flood risk trajectories.
ABSTRACT
Objectives, Design, Setting: The ketogenic effect of medium chain triglyceride (MCT) oil offers potential for Alzheimer's disease prevention and treatment. Limited literature suggests a linear B-hyroxybutyrate (BHB) response to increasing MCT doses. This pharmacokinetic study evaluates factors affecting BHB response in three subject groups. PARTICIPANTS: Healthy subjects without cognitive deficits <65years, similarly healthy subjects >=65years, and those with Alzheimer's Disease were assessed. INTERVENTION: Different doses (0g,14g, 28g, 42g) of MCT oil (99.3% C8:0) were administered, followed by fasting during the study period. MEASUREMENTS: BHB measured by finger prick sampling hourly for 5 hours after ingestion. Each subject attended four different days for each ascending dose. Data was also collected on body composition, BMI, waist/hip ratio, grip strength, gait speed, nutrient content of pre-study breakfast and side effects. RESULTS: Twenty-five participants: eight healthy; average age of 44yr (25-61), nine healthy; 79yr (65-90) and eight with AD; 78.6yr (57-86) respectively. Compiled data showed the expected linear dose response relationship. No group differences, with baseline corrected area under the blood vs. time curve (r2=0.98) and maximum concentrations (r2=0.97). However, there was notable individual variability in maximum BHB response (42g dose: 0.4 -2.1mM), and time to reach maximum BHB response both, within and between individuals. Variability was unrelated to age, sex, sarcopenic or AD status. Visceral fat, BMI, waist/hip ratio and pretest meal CHO and protein content all affected the BHB response (p<0.001). CONCLUSION: There was a large inter-individual variability, with phenotype effects identified. This highlights challenges in interpreting clinical responses to MCT intake.
