Predicting the future of our oceans-Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species.

Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary genomics have sought to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change (e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species. Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species, and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating these predictions into the decision-making process.

Genomic signatures and correlates of widespread population declines in salmon.

Global losses of biodiversity are occurring at an unprecedented rate, but causes are often unidentified. Genomic data provide an opportunity to isolate drivers of change and even predict future vulnerabilities. Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations have declined range-wide, but factors responsible are poorly understood. Here, we reconstruct changes in effective population size (Ne) in recent decades for 172 range-wide populations using a linkage-based method. Across the North Atlantic, Ne has significantly declined in >60% of populations and declines are consistently temperature-associated. We identify significant polygenic associations with decline, involving genomic regions related to metabolic, developmental, and physiological processes. These regions exhibit changes in presumably adaptive diversity in declining populations consistent with contemporary shifts in body size and phenology. Genomic signatures of widespread population decline and associated risk scores allow direct and potentially predictive links between population fitness and genotype, highlighting the power of genomic resources to assess population vulnerability.

Genomic evidence of hybridization between two independent invasions of European green crab (Carcinus maenas) in the Northwest Atlantic.

Invasive species have been associated with significant negative impacts in their introduced range often outcompeting native species, yet the long-term evolutionary dynamics of biological invasions are not well understood. Hybridization, either among waves of invasion or between native and introduced populations, could alter the ecological and evolutionary impacts of invasions yet has rarely been studied in marine invasive species. The European green crab (Carcinus maenas) invaded eastern North America twice from northern and southern locations in its native range. Here we examine the frequency of hybridization among these two distinct invasions at locations from New Jersey, USA to Newfoundland, Canada using restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq), microsatellite loci and cytochrome c oxidase subunit I mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences. We used Bayesian clustering and hybrid assignment analyses to investigate hybridization between the northern and southern populations. Of the samples analyzed, six locations contained at least one hybrid individual, while two locations were characterized by extensive hybridization, with 95% of individuals collected from Placentia Bay, Newfoundland being hybrids (mostly F2) and 90% of individuals from Kejimkujik, Nova Scotia being classified as hybrids, mostly backcrosses to the northern ecotype. The presence of both F2 hybrids and backcrossed individuals suggests that these hybrids are viable and introgression is occurring between invasions. Our results provide insight into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of hybridization between independent invasions, and will inform the management of green crabs in eastern North America.