Global forecasting of thermal health hazards: the skill of probabilistic predictions of the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI).

Although over a hundred thermal indices can be used for assessing thermal health hazards, many ignore the human heat budget, physiology and clothing. The Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) addresses these shortcomings by using an advanced thermo-physiological model. This paper assesses the potential of using the UTCI for forecasting thermal health hazards. Traditionally, such hazard forecasting has had two further limitations: it has been narrowly focused on a particular region or nation and has relied on the use of single 'deterministic' forecasts. Here, the UTCI is computed on a global scale, which is essential for international health-hazard warnings and disaster preparedness, and it is provided as a probabilistic forecast. It is shown that probabilistic UTCI forecasts are superior in skill to deterministic forecasts and that despite global variations, the UTCI forecast is skilful for lead times up to 10 days. The paper also demonstrates the utility of probabilistic UTCI forecasts on the example of the 2010 heat wave in Russia.

Winter mortality in relation to climate.

We report further details of the Eurowinter survey of cold related mortalities and protective measures against cold in seven regions of Europe, and review these with other evidence on the relationship of winter mortality to climate. Data for the oldest subject group studied, aged 65-74, showed that in this vulnerable group, high levels of protection against indoor and outdoor cold at given outdoor temperatures were found mainly in countries with cold winters, and were associated with low levels of excess mortality at a given level of outdoor cold. Regions such as London that had poor protection against cold and/or high baseline mortalities had higher levels of winter excess mortality than expected for the coldness of their winters.

Atmospheric heat exchange of the human being, bioclimate assessments, mortality and thermal stress.

In epidemiological investigations of the impact of the atmospheric environment on mortality usually only air temperature, in addition to sometimes relative humidity, are used, although it is generally known that the heat exchange conditions of the human body also depend on water vapour pressure, wind velocity, and short- and long-wave radiation. The state-of-the-art approach to this problem is the application of complete heat budget models which allow thermophysiologically significant assessments of the above-mentioned meteorological variables taking metabolic rate and isolation of clothing into account. The application of such a model to 30-year mortality data of Baden-Württemberg (SW-Germany) shows, in winter, increasing daily mortality rate with decreasing "perceived temperature." (a term which relates temperature to a fixed standard condition). A sudden warming during a cold period also results in an increase in mortality, a certain contradiction which has not yet been able to be explained. During cold spells a marked increase in mortality with a delay of 3 days can be observed. Above normal values last for about 4 weeks and will then be partially compensated by an "undershot". Generally the explanation of variance in winter is distinctly lower than in summer, probably because in winter there is rarely direct exposure to outdoor conditions. The degree of cold stress is likely to serve only as an indicator for indoor conditions which promote infectious diseases.

Impacts of extreme and persistent temperatures : Cold waves and heat waves

The most extensive source of data on natural disasters is held by the insurance industry where the most important occurrences around the World are registered according to the number of deaths and the economic and insured damages incurred. Munich Reinsurance (or "Munich Re"), the world's biggest reinsurance company, has documented the 1963 largest natural disasters that have occurred since 1960 in their "MRNatCatSERVICE (1999a). Natural disaster are considered "large" when they considerably exceed self-help capabilities in the region concerned, making supra-regional on international help necessary. This is usually the case when the numbers of deaths are in the thousands and the number of homeless are counted in the hundreds of thousands, or when substantial economic damage is caused. Forty five of these disasters were associated with earthquakes and 5 with volcanic eruption i.e. about a third were not weather - related (see Figure 1). Only 1.2 percent of the 163 disasters were caused by extreme heat and 10.4 percent by extreme cold, making them very rare occurrences among the great catastrophes (for the 113 disasters caused by meteorological conditions, the corresponding percentages are 1.8 percent and 15.0 percent). Winter damage is not caused by low temperatures, but rather by freezing rain, heavy snowfall and high wind speeds that occur in such climatic conditions. the insurance industry classifies disaster caused by atmospheric conditions as the result of "storm", "flooding" and others, a classification system that is, at times, ambiguous. It is unclear, for example, whether flooding in Bangladesh, is caused by a typhoon, counts as a "storm" or "flooding". Equally, the data rarely indicate "cold" or "storm" as the cause of damage where ice storms or blizzards are concerned. Similar ambiguity also arises with drought and heat. According to insurance industry definitions, the issues addressed in this paper fall into the category classified as "others" (see Figure 2). The occurrences identified in this paper are based on reviews of various information sources such as Climatic Perspectives, Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Lloyd's List, Neue Züricher Zeitung, Monthly Weather Report, Property Claim Services, Online - Reuters, dpa, Süuddeutsche Zeitung, Weekly Climate Bulletin, World Insurance Report, and others, supplied by the MRNatCatSERVICE of Munich Reinsurance (1999a-d). Only confirmed, cross - checked (usually) reports on the extent of damage, obtained from a reliable source, are accepted. For example, the plausibility of damage estimate is checked by the projection of total damage form the insured losses and the insurance density. Sporadic worldwide information on drought/heat is available from 1910 onwards and more or less regularly since 1979. Reports on damage due to winter conditions begin in 1958, and have been available on a regular basis since 1971. Complete information is available since 1986. (AU)

The atmospheric environment--an introduction.

The atmosphere is part of the environment with which the human organism is permanently confronted. Epidemiological research investigates the occurrence of effects on morbidity and mortality due to heat, cold, air pollution and changes in the weather. Concentrating on aspects of the environment relevant for medical questions, three major complexes of effects can be discriminated: the complex conditions of heat exchange, the direct biological effects of solar radiation, and air pollution. Biometeorological knowledge can serve to assess the atmospheric environment, and can also be of help in the field of preventive planning, to conserve and develop the climate as a natural resource with regard to man's health, well-being and performance.

Selected questions of topical interest in human bioclimatology.

This paper deals with the different effects of climate, and the likely impact of climatic change, on the human being, his health and well-being. Those effects follow from consideration of the human energy budget and air pollution, including photooxidants and radiation, the latter especially in the UV-range. The development of tools to produce bioclimate maps, i.e. maps expressed in physiologically significant terms, in different scales up to the high resolution necessary for the microscale urban climate, will be discussed. The most important questions in bioclimate research and its application will be considered.

[The evaluation of the thermal environment of man (author's transl)]. / Ein Verfahren zur Beschreibung des thermischen Umweltmilieus des Menschen.

Many problems in bioclimatology require an accurate knowledge of the variations of all meteorological parameters which influence the thermal environment of man (i.g. short- and long-wave radiation, air temperature, wind velocity and air humidity). In addition to that a method for determining this thermal environment by a biometeorological index has to consider thermophysiologically relevant factors so as activity level and thermal resistance of the clothing. By means of the comfort equation (Fanger, 1970) it is possible, for any activity level and clothing to calculate all combinations of meteorological parameters, which will create optimal thermal comfort. The parametrization of the fluxes of short- and long-wave radiation permits to applicate this equation to outdoor conditions (Jendritzky, Sönning and Swantes, 1977). Examples for calculating some given conditions (i.g. street in the city, cross-country kinesitherapy, special land-use areas within a city) are demonstrated.

[The effect of weather on blood sugar fluctuations in insulin-dependent patients. Medical meteorological observations (author's transl)]. / Einfluss des Wetters auf Blutzucker-schwankungen beim insulinpflichtigen Diabetes mellitus.

In agreement with the results of urinary sugar examinations obtained by other authors it was established that there are probable connections between biochemical parameters and climatic events and that the reaction of the blood sugar to meterological changes may be an index for the changing responses of the body to weather as a stress factor. Further investigations, especially on the temporal distribution of hypoglycemias should contribute to a clearer explanation of the undoubtedly important correlation which could be shown to be helpful in the optimal stabilization of diabetics.

[The effects of the weather on hemophilic hemarthrosis (author's transl)]. / Einflüsse des Wettergeschehens auf die hämophile Gelenkblutung

Hemophilic hemarthroses occur more frequently in spring and autumn. In the present study, possible weather situations are investigated which are characterized by a particular action on the increasing of hemorrhagic tendency. In 574 hemarthroses in 45 patients, the regional weather events were set in relation to the hemarthroses by means of a computer program. The following weather constellations significantly increase the tendency to bleed: Regional west weather conditions combined with longer lasting ascending procedures. The weather dynamics are dominated by the warm face of weak frontal zones with formation of a warm front. The biotropic weather elements demonstrated are also shown to be biotropic in other disease processes.

[Industrial accidents and the weather (author's transl)]. / Betriebsunfälle und Wetter

Of the numerous factors which can be held responsible for the frequency of industrial accidents, the influence of the weather plays a certain role. Accidents occur more frequently during warm air advection with climatic instability (heat thunderstorms), they occur less frequently in north west weather conditions with cold air advection and particularly in east weather conditions. Germans and foreigners are similarly affected by the weather.