Existence of typical winter atmospheric circulation patterns leading to high PM2.5 concentration days in East Asia.

Understanding the atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for severe air pollution events in East Asia is important because East Asia is one of the most polluted regions in the world, particularly during the boreal winter (December-January-February). Here, by conducting GEOS-Chem simulation with fixed anthropogenic emission sources, we found that there exist three typical atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to leading to high concentrations of particulate matter with a diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) in East Asia. These atmospheric circulation patterns are characterized by weakened horizontal winds, which allows PM2.5 to accumulate, and by enhanced relative humidity, which can favor secondary formation of PM2.5. The occurrence of these atmospheric circulation patterns is associated with increased sea ice cover over the Barents Sea and heavy precipitation over the tropical western Indian Ocean. The existence of these atmospheric circulation patterns among typical atmospheric circulation patterns indicates high PM2.5 days in East Asia are unavoidable given current level of anthropogenic emissions in the region. This conclusion indicates that sustained efforts to reduce anthropogenic emission sources in East Asia should be warranted to avoid high PM2.5 days.

Can climate indices forecast daily variations of wintertime PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia?

Synoptic meteorological variability plays an important role in determining air quality. In East Asia, the expansion and contraction of the Siberian high-pressure system is an essential mechanism for determining surface particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) during the winter season. Here, we selected four climate indices that reflected the variability of the Siberian high-pressure system and analyzed their correlation with the daily variability of the observed winter PM2.5 concentrations in China and South Korea over the past six years (2014/15-2019/20). Siberian High Intensity (SHI) and East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) indices were good indicators of daily PM2.5 concentration changes. Two to four days after the daily SHI and EAWM indices exceed the threshold (±1), the daily PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia significantly increased or decreased, up to 40 % compared to the mean winter PM2.5 concentrations. The climate indices associated with the Siberian high-pressure system thus potentially effectively forecast the daily PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia within a period of one week.

Intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns associated with high PM2.5 concentration days in South Korea during the cold season.

Based on observation data and a novel K-mean clustering method, we investigated whether intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns are related with the occurrence of high particulate matter (PM) concentration days (diameters less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5)), in Seoul, South Korea, during the cold season (December to March). A simple composite map shows that weak horizontal and vertical ventilation over the Korean Peninsula can cause high PM2.5 concentration (High_PM2.5) days. Also, atmospheric circulations are quite different between one day of High_PM2.5 and periods longer than two days. We also found that two intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns in Asia, which were obtained by adopting K-mean clustering to the daily 850 hPa geopotential height anomalies for 2005-2020, were associated with High_PM2.5 days. These results indicate that High_PM2.5 days in Seoul, South Korea, occur as a result of intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns, therefore, they are unavoidable unless the anthropogenic emission sources over the Korean Peninsula, East Asia, or both are reduced. In addition, these two intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns are more prominent for periods longer than two days while there are no favorable intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns to induce one day of High_PM2.5, which indicates that a single day of High_PM2.5 tends to occur by a stochastic atmospheric circulation rather than the intrinsic atmospheric circulation patterns.

Dissimilar effects of two El Niño types on PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia.

We investigate the effects of natural variability of meteorological fields on surface PM2.5 concentration changes in East Asia during El Niño periods for the past three decades (1980-2014) through GEOS-Chem 3D global chemical transport model simulations. First, our evaluation of the model with anthropogenic emissions for 2006 and a comparison against observations show that the simulated results accurately reproduced the observed spatial distribution of annual mean aerosol concentrations for 2006-2007 including inorganic (sulfate, ammonium, and nitrate) and carbonaceous (organic and black carbon) aerosols in the surface air. Based on the Oceanic Niño Index, the assimilated meteorological data used in the model simulations indicate that 10 El Niño events occurred for the past three decades (1980-2014). We further classified the 10 El Niño events into 6 central Pacific El Niño (C-type) and 4 eastern Pacific El Niño (E-type) to examine the different roles of two El Niño types in determining seasonal surface PM2.5 concentrations in East Asia. We find opposite impacts on the seasonal surface PM2.5 concentrations depending on two El Niño types, such that the surface PM2.5 concentrations during the E-type period are higher than the climatological mean value, especially in northern East Asia. The peak increase of as much as 20% occurs in winter and is sustained until the following spring. However, the C-type period shows a decrease in seasonal PM2.5 concentrations in northern East Asia compare to the climatological mean, and the peak decrease of as much as 10% occurs in the following spring. The different of two El Niño types also have dissimilar impacts on surface PM2.5 concentrations in southeastern China. Natural variation of aerosol concentrations driven by the different of two El Niño types appears to be significant and would be an important factor in determining the inter-annual variation of aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

Efficacy of dust aerosol forecasts for East Asia using the adjoint of GEOS-Chem with ground-based observations.

Asian dust storms occur often and have a great impact on East Asia and the western Pacific in spring. Early warnings based on reliable forecasts of dust storms thus are crucial for protecting human health and industry. Here we explore the efficacy of 4-D variational method-based data assimilation in a chemical transport model for dust storm forecasts in East Asia. We use a 3-D global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) and its adjoint model with surface PM10 mass concentration observations. We evaluate the model for several severe dust storm events, which occurred in May 2007 and March 2011 in East Asia. First of all, simulated the PM10 mass concentrations with the forward model showed large discrepancies compared with PM10 mass concentrations observed in China, Korea, and Japan, implying large uncertainties of simulated dust emission fluxes in the source regions. Based on our adjoint model constrained by observations for the whole period of each event, the reproduction of the spatial and temporal distributions of observations over East Asia was substantially improved (regression slopes from 0.15 to 2.81 to 0.85-1.02 and normalized mean biases from -74%-151% to -34%-1%). We then examine the efficacy of the data assimilation system for daily dust storm forecasts based on the adjoint model including previous day observations to update the initial condition of the forward model simulation for the next day. The forecast results successfully captured the spatial and temporal variations of ground-based observations in downwind regions, indicating that the data assimilation system with ground-based observations effectively forecasts dust storms, especially in downwind regions. However, the efficacy is limited in nearby the dust source regions, including Mongolia and North China, due to the lack of observations for constraining the model.

Winter monsoon variability and its impact on aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

We investigate the relationship between winter aerosol concentrations over East Asia and variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) using GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model simulations and ground-based aerosol concentration data. We find that both observed and modeled surface aerosol concentrations have strong relationships with the intensity of the EAWM over northern (30-50°N, 100-140°E) and southern (20-30°N, 100-140°E) East Asia. In strong winter monsoon years, compared to weak winter monsoon years, lower and higher surface PM2.5 concentrations by up to 25% are shown over northern and southern East Asia, respectively. Analysis of the simulated results indicates that the southward transport of aerosols is a key process controlling changes in aerosol concentrations over East Asia associated with the EAWM. Variability in the EAWM is found to play a major role in interannual variations in aerosol concentrations; consequently, changes in the EAWM will be important for understanding future changes in wintertime air quality over East Asia.

Weekly variability of precipitation induced by anthropogenic aerosols: A case study in Korea in summer 2004.

We examine the effect of anthropogenic aerosols on the weekly variability of precipitation in Korea in summer 2004 by using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) models. We conduct two WRF simulations including a baseline simulation with empirically based cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations and a sensitivity simulation with our implementation to account for the effect of aerosols on CCN number concentrations. The first simulation underestimates observed precipitation amounts, particularly in northeastern coastal areas of Korea, whereas the latter shows higher precipitation amounts that are in better agreement with the observations. In addition, the sensitivity model with the aerosol effects reproduces the observed weekly variability, particularly for precipitation frequency with a high R at 0.85, showing 20% increase of precipitation events during the weekend than those during weekdays. We find that the aerosol effect results in higher CCN number concentrations during the weekdays and a three-fold increase of the cloud water mixing ratio through enhanced condensation. As a result, the amount of warm rain is generally suppressed because of the low auto-conversion process from cloud water to rain water under high aerosol conditions. The inefficient conversion, however, leads to higher vertical development of clouds in the mid-atmosphere with stronger updrafts in the sensitivity model, which increases by 21% cold-phase hydrometeors including ice, snow, and graupel relative to the baseline model and ultimately results in higher precipitation amounts in summer.

Effect of anthropogenic sulphate aerosol in China on the drought in the western-to-central US.

In recent decades, droughts have occurred in the western-to-central United States (US), significantly affecting food production, water supplies, ecosystem health, and the propagation of vector-borne diseases. Previous studies have suggested natural sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the Pacific as the main driver of precipitation deficits in the US. Here, we show that the aerosol forcing in China, which has been known to alter the regional hydrological cycle in East Asia, may also contribute to reducing the precipitation in the western-to-central US through atmospheric teleconnections across the Pacific. Our model experiments show some indications that both the SST forcing and the increase in regional sulphate forcing in China play a similar role in modulating the western-to-central US precipitation, especially its long-term variation. This result indicates that regional air quality regulations in China have important implications for hydrological cycles in East Asia, as well as in the US.

Direct radiative forcing due to aerosols in Asia during March 2002.

The Asian dust aerosol model (ADAM) and the aerosol dynamic model including the gas-aerosol interaction processes together with the Column Radiation Model (CRM) of Community Climate Model 3 and the output of the fifth generation of meso-scale model (MM5) in a grid 60 x 60 km2 in the Asian domain (70-150E, Equator-50N) have been employed to estimate direct radiative forcing of the Asian dust and the anthropogenic aerosols including the BC, OC, secondary inorganic aerosol (SIA), mixed type aerosol (dust+BC+OC+SIA) and sea salt aerosols at the surface, the top of atmosphere (TOA) and in the atmosphere for the period of 1-31 March 2002 during which a severe Asian dust event has been occurred in the model domain. The results indicate that the ADAM model and the aerosol dynamic model simulate quite well the spatial and temporal distributions of the mass concentration of aerosols with the R2 value of more than 0.7. The estimated mean total column aerosol mass in the analysis domain for the whole period is found to be about 78 mg m(-2), of which 66% and 34% are, respectively, contributed by the Asian dust aerosol and all the other anthropogenic aerosols. However, the direct radiative forcing contributed by the Asian dust aerosol is about 22% of the mean radiative forcing at the surface (-6.8 W m(-2)), about 31% at the top of atmosphere (-2.9 W m(-2)) and about 13% in the atmosphere (3.8 W m(-2)), suggesting relatively inefficient contribution of the Asian dust aerosol on the direct radiative forcing compared to the anthropogenic aerosols. The aerosol direct radiative forcing at the surface is mainly contributed by the mixed type aerosol (30%) and the SIA aerosol (25%) while at the top of atmosphere it is mainly contributed by the SIA aerosol (43%) and the Asian dust aerosol (31%) with positively (warming) contributed by BC and mixed type aerosols. The atmosphere is warmed mainly by the mixed type aerosol (55%) and the BC aerosol (26%). However, the largest radiative intensity of direct radiative forcing of aerosols is the BC aerosol.