Understanding land use volatility and agglomeration in northern Southeast Asia.

Land use change has generally been considered a cause and consequence of environmental change. Here, we interpreted the land cover in northern Southeast Asia (including parts of Myanmar, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam and China) year by year from 2000 to 2018 with the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. The results show that the areas of old growth forest, young growth forest and annual crops have changed dramatically in the study area. The average frequency of land use change was determined to be 5.4 times (that is, the land use changed every 3.4 years) by comparing the land use types in each year throughout the entire study period, and the frequency of land use change showed a significant agglomeration effect. In addition, there was a substantial difference between the land use change determined with an annual approach and that determined with the commonly used time-stage approach; time-stage land use change studies may overlook gradual change processes in land use change, which highlights the necessary of determining a suitable time period for studying land use change at the local scale. The results show that understanding land use volatility and agglomeration has become important to deepen the understanding of land use change and to help formulate land use policy.

Campylobacter infections expected to increase due to climate change in Northern Europe.

Global climate change is predicted to alter precipitation and temperature patterns across the world, affecting a range of infectious diseases and particularly foodborne infections such as Campylobacter. In this study, we used national surveillance data to analyse the relationship between climate and campylobacteriosis in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden and estimate the impact of climate changes on future disease patterns. We show that Campylobacter incidences are linked to increases in temperature and especially precipitation in the week before illness, suggesting a non-food transmission route. These four countries may experience a doubling of Campylobacter cases by the end of the 2080s, corresponding to around 6,000 excess cases per year caused only by climate changes. Considering the strong worldwide burden of campylobacteriosis, it is important to assess local and regional impacts of climate change in order to initiate timely public health management and adaptation strategies.

Greenlandic sheep farming controlled by vegetation response today and at the end of the 21st century.

The spatial heterogeneity of vegetation greenness and potential aboveground biomass production for sheep farming has been assessed for Southwest Greenland. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) model was set up to identify biophysical constraints on the present spatial distribution of farms and fields based on all existing sheep farms in a detailed study area. Time-integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI) from MODIS and observed temperatures (2000-2012) have been combined with a downscaled regional climate model (HIRHAM5) in order to establish a spatio-temporal model for future TI-NDVI, thus forecasting the dry biomass production available for sheep farming in steps of decades for the next 85 years. The model has been validated against observed biomass production and the present distribution of fields. Future biomass production is used to discuss the expansion of current farms and to identify new suitable areas for sheep farming. Interestingly, new suitable areas are located where sheep farms were situated during the Norse era more than 1000 years ago; areas which have been abandoned for the past 500 years. The study highlights the potential of establishing new areas for sheep farming in Arctic Greenland, where current and future climate changes are markedly amplified compared to global trends. However, for the study area the MCE model clearly indicates that the potential of expansion relies on contemporary infrastructural development.

A conceptual framework for analysing and measuring land-use intensity.

Large knowledge gaps currently exist that limit our ability to understand and characterise dynamics and patterns of land-use intensity: in particular, a comprehensive conceptual framework and a system of measurement are lacking. This situation hampers the development of a sound understanding of the mechanisms, determinants, and constraints underlying changes in land-use intensity. On the basis of a review of approaches for studying land-use intensity, we propose a conceptual framework to quantify and analyse land-use intensity. This framework integrates three dimensions: (a) input intensity, (b) output intensity, and (c) the associated system-level impacts of land-based production (e.g. changes in carbon storage or biodiversity). The systematic development of indicators across these dimensions would provide opportunities for the systematic analyses of the trade-offs, synergies and opportunity costs of land-use intensification strategies.

Human papillomavirus transmission and cost-effectiveness of introducing quadrivalent HPV vaccination in Denmark.

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to simulate human papillomavirus (HPV) infection in a heterosexual population and subsequently analyze the incremental costs and effects of introducing a vaccination program against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 in Denmark compared with screening alone. METHODS: The analysis was performed in two phases. First, an agent-based transmission model was developed that described the HPV transmission without and with HPV vaccination. Second, an analysis of the incremental costs and effects was performed. The results of prevalence estimates of HPV, genital warts, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN1-3), and cervical cancer in the model simulations before and after introduction of HPV vaccination were extrapolated to the Danish population figures. Incremental costs and effects were then estimated. Future costs and effects were discounted. RESULTS: Cost-effectiveness ratios for annual vaccination of 12-year-old girls, with a vaccination rate of 70 percent without a catch-up program, were estimated at approximately 1,917 euro per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY, 3 percent discount rate) and 10,846 euro/QALY (5 percent discount rate), given a 62-year time horizon. CONCLUSIONS: A vaccination program would incur extra vaccination costs but would save treatment costs and improve both quality of life and survival.

Spatio-temporal cluster analysis of the incidence of Campylobacter cases and patients with general diarrhea in a Danish county, 1995-2004.

Campylobacter infections are the main cause of bacterial gastroenteritis in Denmark. While primarily foodborne, Campylobacter infections are also to some degree acquired through other sources which may include contact with animals or the environment, locally contaminated drinking water and more. We analyzed Campylobacter cases for clustering in space and time for the large Danish island of Funen in the period 1995-2003, under the assumption that infections caused by 'environmental' factors may show persistent clustering while foodborne infections will occur randomly in space. Input data were geo-coded datasets of the addresses of laboratory-confirmed Campylobacter cases and of the background population of Funen County. The dataset had a spatial extent of 4.900 km2. Data were aggregated into units of analysis (so-called features) of 5 km by 5 km times 1 year, and the Campylobacter incidence calculated. We used a modified form of local Moran's I to test if features with similar incidence rates occurred next to each other in space and time, and compared the observed clusters with simulated clusters. Because clusters may be caused by a high tendency among local GPs to submit stool samples, we also analyzed a dataset of all submitted stool samples for comparison. The results showed a significant persisting clustering of Campylobacter incidence rates in the Western part of Funen. Results were visualized using the Netlogo software. The underlying causes of the observed clustering are not known and will require further examination, but may be partially explained by an increased rate of stool samples submissions by physicians in the area. We hope, by this approach, to have developed a tool which will allow for analyses of geographical clusters which may in turn form a basis for further epidemiological examinations to cast light on the sources of infection.