ABSTRACT
Background and objective: Futile recanalization (FR) is defined as patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to large vessel occlusion who still exhibits functional dependence although undergoing successful mechanical thrombectomy (MT). We aimed to develop and validate a simple nomogram for predicting the probability of FR after MT treatment in AIS patients. Methods: Clinical data of AIS patients in the Jrecan clinical trial in China from March 2018 to June 2019 were collected as the derivation set (n = 162). Meanwhile, clinical data of AIS patients who underwent MT in Baotou Central Hospital and Ningbo No.2 Hospital from 2019 to 2021 were collected as the validation set (n = 170). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed for all variables that had p < 0.2 in the univariate analysis in the derivation set. The independent risk factors of FR were further screened out and a nomogram was constructed. The performance of the nomogram was analyzed in the derivation and validation set using C-index, calibration plots, and decision curves. Results: No significant difference in FR rate was detected between the derivation set and the validation set [88/162 (54.32%) and 82/170 (48.23%), p = 0.267]. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥ 65 years old (OR = 2.096, 95%CI 1.024-4.289, p = 0.043), systolic blood pressure (SBP) ≥ 180 mmHg (OR = 5.624, 95%CI 1.141-27.717, p = 0.034), onset to recanalization time (OTR) ≥ 453 min (OR = 2.759, 95%CI 1.323-5.754, p = 0.007), 24 h intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH; OR = 4.029, 95%CI 1.844 ~ 8.803, p < 0.001) were independent risk factors for FR. The C-index of the nomogram of the derivation set and the verification set were 0.739 (95%CI 0.662~0.816) and 0.703 (95%CI 0.621~0.785), respectively. Conclusion: The nomogram composed of age, SBP, OTR, and 24 h ICH can effectively predict the probability of FR after MT in AIS patients.
ABSTRACT
Background: The past decade has witnessed advancements in mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for acute large-vessel occlusions (LVOs). However, only approximately half of the patients with LVO undergoing MT show the best/independent 90-day favorable outcome. This study aimed to develop a nomogram for predicting 90-day poor outcomes in patients with LVO treated with MT. Methods: A total of 187 patients who received MT were retrospectively analyzed. Factors associated with 90-day poor outcomes (defined as mRS of 4-6) were determined by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyzes. One best-fit nomogram was established to predict the risk of a 90-day poor outcome, and a concordance index was utilized to evaluate the performance of the model. Additionally, 145 patients from a single stroke center were retrospectively recruited as the validation cohort to test the newly established nomogram. Results: The overall incidence of 90-day poor outcomes was 45.16%, affecting 84 of 186 patients in the training set. Moreover, five variables, namely, age (odds ratio [OR]: 1.049, 95% CI [1.016-1.083]; p = 0.003), glucose level (OR: 1.163, 95% CI [1.038-1.303]; p = 0.009), baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (OR: 1.066, 95% CI [0.995-1.142]; p = 0.069), unsuccessful recanalization (defined as a TICI grade of 0 to 2a) (OR: 3.730, 95% CI [1.688-8.245]; p = 0.001), and early neurological deterioration (END, defined as an increase of ≥4 points between the baseline NIHSS score and the NIHSS score at 24 h after MT) (OR: 3.383, 95% CI [1.411-8.106]; p = 0.006), were included in the nomogram to predict the potential risk of poor outcomes at 90 days following MT in LVO patients, with a C-index of 0.763 (0.693-0.832) in the training set and 0.804 (0.719-0.889) in the validation set. Conclusion: The proposed nomogram provided clinical evidence for the effective control of these risk factors before or during the process of MT surgery in LVO patients.
