An Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model for Predicting Varicella Outbreaks - China, 2019.

Introduction: Varicella, a prevalent respiratory infection among children, has become an escalating public health issue in China. The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems. This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country. Methods: An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018. To determine statistically significant models, parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed. The coefficients of determination (R2) and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were compared to selecting an optimal model. This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019. Results: Four models passed parameter (all P<0.05) and Ljung-Box tests (all P>0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R2 (0.271) and standardized BIC (14.970). Fitted values made by the ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)12 model closely followed the values observed in 2019, the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%. Conclusion: The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks. This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.

Liquid-Metal-Printed Ultrathin Oxides for Atomically Smooth 2D Material Heterostructures.

Two-dimensional (2D) semiconductors are promising channel materials for continued downscaling of complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor (CMOS) logic circuits. However, their full potential continues to be limited by a lack of scalable high-k dielectrics that can achieve atomically smooth interfaces, small equivalent oxide thicknesses (EOTs), excellent gate control, and low leakage currents. Here, large-area liquid-metal-printed ultrathin Ga2O3 dielectrics for 2D electronics and optoelectronics are reported. The atomically smooth Ga2O3/WS2 interfaces enabled by the conformal nature of liquid metal printing are directly visualized. Atomic layer deposition compatibility with high-k Ga2O3/HfO2 top-gate dielectric stacks on a chemical-vapor-deposition-grown monolayer WS2 is demonstrated, achieving EOTs of ∼1 nm and subthreshold swings down to 84.9 mV/dec. Gate leakage currents are well within requirements for ultrascaled low-power logic circuits. These results show that liquid-metal-printed oxides can bridge a crucial gap in dielectric integration of 2D materials for next-generation nanoelectronics.

Unveiling interactions of norfloxacin with microplastic in surface water by 2D FTIR correlation spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy analyses.

Microplastics (MPs) has shown adsorption of hydrophilic organic matters (HOMs) in aqueous environments. However, it is still difficult to predict the adsorption behaviors of HOMs by different MPs, especially in authentic water systems. In this study, the adsorption behaviors and mechanisms of norfloxacin (NOR) onto polyamide (PA) MPs were investigated in both simulated and real surface water. The results showed that the adsorption equilibrium of NOR by PA in simulated surface water could be achieved within 15 h, while the adsorption rate of NOR in real surface was slowed down, with the equilibrium time of 25 h. Pseudo-second-order model could well describe the adsorption kinetics data. The experimental maximum adsorption capacity of NOR on PA in real surface water (e. g. 132.54 ug/g) was dramatically reduced by 37.5 % compared with that in simulated surface water (e. g. 212.25 ug/g), and the adsorption isotherm would obey Freundlich model. Besides, the leaching of NOR from the surface of PA could occur obviously at acidic environment. Furthermore, the salinity and natural organic matter exhibited significantly adverse effects on the NOR adsorption. Finally, the results of 2D Fourier transform infrared correlation spectroscopy and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy indicated that the electrostatic, H-bond and van der Waals interactions were involved in the adsorption. More importantly, the sequential functional groups in the adsorption process followed the orders: 1638 (CO) > 1542 amide II (-NH-CO) > 717 (CH2) > 1445 (CO) > 973 amide IV (CONH). This study could provide an insight into the interactions between PA and NOR in different water environments.

Epidemiological Characteristics of Varicella Outbreaks - China, 2006-2022.

Introduction: Varicella outbreaks significantly disrupt schools and other child-centered institutions. This study aimed to identify patterns and epidemiological features of varicella outbreaks in China from 2006 to 2022. Methods: Data were extracted from outbreak reports submitted to the Public Health Emergency Reporting Management Information System within the specified timeframe. Analytical methods included Spearman correlation tests and the Mann-Kendall trend tests, conducted using R software to analyze and summarize reported data. Additionally, statistical analyses of trends and epidemiological characteristics were performed using SPSS software. Results: Between 2006 and 2022, a total of 11,990 varicella outbreaks were reported in China, resulting in 354,082 cases. The attack rates showed a decreasing trend over the years (Z=-4.49, P<0.05). These outbreaks occurred in two peaks annually. The eastern region accounted for the highest number of outbreaks (31.53%), followed by the southwestern (24.22%) and southern (17.93%) regions. Varicella outbreaks were most common in elementary schools. Most of the outbreaks (60.43%) were classified as Grade IV (general) severity, with 86.41% of the outbreaks having 10-49 cases. The median and inter-quartile ranges (IQR) of the duration of outbreaks, response time, and case counts were 21 (10, 39) days, 4 (0, 12) days, and 23 (16, 35) cases, respectively. These variables showed a positive correlation (P<0.001). Conclusions: Varicella outbreaks exhibited fluctuating trends, initially decreasing until 2012, followed by an increase, reaching the highest peak in 2018-2019. Continual monitoring of varicella epidemiology is necessary to assess the burden of the disease and formulate evidence-based strategies and policies for its prevention and control.

Tiaojing Cuyun Recipe Enhances Pregnancy Outcome via the VEGF/PI3K/AKT/eNOS Signaling Pathway in EID Mice.

PURPOSE: In this study, we evaluated the effect of Tiaojing Cuyun Recipe (TJCYR) on embryo implantation dysfunction- (EID-) induced damage of endometrial receptivity in mice and investigated the mechanisms underlying the effect. METHODS: The main compounds of TJCYR were identified by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). One hundred and twenty pregnant mice were randomly divided into six groups: control, EID only, progesterone (Prog)+EID, TJCYR-low-dose+EID, TJCYR-medium-dose+EID, and TJCYR-high-dose+EID. Mifepristone was injected to make the EID model. On the fourth day of pregnancy, serum was obtained to analyze hormone level by radioimmunoassay, the uterus was collected to analyze morphology by hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and a combination of immunofluorescence and Western blot was used to identify the related proteins. On the eighth day of pregnancy, the mice were sacrificed and the number of uterus-implanted blastocysts was counted. RESULTS: Treatment with TJCYR significantly improved the number of implanted sites, the number of well-developed pinopodes, and microvascular formation in the mice. Moreover, TJCYR significantly activated PI3K/Akt/eNOS signaling pathways to promote angiogenesis, resulting in significantly improved endometrial receptivity and fertility outcomes when compared to the model group. CONCLUSION: These findings demonstrate that TJCYR was able to protect embryo implantation of EID mice due to TJCYR-mediated improvement in endometrial receptivity by promoting endometrial angiogenesis.

Quantifying navigation complexity in transportation networks.

The complexity of navigation in cities has increased with the expansion of urban areas, creating challenging transportation problems that drive many studies on the navigability of networks. However, due to the lack of individual mobility data, large-scale empirical analysis of the wayfinder's real-world navigation is rare. Here, using 225 million subway trips from three major cities in China, we quantify navigation difficulty from an information perspective. Our results reveal that (1) people conserve a small number of repeatedly used routes and (2) the navigation information in the subnetworks formed by those routes is much smaller than the theoretical value in the global network, suggesting that the decision cost for actual trips is significantly smaller than the theoretical upper limit found in previous studies. By modeling routing behaviors in growing networks, we show that while the global network becomes difficult to navigate, navigability can be improved in subnetworks. We further present a universal linear relationship between the empirical and theoretical search information, which allows the two metrics to predict each other. Our findings demonstrate how large-scale observations can quantify real-world navigation behaviors and aid in evaluating transportation planning.

Health Education in the Healthy China Initiative 2019-2030.

As the first of 15 Healthy China initiatives, the Health Education Initiative has the crucially important goal of improving citizens' health literacy. There are two key activities in the initiative for improving health literacy. The first is to establish a mechanism for dissemination of health sciences knowledge through development of national and provincial databases of health sciences expertise and a national resource of accessible health knowledge. The second is to establish a health education and health promotion performance evaluation mechanism for medical institutions and medical personnel. In this paper, we analyzed the content and strategies of these two health educational activities.

One-step preparation of well-dispersed spindle-like Fe2O3 nanoparticles on g-C3N4 as highly efficient photocatalysts.

Photocatalysis has attracted wide attention due to its outstanding advantages in dealing with sewage. And compounds of metal oxides and g-C3N4 that possess Z-type heterojunctions have become the star photocatalysts in degrading pollutants. In this paper, a novel one-step method for the preparation of highly efficient photocatalyst of Fe2O3/g-C3N4, using Fe (NO3)3 and urea as raw materials, is described. Under the optimized condition, the one-step synthesized photocatalyst of FeGCN-0.10 showed higher photocatalytic performance compared with the multi-step prepared photocatalyst, and the rate of removing basic fuchsin was 92% (210 min), which was 19.5% higher than that of the latter. Furthermore, different methods were also applied for characterizing Fe2O3/g-C3N4. Structural characterization results confirmed the composites of Fe2O3/g-C3N4. Morphological characterization results showed that spindle-like Fe2O3 particles were distributed more evenly on the layered g-C3N4 compared with the impregnation method. Optical characterization results demonstrated the high intensity of the separated photo-generated electron-hole pairs and of Fe2O3/g-C3N4, which uncovered the removing mechanism of basic fuchsin.