Fire regime dynamics in mainland Spain. Part 2: A near-future prospective of fire activity.

The current research belongs to a series of two manuscripts aiming at describing spatial-temporal dynamics of fire regime and its drivers in Spain. In this work, we present the first attempt to produce a spatial-temporal delimitation of homogeneous fire regime zones in Spain providing insights into the near future. The analyses were based on historical fire records; leveraging autoregressive models to project fire features into the near future. We evaluated the spatial extent of homogenous fire regime zones in three different periods: past (1974-1994), current (1995-2015) and future (2016-2036). To do so, we applied Principal Component Analysis and Ward's hierarchical clustering to identify zones of fire regime on the basis of the spatial and temporal arrangement of their main fire features: number of fires, burned area, burnt area from natural-caused fires, incidence of large fires (> 100 ha) and seasonality. Clusters of fire regime were trained in the current period, being later projected into the past and future periods using of k-Nearest Neighbor classification. ARIMA modeling forecasted a shrinkage in all fire features except natural-caused fires that remained stable. Overall, we detected a transition from significant fire incidence in the past towards a situation with moderate impact of fires in the near future. The Mediterranean coast experienced the largest decline in fire activity with few locations maintaining the historical levels of occurrence of large fires. On the other hand, the Northwestern end of Spain depicted a progression towards winter fire activity while still linked to large fires. This pattern persisted in the near future along the northern coast, whereas an intermix of minor fire progression and regression was expected thorough the hinterlands and the Mediterranean.

The role of short-term weather conditions in temporal dynamics of fire regime features in mainland Spain.

In this paper we investigate spatial-temporal associations of fire weather danger and fire regime features from 1979 to 2013. We analyze monthly time series of fire activity (number of fires and burned area) and fire weather danger rating indices (Fire Weather Index, Burning Index and Forest Fire Danger Index) at two spatial scales: (i) regionally, splitting the Spanish mainland into Northwest, Hinterland and Mediterranean regions; and (ii) locally, using the EMCWF grid. All analyses are based on decomposing time series to retrieve differential indicators of seasonal cycles, temporal evolution and anomalies. At regional scale we apply lagged cross-correlation analysis (4 lags or months before fire) to explore seasonal associations; and trend detection tests on the temporal evolution component. At the local scale, we calculate Pearson correlation coefficients between each individual index and the 18 possible fire-activity subsets according to fire size (all sizes, >1 ha and >100 ha) and source of ignition (natural, unintended and arson); this analysis is applied to both cycles, temporal and anomalies series. Results suggest that weather controls seasonal fire activity although it has limited influence on temporal evolution, i.e. trends. Stronger associations are detected in the number of fires in the Northwest and Hinterland regions compared to the Mediterranean, which has desynchronized from weather since 1994. Cross-correlation analysis revealed significant fire-weather associations in the Hinterland and Mediterranean, extending up to two months prior fire ignition. On the other hand, the association between temporal trends and weather is weaker, being negative along the Mediterranean and even significant in the case of burned area. The spatial disaggregation into grid cells reveals different spatial patterns across fire-activity subsets. Again, the connection at seasonal level is noticeable, especially in natural-caused fires. In turn, human-related wildfires are occasionally found independent from weather in some areas along the northern coast or the Ebro basin. In any case, this effect diminishes as the size of the fire increases. Our work suggests that for some regions of mainland Spain, these fire danger indices could provide useful information about upcoming fire activity up to two months ahead of time and this information could be used to better inform wildland fire prevention and suppression activities.

A comprehensive spatial-temporal analysis of driving factors of human-caused wildfires in Spain using Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression.

Over the last decades, authorities responsible on forest fire have encouraged research on fire triggering factors, recognizing this as a critical point to achieve a greater understanding of fire occurrence patterns and improve preventive measures. The key objectives of this study are to investigate and analyze spatial-temporal changes in the contribution of wildfire drivers in Spain, and provide deeper insights into the influence of fire features: cause, season and size. We explored several subsets of fire occurrence combining cause (negligence/accident and arson), season (summer-spring and winter-fall) and size (<1 Ha, 1-100 Ha and >100 Ha). The analysis is carried out fitting Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression models in two separate time periods (1988-1992, soon after Spain joined the European Union; and 2006-2010, after several decades of forest management). Our results suggest that human factors are losing performance with climate factors taking over, which may be ultimately related to the success in recent prevention policies. In addition, we found strong differences in the performance of occurrence models across subsets, thus models based on long-term historical fire records might led to misleading conclusions. Overall, fire management should move towards differential prevention measurements and recommendations due to the observed variability in drivers' behavior over time and space, paying special attention to winter fires.