Climate change and land cover effects on water yield in a subtropical watershed spanning the yungas-chaco transition of Argentina.

The demand for mountain water resources is increasing, and their availability is threatened by climate change, emphasizing the urgency for effective protection and management. The upper Sali-Dulce watershed holds vital significance as it contributes the majority of the Sali-Dulce water resources, supporting a densely populated dry region in Northwestern Argentina, covering an area of 24,217 km2. However, the potential impact of climate change and land use/land cover change on water yield in this watershed remains uncertain. This study employs the InVEST Annual Water Yield model to analyze the average water yield in the watershed and evaluate its potential changes under future scenarios of climate and land use/land cover change. InVEST was calibrated using data from multiple river gauges located across the watershed, indicating satisfactory performance (R2 = 0.751, p-value = 0.0054). Precipitation and evapotranspiration were the most important variables explaining water yield in the area, followed by land use. Water yield showed a notable concentration in the montane area with 40% of the watershed accounting for 80% of the water yield, underscoring the importance of conserving natural land cover in this critical zone. Climate change scenarios project an increase in water yield ranging from 21 to 75%, while the effects of land cover change scenarios on water yield vary, with reforestation scenarios leading to reductions of up to 15% and expansions in non-irrigated agriculture resulting in increases of up to 40%. Additionally, water yield distribution may become more concentrated or dispersed, largely dependent on the type of land cover. The combined scenarios highlight the pivotal role of land cover in adapting to climate change. Our findings provide valuable insights for designing future studies and developing policies aimed at implementing effective adaptation strategies to climate change within the Salí-Dulce watershed.

Counterurbanization: A neglected pathway of forest transition.

Human settlement into rural areas (counterurbanization) is generating new patterns of reforestation, with distinctive features compared to the previously considered pathways of forest transition through "economic development" and "forest scarcity". Here, we discuss the specific features of this neglected pathway of forest recovery and describe the process with the support of study cases around the world. This pathway includes specific motivations (e.g., natural amenities, outdoor recreation), particular socio-economic processes, conflicts between newcomers and locals, and specific ecological outcomes (e.g., a larger proportion of non-native species in the new forests). Although this pathway locally affects small areas, as a widespread and expanding process around the world, counterurbanization could have a growing global effect, with the potential to modify biodiversity, ecosystem services, and cultural values. These novel characteristics should be further explored to better understand the patterns and processes of forest transitions in a context of a globally connected world.