How many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the US if its interventions were as effective as those in China and South Korea?

The COVID-19 [1] pandemic has forced governments to take measures to contain the spread of the disease [2]; however, the effects have varied significantly from one country to another contingent on governments responses. Countries that have flattened their coronavirus curves prove that interventions can bring COVID-19 under control. These achievements hold lessons, such as the strict social distancing and coordinated efforts of all government levels in China and massive testing in South Korea, for other countries battling the coronavirus around the world. In this work, we attempt to estimate how many COVID-19 cases could have been prevented in the United States (US) when compared with the USs actual number of cases assuming that on a certain date, the US took China-like or South Korea-like interventions and that these interventions would have been as effective in the US as in China and South Korea. We found that if that date was at the early stage of the outbreak (March 10), more than 99% (1.15 million) fewer infected cases could be expected by the end of the epidemic. This number decreases to 66.03% and 73.06% fewer infected cases with the China-like scenario and the South Korea-like scenario, respectively, if actions were taken on April 1, highlighting the need to respond quickly and effectively to fight the virus. Furthermore, we found that although interventions in both China and South Korea allowed the COVID-19 outbreak to be managed, the epidemic could still oscillate without strict large-scale lockdown measures, as shown in South Korea. Our results demonstrate that early effective interventions can save considerably more people from infection and provide a worldwide alert regard the need for swift response.

Serial interval and generation interval for respectively the imported and local infectors estimated using reported contact-tracing data of COVID-19 in China

BackgroundsThe emerging virus, COVID-19, has caused a massive out-break worldwide. Based on the publicly available contact-tracing data, we identified 337 transmission chains from 10 provinces in China and estimated the serial interval (SI) and generation interval (GI) of COVID-19 in China. MethodsInspired by possibly different values of the time-varying reproduction number for the imported cases and the local cases in China, we divided all transmission events into three subsets: imported (the zeroth generation) infecting 1st-generation locals, 1st-generation locals infecting 2nd-generation locals, and others transmissions among 2+ generations. The corresponding SI (GI) is respec-tively denoted as [Formula], and [Formula]. A Bayesian approach with doubly interval-censored likelihood is employed to fit the lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distribution function of the SI and GI using the identified 337 transmission chains. FindingsIt is found that the estimated [Formula], and [Formula], thus overall both SI and GI decrease when generation increases.

Chances in prevalence of overweight and obesity in a community in Chongqing from 2003-2013 / 重庆医学

Objective To investigate and compare the prevalence of overweight,obesity and central obesity in 2003 and 2013 in a community in Chongqing,and to analyse their prevalence trends.Methods Surveys were conducted in 2003 and 2013 in the community population,and the investigation included questionnaires,anthropometric measurements,blood glucose and lipid determination.Results The number of participants in 2003 and 2013 were 3 073 and 5 938,respectively.The age standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 44.3％ in 2003 to 45.5％ in 2013 in males and declined from 28.3％ to 26.6％ in females,but there was no statistically significant difference(P=0.407,0.260).The age standardized prevalence of obesity was steady in males (10.0％ vs.10.3％,P＞0.05),but declined significantly in females (8.3％ vs.6.3％,P＜0.05).For central obesity,the age standardized prevalence in 2003 and 2013 was 50.9％,53.9％ in males and 39.6％,35.7％ in females,which increased significantly among males and decreased significantly among females (P=0.042,0.017).Conclusion The prevalence of overweight,general obesity and central obesity is relatively high in the community,and males have a more significant increase in the prevalence of central obesity.

Chances in prevalence of overweight and obesity in a community in Chongqing from 2003-2013 / 重庆医学

Objective To investigate and compare the prevalence of overweight,obesity and central obesity in 2003 and 2013 in a community in Chongqing,and to analyse their prevalence trends.Methods Surveys were conducted in 2003 and 2013 in the community population,and the investigation included questionnaires,anthropometric measurements,blood glucose and lipid determination.Results The number of participants in 2003 and 2013 were 3 073 and 5 938,respectively.The age standardized prevalence of overweight increased from 44.3％ in 2003 to 45.5％ in 2013 in males and declined from 28.3％ to 26.6％ in females,but there was no statistically significant difference(P=0.407,0.260).The age standardized prevalence of obesity was steady in males (10.0％ vs.10.3％,P＞0.05),but declined significantly in females (8.3％ vs.6.3％,P＜0.05).For central obesity,the age standardized prevalence in 2003 and 2013 was 50.9％,53.9％ in males and 39.6％,35.7％ in females,which increased significantly among males and decreased significantly among females (P=0.042,0.017).Conclusion The prevalence of overweight,general obesity and central obesity is relatively high in the community,and males have a more significant increase in the prevalence of central obesity.