A model based on cellular automata for investigating the impact of lockdown, migration and vaccination on COVID-19 dynamics.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: COVID-19 pandemic continues unabated due to the rapid spread of new mutant strains of the virus. Decentralized cluster containment is an efficient approach to manage the pandemic in the long term, without straining the healthcare system and economy. In this study, the objective is to forecast the peak and duration of COVID-19 spread in a cluster under different conditions, using a probabilistic cellular automata configuration designed to include the observed characteristics of the pandemic with appropriate neighbourhood schemes and transition rules. METHODS: The cellular automata, initially configured to have only susceptible and exposed states, enlarges and evolves in discrete time steps to different infection states of the COVID-19 pandemic. The transition rules take into account the probability and proximity of contact between infected hosts and susceptible individuals. A transmittable and transition neighbourhoods are defined to identify the most probable individuals infected from a single host in a time step. RESULTS: The model with novel neighbourhood schemes and transition rules reproduce the macroscopic behaviour of infection and recovery observed in pandemics. The temporal evolution of the pandemic trajectory is sensitive to lattice size, range, latent and recovery periods but has constraints in capturing the changes in the infectious period. A study of lockdown and migration scenarios shows strict social isolation is crucial in controlling the pandemic. The simulations also indicate that earlier vaccination with a higher capacity and rate is essential to mitigate the pandemic. A comparison of simulated and actual data shows a good match. CONCLUSIONS: The study concludes that social isolation during movement and interaction of people can limit the spread of new infections. Vaccinating a large proportion of the population reduces new cases in subsequent waves of the pandemic. The model and algorithm with real-world data as input can quickly forecast the trajectory of the pandemic, for effective response in cluster containment.

Transcriptional subtyping and CD8 immunohistochemistry identifies poor prognosis stage II/III colorectal cancer patients who benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

PURPOSE: Transcriptomic profiling of colorectal cancer (CRC) has led to identification of four consensus molecular subtypes (CMS1-4), which have prognostic value in stage II/III disease. More recently, the Colorectal Cancer Intrinsic Subtypes (CRIS) classification system has helped to define the biology specific to the epithelial component of colorectal tumors. However, the clinical value of these classifications in predicting response to standard-of-care adjuvant chemotherapy remains unknown. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Using samples from 4 European sites, we assembled a novel stage II/III CRC patient cohort and performed transcriptomic profiling on 156 samples, targeted sequencing and generated a tissue microarray to enable integrated "multi-omics" analyses. We also accessed data from 2 published stage II/III CRC patient cohorts: GSE39582 and GSE14333 (479 and 185 samples respectively). RESULTS: The epithelial-rich CMS2 subtype of CRC benefitted significantly from adjuvant chemotherapy treatment in both stage II and III disease (p=0.02 and p<0.0001 respectively), while the CMS3 subtype significantly benefitted in stage III only (p=0.00073). Following CRIS sub-stratification of CMS2, we observed that only the CRIS-C subtype significantly benefitted from adjuvant chemotherapy in stage II and III disease (p=0.0081 and p<0.0001 respectively), while CRIS-D significantly benefitted in stage III only (p=0.0034). We also observed that CRIS-C patients with low levels of CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes were most at risk of relapse in both stage II and III disease (p=0.0031). CONCLUSION: Patient stratification using a combination of transcriptional subtyping and CD8 immunohistochemistry analyses is capable of identifying poor prognostic stage II/III patients who benefit from adjuvant standard-of-care chemotherapy. These findings are particularly relevant for stage II disease, where the overall benefit of adjuvant chemotherapy is marginal.

Proteomic profiling of rectal cancer reveals acid ceramidase is implicated in radiation response.

BACKGROUND: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) is used in locally advanced rectal cancer when tumours threaten the circumferential resection margin, with varying response to treatment. This experimental study aimed to identify significantly differentially expressed proteins between patients responding and not responding to CRT, and to validate any proteins of interest. METHODS: Mass spectrometry (with isobaric tagging for relative quantification) analysis of rectal cancers pre- and post-CRT, and at resection. Validation of proteins of interest was performed by assessing tissue microarray (TMA) immunohistochemistry expression in a further 111 patients with rectal cancer. RESULTS: Proteomic data are available via ProteomeXchange with identifier PXD008436. Reduced abundance of contributing peptide ions for acid ceramidase (AC) (log fold change -1.526, p = 1.17E-02) was observed in CRT responders. Differential expression of AC was confirmed upon analysis of the TMAs. Cancer site expression of AC in stromal cells from post-CRT resection specimens was observed to be relatively low in pathological complete response (p = 0.003), and relatively high with no response to CRT (p = 0.017). CONCLUSION: AC may be implicated in the response of rectal cancer to CRT. We propose its further assessment as a novel potential biomarker and therapeutic target. SIGNIFICANCE: There is a need for biomarkers to guide the use of chemoradiotherapy in rectal cancer, as none are in routine clinical use. We have determined acid ceramidase may have a role in radiation response, based on novel proteomic profiling and validation in a wider dataset using tissue microarrays. The ability to predict or improve response would positively select those patients who will derive benefit, prevent delays in the local and systemic management of disease in non-responders, and reduce morbidity associated with chemoradiotherapy.

Exome sequencing of synchronously resected primary colorectal tumours and colorectal liver metastases to inform oncosurgical management.

BACKGROUND: Next generation sequencing technology has facilitated mapping of the colorectal cancer genotype and furthered our understanding of metastogenesis. The aim of this study was to investigate for conserved and different mutations in the exomes of synchronously resected primary colorectal tumour and liver metastases. This information could potentially be utilised to guide the treatment of advanced disease with the help of biological information from the primary tumour. METHODS: We performed exome sequencing of synchronously resected primary colorectal cancer and colorectal liver metastases as well as normal colonic mucosa and liver parenchyma, from four patients who had received neo-adjuvant chemotherapy, at a depth of 50X using the Ion Proton platform. Raw data was mapped to the reference genome prior to variant calling, annotation and downstream analysis. RESULTS: Exome sequencing identified 585 non-synonymous missense single nucleotide variants (SNVs), of which 215 (36.8%) were unique to the primary tumour, 226 (38.6%) unique to the metastasis and 81 (13.8%) present in patient matched pairs. SNVs identified in the ErbB pathway appear to be concordant between primary and metastatic tumours. CONCLUSION: Only 13.8% of the metastatic exome can be predicted by the genotype of the primary tumour. We have demonstrated concordance of a number of SNVs in the ErbB pathway, which may inform selection of therapeutic agents in advanced colorectal cancer.

Identification of RBCK1 as a novel regulator of FKBPL: implications for tumor growth and response to tamoxifen.

FKBPL has been implicated in processes associated with cancer, including regulation of tumor growth and angiogenesis with high levels of FKBPL prognosticating for improved patient survival. Understanding how FKBPL levels are controlled within the cell is therefore critical. We have identified a novel role for RBCK1 as an FKBPL-interacting protein, which regulates FKBPL stability at the post-translational level via ubiquitination. Both RBCK1 and FKBPL are upregulated by 17-ß-estradiol and interact within heat shock protein 90 chaperone complexes, together with estrogen receptor-α (ERα). Furthermore, FKBPL and RBCK1 associate with ERα at the promoter of the estrogen responsive gene, pS2, and regulate pS2 levels. MCF-7 clones stably overexpressing RBCK1 were shown to have reduced proliferation and increased levels of FKBPL and p21. Furthermore, these clones were resistant to tamoxifen therapy, suggesting that RBCK1 could be a predictive marker of response to endocrine therapy. RBCK1 knockdown using targeted small interfering RNA resulted in increased proliferation and increased sensitivity to tamoxifen treatment. Moreover, in support of our in vitro data, analysis of mRNA microarray data sets demonstrated that high levels of FKBPL and RBCK1 correlated with increased patient survival, whereas high RBCK1 predicted for a poor response to tamoxifen. Our findings support a role for RBCK1 in the regulation of FKBPL with important implications for estrogen receptor signaling, cell proliferation and response to endocrine therapy.

Estrogen receptor ß activation impairs mitochondrial oxidative metabolism and affects malignant mesothelioma cell growth in vitro and in vivo.

Estrogen receptor (ER)-ß has been shown to possess a tumor suppressive effect, and is a potential target for cancer therapy. Using gene-expression meta-analysis of human malignant pleural mesothelioma, we identified an ESR2 (ERß coding gene) signature. High ESR2 expression was strongly associated with low succinate dehydrogenase B (SDHB) (which encodes a mitochondrial respiratory chain complex II subunit) expression. We demonstrate that SDHB loss induced ESR2 expression, and that activated ERß, by over-expression or by selective agonist stimulation, negatively affected oxidative phosphorylation compromising mitochondrial complex II and IV activity. This resulted in reduced mitochondrial ATP production, increased glycolysis dependence and impaired cell proliferation. The observed in vitro effects were phenocopied in vivo using a selective ERß agonist in a mesothelioma mouse model. On the whole, our data highlight an unforeseen interaction between ERß-mediated tumor suppression and energy metabolism that may be exploited to improve on the therapy for clinical management of malignant mesothelioma.

The epigenetic landscape of oral squamous cell carcinoma.

BACKGROUND: There is relatively little methylation array data available specifically for oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). This study aims to compare the DNA methylome across a large cohort of tumour/normal pairs. METHODS: DNA was extracted from 44 OSCCs and paired normal mucosa. DNA methylation analysis employed the Illumina GoldenGate high-throughput array comprising 1505 CpG loci selected from 807 epigenetically regulated genes. This data was correlated with extracapsular spread (ECS), human papilloma virus (HPV) status, recurrence and 5-year survival. RESULTS: Differential methylation levels of a number of genes distinguished the tumour tissue sample from the matched normal. Putative methylation signatures for ECS and recurrence were identified. The concept of concordant methylation or CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) in OSCC is supported by our data, with an association between 'CIMP-high' and worse prognosis. Epigenetic deregulation of NOTCH4 signalling in OSCC was also observed, as part of a possible methylation signature for recurrence, with parallels to recently discovered NOTCH mutations in HNSCC. Differences in methylation in HPV-driven cases were seen, but are less significant than that has been recently proposed in other series. CONCLUSION: Although OSCC seems as much an 'epigenetic' as a genetic disease, the translational potential of cancer epigenetics has yet to be fully exploited. This data points to the application of epigenetic biomarkers and targets available to further the development of therapy in OSCC.

Molecular dynamics studies of trinucleotide repeat DNA involved in neurodegenerative disorders.

Expansion of trinucleotide repeat DNA of the classes CAG-CTG, CGG-CCG and GAA-TTC are found to be associated with several neurodegenerative disorders. Different mechanisms have been attributed to the expansion of triplets, mainly involving the formation of alternate secondary structures by such repeats. This paper reports the molecular dynamics simulation of triplet repeat DNA sequences to study the basic structural features of DNA that are responsible for the formation of structures such as hairpins and slip-strand DNA leading to expansion. All the triplet repeat sequences studied were found to be more flexible compared to the control sequence unassociated with disease. Moreover, flexibility was found to be in the order CAG-CTG > CGG-CCG approximately GAA-TTC, the highly flexible CAG-CTG repeat being the most common cause of neurodegenerative disorders. In another simulation, a single G-C to T-A mutation at the 9th position of the CAG-CTG repeat exhibited a reduction in bending compared to the pure 15-mer CAG-CTG repeat. EPM1 dodecamer repeat associated with the pathogenesis of progressive myoclonus epilepsy was also simulated and showed flexible nature suggesting a similar expansion mechanism.