Computable phenotype for diagnostic error: developing the data schema for application of symptom-disease pair analysis of diagnostic error (SPADE).

OBJECTIVES: Diagnostic errors are the leading cause of preventable harm in clinical practice. Implementable tools to quantify and target this problem are needed. To address this gap, we aimed to generalize the Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) framework by developing its computable phenotype and then demonstrated how that schema could be applied in multiple clinical contexts. METHODS: We created an information model for the SPADE processes, then mapped data fields from electronic health records (EHR) and claims data in use to that model to create the SPADE information model (intention) and the SPADE computable phenotype (extension). Later we validated the computable phenotype and tested it in four case studies in three different health systems to demonstrate its utility. RESULTS: We mapped and tested the SPADE computable phenotype in three different sites using four different case studies. We showed that data fields to compute an SPADE base measure are fully available in the EHR Data Warehouse for extraction and can operationalize the SPADE framework from provider and/or insurer perspective, and they could be implemented on numerous health systems for future work in monitor misdiagnosis-related harms. CONCLUSIONS: Data for the SPADE base measure is readily available in EHR and administrative claims. The method of data extraction is potentially universally applicable, and the data extracted is conveniently available within a network system. Further study is needed to validate the computable phenotype across different settings with different data infrastructures.

Trajectory of Cognitive Function After Incident Heart Failure.

Background: The size/magnitude of cognitive changes after incident heart failure (HF) are unclear. We assessed whether incident HF is associated with changes in cognitive function after accounting for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and known determinants of cognition. Methods: This pooled cohort study included adults without HF, stroke, or dementia from six US population-based cohort studies from 1971-2019: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Northern Manhattan Study. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition at the time of HF (change in the intercept) and the rate of cognitive change over the years after HF (change in the slope), controlling for pre-HF cognitive trajectories and participant factors. Change in global cognition was the primary outcome. Change in executive function and memory were secondary outcomes. Cognitive outcomes were standardized to a t-score metric (mean [SD], 50 [10]); a 1-point difference represented a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Results: The study included 29,614 adults (mean [SD] age was 61.1 [10.5] years, 55% female, 70.3% White, 22.2% Black 7.5% Hispanic). During a median follow-up of 6.6 (Q1-Q3: 5-19.8) years, 1,407 (4.7%) adults developed incident HF. Incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition (-1.08 points; 95% CI -1.36, -0.80) and executive function (-0.65 points; 95% CI -0.96, -0.34) but not memory (-0.51 points; 95% CI -1.37, 0.35) at the time of the event. Greater acute decreases in global cognition after HF were seen in those with older age, female sex and White race. Individuals with incident HF, compared to HF-free individuals, demonstrated faster declines in global cognition (-0.15 points per year; 95% CI, -0.21, -0.09) and executive function (-0.16 points per year; 95% CI -0.23, -0.09) but not memory ( -0.11 points per year; 95% CI -0.26, 0.04) compared with pre-HF slopes. Conclusions: In this pooled cohort study, incident HF was associated with an acute decrease in global cognition and executive function at the time of the event and faster declines in global cognition and executive function over the following years.

Sex Differences in the Role of Multimorbidity on Poststroke Disability: The Taiwan Stroke Registry.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Multimorbidity is common in patients who experience stroke. Less is known about the effect of specific multimorbidity patterns on long-term disability in patients with stroke. Furthermore, given the increased poststroke disability frequently seen in female vs male patients, it is unknown whether multimorbidity has a similar association with disability in both sexes. We assessed whether specific multimorbidity clusters were associated with greater long-term poststroke disability burden overall and by sex. METHODS: In the Taiwan Stroke Registry, an ongoing nationwide prospective registry, patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were enrolled; this analysis is restricted to those individuals surviving to at least 6 months poststroke. Using a hierarchical clustering approach, clusters of prestroke multimorbidity were generated based on 16 risk factors; the algorithm identified 5 distinct clusters. The association between clusters and 12-month poststroke disability, defined using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), was determined using logistic regression models, with additional models stratified by sex. The longitudinal association between multimorbidity and functional status change was assessed using mixed-effects models. RESULTS: Nine-thousand eight hundred eighteen patients with first-ever ischemic stroke were included. The cluster with no risk factors was the reference, "healthier" risk group (N = 1,373). Patients with a cluster profile of diabetes, peripheral artery disease (PAD), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (N = 1882) had significantly greater disability (mRS ≥ 3) at 1 month (OR [95% CI] = 1.36 [1.13-1.63]), 3 months (OR [95% CI] = 1.27 [1.04-1.55]), and 6 months (OR [95% CI] = 1.30 [1.06-1.59]) but not at 12 months (OR [95% CI] = 1.16 [0.95-1.42]) than patients with a healthier risk factor profile. In the sex-stratified analysis, the associations with this risk cluster remained consistent in male patients (OR [95% CI] = 1.42 [1.06-1.89]) at 12 months, who also had a higher comorbidity burden, but not in female patients (OR [95% CI] = 0.95 [0.71-1.26]), who had higher proportions of severe strokes and severe disability (p-interaction = 0.04). DISCUSSION: Taiwanese patients with multimorbidity, specifically the concurrent presence of diabetes, PAD, and CKD, had higher odds of a worse functional outcome in the first 6 months poststroke. Clusters of multimorbidity may be less informative for long-term disability in female patients. Further studies should evaluate other mechanisms for worse disability in female patients poststroke.

Stroke Subtype and Risk of Subsequent Hospitalization: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Risk of readmission after stroke differs by stroke (sub)type and etiology, with higher risks reported for hemorrhagic stroke and cardioembolic stroke. We examined the risk and cause of first readmission by stroke subtype over the years post incident stroke. METHODS: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants (n = 1,412) with first-ever stroke were followed up for all-cause readmission after incident stroke. Risk of first readmission was examined by stroke subtypes (cardioembolic, thrombotic/lacunar, and hemorrhagic [intracerebral and subarachnoid]) using Cox and Fine-Gray proportional hazards models, adjusting for sociodemographic and cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Among 1,412 participants (mean [SD] age 72.4 [9.3] years, 52.1% women, 35.3% Black), 1,143 hospitalizations occurred over 41,849 person-months. Overall, 81% of participants were hospitalized over a maximum of 26.6 years of follow-up (83% of participants with thrombotic/lacunar stroke, 77% of participants with cardioembolic stroke, and 78% of participants with hemorrhagic stroke). Primary cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diagnoses were reported for half of readmissions. Over the entire follow-up period, compared with cardioembolic stroke, readmission risk was lower for thrombotic/lacunar stroke (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% CI 0.71-0.95) and hemorrhagic stroke (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.58-0.93) in adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. By contrast, there was no statistically significant difference among subtypes when adjusting for atrial fibrillation and competing risk of death. Compared with cardioembolic stroke, thrombotic/lacunar stroke was associated with lower readmission risk within 1 month (HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.46-0.93) and during 1 month-1 year (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.62-0.97), and hemorrhagic stroke was associated with lower risk during 1 month-1 year (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.41-0.87). There was no significant difference between subtypes in readmission risk during later periods. DISCUSSION: Over 26 years of follow-up, 81% of stroke participants experienced a readmission. Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diagnoses at readmission were most common across stroke subtypes. Though cardioembolic stroke has previously been reported to confer higher risk of readmission, in this study, the readmission risk was not statistically significantly different between stroke subtypes or over different periods when accounting for the competing risk of death.

2024 Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics: A Report of US and Global Data From the American Heart Association.

BACKGROUND: The American Heart Association (AHA), in conjunction with the National Institutes of Health, annually reports the most up-to-date statistics related to heart disease, stroke, and cardiovascular risk factors, including core health behaviors (smoking, physical activity, nutrition, sleep, and obesity) and health factors (cholesterol, blood pressure, glucose control, and metabolic syndrome) that contribute to cardiovascular health. The AHA Heart Disease and Stroke Statistical Update presents the latest data on a range of major clinical heart and circulatory disease conditions (including stroke, brain health, complications of pregnancy, kidney disease, congenital heart disease, rhythm disorders, sudden cardiac arrest, subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, valvular disease, venous thromboembolism, and peripheral artery disease) and the associated outcomes (including quality of care, procedures, and economic costs). METHODS: The AHA, through its Epidemiology and Prevention Statistics Committee, continuously monitors and evaluates sources of data on heart disease and stroke in the United States and globally to provide the most current information available in the annual Statistical Update with review of published literature through the year before writing. The 2024 AHA Statistical Update is the product of a full year's worth of effort in 2023 by dedicated volunteer clinicians and scientists, committed government professionals, and AHA staff members. The AHA strives to further understand and help heal health problems inflicted by structural racism, a public health crisis that can significantly damage physical and mental health and perpetuate disparities in access to health care, education, income, housing, and several other factors vital to healthy lives. This year's edition includes additional global data, as well as data on the monitoring and benefits of cardiovascular health in the population, with an enhanced focus on health equity across several key domains. RESULTS: Each of the chapters in the Statistical Update focuses on a different topic related to heart disease and stroke statistics. CONCLUSIONS: The Statistical Update represents a critical resource for the lay public, policymakers, media professionals, clinicians, health care administrators, researchers, health advocates, and others seeking the best available data on these factors and conditions.

Association of Atrial Fibrillation With Stroke and Dementia Accounting for Left Atrial Function and Size.

BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with higher risks of ischemic stroke (IS) and dementia. Whether alterations in left atrial (LA) function or size-atrial myopathy-confound these associations remains unknown. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study was to examine the association of prevalent and incident AF with ischemic stroke and dementia in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities) study, adjusting for LA function and size. METHODS: Participants at visit 5 (2011-2013) with echocardiographic LA function (reservoir, conduit, contractile strain, and emptying fraction) and size (maximal, minimal volume index) data, and without prevalent stroke or dementia were followed through 2019. For analysis, we used time-varying Cox regression. RESULTS: Among 5,458 participants (1,193 with AF, mean age of 76 years) in the stroke analysis and 5,461 participants (1,205 with AF, mean age of 75 years) in the dementia analysis, 209 participants developed ischemic stroke, and 773 developed dementia over 7.1 years (median). In a demographic and risk factor-adjusted model, AF was significantly associated with ischemic stroke (HR, 1.63; 95% CI: 1.11-2.37) and dementia (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.13-1.70). After additionally adjusting for LA reservoir strain, these associations were attenuated and no longer statistically significant (stroke [HR: 1.33, 95% CI: 0.88-2.00], dementia [HR: 1.15, 95% CI: 0.92-1.43]). Associations with ischemic stroke and dementia were also attenuated and not statistically significant after adjustment for LA contractile strain, emptying fraction, and minimal volume index. CONCLUSIONS: AF-ischemic stroke and AF-dementia associations were not statistically significant after adjusting for measures of atrial myopathy. This proof-of-concept analysis does not support AF as an independent risk factor for ischemic stroke and dementia.

Cerebral Microbleed Patterns and Cortical Amyloid-ß: The ARIC-PET Study.

BACKGROUND: Cerebral microbleeds (CMBs) are associated with cognitive decline, but their importance outside of cerebral amyloid angiopathy and the mechanisms of their impact on cognition are poorly understood. We evaluated the cross-sectional association between CMB patterns and cerebral Aß (amyloid-ß) deposition, by florbetapir positron emission tomography. METHODS: The longitudinal ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) recruited individuals from 4 US communities from 1987 to 1989. From 2012 to 2014, the ARIC-PET (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities - Positron Emission Tomography) ancillary recruited 322 nondemented ARIC participants who completed 3T brain magnetic resonance imaging with T2*GRE as part of ARIC visit 5 to undergo florbetapir positron emission tomography imaging. Magnetic resonance imaging images were read for CMBs and superficial siderosis; on positron emission tomography, global cortical standardized uptake value ratio >1.2 was considered a positive Aß scan. Multivariable logistic regression models evaluated CMB characteristics in association with Aß positivity. Effect modification by sex, race, APOE status, and cognition was evaluated. RESULTS: CMBs were present in 24% of ARIC-PET participants. No significant associations were found between CMBs and Aß positivity, but a pattern of isolated lobar CMBs or superficial siderosis was associated with over 4-fold higher odds of elevated Aß when compared with those with no CMBs (odds ratio, 4.72 [95% CI, 1.16-19.16]). A similar elevated risk was not observed in those with isolated subcortical or mixed subcortical and either lobar CMBs or superficial siderosis. Although no significant interactions were found, effect estimates for elevated Aß were nonsignificantly lower (P>0.10, odds ratio, 0.4-0.6) for a mixed CMB pattern, and odds ratios were nonsignificantly higher for lobar-only CMBs for 4 subgroups: women (versus men); Black participants (versus White participants), APOE ε4 noncarriers (versus carriers), and cognitively normal (versus mild cognitive impairment). CONCLUSIONS: In this community-based cohort of nondemented adults, lobar-only pattern of CMBs or superficial siderosis is most strongly associated with brain Aß, with no elevated risk for a mixed CMB pattern. Further studies are needed to understand differences in CMB patterns and their meaning across subgroups.

Association Between Ischemic Stroke Subtype and Stroke Severity: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Disability after stroke occurs across ischemic stroke subtypes, with a suggestion that embolic strokes are more devastating. Whether this difference is as a result of differences in comorbidities or differences in severity at the time of the stroke event is not known. The primary hypothesis was that participants with embolic stroke would have more severe stroke at the time of admission and a higher risk of mortality, compared with thrombotic stroke participants even with consideration of confounders over time, with a secondary hypothesis that this association would differ by race and sex. METHODS: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study participants with incident adjudicated ischemic stroke, stroke severity and mortality data, and complete covariates were included. Multinomial logistic regression models determined the association between stroke subtype (embolic vs thrombotic) and admission NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS) category (minor [≤5], mild [6-10], moderate [11-15], severe [16-20], and very severe [>20]) adjusted for covariates from visits most proximal to the stroke. Separate ordinal logistic models evaluated for interaction by race and sex. Adjusted Cox proportional hazard models estimated the association between stroke subtype and all-cause mortality (through December 31, 2019). RESULTS: Participants (N = 940) were mean age 71 years (SD = 9) at incident stroke, 51% female, and 38% Black. Using adjusted multinomial logistic regression, the risk of having a more severe stroke (reference NIHSS ≤5) was higher among embolic stroke vs thrombotic stroke patients, with a step-wise increase for embolic stroke patients when moving from mild (odds ratio [OR] 1.95, 95% CI 1.14-3.35) to very severe strokes (OR 4.95, 95% CI 2.34-10.48). After adjusting for atrial fibrillation, there was still a higher risk of having a worse NIHSS among embolic vs thrombotic strokes but with attenuation of effect (very severe stroke OR 3.91, 95% CI 1.76-8.67). Sex modified the association between stroke subtype and severity (embolic vs thrombotic stroke, p interaction = 0.03, per severity category, females OR 2.38, 95% CI 1.55-3.66; males OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.09-2.82). The risk of death (median follow-up 5 years, interquartile range 1-12) was also increased for embolic vs thrombotic stroke patients (hazard ratio 1.66, 95% CI 1.41-1.97). DISCUSSION: Embolic stroke was associated with greater stroke severity at the time of the event and a higher risk of death vs thrombotic stroke, even after careful adjustment for patient-level differences.

Improved cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with lower incident ischemic stroke risk: Henry Ford FIT project.

BACKGROUND: Change in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) modulates vascular disease risk; however, it's unclear if this adds further prognostic information, particularly for ischemic stroke. The objective of this analysis is to describe the association between the change in CRF over time and subsequent incident ischemic stroke. METHODS: This is a retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of 9,646 patients (age=55±11 years; 41% women; 25% black) who completed 2 clinically indicated exercise tests (> 12 months apart) and were free of any stroke at the time of test 2. CRF was expressed as metabolic-equivalents-of-task (METs). Incident ischemic stroke was identified using ICD codes. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) was determined for risk of ischemic stroke associated with change in CRF. RESULTS: Mean time between tests was 3.7 years (IQR, 2.2, 6.0). During a median of 5.0 years (IQR, 2.7, 7.6 y) of follow-up, there were 873 (9.1%) ischemic stroke events. Each 1 MET increase between tests was associated with a 9% lower ischemic stroke risk (aHR 0.91 [0.88-0.94]; n = 9.646). There was an interaction effect by baseline CRF category, but not for sex or race. A sensitivity analysis which removed those who experienced an incident diagnosis known to be associated with an increased risk of ischemic vascular disease, validated our primary findings (aHR 0.91 [0.88, 0.95]; n= 6,943). CONCLUSIONS: Improvement in CRF over time is independently and inversely associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke. Encouragement of regular exercise focused on improving CRF may reduce ischemic stroke risk.

Association Between Acute Myocardial Infarction and Cognition.

Importance: The magnitude of cognitive change after incident myocardial infarction (MI) is unclear. Objective: To assess whether incident MI is associated with changes in cognitive function after adjusting for pre-MI cognitive trajectories. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults without MI, dementia, or stroke and with complete covariates from the following US population-based cohort studies conducted from 1971 to 2019: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study, Cardiovascular Health Study, Framingham Offspring Study, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and Northern Manhattan Study. Data were analyzed from July 2021 to January 2022. Exposures: Incident MI. Main Outcomes and Measures: The main outcome was change in global cognition. Secondary outcomes were changes in memory and executive function. Outcomes were standardized as mean (SD) T scores of 50 (10); a 1-point difference represented a 0.1-SD difference in cognition. Linear mixed-effects models estimated changes in cognition at the time of MI (change in the intercept) and the rate of cognitive change over the years after MI (change in the slope), controlling for pre-MI cognitive trajectories and participant factors, with interaction terms for race and sex. Results: The study included 30 465 adults (mean [SD] age, 64 [10] years; 56% female), of whom 1033 had 1 or more MI event, and 29 432 did not have an MI event. Median follow-up was 6.4 years (IQR, 4.9-19.7 years). Overall, incident MI was not associated with an acute decrease in global cognition (-0.18 points; 95% CI, -0.52 to 0.17 points), executive function (-0.17 points; 95% CI, -0.53 to 0.18 points), or memory (0.62 points; 95% CI, -0.07 to 1.31 points). However, individuals with incident MI vs those without MI demonstrated faster declines in global cognition (-0.15 points per year; 95% CI, -0.21 to -0.10 points per year), memory (-0.13 points per year; 95% CI, -0.22 to -0.04 points per year), and executive function (-0.14 points per year; 95% CI, -0.20 to -0.08 points per year) over the years after MI compared with pre-MI slopes. The interaction analysis suggested that race and sex modified the degree of change in the decline in global cognition after MI (race × post-MI slope interaction term, P = .02; sex × post-MI slope interaction term, P = .04), with a smaller change in the decline over the years after MI in Black individuals than in White individuals (difference in slope change, 0.22 points per year; 95% CI, 0.04-0.40 points per year) and in females than in males (difference in slope change, 0.12 points per year; 95% CI, 0.01-0.23 points per year). Conclusions: This cohort study using pooled data from 6 cohort studies found that incident MI was not associated with a decrease in global cognition, memory, or executive function at the time of the event compared with no MI but was associated with faster declines in global cognition, memory, and executive function over time. These findings suggest that prevention of MI may be important for long-term brain health.

The Future of Ischemic Stroke Diagnosis and a Review of Underrecognized Ischemic Stroke Etiologies.

Accurate ischemic stroke etiologic determination and diagnosis form the foundation of excellent cerebrovascular care as from it stems initiation of the appropriate secondary prevention strategy as well as appropriate patient education regarding specific risk factors for that subtype. Recurrent stroke rates are highest among those patients who receive an incorrect initial stroke diagnosis. Patient distrust and patient reported depression are also higher. The cause of the ischemic stroke also informs predicted patient outcomes and the anticipated recovery trajectory. Finally, determining the accurate cause of the ischemic stroke provides the patient the opportunity to enroll in appropriate research studies studying mechanism, or targeting treatment approaches for that particular disease process. Advances in ischemic stroke research, imaging techniques, biomarkers, and the ability to rapidly perform genetic sequencing over the past decade have shown that classifying patients into large etiologic buckets may not always be appropriate and may represent one reason why some patients are labeled as cryptogenic, or for whom an underlying etiology is never found. Aside from the more traditional stroke mechanisms, there is new research emerging regarding clinical findings that are not normative, but the contributions to ischemic stroke are unclear. In this article, we first review the essential steps to accurate ischemic stroke etiologic classification and then transition to a discussion of embolic stroke of undetermined source (ESUS) and other new entities that have been postulated as causal in ischemic stroke (i.e., genetics and subclinical atherosclerosis). We also discuss the limitations that are inherent in the current ischemic stroke diagnostic algorithms and finally review the most recent studies regarding more uncommon diagnoses and the future of stroke diagnostics and classification.

Optimizing measurement of misdiagnosis-related harms using symptom-disease pair analysis of diagnostic error (SPADE): comparison groups to maximize SPADE validity.

Diagnostic errors in medicine represent a significant public health problem but continue to be challenging to measure accurately, reliably, and efficiently. The recently developed Symptom-Disease Pair Analysis of Diagnostic Error (SPADE) approach measures misdiagnosis related harms using electronic health records or administrative claims data. The approach is clinically valid, methodologically sound, statistically robust, and operationally viable without the requirement for manual chart review. This paper clarifies aspects of the SPADE analysis to assure that researchers apply this method to yield valid results with a particular emphasis on defining appropriate comparator groups and analytical strategies for balancing differences between these groups. We discuss four distinct types of comparators (intra-group and inter-group for both look-back and look-forward analyses), detailing the rationale for choosing one over the other and inferences that can be drawn from these comparative analyses. Our aim is that these additional analytical practices will improve the validity of SPADE and related approaches to quantify diagnostic error in medicine.

Left Atrial Mechanical Dysfunction and the Risk for Ischemic Stroke in People Without Prevalent Atrial Fibrillation or Stroke : A Prospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Atrial myopathy-characterized by changes in left atrial function and size-may precede and promote atrial fibrillation (AF) and cardiac thromboembolism. In people without prior AF or stroke, whether analysis of left atrial function and size can improve ischemic stroke prediction is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of echocardiographic left atrial function (reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain) and left atrial size (left atrial volume index) with ischemic stroke and determine whether these measures can improve the stroke prediction achieved by CHA2DS2-VASc score variables. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study. PARTICIPANTS: 4917 ARIC participants without prevalent stroke or AF. MEASUREMENTS: Ischemic stroke events (2011 to 2019) were adjudicated by physicians. Left atrial strain was measured using speckle-tracking echocardiography. RESULTS: Over 5 years, the cumulative incidences of ischemic stroke in the lowest quintiles of left atrial reservoir, conduit, and contractile strain were 2.99% (95% CI, 1.89% to 4.09%), 3.18% (CI, 2.14% to 4.22%), and 2.15% (CI, 1.09% to 3.21%), respectively, and that of severe left atrial enlargement was 1.99% (CI, 0.23% to 3.75%). On the basis of the Akaike information criterion, left atrial reservoir strain plus CHA2DS2-VASc variables was the best predictive model. With the addition of left atrial reservoir strain to CHA2DS2-VASc variables, 11.6% of the 112 participants with stroke after 5 years were reclassified to higher risk categories and 1.8% to lower risk categories. Among the 4805 participants who did not develop stroke, 12.2% were reclassified to lower and 12.7% to higher risk categories. Decision curve analysis showed a predicted net benefit of 1.34 per 1000 people at a 5-year risk threshold of 5%. LIMITATION: Underascertainment of subclinical AF. CONCLUSION: In people without prior AF or stroke, when added to CHA2DS2-VASc variables, left atrial reservoir strain improves stroke prediction and yields a predicted net benefit, as shown by decision curve analysis. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Normal left atrial diameter is associated with better performance on a cognitive screener among a cohort of ischemic stroke patients.

Background: Cardiac structure is an important determinant of ischemic stroke (IS) etiology; however, whether an association between cardiac structural markers and cognition post-IS exists is not yet established. The aim of this study is to examine the association between LAD and LVEF with cognitive performance among IS patients. Methods: IS patients admitted to the Johns Hopkins Hospital (2017-2019) underwent transthoracic echocardiography. IS was classified (TOAST) by a masked reviewer. Left atrial diameter (LAD) was evaluated as a non-linear continuous variable with one spline knot at 4 cm; left ventricle ejection fraction (LVEF) was dichotomized, then further evaluated as a non-linear continuous variable with spline knots at 50% and 70%. Patients were contacted by telephone on average 422 days post-stroke and administered the Six-Item Screener (SIS) to assess for dementia. SIS scores were dichotomized into low and high, imputing low scores for non-answerers. Multivariable logistic regression determined the association of SIS category with LAD or LVEF. A sensitivity analysis re-evaluated the association between SIS category and LAD, excluding participants with atrial fibrillation (AF). Results: Participants (N = 108) were on average 61 years old (range = 18-89 years), 55% male, and 63% Black. Among patients considered to have a normal LAD (≤ 4 cm), a 1 mm larger LAD was associated with 1.20 greater odds (95%CI = 1.05-1.38) of scoring in the high SIS category in the final adjustment model. This association remained significant when excluding participants with prevalent AF. There was no association between a 1 mm larger LAD and SIS category among patients with a LAD >4 cm in both the primary analysis and the sensitivity analysis. There was no association between LVEF and SIS category. Conclusions: In this prospective study, among ischemic stroke patients with a LAD within the normal range, a 1 mm increase in LAD was associated with higher scores on a telephone cognitive battery, without an association found among those with a LAD >4 cm.

Atrial cardiopathy is associated with cerebral microbleeds in ischemic stroke patients.

Objective: Cerebral microbleeds (CMB) are small accumulations of hemosiderin associated with cerebrovascular risk factors, but whether they are associated with atrial cardiopathy is not known. The goal of this study is to determine, among ischemic stroke patients, the association between study-defined atrial cardiopathy and CMB presence, location, and number. Methods: Ischemic stroke patients admitted to Johns Hopkins (2015-2019) with transthoracic echocardiography and electrocardiography were included. Cerebral microbleeds were defined as small, round hypo-intensities on T2* susceptibility weighted imaging or gradient recalled echo magnetic resonance imaging sequences. Atrial cardiopathy was defined as the presence of ≥1: left atrium diameter >4.0 cm (males) or >3.8 cm (females), PR interval >200 ms, or N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide >250 pg/ml. Binary/Ordinal logistic regression models were used to determine the association between atrial cardiopathy, and cerebral microbleed presence, location (lobar/deep), or number, each, adjusted for potential confounders. Results: Patients (N = 120) were mean age 60 years (range 22-98), 46% female, 62% black, and 39% were on anti-thrombotic medication at time of admission. 39 (32%) participants had ≥1 cerebral microbleeds. Forty-six (38%) patients had atrial cardiopathy. Atrial cardiopathy was associated with higher odds of having cerebral microbleeds (OR 2.50, 95% CI 1.02-6.15). Atrial cardiopathy was associated with lobar cerebral microbleeds (OR 2.33, 95% CI 1.01-5.37) in univariate analysis but not with deep cerebral microbleeds (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.13-1.54), with neither association significant after adjustment. There was no difference in risk of having 1 vs. no cerebral microbleeds (RRR 2.51, 95% CI 0.75-8.37) and >1 cerebral microbleed vs none (RRR 2.57, 95% CI 0.87-7.60) among those with atrial cardiopathy. Conclusions: Atrial cardiopathy is associated with the presence, but not burden, of cerebral microbleeds in ischemic stroke patients. We cautiously suggest that atrial cardiopathy, either directly or through shared vascular risk, may contribute to the presence of CMB.

Risk of Dementia Associated With Atrial Cardiopathy: The ARIC Study.

Background The contribution of atrial cardiopathy to dementia risk is uncharacterized. We aimed to evaluate the association of atrial cardiopathy with incident dementia and potential mediation by atrial fibrillation (AF) and stroke. Methods and Results We conducted a prospective cohort analysis of participants in the ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study attending visit 5 (2011-2013). We used Cox regression to determine the association between atrial cardiopathy and risk of dementia. Structural equation modeling methods were used to determine potential mediation by AF and/or stroke. Atrial cardiopathy was defined if ≥1 of the following at visit 5: P-wave terminal force >5000 mV·ms in ECG lead V1, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide) >250 pg/mL or left atrial volume index ≥34 mL/m2 by transthoracic echocardiography. We repeated our analysis necessitating ≥2 markers to define atrial cardiopathy. The prevalence of atrial cardiopathy was 34% in the 5078 participants (mean age 75 years, 59% female, 21% Black adults), with 763 participants developing dementia. Atrial cardiopathy was significantly associated with dementia (adjusted HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.16-1.58]), with strengthening of the effect estimate when necessitating ≥2 biomarkers (adjusted HR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.25-1.89]). There was an increased risk of dementia among those with atrial cardiopathy when excluding those with AF (adjusted HR, 1.31 [95% CI, 1.12-1.55]) or stroke (adjusted HR, 1.28 [95% CI, 1.09-1.52]). The proportion of the effect mediated by AF was 4% (P=0.005), and 9% was mediated by stroke (P=0.048). Conclusions Atrial cardiopathy was significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia, with only a small percent mediation of the effect by AF or stroke.

Association of Vascular Properties With the Brain White Matter Hyperintensity in Middle-Aged Population.

Background The periventricular white matter is more sensitive to the systemic hemodynamic alterations than the deep white matter because of differences in its vascular structure and systemic circulation relationship. We hypothesize that periventricular white matter hyperintensity (PVWMH) volume shows greater association than deep white matter hyperintensity (DWMH) volume with vascular properties (VPs) reflecting arterial stiffness and cardiovascular remodeling, indicators of the systemic circulation. Methods and Results A total of 426 participants (age, 59.0±6.1 years; 57.5% women; and 39.7% Black race) in the Genetic Study of Atherosclerosis Risk who were aged ≥50 years and had brain magnetic resonance imaging were studied. VPs included pulse pressure, hypertensive response to exercise, diastolic brachial artery diameter, diastolic common carotid artery diameter, common carotid artery distensibility coefficient, and left ventricular function. The relative associations of VPs with PVWMH and DWMH as multiple measures within the same individual were determined using multilevel linear models. We also determined if age modified the differences in VPs associations with PVWMH and DWMH. Our findings indicated that, within the same subject, PVWMH volume had greater association than DWMH volume with pulse pressure (P=0.002), hypertensive response to exercise (P=0.04), diastolic brachial artery diameter (P=0.012), and diastolic common carotid artery diameter (P=0.04), independent of age and cardiovascular risk factors. The differences of PVWMH versus DWMH associations with VPs did not differ at any age threshold. Conclusions We show, for the first time, that PVWMH has greater association than DWMH, independent of age, with vascular measurements of arterial stiffness and cardiovascular remodeling suggesting that changes in the systemic circulation affect the PVWMH and DWMH differently.

Left Atrial Remodeling and Stroke in Patients With Sinus Rhythm and Normal Ejection Fraction: ARIC-NCS.

Background Age-related left atrial (LA) structural and functional abnormalities may be related to subclinical cerebral infarcts (SCIs) and stroke. We evaluated the association of 3-dimensional echocardiographic LA contractility parameters with SCIs and stroke across the spectrum of tertiles of age increment in elderly patients with sinus rhythm, normal ejection fraction, and no history of atrial fibrillation. Methods and Results We enrolled 407 participants (mean age, 76±8 years; 40% men) from ARIC-NCS (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Neurocognitive Study) undergoing a brain magnetic resonance imaging and 3-dimensional echocardiographic examinations in 2011 to 2013. The sample was analyzed among age tertiles and subgroups: no cerebral magnetic resonance imaging-detectable infarcts (n=315), magnetic resonance imaging-diagnosed SCIs (n=58), and clinically diagnosed stroke (n=34). The frequency of SCIs significantly increased over age tertiles (P trend 0.023). LA global longitudinal strain-a 3-dimensional echocardiographic index of LA reservoir function-and E/e' divided by LA global longitudinal strain-an index of LA stiffness-worsened across age tertiles (P trend 0.014 and 0.001, respectively), and only in the categories of SCIs (P trend <0.001 and 0.045, respectively) and stroke (P trend 0.001 and 0.011, respectively). LA global longitudinal strain was negatively associated with increased odds of SCIs (P=0.036, P=0.008, and P=0.001, respectively) and strokes (P=0.043, P=0.015, and P=0.001, respectively) over age tertiles, with a significant interaction between age tertiles (interaction P=0.043 and P=0.010, respectively). E/e' divided by LA global longitudinal strain was positively associated with the presence of SCIs (P=0.037, P=0.007, and P=0.001, respectively) and strokes (P=0.045, P=0.007, and P=0.003, respectively) over age tertiles, with a significant interaction only for SCIs (interaction P=0.040) and not for clinical stroke. Conclusions In a large cohort study of elderly patients, among participants with sinus rhythm, normal ejection fraction, and no history of atrial fibrillation, measures of worse age-related LA reservoir function and stiffness are associated with higher odds of SCIs and stroke.