Gridded livestock density database and spatial trends for Kazakhstan.

Livestock rearing is a major source of livelihood for food and income in dryland Asia. Increasing livestock density (LSKD) affects ecosystem structure and function, amplifies the effects of climate change, and facilitates disease transmission. Significant knowledge and data gaps regarding their density, spatial distribution, and changes over time exist but have not been explored beyond the county level. This is especially true regarding the unavailability of high-resolution gridded livestock data. Hence, we developed a gridded LSKD database of horses and small ruminants (i.e., sheep & goats) at high-resolution (1 km) for Kazakhstan (KZ) from 2000-2019 using vegetation proxies, climatic, socioeconomic, topographic, and proximity forcing variables through a random forest (RF) regression modeling. We found high-density livestock hotspots in the south-central and southeastern regions, whereas medium-density clusters in the northern and northwestern regions of KZ. Interestingly, population density, proximity to settlements, nighttime lights, and temperature contributed to the efficient downscaling of district-level censuses to gridded estimates. This database will benefit stakeholders, the research community, land managers, and policymakers at regional and national levels.

Global water use efficiency saturation due to increased vapor pressure deficit.

The ratio of carbon assimilation to water evapotranspiration (ET) of an ecosystem, referred to as ecosystem water use efficiency (WUEeco), is widely expected to increase because of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Ca). However, little is known about the interactive effects of rising Ca and climate change on WUEeco. On the basis of upscaled estimates from machine learning methods and global FLUXNET observations, we show that global WUEeco has not risen since 2001 because of the asymmetric effects of an increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which depressed photosynthesis and enhanced ET. An undiminished ET trend indicates that rising temperature and VPD may play a more important role in regulating ET than declining stomatal conductance. Projected increases in VPD are predicted to affect the future coupling of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles.

Albedo changes caused by future urbanization contribute to global warming.

The replacement of natural lands with urban structures has multiple environmental consequences, yet little is known about the magnitude and extent of albedo-induced warming contributions from urbanization at the global scale in the past and future. Here, we apply an empirical approach to quantify the climate effects of past urbanization and future urbanization projected under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find an albedo-induced warming effect of urbanization for both the past and the projected futures under three illustrative scenarios. The albedo decease from urbanization in 2018 relative to 2001 has yielded a 100-year average annual global warming of 0.00014 [0.00008, 0.00021] °C. Without proper mitigation, future urbanization in 2050 relative to 2018 and that in 2100 relative to 2018 under the intermediate emission scenario (SSP2-4.5) would yield a 100-year average warming effect of 0.00107 [0.00057,0.00179] °C and 0.00152 [0.00078,0.00259] °C, respectively, through altering the Earth's albedo.

Optimal ranges of social-environmental drivers and their impacts on vegetation dynamics in Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan is part of the Eurasian Steppes, the world's largest contiguous grassland system. Kazakh grassland systems are largely understudied despite being historically important for agropastoral practices. These grasslands are considered vulnerable to anthropogenic activities and climatic variability. Few studies have examined vegetation dynamics in Central Asia owing to the complex impacts of moisture, climatic and anthropogenic forcings. A comprehensive analysis of spatiotemporal changes of vegetation and its driving factors will help elucidate the causes of grassland degradation. Here, we investigated the individual and pairwise interactive influences of various social-environmental system (SES) drivers on greenness dynamics in Kazakhstan. We sought to examine whether there is a relationship between peak season greenness and its drivers - spring drought, preceding winter freeze-thaw cycles, percent snow cover and snow depth - for Kazakhstan during 2000-2016. As hypothesized, snow depth and spring drought accounted for 60 % and 52 % of the variance in the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in Kazakhstan. The freeze-thaw process accounted for 50 % of NDVI variance across the country. In addition, continuous thawing during the winter increased vegetation greenness. We also found that moisture and topographic factors impacted NDVI more significantly than socioeconomic factors. However, the impacts of socioeconomic drivers on vegetation growth were amplified when they interacted with environmental drivers. Terrain slope and soil moisture had the highest q-values or power of determinant, accounting for ~70 % of the variance in NDVI across the country. Socioeconomic drivers, such as crop production (59 %), population density (48 %), and livestock density (26 %), had significant impacts on vegetation dynamics in Kazakhstan. We found that most of the pairwise interactive influences of the drivers exhibited bi-factor enhancement, and the interaction between soil moisture and elevation was the largest (q = 0.92). Our study revealed the optimal ranges and tipping points of SES drivers and quantified the impacts of various driving factors on NDVI. These findings can help us identify the factors causing grassland degradation and provide a scientific basis for ecological protection in semiarid regions.

Grassland productivity and carbon sequestration in Mongolian grasslands: The underlying mechanisms and nomadic implications.

BACKGROUND: Quantifying carbon (C) dioxide exchanges between ecosystems and the atmosphere and the underlying mechanism of biophysical regulations under similar environmental conditions is critical for an accurate understanding of C budgets and ecosystem functions. METHODS: For the first time, a cluster of four eddy covariance towers were set up to answer how C fluxes shift among four dominant ecosystems in Mongolia - meadow steppe (MDW), typical steppe (TPL), dry typical steppe (DRT) and shrubland (SHB) during two growing seasons (2014 and 2015). RESULTS: Large variations were observed for the annual net ecosystem exchange (NEE) from 59 to 193gCm-2, though all four sites acted as a C source. During the two growing seasons, MDW acted as a C sink, TPL and DRT were C neutral, while SHB acted as a C source. MDW to SHB and TPL conversions resulted in a 2.6- and 2.2-fold increase in C release, respectively, whereas the TPL to SHB conversion resulted in a 1.1-fold increase at the annual scale. C assimilation was higher at MDW than those at the other three ecosystems due to its greater C assimilation ability and longer C assimilation times during the day and growing period. On the other hand, C release was highest at SHB due to significantly lower photosynthetic production and relatively higher ecosystem respiration (ER). A stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that the seasonal variations in NEE, ER and gross ecosystem production (GEP) were controlled by air temperature at MDW, while they were controlled mainly by soil moisture at TPL, DRT and SHB. When air temperature increased, the NEE at MDW and TPL changed more dramatically than at DRT and SHB, suggesting not only a stronger C release ability but also a higher temperature sensitivity at MDW and TPL. CONCLUSIONS: The ongoing and predicted global changes in Mongolia likely impact the C exchange at MDW and TPL more than at DRT and SHB in Mongolia. Our results suggest that, with increasing drought and vegetation type succession, a clear trend for greater CO2 emissions may result in further global warming in the future. This study implies that diverse grassland ecosystems will respond differently to climate change in the future and can be seen as nature-based solutions (NBS) supporting climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Grazing effects on surface energy fluxes in a desert steppe on the Mongolian Plateau.

Quantifying the surface energy fluxes of grazed and ungrazed steppes is essential to understand the roles of grasslands in local and global climate and in land use change. We used paired eddy-covariance towers to investigate the effects of grazing on energy balance (EB) components: net radiation (Rn ), latent heat (LE), sensible heat (H), and soil heat (G) fluxes on adjacent grazed and ungrazed areas in a desert steppe of the Mongolian Plateau for a two-year period (2010-2012). Near 95% of Rn was partitioned as LE and H, whereas the contributions of G and other components of the EB were 5% at an annual scale. H dominated the energy partitioning and shared ~50% of Rn . When comparing the grazed and the ungrazed desert steppe, there was remarkably lower Rn and a lower H, but higher G at the grazed site than at the ungrazed site. Both reduced available energy (Rn - G) and H indicated a "cooling effect" feedback onto the local climate through grazing. Grazing reduced the dry year LE but enhanced the wet year LE. Energy partitioning of LE/Rn was positively correlated with the canopy conductivity, leaf area index, and soil moisture. H/Rn was positively correlated with the vapor pressure deficit but negatively correlated with the soil moisture. Boosted regression tree results showed that LE/Rn was dominated by soil moisture in both years and at both sites, while grazing shifted the H/Rn domination from temperature to soil moisture in the wet year. Grazing not only caused an LE shift between the dry and the wet year, but also triggered a decrease in the H/Rn because of changes in vegetation and soil properties, indicating that the ungrazed area had a greater resistance while the grazed area had a greater sensitivity of EB components to the changing climate.

Urbanization and environmental change during the economic transition on the Mongolian Plateau: Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar.

Driven by drastic socioeconomic changes in China and Mongolia, urbanization has become one of the most significant driving forces in the transformation of the Mongolian Plateau in the past 30 years. Using Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar as case studies, we developed a holistic approach to examine the socioeconomic and natural driving forces for urbanization and to investigate the impact on the urban environment. We used a multidisciplinary approach and relied on a variety of data sources to assess the changes of the landscape and environment of the two cities. We detected a rapid urbanization in Hohhot and Ulaanbaatar, both in terms of urban population growth and urban land expansion, from 1990 to 2010, with a much faster speed in 2000-2010. The local geo-physical conditions have constrained the spatial direction of expansion. Ulaanbaatar lagged behind Hohhot for about a decade when measured by indicators of urban population and urban land. Both cities have a degraded urban environment and a growing air pollution epidemic. While Hohhot had worse air pollution than Ulaanbaatar in the early 2000s, the gap between the two cities became smaller after 2010. The research presented here highlights the following as key determinants for urbanization and environmental change: (1) the co-evolution of urbanization, economic development, and environmental change; (2) the urbanization of transitional economies driven by the change of the economic structure, i.e., the development by both manufacturing and tertiary sectors and the change in the primary sector; and (3) the recent institutional changes and increased integration with the global economy.

Poplar plantation has the potential to alter the water balance in semiarid Inner Mongolia.

Poplar plantation is the most dominant broadleaf forest type in northern China. Since the mid-1990s plantation was intensified to combat desertification along China's northwestern border, i.e., within Inner Mongolia (IM). This evoked much concern regarding the ecological and environmental effects on areas that naturally grow grass or shrub vegetation. To highlight potential consequences of large-scale poplar plantations on the water budget within semiarid IM, we compared the growing season water balance (evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation (PPT)) of a 3-yr old poplar plantation (Kp(3)) and a natural shrubland (Ks) in the Kubuqi Desert in western IM, and a 6-yr old poplar plantation (Bp(6)) growing under sub-humid climate near Beijing. The results showed that, despite 33% lower PPT at Kp(3), ET was 2% higher at Kp(3) (228 mm) as compared with Ks (223 mm) in May-September 2006. The difference derived mainly from higher ET at the plantation during drier periods of the growing season, which also indicated that the poplars must have partly transpired groundwater. Estimated growing season ET at Bp(6) was about 550 mm and more than 100% higher than at Kp(3). It is estimated that increases in leaf area index and net radiation at Kp(3) provide future potential for the poplars in Kubuqi to exceed the present ET and ET of the natural shrubland by 100-200%. These increases in ET are only possible through the permanent use of groundwater either directly by the trees or through increased irrigation. This may significantly change the water balance in the area (e.g., high ET at the cost of a reduction in the water table), which renders large-scale plantations a questionable tool in sustainable arid-land management.