ABSTRACT
Physical social interaction relevant to the spread of infectious diseases occurs, by its nature, at a local level. If infection and related mortality are associated with social background, it is therefore natural to study variation in them in relation to the social composition of local areas. The first part of the paper studies the geographical impact of Covid-19 infection on age-standardised sex-specific excess death rates during the peak months of the pandemic so far, March through May 2020. The second part examines monthly mortality dynamics in relation to predictions from a spatial SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model of infection introduced by Bisin and Moro (2020). The analysis indicates that during the peak months of the Covid-19 pandemic, a larger non-white population and higher social deprivation in an area were associated with higher excess mortality, particularly among men. Regarding dynamics, higher population density accelerated the growth in mortality during the upsurge in infection and increased its rate of decline after the peak of the epidemic, thereby producing a more peaked mortality profile. There is also evidence of a slower post-peak decline in mortality in more socially deprived areas but a more rapid decline in areas with a larger non-white population.
ABSTRACT
The analysis in this paper uses the new Understanding Society COVID-19 survey. The key advantage of these data is that they allow us to examine infection rates for people with particular characteristics. We study how reported symptoms vary in the population and relate reported symptoms to a positive Covid-19 test in the small sample in the survey who were tested. Combining these probabilities we find that the chances of infection increase with a persons education level, are lower and declining with age among those aged over 55, and were higher in the West Midlands and London and lower in the North East than in the rest of the country, and tended to increase with regional population density. There is also evidence that the infection rate was lower among those of a Caribbean origin. A suitably cautious estimate of the mean infection rate is that, during the period up to the end of April 2020, it was between 2% and 8%, with a central rate of about 5%.
ABSTRACT
ObjectiveTo determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality, life expectancy and lifespan inequality in the first half of 2020 (from week 1 to week 26 starting June 22) in England and Wales. DesignDemographic analysis of all-cause mortality from week 1 through week 26 of 2020 using publicly available death registration data from the Office for National Statistics. Setting and populationEngland and Wales population by age and sex in 2020. Main outcome measureAge and sex-specific excess mortality risk and deaths above a baseline adjusted for seasonality in the first half of 2020. We additionally provide estimates of life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality defined as the standard deviation in age at death. ResultsWe estimate that there have been 53,937 (95% Prediction Interval: 53,092, 54,746) excess deaths in the first half of 2020, 54% of which occurred in men. Excess deaths increased sharply with age and men experienced elevated risks of death in all age groups. Life expectancy at birth dropped 1.7 and 1.9 years for females and males relative to the 2019 levels, respectively. Lifespan inequality also fell over the same period. ConclusionsQuantifying excess deaths and their impact on life expectancy at birth provides a more comprehensive picture of the full COVID-19 burden on mortality. Whether mortality will return to - or even fall below - the baseline level remains to be seen as the pandemic continues to unfold and diverse interventions are put in place. Summary boxesO_ST_ABSWhat is already known on this topicC_ST_ABSCOVID-19 related deaths may be misclassified as other causes of death thereby underestimating the full impact of the pandemic on mortality. Excess mortality, the difference between observed deaths and what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic, is a useful metric to quantify the overall impact of the pandemic on mortality and population health. Life expectancy at birth and lifespan inequality assess the cumulative impact of the pandemic on population health. What this study addsWe examine death registration data from the Office for National Statistics from 2015 to week 26 (mid-year) in 2020 to quantify the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality in England and Wales thus far. We estimate excess mortality risk by age and sex, and quantify the impact of excess mortality risk on excess deaths, life expectancy and lifespan inequality. During weeks 10 through 26 of 2020, elevated mortality rates resulted in 53,937 additional deaths compared with baseline mortality. Life expectancy at birth for males and females in the first half of 2020 was 78 and 81.8 years, which represent a decline of 1.9 and 1.7 years of life lost relative to the year 2019. Lifespan inequality, a measure of the spread or variation in ages at death, declined due to the increase of mortality at older ages.
