Examining associations between social vulnerability indices and COVID-19 incidence and mortality with spatial-temporal Bayesian modeling.

This study compares two social vulnerability indices, the U.S. CDC SVI and SoVI (the Social Vulnerability Index developed at the Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina), on their ability to predict the risk of COVID-19 cases and deaths. We utilize COVID-19 cases and deaths data for the state of Indiana from the Regenstrief Institute in Indianapolis, Indiana, from March 1, 2020, to March 31, 2021. We then aggregate the COVID-19 data to the census tract level, obtain the input variables, domains (components), and composite measures of both CDC SVI and SoVI data to create a Bayesian spatial-temporal ecological regression model. We compare the resulting spatial-temporal patterns and relative risk (RR) of SARS-CoV-2 infection (COVID-19 cases) and associated death. Results show there are discernable spatial-temporal patterns for SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths with the largest contiguous hotspot for SARS-CoV-2 infections found in the southwest of the Indianapolis metropolitan area. We also observed one large contiguous hotspot for deaths that stretches across Indiana from the Cincinnati area in the southeast to just east and north of Terre Haute (southeast to west central). The spatial-temporal Bayesian model shows that a 1-percentile increase in CDC SVI was significantly (p ≤ 0.05) associated with an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection by 6 % (RR = 1.06, 95 %CI = 1.04 -1.08). Whereas a 1-percentile increase in SoVI was significantly predicted to increase the risk of COVID-19 death by 45 % (RR = 1.45, 95 %CI =1.38 - 1.53). Domain-specific variables related to socioeconomic status, age, and race/ethnicity were shown to increase the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths. There were notable differences in the relative risk estimates for SARS-CoV-2 infections and deaths when each of the two indices were incorporated in the model. Observed differences between the two social vulnerability indices and infection and death are likely due to alternative methodologies of formation and differences in input variables. The findings add to the growing literature on the relationship between social vulnerability and COVID-19 and further the development of COVID-19-specific vulnerability indices by illustrating the utility of local spatial-temporal analysis.

Predicting COVID-19 community infection relative risk with a Dynamic Bayesian Network.

As COVID-19 continues to impact the United States and the world at large it is becoming increasingly necessary to develop methods which predict local scale spread of the disease. This is especially important as newer variants of the virus are likely to emerge and threaten community spread. We develop a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) to predict community-level relative risk of COVID-19 infection at the census tract scale in the U.S. state of Indiana. The model incorporates measures of social and environmental vulnerability-including environmental determinants of COVID-19 infection-into a spatial temporal prediction of infection relative risk 1-month into the future. The DBN significantly outperforms five other modeling techniques used for comparison and which are typically applied in spatial epidemiological applications. The logic behind the DBN also makes it very well-suited for spatial-temporal prediction and for "what-if" analysis. The research results also highlight the need for further research using DBN-type approaches that incorporate methods of artificial intelligence into modeling dynamic processes, especially prominent within spatial epidemiologic applications.

Population-Based Disparities in U.S. Urban Heat Exposure from 2003 to 2018.

Previous studies have shown, in the United States (U.S.), that communities of color are exposed to significantly higher temperatures in urban environments than complementary White populations. Studies highlighting this disparity have generally been cross-sectional and are therefore "snapshots" in time. Using surface urban heat island (SUHI) intensity data, U.S. Census 2020 population counts, and a measure of residential segregation, this study performs a comparative analysis between census tracts identified as prevalent for White, Black, Hispanic and Asian populations and their thermal exposure from 2003 to 2018. The analysis concentrates on the top 200 most populous U.S. cities. SUHI intensity is shown to be increasing on average through time for the examined tracts. However, based on raw observations the increase is only statistically significant for White and Black prevalent census tracts. There is a 1.25 K to ~2.00 K higher degree of thermal exposure on average for communities of color relative to White prevalent areas. When examined on an inter-city basis, White and Black prevalent tracts had the largest disparity, as measured by SUHI intensity, in New Orleans, LA, by <6.00 K. Hispanic (>7.00 K) and Asian (<6.75 K) prevalent tracts were greatest in intensity in San Jose, CA. To further explore temporal patterns, two models were developed using a Bayesian hierarchical spatial temporal framework. One models the effect of varying the percentages of each population group relative to SUHI intensity within all examined tracts. Increases in percentages of Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations contributed to statistically significant increases in SUHI intensity. White increases in population percentage witnessed a lowering of SUHI intensity. Throughout all modeled tracts, there is a statistically significant 0.01 K per year average increase in SUHI intensity. A second model tests the effect of residential segregation on thermal inequity across all examined cities. Residential segregation, indeed, has a statistically significant positive association with SUHI intensity based on this portion of the analysis. Similarly, there is a statistically significant 0.01 K increase in average SUHI intensity per year for all cities. Results from this study can be used to guide and prioritize intervention strategies and further urgency related to social, climatic, and environmental justice concerns.

The genus Creaserinus Hobbs, 1973 (Decapoda: Cambaridae) in Texas.

Presented is an account of the crayfish genus Creaserinus Hobbs, 1973 for Texas, based on materials gathered during a 13-year survey of the state. Home to Texas are six members of the genus, including C. hedgpethi (Hobbs, 1948) stat. rev., n. comb., which is resurrected from the synonymy of C. fodiens; and five species new to science described herein, including C. brevistylus n. sp., C. clausus n. sp., C. crenastylus n. sp., C. limulus n. sp., and C. trinensis n. sp. Collections of these species except for C. trinensis n. sp. were previously known and studied but ascribed to C. fodiens (Cottle, 1863), which is removed from the fauna of the state. Support for the taxonomic acts comes from genetics, morphology, distribution, life history, habitat, and syntopy. Accounts are provided for each species and include illustrations and information on distribution, color pattern, relationships, life history, ecology, size, variations, and crayfish associates. A key to the species in the state based on form I males is provided. Creaserinus limulus n. sp. is extraordinary in that a majority of its populations sampled have been composed mostly or entirely of females. Additions to the faunas of Texass neighboring states include C. clausus n. sp. (Louisiana), C. crenastylus n. sp. (Louisiana), and C. limulus n. sp. (Arkansas and Oklahoma).

Spatiotemporal Associations Between Social Vulnerability, Environmental Measurements, and COVID-19 in the Conterminous United States.

This study summarizes the results from fitting a Bayesian hierarchical spatiotemporal model to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and deaths at the county level in the United States for the year 2020. Two models were created, one for cases and one for deaths, utilizing a scaled Besag, York, Mollié model with Type I spatial-temporal interaction. Each model accounts for 16 social vulnerability and 7 environmental variables as fixed effects. The spatial pattern between COVID-19 cases and deaths is significantly different in many ways. The spatiotemporal trend of the pandemic in the United States illustrates a shift out of many of the major metropolitan areas into the United States Southeast and Southwest during the summer months and into the upper Midwest beginning in autumn. Analysis of the major social vulnerability predictors of COVID-19 infection and death found that counties with higher percentages of those not having a high school diploma, having non-White status and being Age 65 and over to be significant. Among the environmental variables, above ground level temperature had the strongest effect on relative risk to both cases and deaths. Hot and cold spots, areas of statistically significant high and low COVID-19 cases and deaths respectively, derived from the convolutional spatial effect show that areas with a high probability of above average relative risk have significantly higher Social Vulnerability Index composite scores. The same analysis utilizing the spatiotemporal interaction term exemplifies a more complex relationship between social vulnerability, environmental measurements, COVID-19 cases, and COVID-19 deaths.

The subgenus Ortmannicus (Decapoda: Cambaridae) in Texas, with descriptions of new species.

Three crayfishes of the genus Procambarus, subgenus Ortmannicus, are described from Texas, including (1) Procambarus (Ortmannicus) parvus n. sp. from the Victoria-El Campo region of the Coastal Plain; (2) P. (O.) albaughi n. sp. from the Coastal Plain in the vicinity of Houston; and (3) P. (O.) fayettei n. sp. from the eastern versant of the Colorado River drainage south of Giddings. The three new species, P. (O.) acutus, P. (O.) texanus, and P. (O.) zonangulus form a closely allied group. They are distinguished from each other primarily by characters of the first pleopod. The subspecies P. (O.) acutus acutus and P. (O.) a. cuevachicae are elevated to full species. Species accounts are provided for all Texas subgenus members and may include diagnoses, color notes, size data, locality data, life history notes, listings of associates, and information on variation and relationships. A key to the species of Ortmannicus in Texas is also presented.

Is set shifting really impaired in trait anxiety? Only when switching away from an effortfully established task set.

The current study investigated whether trait anxiety was systematically related to task-set shifting performance, using a task-switching paradigm in which 1 task was more attentionally demanding than the other. Specifically, taking advantage of a well-established phenomenon known as asymmetric switch costs, we tested the hypothesis that the association between trait anxiety and task-set shifting is most clearly observed when individuals must switch away from a more attentionally demanding task for which it was necessary to effortfully establish an appropriate task set. Ninety-one young adults completed an asymmetric switching task and trait-level mood questionnaires. Results indicated that higher levels of trait anxiety were systematically associated with greater asymmetry in reaction time (RT) switch costs. Specifically, the RT costs for switching from the more attentionally demanding task to the less demanding task were significantly greater with higher levels of trait anxiety, whereas the RT costs for switching in the opposite direction were not significantly associated with trait anxiety levels. Further analyses indicated that these associations were not attributable to comorbid dysphoria or worry. These results suggest that levels of trait anxiety may not be related to general set-shifting ability per se, but, rather, that anxiety-specific effects may primarily be restricted to when one must efficiently switch away from (or let go of) an effortfully established task set. (PsycINFO Database Record

An examination of the developmental propensity model of conduct problems.

The present study tested specific hypotheses advanced by the developmental propensity model of the etiology of conduct problems in the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Study, a prospective, longitudinal, genetically informative sample. High negative emotionality, low behavioral inhibition, low concern and high disregard for others, and low cognitive ability assessed during toddlerhood (age 14 to 36 months) were examined as predictors of conduct problems in later childhood and adolescence (age 4 to 17 years). Each hypothesized antisocial propensity dimension predicted conduct problems, but some predictions may be context specific or due to method covariance. The most robust predictors were observed disregard for others (i.e., responding to others' distress with active, negative responses such as anger and hostility), general cognitive ability, and language ability, which were associated with conduct problems reported by parents, teachers, and adolescents, and change in observed negative emotionality (i.e., frustration tolerance), which was associated with conduct problems reported by teachers and adolescents. Furthermore, associations between the most robust early predictors and later conduct problems were influenced by the shared environment rather than genes. We conclude that shared environmental influences that promote disregard for others and detract from cognitive and language development during toddlerhood also predispose individuals to conduct problems in later childhood and adolescence. The identification of those shared environmental influences common to early antisocial propensity and later conduct problems is an important future direction, and additional developmental behavior genetic studies examining the interaction between children's characteristics and socializing influences on conduct problems are needed. (PsycINFO Database Record

A Twin Study Examining Rumination as a Transdiagnostic Correlate of Psychopathology.

This study examined the genetic and environmental influences on rumination and its associations with several forms of psychopathology in a sample of adult twins (N = 744). Rumination was significantly associated with major depressive disorder, depressive symptoms, generalized anxiety disorder, eating pathology, and substance dependence symptoms. There were distinct patterns of etiological overlap between rumination and each form of psychopathology; rumination had considerable genetic overlap with depression, modest genetic overlap with eating pathology, and almost no genetic overlap with substance dependence. Findings further suggest considerable overlap between genetic and environmental influences on rumination and those contributing to the covariance between forms of psychopathology. Results were specific to ruminative thought and did not extend to self-reflection. These findings support the conceptualization of rumination as a transdiagnostic correlate and risk factor for psychopathology and also suggest that the biological and environmental mechanisms linking rumination to psychopathology may differ depending on the disorder.

A Behavior Genetic Analysis of Pleasant Events, Depressive Symptoms, and Their Covariation.

Although pleasant events figure prominently in behavioral models of depression, little is known regarding characteristics that may predispose people to engage in pleasant events and derive pleasure from these events. The present study was conducted to evaluate genetic and environmental influences on the experience of pleasant events, depressive symptoms, and their covariation in a sample of 148 twin pairs. A multivariate twin modeling approach was used to examine the genetic and environmental covariance of pleasant events and depressive symptoms. Results indicated that the experience of pleasant events was moderately heritable and that the same genetic factors influence both the experience of pleasant events and depressive symptoms. These findings suggest that genetic factors may give rise to dispositional tendencies to experience both pleasant events and depression.

Intimate relationship involvement, intimate relationship quality, and psychiatric disorders in adolescents.

Prior research has shown that poor relationship quality in marriage and other intimate relationships demonstrates cross-sectional and longitudinal associations with a variety of psychiatric disorders in adults. In comparison, there has been less research on the covariation between relationship quality and psychiatric disorders in adolescents, a developmental period that is associated with elevated risk of incidence of several disorders and that is important for the acquisition and maintenance of intimate relationships. The present study was conducted to examine the associations between intimate relationship involvement, intimate relationship quality, and psychiatric disorders in a population-based sample of adolescents. The associations between relationship involvement, positive and negative relationship quality, and 12-month prevalence of mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders were evaluated in adolescents from the National Comorbidity Survey-Adolescent Supplement. Participants completed an interview-based assessment of psychiatric disorders and a self-report measure of relationship quality. Results indicated that the prevalence of broad categories of mood, anxiety, and substance use disorders, and several specific disorders were significantly associated with (a) being married, cohabiting, or involved in a serious relationship; and (b) reporting more negative (but not less positive) relationship quality. For several disorders, the association between the disorder and relationship involvement was moderated by age, wherein the strength of the association decreased in magnitude with increasing age. Findings suggest that being in an intimate relationship and reporting higher levels of negative relationship quality are associated with the prevalence of several common psychiatric disorders in adolescents.

Genetic and Environmental Influences on the Association between Subjective Well-Being and Marital Adjustment.

This study was conducted to estimate the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences on the association between three indices of subjective well-being (i.e., life satisfaction, positive affect, negative affect) and positive and negative components of marital adjustment (i.e., spousal support, spousal strain) in a sample of adult married twin pairs (N = 453 pairs). Results indicated that subjective well-being and marital adjustment were significantly associated (particularly in women), that there were gender differences in the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences on this covariation, and that this association was largely influenced by genetic factors in women and genetic and nonshared environmental factors in men. These findings highlight the importance of using genetically informed research to evaluate the genetic and environmental influences on the covariation between marital adjustment and individual outcomes such as subjective well-being.

Genetic and environmental influences on rumination and its covariation with depression.

This study examined the extent to which rumination and depression share genetic and environmental influences in a community sample of adult twins (N=663). Twins completed multiple rumination questionnaires, a depressive symptoms questionnaire and a diagnostic interview. Rumination was moderately heritable (h2=.37-.41 for the latent variable) and substantially influenced by nonshared environmental factors, and these results were consistent across different measures. Nonshared environmental influences on rumination were larger for women than men. Depressive symptoms and diagnosis were influenced by genetic and nonshared environmental factors (h2=.30-.45). The genetic correlations between rumination and depression were moderate to large (rA=.40-.82), suggesting that a substantial proportion of the genetic influences on rumination overlap with those on depression. Results were similar when examining self-reported depressive symptoms and interview-based diagnosis of major depressive disorder. These results highlight the importance of rumination in the integration of cognitive and genetic models of depression risk.

Gender differences in rumination: A meta-analysis.

Starting in adolescence and continuing through adulthood, women are twice as likely as men to experience depression. According to the response styles theory (RST), gender differences in depression result, in part, from women's tendency to ruminate more than men. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate gender differences in rumination in adults (k = 59; N = 14,321); additionally, an analysis of subtypes of rumination - brooding and reflection - was conducted (k = 23). Fixed effects analyses indicated that women scored higher than men in rumination (d = .24, p < .01, SEd = .02), brooding (d = .19, p < .01, SEd = .03) and reflection (d = .17, p < .01, SEd = .03); there was no evidence of heterogeneity or publication bias across studies for these effect sizes. Although statistically significant, the effect sizes for gender differences in rumination were small in magnitude. Results are discussed with respect to the RST and gender differences in depression.

Genetic and environmental influences on negative life events from late childhood to adolescence.

This multiwave longitudinal study tested two quantitative genetic developmental models to examine genetic and environmental influences on exposure to negative dependent and independent life events. Participants (N = 457 twin pairs) completed measures of life events annually from ages 9 to 16. The same genetic factors influenced exposure to dependent events across time and increased in magnitude during the transition to adolescence. Independent events were less genetically influenced than dependent events in boys, but not girls. Shared environmental influences decreased in magnitude as youth transitioned into adolescence. Nonshared environmental influences were mostly age specific and contributed significantly to both types of events at all ages. Results provide theoretical implications for developmental risk pathways to stress exposure and stress-related psychopathology.

Association between depressive symptoms and negative dependent life events from late childhood to adolescence.

The association between stressful life events and depression has been consistently supported in the literature; however, studies of the developmental trajectories of these constructs and the nature of their association over time are limited. We examined trajectories of depressive symptoms and negative dependent life events and the associations between these constructs in a sample of 916 youth assessed annually from age 9 to 16, using latent growth curve modeling. Youth depressive symptoms, as rated by youth, parents, and teachers, decreased from late childhood into adolescence, whereas rates of youth-rated life events did not change significantly over time. Initial levels of depressive symptoms were positively associated with initial levels of life events. Furthermore, after controlling for the initial association between the two constructs, increases in depressive symptoms (as assessed by parents and youth) were positively associated with increases in life events over time. The study builds on prior research by focusing specifically on negative dependent life events, examining results across multiple informants, and employing latent growth curve modeling to evaluate associations between trajectories of life events and depressive symptoms in a longitudinal adolescent sample. Additional studies employing latent growth modeling to examine the changes in this association during adolescence are needed.

The etiology of observed negative emotionality from 14 to 24 months.

We examined the magnitude of genetic and environmental influences on observed negative emotionality at age 14, 20, and 24 months. Participants were 403 same-sex twin pairs recruited from the Longitudinal Twin Study whose emotional responses to four different situations were coded by independent raters. Negative emotionality showed significant consistency across settings, and there was evidence of a latent underlying negative emotionality construct. Heritability decreased, and the magnitude of shared environmental influences increased, for the latent negative emotionality construct from age 14 to 24 months. There were significant correlations between negative emotionality assessed at age 14, 20, and 24 months, and results suggested common genetic and shared environmental influences affecting negative emotionality across age, and that age-specific influences are limited to non-shared environmental influences, which include measurement error.

Dysfunctional attitudes and the serotonin transporter promoter polymorphism (5-HTTLPR).

Dysfunctional attitudes may be one phenotype by which genes increase risk for depression. Building on research demonstrating associations between serotonin abnormalities and dysfunctional attitudes, we examined the covariation between dysfunctional attitudes and the serotonin transporter gene-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR). In a sample of nondepressed young adults (N=131), people with one or two copies of the low-expressing alleles reported stronger endorsement of dysfunctional attitudes regarding performance evaluation than people who were homozygous for the high-expressing alleles; there was no association between the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and dysfunctional attitudes regarding approval by others. These results add to the literature linking the 5-HTTLPR polymorphism and cognitive vulnerabilities for depression.

Early improvements in anxiety, depression, and anger/hostility symptoms and response to antidepressant treatment.

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to examine whether treatment response to fluoxetine by depressed outpatients was predicted by early improvement on any of 3 subscales (Anxiety, Depression, and Anger/Hostility) of the Symptom Questionnaire (SQ). METHODS: We evaluated 169 depressed outpatients (52.6% female) between ages 18 and 65 (mean age, 40.3 +/- 10.6 years) meeting DSM-IIIR criteria for major depressive disorder (MDD). All patients completed the SQ at baseline (week 0) and at weeks 2, 4, and 8 of treatment with fluoxetine 20 mg/d. We defined treatment response as a > or= 50% reduction in score on the 17-item Hamilton Rating Scale for Depression, and early improvement on 3 SQ subscales (Anxiety, Depression, and Anger/Hostility) as a >30% reduction in score by week 2. RESULTS: The percentage of patients with significant early improvement in anger was significantly greater than the percentage of those with early improvements in anxiety or depression. When early improvement on the Anxiety, Depression, and Anger/Hostility subscales of the SQ were assessed independently by logistic regression, all 3 subscales were predictors of response to treatment. CONCLUSIONS: Early improvement in anger, anxiety, and depressive symptoms may predict response to antidepressant treatment among outpatients with MDD.

Socioeconomic indicators of heat-related health risk supplemented with remotely sensed data.

BACKGROUND: Extreme heat events are the number one cause of weather-related fatalities in the United States. The current system of alert for extreme heat events does not take into account intra-urban spatial variation in risk. The purpose of this study is to evaluate a potential method to improve spatial delineation of risk from extreme heat events in urban environments by integrating sociodemographic risk factors with estimates of land surface temperature derived from thermal remote sensing data. RESULTS: Comparison of logistic regression models indicates that supplementing known sociodemographic risk factors with remote sensing estimates of land surface temperature improves the delineation of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat events. CONCLUSION: Thermal remote sensing data can be utilized to improve understanding of intra-urban variations in risk from extreme heat. The refinement of current risk assessment systems could increase the likelihood of survival during extreme heat events and assist emergency personnel in the delivery of vital resources during such disasters.