Master statistical analysis plan: attractive targeted sugar bait phase III trials in Kenya, Mali, and Zambia.

This manuscript is a master statistical analysis plan for each of three-cluster randomized controlled trials to evaluate the efficacy of attractive targeted sugar baits (ATSB) described in an already published protocol. The master SAP contains an overarching plan for all three trials, which can be adapted to trial-specific circumstances. The primary objective of the trials is to evaluate the efficacy of ATSB in the presence of universal vector control coverage with insecticide-treated nets (ITN) or indoor residual spraying (IRS) after two transmission seasons on clinical malaria incidence as compared with universal vector control coverage with ITN or IRS alone. The primary outcome measure is the incidence rate of clinical malaria, assessed in cohorts aged 12 months to less than 15 years (≥ 5 years to 15 years in Mali) during monthly follow-up visits. The primary unadjusted analysis will be conducted on the intention-to-treat analysis population without adjustment for any anticipated confounding variables. The primary outcome will be analyzed using a multi-level model constructed on a generalized linear model framework with a Poisson likelihood and a log link function. Random intercepts will be included for each study cluster and a fixed effect for study-arm. The analyst will be blinded to study arm assignment. Several secondary outcomes will be analyzed, as well as a pooled analysis (individual patient data meta-analysis) across the three trial sites. Additionally, a standard meta-analysis is expected to be conducted using combined data from all sites.

Heritability of biting time behaviours in the major African malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis.

BACKGROUND: The use of insecticide-treated nets for malaria control has been associated with shifts in mosquito vector feeding behaviour including earlier and outdoor biting on humans. The relative contribution of phenotypic plasticity and heritability to these behavioural shifts is unknown. Elucidation of the mechanisms behind these shifts is crucial for anticipating impacts on vector control. METHODS: A novel portable semi-field system (PSFS) was used to experimentally measure heritability of biting time in the malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis in Tanzania. Wild An. arabiensis from hourly collections using the human landing catch (HLC) method were grouped into one of 3 categories based on their time of capture: early (18:00-21:00), mid (22:00-04:00), and late (05:00-07:00) biting, and placed in separate holding cages. Mosquitoes were then provided with a blood meal for egg production and formation of first filial generation (F1). The F1 generation of each biting time phenotype category was reared separately, and blood fed at the same time as their mothers were captured host-seeking. The resultant eggs were used to generate the F2 generation for use in heritability assays. Heritability was assessed by releasing F2 An. arabiensis into the PSFS, recording their biting time during a human landing catch and comparing it to that of their F0 grandmothers. RESULTS: In PSFS assays, the biting time of F2 offspring (early: 18:00-21:00, mid: 22:00-04:00 or late: 05:00-07:00) was significantly positively associated with that of their wild-caught F0 grandmothers, corresponding to an estimated heritability of 0.110 (95% CI 0.003, 0.208). F2 from early-biting F0 were more likely to bite early than F2 from mid or late-biting F0. Similarly, the probability of biting late was higher in F2 derived from mid and late-biting F0 than from early-biting F0. CONCLUSIONS: Despite modest heritability, our results suggest that some of the variation in biting time is attributable to additive genetic variation. Selection can, therefore, act efficiently on mosquito biting times, highlighting the need for control methods that target early and outdoor biting mosquitoes.

Modeling the effectiveness of targeting Rift Valley fever virus vaccination using imperfect network information.

Livestock movements contribute to the spread of several infectious diseases. Data on livestock movements can therefore be harnessed to guide policy on targeted interventions for controlling infectious livestock diseases, including Rift Valley fever (RVF)-a vaccine-preventable arboviral fever. Detailed livestock movement data are known to be useful for targeting control efforts including vaccination. These data are available in many countries, however, such data are generally lacking in others, including many in East Africa, where multiple RVF outbreaks have been reported in recent years. Available movement data are imperfect, and the impact of this uncertainty in the utility of movement data on informing targeting of vaccination is not fully understood. Here, we used a network simulation model to describe the spread of RVF within and between 398 wards in northern Tanzania connected by cattle movements, on which we evaluated the impact of targeting vaccination using imperfect movement data. We show that pre-emptive vaccination guided by only market movement permit data could prevent large outbreaks. Targeted control (either by the risk of RVF introduction or onward transmission) at any level of imperfect movement information is preferred over random vaccination, and any improvement in information reliability is advantageous to their effectiveness. Our modeling approach demonstrates how targeted interventions can be effectively used to inform animal and public health policies for disease control planning. This is particularly valuable in settings where detailed data on livestock movements are either unavailable or imperfect due to resource limitations in data collection, as well as challenges associated with poor compliance.

Integrating contact tracing and whole-genome sequencing to track the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: An observational and genomic study.

Background: Dog-mediated rabies is endemic across Africa causing thousands of human deaths annually. A One Health approach to rabies is advocated, comprising emergency post-exposure vaccination of bite victims and mass dog vaccination to break the transmission cycle. However, the impacts and cost-effectiveness of these components are difficult to disentangle. Methods: We combined contact tracing with whole-genome sequencing to track rabies transmission in the animal reservoir and spillover risk to humans from 2010 to 2020, investigating how the components of a One Health approach reduced the disease burden and eliminated rabies from Pemba Island, Tanzania. With the resulting high-resolution spatiotemporal and genomic data, we inferred transmission chains and estimated case detection. Using a decision tree model, we quantified the public health burden and evaluated the impact and cost-effectiveness of interventions over a 10-year time horizon. Results: We resolved five transmission chains co-circulating on Pemba from 2010 that were all eliminated by May 2014. During this period, rabid dogs, human rabies exposures and deaths all progressively declined following initiation and improved implementation of annual islandwide dog vaccination. We identified two introductions to Pemba in late 2016 that seeded re-emergence after dog vaccination had lapsed. The ensuing outbreak was eliminated in October 2018 through reinstated islandwide dog vaccination. While post-exposure vaccines were projected to be highly cost-effective ($256 per death averted), only dog vaccination interrupts transmission. A combined One Health approach of routine annual dog vaccination together with free post-exposure vaccines for bite victims, rapidly eliminates rabies, is highly cost-effective ($1657 per death averted) and by maintaining rabies freedom prevents over 30 families from suffering traumatic rabid dog bites annually on Pemba island. Conclusions: A One Health approach underpinned by dog vaccination is an efficient, cost-effective, equitable, and feasible approach to rabies elimination, but needs scaling up across connected populations to sustain the benefits of elimination, as seen on Pemba, and for similar progress to be achieved elsewhere. Funding: Wellcome [207569/Z/17/Z, 095787/Z/11/Z, 103270/Z/13/Z], the UBS Optimus Foundation, the Department of Health and Human Services of the National Institutes of Health [R01AI141712] and the DELTAS Africa Initiative [Afrique One-ASPIRE/DEL-15-008] comprising a donor consortium of the African Academy of Sciences (AAS), Alliance for Accelerating Excellence in Science in Africa (AESA), the New Partnership for Africa's Development Planning and Coordinating (NEPAD) Agency, Wellcome [107753/A/15/Z], Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene Small Grant 2017 [GR000892] and the UK government. The rabies elimination demonstration project from 2010-2015 was supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP49679]. Whole-genome sequencing was partially supported from APHA by funding from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), Scottish government and Welsh government under projects SEV3500 and SE0421.

Does aerobic scope influence geographical distribution of teleost fishes?

Many abiotic and biotic factors are known to shape species' distributions, but we lack understanding of how innate physiological traits, such as aerobic scope (AS), may influence the latitudinal range of species. Based on theoretical assumptions, a positive link between AS and distribution range has been proposed, but there has been no broad comparative study across species to test this hypothesis. We collected metabolic rate data from the literature and performed a phylogenetically informed analysis to investigate the influence of AS on the current geographical distributions of 111 teleost fish species. Contrary to expectations, we found a negative relationship between absolute latitude range and thermal peak AS in temperate fishes. We found no evidence for an association between thermal range of AS and the range of latitudes occupied for 32 species. Our main results therefore contradict the prevailing theory of a positive link between AS and distribution range in fish.

Evaluating the potential of whole-genome sequencing for tracing transmission routes in experimental infections and natural outbreaks of bovine respiratory syncytial virus.

Bovine respiratory syncytial virus (BRSV) is a major cause of respiratory disease in cattle. Genomic sequencing can resolve phylogenetic relationships between virus populations, which can be used to infer transmission routes and potentially inform the design of biosecurity measures. Sequencing of short (<2000 nt) segments of the 15 000-nt BRSV genome has revealed geographic and temporal clustering of BRSV populations, but insufficient variation to distinguish viruses collected from herds infected close together in space and time. This study investigated the potential for whole-genome sequencing to reveal sufficient genomic variation for inferring transmission routes between herds. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) data were generated from experimental infections and from natural outbreaks in Jämtland and Uppsala counties in Sweden. Sufficient depth of coverage for analysis of consensus and sub-consensus sequence diversity was obtained from 47 to 20 samples respectively. Few (range: 0-6 polymorphisms across the six experiments) consensus-level polymorphisms were observed along experimental transmissions. A much higher level of diversity (146 polymorphic sites) was found among the consensus sequences from the outbreak samples. The majority (144/146) of polymorphisms were between rather than within counties, suggesting that consensus whole-genome sequences show insufficient spatial resolution for inferring direct transmission routes, but might allow identification of outbreak sources at the regional scale. By contrast, within-sample diversity was generally higher in the experimental than the outbreak samples. Analyses to infer known (experimental) and suspected (outbreak) transmission links from within-sample diversity data were uninformative. In conclusion, analysis of the whole-genome sequence of BRSV from experimental samples discriminated between circulating isolates from distant areas, but insufficient diversity was observed between closely related isolates to aid local transmission route inference.

Inter-epidemic Rift Valley fever virus infection incidence and risks for zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania.

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a mosquito-borne pathogen that has caused epidemics involving people and animals across Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. A number of studies have found evidence for the circulation of RVFV among livestock between these epidemics but the population-level incidence of infection during this inter-epidemic period (IEP) is rarely reported. General force of infection (FOI) models were applied to age-adjusted cross-sectional serological data to reconstruct the annual FOI and population-level incidence of RVFV infection among cattle, goats, and sheep in northern Tanzania from 2009 through 2015, a period without reported Rift Valley fever (RVF) cases in people or animals. To evaluate the potential for zoonotic RVFV spillover during this period, the relationship between village-level livestock RVFV FOI and human RVFV seropositivity was quantified using multi-level logistic regression. The predicted average annual incidence was 72 (95% Credible Interval [CrI] 63, 81) RVFV infections per 10,000 animals and 96 (95% CrI 81, 113), 79 (95% CrI 62, 98), and 39 (95% CrI 28, 52) per 10,000 cattle, sheep, and goats, respectively. There was variation in transmission intensity between study villages, with the highest estimated village-level FOI 2.49% (95% CrI 1.89, 3.23) and the lowest 0.12% (95% CrI 0.02, 0.43). The human RVFV seroprevalence was 8.2% (95% Confidence Interval 6.2, 10.9). Human seropositivity was strongly associated with the village-level FOI in livestock, with the odds of seropositivity in an individual person increasing by around 1.2 times (95% CrI 1.1, 1.3) for each additional annual RVFV seroconversion per 1,000 animals. A history of raw milk consumption was also positively associated with human seropositivity. RVFV has circulated at apparently low levels among livestock in northern Tanzania in the period since the last reported epidemic. Although our data do not allow us to confirm human RVFV infections during the IEP, a strong association between human seropositivity and the FOI in cattle, goats, and sheep supports the hypothesis that RVFV circulation among livestock during the IEP poses a risk for undetected zoonotic spillover in northern Tanzania. We provide further evidence for the likely role of raw milk consumption in RVFV transmission from animals to people.

Risk factors for Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) virus exposure in farming communities in Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever (CCHF) is an emerging human-health threat causing sporadic outbreaks in livestock farming communities. However, the full extent and the risks associated with exposure of such communities has not previously been well-described. METHODS: We collected blood samples from 800 humans, 666 cattle, 549 goats and 32 dogs in districts within and outside Ugandan cattle corridor in a cross-sectional survey, and tested for CCHFV-specific IgG antibodies using Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assays. Sociodemographic and epidemiological data were recorded using structured questionnaire. Ticks were collected to identify circulating nairoviruses by metagenomic sequencing. RESULTS: CCHFV seropositivity was in 221/800 (27·6%) in humans, 612/666 (91·8%) in cattle, 413/549 (75·2%) in goats and 18/32 (56·2%) in dogs. Human seropositivity was associated with livestock farming (AOR=5·68, p<0·0001), age (AOR=2·99, p=0·002) and collecting/eating engorged ticks (AOR=2·13, p=0·004). In animals, seropositivity was higher in cattle versus goats (AOR=2·58, p<0·0001), female sex (AOR=2·13, p=0·002) and heavy tick infestation (>50 ticks: AOR=3·52, p=0·004). CCHFV was identified in multiple tick pools of Rhipicephalus appendiculatus. INTERPRETATION: The very high CCHF seropositivity especially among livestock farmers and multiple regional risk factors associated exposures, including collecting/eating engorged ticks previously unrecognised, highlights need for further surveillance and sensitisation and control policies against the disease.

Development of Dog Vaccination Strategies to Maintain Herd Immunity against Rabies.

Human rabies can be prevented through mass dog vaccination campaigns; however, in rabies endemic countries, pulsed central point campaigns do not always achieve the recommended coverage of 70%. This study describes the development of a novel approach to sustain high coverage based on decentralized and continuous vaccination delivery. A rabies vaccination campaign was conducted across 12 wards in the Mara region, Tanzania to test this approach. Household surveys were used to obtain data on vaccination coverage as well as factors influencing dog vaccination. A total 17,571 dogs were vaccinated, 2654 using routine central point delivery and 14,917 dogs using one of three strategies of decentralized continuous vaccination. One month after the first vaccination campaign, coverage in areas receiving decentralized vaccinations was higher (64.1, 95% Confidence Intervals (CIs) 62.1-66%) than in areas receiving pulsed vaccinations (35.9%, 95% CIs 32.6-39.5%). Follow-up surveys 10 months later showed that vaccination coverage in areas receiving decentralized vaccinations remained on average over 60% (60.7%, 95% CIs 58.5-62.8%) and much higher than in villages receiving pulsed vaccinations where coverage was on average 32.1% (95% CIs 28.8-35.6%). We conclude that decentralized continuous dog vaccination strategies have the potential to improve vaccination coverage and maintain herd immunity against rabies.

Technical report: In-gel sample preparation prior to proteomic analysis of bovine faeces increases protein identifications by removal of high molecular weight glycoproteins.

Bovine faecal composition is complex and a knowledge gap exists in the understanding of the bovine faecal proteome. In the present study, in-gel sample preparation (IGSP) of faecal samples prior to proteomics showed an increase in the number of proteins identified in faecal samples compared to those processed by filter-aided sample preparation (FASP). The optimised sample preparation method removed high molecular weight glycoproteins as part of the clean-up process of the faecal samples, and in combination with in-gel digestion before liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). The use of IGSP led to enhanced protein identification with increases in the number of peptides identified and in the percent coverage of proteins in the bovine faecal samples. SIGNIFICANCE: Characterization of faecal proteins has the potential to increase our understanding of host responses to changes such as diet, disease and drug-treatment. In-gel sample preparation prior to proteomics can be used to remove high molecular weight glycoproteins and reduce protein/peptide loss in FASP. This method of sample preparation will have application not only in the investigation of bovine faecal extracts but also in studies where large molecules such as glycoproteins or oligosaccharides could have detrimental influences on sample preparation involving ultrafiltration.

Rapid age-grading and species identification of natural mosquitoes for malaria surveillance.

The malaria parasite, which is transmitted by several Anopheles mosquito species, requires more time to reach its human-transmissible stage than the average lifespan of mosquito vectors. Monitoring the species-specific age structure of mosquito populations is critical to evaluating the impact of vector control interventions on malaria risk. We present a rapid, cost-effective surveillance method based on deep learning of mid-infrared spectra of mosquito cuticle that simultaneously identifies the species and age class of three main malaria vectors in natural populations. Using spectra from over 40, 000 ecologically and genetically diverse An. gambiae, An. arabiensis, and An. coluzzii females, we develop a deep transfer learning model that learns and predicts the age of new wild populations in Tanzania and Burkina Faso with minimal sampling effort. Additionally, the model is able to detect the impact of simulated control interventions on mosquito populations, measured as a shift in their age structures. In the future, we anticipate our method can be applied to other arthropod vector-borne diseases.

High Temperature Cycles Result in Maternal Transmission and Dengue Infection Differences Between Wolbachia Strains in Aedes aegypti.

Environmental factors play a crucial role in the population dynamics of arthropod endosymbionts, and therefore in the deployment of Wolbachia symbionts for the control of dengue arboviruses. The potential of Wolbachia to invade, persist, and block virus transmission depends in part on its intracellular density. Several recent studies have highlighted the importance of larval rearing temperature in modulating Wolbachia densities in adults, suggesting that elevated temperatures can severely impact some strains, while having little effect on others. The effect of a replicated tropical heat cycle on Wolbachia density and levels of virus blocking was assessed using Aedes aegypti lines carrying strains wMel and wAlbB, two Wolbachia strains currently used for dengue control. Impacts on intracellular density, maternal transmission fidelity, and dengue inhibition capacity were observed for wMel. In contrast, wAlbB-carrying Ae. aegypti maintained a relatively constant intracellular density at high temperatures and conserved its capacity to inhibit dengue. Following larval heat treatment, wMel showed a degree of density recovery in aging adults, although this was compromised by elevated air temperatures. IMPORTANCE In the past decades, dengue incidence has dramatically increased all over the world. An emerging dengue control strategy utilizes Aedes aegypti mosquitoes artificially transinfected with the bacterial symbiont Wolbachia, with the ultimate aim of replacing wild mosquito populations. However, the rearing temperature of mosquito larvae is known to impact on some Wolbachia strains. In this study, we compared the effects of a temperature cycle mimicking natural breeding sites in tropical climates on two Wolbachia strains, currently used for open field trials. When choosing the Wolbachia strain to be used in a dengue control program it is important to consider the effects of environmental temperatures on invasiveness and virus inhibition. These results underline the significance of understanding the impact of environmental factors on released mosquitoes, in order to ensure the most efficient strategy for dengue control.

The antiviral state has shaped the CpG composition of the vertebrate interferome to avoid self-targeting.

Antiviral defenses can sense viral RNAs and mediate their destruction. This presents a challenge for host cells since they must destroy viral RNAs while sparing the host mRNAs that encode antiviral effectors. Here, we show that highly upregulated interferon-stimulated genes (ISGs), which encode antiviral proteins, have distinctive nucleotide compositions. We propose that self-targeting by antiviral effectors has selected for ISG transcripts that occupy a less self-targeted sequence space. Following interferon (IFN) stimulation, the CpG-targeting antiviral effector zinc-finger antiviral protein (ZAP) reduces the mRNA abundance of multiple host transcripts, providing a mechanistic explanation for the repression of many (but not all) interferon-repressed genes (IRGs). Notably, IRGs tend to be relatively CpG rich. In contrast, highly upregulated ISGs tend to be strongly CpG suppressed. Thus, ZAP is an example of an effector that has not only selected compositional biases in viral genomes but also appears to have notably shaped the composition of host transcripts in the vertebrate interferome.

Sex-dimorphic genetic effects and novel loci for fasting glucose and insulin variability.

Differences between sexes contribute to variation in the levels of fasting glucose and insulin. Epidemiological studies established a higher prevalence of impaired fasting glucose in men and impaired glucose tolerance in women, however, the genetic component underlying this phenomenon is not established. We assess sex-dimorphic (73,089/50,404 women and 67,506/47,806 men) and sex-combined (151,188/105,056 individuals) fasting glucose/fasting insulin genetic effects via genome-wide association study meta-analyses in individuals of European descent without diabetes. Here we report sex dimorphism in allelic effects on fasting insulin at IRS1 and ZNF12 loci, the latter showing higher RNA expression in whole blood in women compared to men. We also observe sex-homogeneous effects on fasting glucose at seven novel loci. Fasting insulin in women shows stronger genetic correlations than in men with waist-to-hip ratio and anorexia nervosa. Furthermore, waist-to-hip ratio is causally related to insulin resistance in women, but not in men. These results position dissection of metabolic and glycemic health sex dimorphism as a steppingstone for understanding differences in genetic effects between women and men in related phenotypes.

Classification and characterisation of livestock production systems in northern Tanzania.

Livestock keepers in sub-Saharan Africa face a range of pressures, including climate change, land loss, restrictive policies, and population increase. Widespread adaptation in response can lead to the emergence of new, non-traditional typologies of livestock production. We sought to characterise livestock production systems in two administrative regions in northern Tanzania, an area undergoing rapid social, economic, and environmental change. Questionnaire and spatial data were collected from 404 livestock-keeping households in 21 villages in Arusha and Manyara Regions in 2016. Multiple factor analysis and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to classify households into livestock production systems based on household-level characteristics. Adversity-based indicators of vulnerability, including reports of hunger, illness, and livestock, land and crop losses were compared between production systems. Three distinct clusters emerged through this process. The ethnic, environmental and livestock management characteristics of households in each cluster broadly mapped onto traditional definitions of 'pastoral', 'agro-pastoral' and 'smallholder' livestock production in the study area, suggesting that this quantitative classification system is complementary to more qualitative classification methods. Our approach allowed us to demonstrate a diversity in typologies of livestock production at small spatial scales, with almost half of study villages comprising more than one production system. We also found indicators of change within livestock production systems, most notably the adoption of crop agriculture in the majority of pastoral households. System-level heterogeneities in vulnerability were evident, with agro-pastoral households most likely to report hunger and pastoral households most likely to report illness in people and livestock, and livestock losses. We demonstrate that livestock production systems can provide context for assessing household vulnerability in northern Tanzania. Policy initiatives to improve household and community well-being should recognise the continuing diversity of traditional livestock production systems in northern Tanzania, including the diversity that can exist at small spatial scales.

Towards the elimination of dog-mediated rabies: development and application of an evidence-based management tool.

BACKGROUND: International organizations advocate for the elimination of dog-mediated rabies, but there is only limited guidance on interpreting surveillance data for managing elimination programmes. With the regional programme in Latin America approaching elimination of dog-mediated rabies, we aimed to develop a tool to evaluate the programme's performance and generate locally-tailored rabies control programme management guidance to overcome remaining obstacles. METHODS: We developed and validated a robust algorithm to classify progress towards rabies elimination within sub-national administrative units, which we applied to surveillance data from Brazil and Mexico. The method combines criteria that are easy to understand, including logistic regression analysis of case detection time series, assessment of rabies virus variants, and of incursion risk. Subjecting the algorithm to robustness testing, we further employed simulated data sub-sampled at differing levels of case detection to assess the algorithm's performance and sensitivity to surveillance quality. RESULTS: Our tool demonstrated clear epidemiological transitions in Mexico and Brazil: most states progressed rapidly towards elimination, but a few regressed due to incursions and control lapses. In 2015, dog-mediated rabies continued to circulate in the poorest states, with foci remaining in only 1 of 32 states in Mexico, and 2 of 27 in Brazil, posing incursion risks to the wider region. The classification tool was robust in determining epidemiological status irrespective of most levels of surveillance quality. In endemic settings, surveillance would need to detect less than 2.5% of all circulating cases to result in misclassification, whereas in settings where incursions become the main source of cases the threshold detection level for correct classification should not be less than 5%. CONCLUSION: Our tool provides guidance on how to progress effectively towards elimination targets and tailor strategies to local epidemiological situations, while revealing insights into rabies dynamics. Post-campaign assessments of dog vaccination coverage in endemic states, and enhanced surveillance to verify and maintain freedom in states threatened by incursions were identified as priorities to catalyze progress towards elimination. Our finding suggests genomic surveillance should become increasingly valuable during the endgame for discriminating circulating variants and pinpointing sources of incursions.

Development and Validation of a Controlled Pressure Method Test Protocol for Vapor Intrusion Pathway Assessment.

Controlled pressure method (CPM) testing is a building-specific diagnostic tool for vapor intrusion (VI) pathway assessment which offers advantages over traditional pathway assessment approaches. By manipulating the building pressure conditions, the CPM creates the worst-case VI impact and provides rapid insight into the type of vapor source(s). The primary barrier to general acceptance and use of this tool is the need for definitive guidance on test design parameters, such as the indoor-outdoor pressure difference (or exhaust fan flow rate), CPM test duration, exhaust fan location, and air sampling location(s) and conditions. This study focused on a systematic evaluation of each of these factors, which then led to the formulation of proposed CPM testing guidelines. The results suggest that CPM tests should be conducted with both negative and positive pressure indoor-outdoor differentials of about 10-15 Pa, and the tests should last for at least nine indoor air exchanges for negative pressure difference testing and four indoor air exchanges for positive pressure difference testing. Although exhaust fan intake sampling is sufficient to provide critical information to assess impacts during negative pressure testing, adding room-specific indoor air sampling to both negative and positive pressure difference testing can provide insight into vapor entry locations and indoor source contributions.

Virus-virus interactions impact the population dynamics of influenza and the common cold.

The human respiratory tract hosts a diverse community of cocirculating viruses that are responsible for acute respiratory infections. This shared niche provides the opportunity for virus-virus interactions which have the potential to affect individual infection risks and in turn influence dynamics of infection at population scales. However, quantitative evidence for interactions has lacked suitable data and appropriate analytical tools. Here, we expose and quantify interactions among respiratory viruses using bespoke analyses of infection time series at the population scale and coinfections at the individual host scale. We analyzed diagnostic data from 44,230 cases of respiratory illness that were tested for 11 taxonomically broad groups of respiratory viruses over 9 y. Key to our analyses was accounting for alternative drivers of correlated infection frequency, such as age and seasonal dependencies in infection risk, allowing us to obtain strong support for the existence of negative interactions between influenza and noninfluenza viruses and positive interactions among noninfluenza viruses. In mathematical simulations that mimic 2-pathogen dynamics, we show that transient immune-mediated interference can cause a relatively ubiquitous common cold-like virus to diminish during peak activity of a seasonal virus, supporting the potential role of innate immunity in driving the asynchronous circulation of influenza A and rhinovirus. These findings have important implications for understanding the linked epidemiological dynamics of viral respiratory infections, an important step towards improved accuracy of disease forecasting models and evaluation of disease control interventions.

Estimating the Size of Dog Populations in Tanzania to Inform Rabies Control.

Estimates of dog population sizes are a prerequisite for delivering effective canine rabies control. However, dog population sizes are generally unknown in most rabies-endemic areas. Several approaches have been used to estimate dog populations but without rigorous evaluation. We compare post-vaccination transects, household surveys, and school-based surveys to determine which most precisely estimates dog population sizes. These methods were implemented across 28 districts in southeast Tanzania, in conjunction with mass dog vaccinations, covering a range of settings, livelihoods, and religious backgrounds. Transects were the most precise method, revealing highly variable patterns of dog ownership, with human/dog ratios ranging from 12.4:1 to 181.3:1 across districts. Both household and school-based surveys generated imprecise and, sometimes, inaccurate estimates, due to small sample sizes in relation to the heterogeneity in patterns of dog ownership. Transect data were subsequently used to develop a predictive model for estimating dog populations in districts lacking transect data. We predicted a dog population of 2,316,000 (95% CI 1,573,000⁻3,122,000) in Tanzania and an average human/dog ratio of 20.7:1. Our modelling approach has the potential to be applied to predicting dog population sizes in other areas where mass dog vaccinations are planned, given census and livelihood data. Furthermore, we recommend post-vaccination transects as a rapid and effective method to refine dog population estimates across large geographic areas and to guide dog vaccination programmes in settings with mostly free roaming dog populations.