A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.

An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well-being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.

Spin Fluctuations from Hertz to Terahertz on a Triangular Lattice.

The temporal magnetic correlations of the triangular-lattice antiferromagnet NiGa_{2}S_{4} are examined through 13 decades (10^{-13}-1 sec) using ultrahigh-resolution inelastic neutron scattering, muon spin relaxation, and ac and nonlinear susceptibility measurements. Unlike the short-ranged spatial correlations, the temperature dependence of the temporal correlations show distinct anomalies. The spin fluctuation rate decreases precipitously upon cooling towards T^{*}=8.5 K, but fluctuations on the microsecond time scale then persist in an anomalous dynamical regime for 4 K

Spin disorder on a triangular lattice.

As liquids crystallize into solids on cooling, spins in magnets generally form periodic order. However, three decades ago, it was theoretically proposed that spins on a triangular lattice form a liquidlike disordered state at low temperatures. Whether or not a spin liquid is stabilized by geometrical frustration has remained an active point of inquiry ever since. Our thermodynamic and neutron measurements on NiGa2S4, a rare example of a two-dimensional triangular lattice antiferromagnet, demonstrate that geometrical frustration stabilizes a low-temperature spin-disordered state with coherence beyond the two-spin correlation length. Spin liquid formation may be an origin of such behavior.