The role of genotypic and climatic variation at the range edge: A case study in winegrapes.

PREMISE: Changes in habitat suitability due to climate change are causing range shifts, with new habitat potentially available at cold range edges. We must predict these range shifts, but forecasters have limited knowledge of how genetic differences in plant physiological tolerances influence range shifts. Here, we focus on a major determinant of species ranges-physiological tolerance to extreme cold-to ask how warming over recent decades and genetic variation shape expansion across complex landscapes. METHODS: We examined how genotypes vary in maximum cold tolerance from 9 years of cold hardiness data across 18 genotypes from 13 sites, using winegrapes (Vitis vinifera subsp. vinifera) as a case study. Combining a Bayesian hierarchical dose-response model with gridded climate data, we then project changes in climatic suitability near winegrapes' current cold range-edge between 1949 and 2016. RESULTS: Plants increased maximum cold hardiness non-linearly with decreasing air temperature (maximum cold hardiness: -23.6°C), but with substantial (by 2°C) variation across genotypes. Our results suggest, since the 1980s, decreasing freeze injury risk has made conditions more favorable for all genotypes at the cold range-edge, but conditions remained more favorable for more cold hardy genotypes and in warmer areas. There was substantial spatial variation in habitat suitability, with the majority of suitably warm habitat located in a narrow north-south oriented strip. CONCLUSIONS: We highlight the importance of genotypic differences in physiological tolerances when assessing range shift potential with climate change. Habitat improvements were unevenly distributed over the spatially complex landscape, though, emphasizing the importance of dispersal in range expansion.

Recent increases in assemblage rarity are linked to increasing local immigration.

As pressures on biodiversity increase, a better understanding of how assemblages are responding is needed. Because rare species, defined here as those that have locally low abundances, make up a high proportion of assemblage species lists, understanding how the number of rare species within assemblages is changing will help elucidate patterns of recent biodiversity change. Here, we show that the number of rare species within assemblages is increasing, on average, across systems. This increase could arise in two ways: species already present in the assemblage decreasing in abundance but with no increase in extinctions, or additional species entering the assemblage in low numbers associated with an increase in immigration. The positive relationship between change in rarity and change in species richness provides evidence for the second explanation, i.e. higher net immigration than extinction among the rare species. These measurable changes in the structure of assemblages in the recent past underline the need to use multiple biodiversity metrics to understand biodiversity change.

Shade as enrichment: testing preferences for shelter in two model fish species.

We compared preferences shown by zebrafish Danio rerio and three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus for shelter provided by above-tank shade and artificial plants. Zebrafish showed no preference for either shelter, whereas sticklebacks showed a preference for both shelter types over open areas and for shade over plants. Our results suggest shade may be used as enrichment for captive fish and re-emphasise the importance of species-specific welfare considerations.

Gradients in predation risk in a tropical river system.

The importance of predation risk as a key driver of evolutionary change is exemplified by the Northern Range in Trinidad, where research on guppies living in multiple parallel streams has provided invaluable insights into the process of evolution by natural selection. Although Trinidadian guppies are now a textbook example of evolution in action, studies have generally categorized predation as a dichotomous variable, representing high or low risk. Yet, ecologists appreciate that community structure and the attendant predation risk vary substantially over space and time. Here, we use data from a longitudinal study of fish assemblages at 16 different sites in the Northern Range to quantify temporal and spatial variation in predation risk. Specifically we ask: 1) Is there evidence for a gradient in predation risk? 2) Does the ranking of sites (by risk) change with the definition of the predator community (in terms of species composition and abundance currency), and 3) Are site rankings consistent over time? We find compelling evidence that sites lie along a continuum of risk. However, site rankings along this gradient depend on how predation is quantified in terms of the species considered to be predators and the abundance currency is used. Nonetheless, for a given categorization and currency, rankings are relatively consistent over time. Our study suggests that consideration of predation gradients will lead to a more nuanced understanding of the role of predation risk in behavioral and evolutionary ecology. It also emphasizes the need to justify and report the definition of predation risk being used.

Dominance structure of assemblages is regulated over a period of rapid environmental change.

Ecological assemblages are inherently uneven, with numerically dominant species contributing disproportionately to ecosystem services. Marked biodiversity change due to growing pressures on the world's ecosystems is now well documented. However, the hypothesis that dominant species are becoming relatively more abundant has not been tested. We examined the prediction that the dominance structure of contemporary communities is shifting, using a meta-analysis of 110 assemblage timeseries. Changes in relative and absolute dominance were evaluated with mixed and cyclic-shift permutation models. Our analysis uncovered no evidence of a systematic change in either form of dominance, but established that relative dominance is preserved even when assemblage size (total N) changes. This suggests that dominance structure is regulated alongside richness and assemblage size, and highlights the importance of investigating multiple components of assemblage diversity when evaluating ecosystem responses to environmental drivers.