Towards precision dosing of vancomycin in critically ill patients: an evaluation of the predictive performance of pharmacometric models in ICU patients.

OBJECTIVES: Vancomycin dose recommendations depend on population pharmacokinetic models. These models have not been adequately assessed in critically ill patients, who exhibit large pharmacokinetic variability. This study evaluated model predictive performance in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and identified factors influencing model performance. METHODS: Retrospective data from ICU adult patients administered vancomycin were used to evaluate model performance to predict serum concentrations a priori (no observed concentrations included) or with Bayesian forecasting (using concentration data). Predictive performance was determined using relative bias (rBias, bias) and relative root mean squared error (rRMSE, precision). Models were considered clinically acceptable if rBias was between ±20% and 95% confidence intervals included zero. Models were compared with rRMSE; no threshold was used. The influence of clinical factors on model performance was assessed with multiple linear regression. RESULTS: Data from 82 patients were used to evaluate 12 vancomycin models. The Goti model was the only clinically acceptable model with both a priori (rBias 3.4%) and Bayesian forecasting (rBias 1.5%) approaches. Bayesian forecasting was superior to a priori prediction, improving with the use of more recent concentrations. Four models were clinically acceptable with Bayesian forecasting. Renal replacement therapy status (p < 0.001) and sex (p = 0.007) significantly influenced the performance of the Goti model. CONCLUSIONS: The Goti, Llopis and Roberts models are clinically appropriate to inform vancomycin dosing in critically ill patients. Implementing the Goti model in dose prediction software could streamline dosing across both ICU and non-ICU patients, considering it is also the most accurate model in non-ICU patients.

Bilirubin concentration is positively associated with haemoglobin concentration and inversely associated with albumin to creatinine ratio among Indigenous Australians: eGFR Study.

Low serum bilirubin concentrations are reported to be strongly associated with cardio-metabolic disease, but this relationship has not been reported among Indigenous Australian people who are known to be at high risk for diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD). HYPOTHESIS: serum bilirubin will be negatively associated with markers of chronic disease, including CKD and anaemia among Indigenous Australians. METHOD: A cross-sectional analysis of 594 adult Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (TSI) people in good health or with diabetes and markers of CKD. Measures included urine albumin: creatinine ratio (ACR), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), haemoglobin (Hb) and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). Diabetes was defined by medical history, medications or HbA1c≥6.5% or ≥48mmol/mol. Anaemia was defined as Hb<130g/L or <120g/L in males and females respectively. A multivariate regression analysis examining factors independently associated with log-bilirubin was performed. RESULTS: Participants mean (SD) age was 45.1 (14.5) years, and included 62.5% females, 71.7% Aboriginal, 41.1% with diabetes, 16.7% with anaemia, 41% with ACR>3mg/mmol and 18.2% with eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2. Median bilirubin concentration was lower in females than males (6 v 8µmol/L, p<0.001) and in Aboriginal than TSI participants (6 v 9.5µmol/L, p<0.001). Six factors explained 35% of the variance of log-bilirubin; Hb and cholesterol (both positively related) and ACR, triglycerides, Aboriginal ethnicity and female gender (all inversely related). CONCLUSION: Serum bilirubin concentrations were positively associated with Hb and total cholesterol, and inversely associated with ACR. Further research to determine reasons explaining lower bilirubin concentrations among Aboriginal compared with TSI participants are needed.

Performance of formulas for estimating glomerular filtration rate in Indigenous Australians with and without Type 2 diabetes: the eGFR Study.

AIMS: It has been proposed that the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula estimates glomerular filtration rate more accurately than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. With the very high incidence of diabetes and end-stage kidney disease in Indigenous Australians, accurate estimation of glomerular filtration rate is vital in early detection of kidney disease. We aimed to assess the performance of the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration, Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas in Indigenous Australians with and without diabetes. METHODS: Indigenous Australians with (n = 224) or without (n = 340) Type 2 diabetes had a reference glomerular filtration rate measure using plasma disappearance of iohexol (measured glomerular filtration rate) over 4 h. Serum creatinine was measured by an enzymatic method. Performance was assessed by bias (measured glomerular filtration rate - estimated glomerular filtration rate) and accuracy (percentage of estimated glomerular filtration rate within 30% of measured glomerular filtration rate). RESULTS: The median measured glomerular filtration rate (interquartile range) in participants with or without diabetes was 97 (68-119) and 108 (90-122) ml min(-1)  1.73 m(-2) , respectively. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula had smaller bias and greater accuracy than the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas overall, for participants both with and without diabetes. However, for estimated glomerular filtration rate > 90 ml min(-1)  1.73 m(-2) , the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula had greater bias in participants with diabetes, underestimating measured glomerular filtration rate by 7.4 vs. 1.0 ml min(-1)  1.73 m(-2) in those without diabetes. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula was less accurate across the whole range of estimated glomerular filtration rates in participants with vs. those without diabetes (87.1% vs. 93.3%). CONCLUSIONS: The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula outperforms the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Cockcroft-Gault formulas overall in Indigenous Australians with and without diabetes. However, the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula has greater bias in people with diabetes compared with those without diabetes, especially in those with normal renal function.