A One Health real-time surveillance system for nowcasting Campylobacter gastrointestinal illness outbreaks, Norway, week 30 2010 to week 11 2022.

BackgroundCampylobacter is a leading cause of food and waterborne illness. Monitoring and modelling Campylobacter at chicken broiler farms, combined with weather pattern surveillance, can aid nowcasting of human gastrointestinal (GI) illness outbreaks. Near real-time sharing of data and model results with health authorities can help increase potential outbreak responsiveness.AimsTo leverage data on weather and Campylobacter on broiler farms to build a risk model for possible human Campylobacter outbreaks and to communicate risk assessments with health authorities.MethodsWe developed a spatio-temporal random effects model for weekly GI illness consultations in Norwegian municipalities with Campylobacter monitoring and weather data from week 30 2010 to 11 2022 to give 1-week nowcasts of GI illness outbreaks. The approach combined a municipality random effects baseline model for seasonally-adjusted GI illness with a second model for peak deviations from that baseline. Model results are communicated to national and local stakeholders through an interactive website: Sykdomspulsen One Health.ResultsLagged temperature and precipitation covariates, as well as 2-week-lagged positive Campylobacter sampling in broilers, were associated with higher levels of GI consultations. Significant inter-municipality variability in outbreak nowcasts were observed.ConclusionsCampylobacter surveillance in broilers can be useful in GI illness outbreak nowcasting. Surveillance of Campylobacter along potential pathways from the environment to illness such as via water system monitoring may improve nowcasting. A One Health system that communicates near real-time surveillance data and nowcast changes in risk to health professionals facilitates the prevention of Campylobacter outbreaks and reduces impact on human health.

Estimation of the probability of freedom from bovine virus diarrhoea virus in Norway using scenario tree modelling.

Disease caused by Bovine virus diarrhoea virus (BVDV) is notifiable in Norway. An eradication programme started in 1992. The number of herds with restrictions decreased from 2950 in 1994 to zero at the end of 2006. From 2007, the aim of the programme has been surveillance in order to document freedom from the infection. To estimate the probability of freedom from BVDV infection in the Norwegian cattle population by the end of 2011, a scenario tree model of the surveillance program during the years 2007-2011 was used. Three surveillance system components (SSCs) were included in the model: dairy, beef suckler sampled at farms (2007-2010) and beef suckler sampled at slaughterhouses (2011). The design prevalence was set to 0.2% at herd level and to 30% at within-herd level for the whole cattle population. The median probability of freedom from BVDV in Norway at the end of 2011 was 0.996; (0.995-0.997, credibility interval). The results from the scenario tree model support that the Norwegian cattle population is free from BVDV. The highest estimate of the annual sensitivity for the beef suckling SSCs originated from the surveillance at the slaughterhouses in 2011. The change to sampling at the slaughterhouse level further increased the sensitivity of the surveillance.

Effect of climate and farm environment on Campylobacter spp. colonisation in Norwegian broiler flocks.

Campylobacteriosis is the most frequently reported zoonosis in the EU. A recent report states that between 50% and 80% of the human campylobacteriosis cases could be attributed to broiler as a reservoir. The current study was conducted to investigate associations between the presence of Campylobacter spp. in Norwegian broiler flocks and factors related to the climate and the farm environment. Data from 18,488 broiler flocks from 623 different farms during 2002-2007 were included in the study. A logistic regression analysis was conducted where Campylobacter spp. status of a broiler flock at the time of slaughter was defined as the dependent variable and farm was modelled as a random effect. The following factors were found to increase the probability for a broiler flock to test positive for Campylobacter spp.: daily mean temperature above 6°C during the rearing period, private water supply, presence of other livestock farms within a distance of 2 km, presence of other broiler farms within a distance of 4 km with flocks positive for Campylobacter spp. within 30 days prior to slaughter, heavy rainfall 11-30 days prior to slaughter, region and year. Daily mean temperature below 0°C reduced the probability. The study emphasises the importance of the farm environment and the climate for the occurrence of Campylobacter spp. in broiler flocks. The farm environment is probably a part of the Campylobacter spp. pathway into and between broiler flocks where farmyard run-off and humans or flies entering the houses might constitute vehicles transporting the organism. Fly activity is temperature-driven and flies might be a part of the explanation of the increased risk for Campylobacter spp. related to increased temperature demonstrated in the study.

Analysis of simultaneous space-time clusters of Campylobacter spp. in humans and in broiler flocks using a multiple dataset approach.

BACKGROUND: Campylobacteriosis is the most frequently reported zoonosis in the EU and the epidemiology of sporadic campylobacteriosis, especially the routes of transmission, is to a great extent unclear. Poultry easily become colonised with Campylobacter spp., being symptom-less intestinal carriers. Earlier it was estimated that internationally between 50% and 80% of the cases could be attributed to chicken as a reservoir. In a Norwegian surveillance programme all broiler flocks under 50 days of age were tested for Campylobacter spp. The aim of the current study was to identify simultaneous local space-time clusters each year from 2002 to 2007 for human cases of campylobacteriosis and for broiler flocks testing positive for Campylobacter spp. using a multivariate spatial scan statistic method. A cluster occurring simultaneously in humans and broilers could indicate the presence of common factors associated with the dissemination of Campylobacter spp. for both humans and broilers. RESULTS: Local space-time clusters of humans and broilers positive for Campylobacter spp. occurring simultaneously were identified in all investigated years. All clusters but one were identified from May to August. Some municipalities were included in clusters all years. CONCLUSIONS: The simultaneous occurrence of clusters of humans and broilers positive for Campylobacter spp. combined with the knowledge that poultry meat has a nation-wide distribution indicates that campylobacteriosis cases might also be caused by other risk factors than consumption and handling of poultry meat.Broiler farms that are positive could contaminate the environment with further spread to new broiler farms or to humans living in the area and local environmental factors, such as climate, might influence the spread of Campylobacter spp. in an area. Further studies to clarify the role of such factors are needed.

Experimental infection in calves with a specific subtype of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 of bovine origin.

BACKGROUND: In Sweden, a particular subtype of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli (VTEC) O157:H7, originally defined as being of phage type 4, and carrying two vtx2 genes, has been found to cause the majority of reported human infections during the past 15 years, including both sporadic cases and outbreaks. One plausible explanation for this could be that this particular subtype is better adapted to colonise cattle, and thereby may be excreted in greater concentrations and for longer periods than other VTEC O157:H7 subtypes. METHODS: In an experimental study, 4 calves were inoculated with 109 colony forming units (cfu) of strain CCUG 53931, representative of the subtype VTEC O157:H7 (PT4;vtx2;vtx2c). Two un-inoculated calves were co-housed with the inoculated calves. Initially, the VTEC O157:H7 strain had been isolated from a dairy herd with naturally occurring infection and the farm had previously also been linked to human infection with the same strain. Faecal samples were collected over up to a 2-month period and analysed for VTEC O157 by immuno-magnetic separation (IMS), and IMS positive samples were further analysed by direct plating to elucidate the shedding pattern. Samples were also collected from the pharynx. RESULTS: All inoculated calves proved culture-positive in faeces within 24 hours after inoculation and the un-inoculated calves similarly on days 1 and 3 post-inoculation. One calf was persistently culture-positive for 43 days; in the remainder, the VTEC O157:H7 count in faeces decreased over the first 2 weeks. All pharyngeal samples were culture-negative for VTEC O157:H7. CONCLUSION: This study contributes with information concerning the dynamics of a specific subtype of VTEC O157:H7 colonisation in dairy calves. This subtype, VTEC O157:H7 (PT4;vtx2;vtx2c), is frequently isolated from Swedish cattle and has also been found to cause the majority of reported human infections in Sweden during the past 15 years. In most calves, inoculated with a representative strain of this specific subtype, the numbers of shed bacteria declined over the first two weeks. One calf could possibly be classified as a high-shedder, excreting high levels of the bacterium for a prolonged period.