Mortality among homeless people in France, 2008-10.

BACKGROUND: Studies in various countries have shown that homeless people have high mortality levels. The aims of this study concerning the French population were to investigate mortality among the homeless and to study their causes of death in comparison to those of the general population. METHODS: A representative sample of 1145 homeless deaths registered by an association was matched to the national database of medical causes of death using common descriptive variables. Log-binomial regression was used to compare mortality among the homeless to that of the general population. Multiple imputation was used to manage missing causes of deaths. RESULTS: Out of the 1145 registered homeless deaths, 693 were matched to the causes of death database. Homeless deaths were young (average age: 49). Overall, homeless deaths were slightly more frequent during winter. Among all deaths, the probability of being homeless was higher when dying from hypothermia (RR = 6.4), alcohol-related deaths (RR = 1.7), mental disorders, diseases of the digestive and circulatory systems, and undetermined causes (RR from 1.5 to 3.7). CONCLUSION: The homeless died at 49 years old on average compared with 77 in the general population in 2008-10. The health of homeless people should be considered not only in winter periods or in terms of alcohol- or cold-related conditions. This study also highlights the need for more precise data to estimate the mortality risks of the homeless in France.

Impact of unemployment variations on suicide mortality in Western European countries (2000-2010).

BACKGROUND: A scientific debate is currently taking place on whether the 2008 economic crisis caused an increase in suicide rates. Our main objective was to assess the impact of unemployment rate on suicide rate in Western European countries between 2000 and 2010. We then tried to estimate the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment during the 2008-2010 economic crisis. METHODS: The yearly suicide rates were modelled using a quasi-Poisson model, controlling for sex, age, country and a linear time trend. For each country, the unemployment-suicide association was assessed, and the excess number of suicides attributable to the increase of unemployment was estimated. Sensitivity analyses were performed, notably in order to evaluate whether the unemployment-suicide association found was biased by a confounding context effect ('crisis effect'). RESULTS: A significant 0.3% overall increase in suicide rate for a 10% increase in unemployment rate (95% CI 0.1% to 0.5%) was highlighted. This association was significant in three countries: 0.7% (95% CI 0.0% to 1.4%) in the Netherlands, 1.0% (95% CI 0.2% to 1.8%) in the UK and 1.9% (95% CI 0.8% to 2.9%) in France, with a significant excess number of suicides attributable to unemployment variations between 2008 and 2010 (respectively 57, 456 and 564). The association was modified inconsistently when adding a 'crisis effect' into the model. CONCLUSIONS: Unemployment and suicide rates are globally statistically associated in the investigated countries. However, this association is weak, and its amplitude and sensitivity to the 'crisis effect' vary across countries. This inconsistency provides arguments against its causal interpretation.

Estimating the number of homeless deaths in France, 2008-2010.

BACKGROUND: The homeless population of France has increased by 50% over the last 10 years. Studies have shown that homelessness is associated with a high risk of premature death. The aim of this study was to estimate the number of homeless deaths in France between 2008 and 2010, using a reproducible method. METHODS: We used the capture-recapture method to estimate the number of homeless deaths in France using two independent sources. An associative register of homeless deaths was matched with the national exhaustive database of the medical causes of death, using several matching approaches based on various combinations of the following variables: gender, age, place of death, date of death. RESULTS: The estimated number of homeless deaths between 2008 and 2010 was 6730 (95% CI: [4381-9079]), a number greatly underestimated by the two sources considered separately (less than 20%). CONCLUSIONS: In the absence of a register of the homeless deaths, the capture-recapture method provides an order of magnitude for evaluation of the resources that may be allocated by policy makers to manage the issue. Based on common and routinely produced databases, this estimate may therefore be used to monitor the mortality of the homeless population. Further studies about homeless mortality, particularly on the lead causes of deaths, are needed to manage this issue and to implement strategy to decrease the number of homeless deaths.

Automated comparison of last hospital main diagnosis and underlying cause of death ICD10 codes, France, 2008-2009.

BACKGROUND: In the age of big data in healthcare, automated comparison of medical diagnoses in large scale databases is a key issue. Our objectives were: 1) to formally define and identify cases of independence between last hospitalization main diagnosis (MD) and death registry underlying cause of death (UCD) for deceased subjects hospitalized in their last year of life; 2) to study their distribution according to socio-demographic and medico-administrative variables; 3) to discuss the interest of this method in the specific context of hospital quality of care assessment. METHODS: 1) Elaboration of an algorithm comparing MD and UCD, relying on Iris, a coding system based on international standards. 2) Application to 421,460 beneficiaries of the general health insurance regime (which covers 70% of French population) hospitalized and deceased in 2008-2009. RESULTS: 1) Independence, was defined as MD and UCD belonging to different trains of events leading to death 2) Among the deaths analyzed automatically (91.7%), 8.5% of in-hospital deaths and 19.5% of out-of-hospital deaths were classified as independent. Independence was more frequent in elder patients, as well as when the discharge-death time interval grew (14.3% when death occurred within 30 days after discharge and 27.7% within 6 to 12 months) and for UCDs other than neoplasms. CONCLUSION: Our algorithm can identify cases where death can be considered independent from the pathology treated in hospital. Excluding these deaths from the ones allocated to the hospitalization process could contribute to improve post-hospital mortality indicators. More generally, this method has the potential of being developed and used for other diagnoses comparisons across time periods or databases.

Mortality associated with systemic lupus erythematosus in France assessed by multiple-cause-of-death analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the mortality profile of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients in France using multiple-cause-of-death analysis. METHODS: Data were collected between 2000 and 2009 in the French Epidemiological Center for the Medical Causes of Death database, and death certificates issued upon the death of an adult for whom SLE was an underlying cause of death (UCD) or a non-underlying cause of death (NUCD) were evaluated using multiple-cause-of-death analysis. Sex, age, sex ratio, standardized mortality rates, as well as frequency of the various causes of death were assessed, at both a national and a regional level. For the main causes of death, the observed number of deaths in relation to the expected number of deaths (O:E ratio) (standardized for age and sex) was calculated. RESULTS: During the study period, 1,593 deaths related to SLE were identified. The mean ± SD age at death was 63.5 ± 18.4 years and the sex ratio (female:male) was 3.5. The mean standardized mortality rate was 3.2 per 1 million people (range 2.7-4.1). When SLE was the UCD (n = 637), the main NUCDs were cardiovascular diseases (49.5%), infectious diseases (24.5%), and renal failure (23.2%). When SLE was an NUCD (n = 956), the most common UCDs were cardiovascular diseases (35.7%), neoplasms (13.9%), and infectious diseases (10.3%). The overall O:E ratio was >1 for infectious and cardiovascular diseases and renal failure (especially among people <40 years of age for the latter 2 causes), but was <1 for neoplasms. CONCLUSION: Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death associated with SLE in France.

The timing of introduction of pharmaceutical innovations in seven European countries.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: Differences in the performance of medical care may be due to variation in the introduction and diffusion of medical innovations. The objective of this paper is to compare seven European countries (United Kingdom, the Netherlands, West Germany, France, Spain, Estonia and Sweden) with regard to the year of introduction of six specific pharmaceutical innovations (antiretroviral drugs, cimetidine, tamoxifen, cisplatin, oxalaplatin and cyclosporin) that may have had important population health impacts. METHODS: We collected information on introduction and further diffusion of drugs using searches in the national and international literature, and questionnaires to national informants. We combined various sources of information, both official years of registration and other indicators of introduction (clinical trials, guidelines, evaluation reports, sales statistics). RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The total length of the period between first and last introduction varied between 8 years for antiretroviral drugs and 22 years for cisplatin. Introduction in Estonia was generally delayed until the 1990s. The average time lags were smallest in France (2.2 years), United Kingdom (2.8 years) and the Netherlands (3.5 years). Similar rank orders were seen for year of registration suggesting that introduction lags are not only explained by differences in the process of registration. We discuss possible reasons for these between-country differences and implications for the evaluation of medical care.

Quality comparison of electronic versus paper death certificates in France, 2010.

BACKGROUND: Electronic death certification was established in France in 2007. A methodology based on intrinsic characteristics of death certificates was designed to compare the quality of electronic versus paper death certificates. METHODS: All death certificates from the 2010 French mortality database were included. Three specific quality indicators were considered: (i) amount of information, measured by the number of causes of death coded on the death certificate; (ii) intrinsic consistency, explored by application of the International Classification of Disease (ICD) General Principle, using an international automatic coding system (Iris); (iii) imprecision, measured by proportion of death certificates where the selected underlying cause of death was imprecise. Multivariate models were considered: a truncated Poisson model for indicator (i) and binomial models for indicators (ii) and (iii). Adjustment variables were age, gender, and cause, place, and region of death. RESULTS: 533,977death certificates were analyzed. After adjustment, electronic death certificates contained 19% [17%-20%] more codes than paper death certificates for people deceased under 65 years, and 12% [11%-13%] more codes for people deceased over 65 years. Regarding deceased under and over 65 respectively, the ICD General Principle could be applied 2% [0%-4%] and 6% [5%-7%] more to electronic than to paper death certificates. The proportion of imprecise death certificates was 51% [46%-56%] lower for electronic than for paper death certificates. CONCLUSION: The method proposed to evaluate the quality of death certificates is easily reproducible in countries using an automatic coding system. According to our criteria, electronic death certificates are better completed than paper death certificates. The transition to electronic death certificates is positive in many aspects and should be promoted.

Innovations in health care and mortality trends from five cancers in seven European countries between 1970 and 2005.

OBJECTIVES: Although the contribution of health care to survival from cancer has been studied extensively, much less is known about its contribution to population health. We examine how medical innovations have influenced trends in cause-specific mortality at the national level. METHODS: Based on literature reviews, we selected six innovations with proven effectiveness against cervical cancer, Hodgkin's disease, breast cancer, testicular cancer, and leukaemia. With data on the timing of innovations and cause-specific mortality (1970-2005) from seven European countries we identified associations between innovations and favourable changes in mortality. RESULTS: For none of the five specific cancers, sufficient evidence for an association between introduction of innovations and a positive change in mortality could be found. The highest association was found between the introduction of Tamoxifen and breast cancer mortality. CONCLUSIONS: The lack of evidence of health care effectiveness may be due to gradual improvements in treatment, to effects limited to certain age groups or cancer subtypes, and to contemporaneous changes in cancer incidence. Research on the impact of health care innovations on population health is limited by unreliable data on their introduction.

Empirical comparison study of approximate methods for structure selection in binary graphical models.

Looking for associations among multiple variables is a topical issue in statistics due to the increasing amount of data encountered in biology, medicine, and many other domains involving statistical applications. Graphical models have recently gained popularity for this purpose in the statistical literature. In the binary case, however, exact inference is generally very slow or even intractable because of the form of the so-called log-partition function. In this paper, we review various approximate methods for structure selection in binary graphical models that have recently been proposed in the literature and compare them through an extensive simulation study. We also propose a modification of one existing method, that is shown to achieve good performance and to be generally very fast. We conclude with an application in which we search for associations among causes of death recorded on French death certificates.

Spatial interactions between urban areas and cause-specific mortality differentials in France.

Spatial interactions constitute a challenging but promising approach for investigation of spatial mortality inequalities. Among spatial interactions measures, between-spatial unit migration differentials are a marker of socioeconomic imbalance, but also reflect discrepancies due to other factors. Specifically, this paper asks whether population exchange intensities measure differentials or similarities that are not captured by usual socioeconomic indicators. Urban areas were grouped pairwise by the intensity of connection estimated from a gravity model. The mortality differences for several causes of death were observed to be significantly smaller for strongly connected pairs than for weakly connected pairs even after adjustment on deprivation.

Diverging trends in educational inequalities in cancer mortality between men and women in the 2000s in France.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic inequalities in cancer mortality have been observed in different European countries and the US until the end of the 1990s, with changes over time in the magnitude of these inequalities and contrasted situations between countries. The aim of this study is to estimate relative and absolute educational differences in cancer mortality in France between 1999 and 2007, and to compare these inequalities with those reported during the 1990s. METHODS: Data from a representative sample including 1% of the French population were analysed. Educational differences among people aged 30-74 were quantified with hazard ratios and relative indices of inequality (RII) computed using Cox regression models as well as mortality rate difference and population attributable fraction. RESULTS: In the period 1999-2007, large relative inequalities were found among men for total cancer and smoking and/or alcohol related cancers mortality (lung, head and neck, oesophagus). Among women, educational differences were reported for total cancer, head and neck and uterus cancer mortality. No association was found between education and breast cancer mortality. Slight educational differences in colorectal cancer mortality were observed in men and women. For most frequent cancers, no change was observed in the magnitude of relative inequalities in mortality between the 1990s and the 2000s, although the RII for lung cancer increased both in men and women. Among women, a large increase in absolute inequalities in mortality was observed for all cancers combined, lung, head and neck and colorectal cancer. In contrast, among men, absolute inequalities in mortality decreased for all smoking and/or alcohol related cancers. CONCLUSION: Although social inequalities in cancer mortality are still high among men, an encouraging trend is observed. Among women though, the situation regarding social inequalities is less favourable, mainly due to a health improvement limited to higher educated women. These inequalities may be expected to further increase in future years.

Innovations in medical care and mortality trends from four circulatory diseases between 1970 and 2005.

BACKGROUND: Governments have identified innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical technology as a priority for health policy. Although the contribution of medical care to health has been studied extensively in clinical settings, much less is known about its contribution to population health. We examine how innovations in the management of four circulatory disorders have influenced trends in cause-specific mortality at the population level. METHODS: Based on literature reviews, we selected six medical innovations with proven effectiveness against hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and cerebrovascular disease. We combined data on the timing of these innovations and cause-specific mortality trends (1970-2005) from seven European countries. We sought to identify associations between the introduction of innovations and favourable changes in mortality, using Joinpoint-models based on linear spline regression. RESULTS: For both ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, the timing of medical innovations was associated with improved mortality in four out of five countries and five out of seven countries, respectively, depending on the innovation. This suggests that innovation has impacted positively on mortality at the population level. For hypertension and heart failure, such associations could not be identified. CONCLUSION: Although improvements in cause-specific mortality coincide with the introduction of some innovations, this is not invariably true. This is likely to reflect the incremental effects of many interventions, the time taken for them to be adopted fully and the presence of contemporaneous changes in disease incidence. Research on the impact of medical innovations on population health is limited by unreliable data on their introduction.

Trends in geographic mortality inequalities and their association with population changes in France, 1975-2006.

BACKGROUND: Although some studies have reported that population change is associated with spatial mortality inequalities, few of them have tried to take a dynamic approach to the association. The aim of this study was to explore and interpret the ecological association between the change in cause-specific mortality inequalities and population change over a 30-year period in areas exhibiting different deprivation and urbanization levels in France. METHODS: The French communes were classified by category of demographic change during the period 1962-2006. The changes in standardized mortality ratios were analysed by category over 5 inter-censal periods, taking into account degree of urbanization and deprivation quintile. The magnitude and significance of the associations for various causes of death were estimated using a Generalised Estimating Equation Poisson model. RESULTS: Overall, the change in relative mortality was negatively associated with population growth. For a compound annual population growth rate of 1% in 1990-99, the standardized mortality ratios decreased, on average, by 2.1% (95% confidence interval: -1.45 to -2.72). The association was stronger in urban areas, and reversed in the least deprived areas. The association was stronger and more significant for men, subjects aged less than 65 years and alcohol-related and violent deaths. CONCLUSION: This study highlights the significance of dynamic approaches. Population growth was associated with a decrease in relative mortality level; the direction and strength of the association varied depending on the socio-territorial characteristics. As is the case for English-speaking countries, in France, population growth may be considered a component of current social dynamics that are not measured by usual indicators.

Using 'amenable mortality' as indicator of healthcare effectiveness in international comparisons: results of a validation study.

BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: There is widespread consensus on the need for better indicators of the effectiveness of healthcare. We carried out an analysis of the validity of amenable mortality as an indicator of the effectiveness of healthcare, focusing on the potential use in routine surveillance systems of between-country variations in rates of mortality. We assessed whether the introduction of specific healthcare innovations coincided with declines in mortality from potentially amenable causes in seven European countries. In this paper, we summarise the main results of this study and illustrate them for four conditions. DATA AND METHODS: We identified 14 conditions for which considerable declines in mortality have been observed and for which there is reasonable evidence in the literature of the effectiveness of healthcare interventions to lower mortality. We determined the time at which these interventions were introduced and assessed whether the innovations coincided with favourable changes in the mortality trends from these conditions, measured using Poisson linear spline regression. All the evidence was then presented to a Delphi panel. MAIN RESULTS: The timing of innovation and favourable change in mortality trends coincided for only a few conditions. Other reasons for mortality decline are likely to include diffusion and improved quality of interventions and in incidence of diseases and their risk factors, but there is insufficient evidence to differentiate these at present. For most conditions, a Delphi panel could not reach consensus on the role of current mortality levels as measures of effectiveness of healthcare. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS: Improvements in healthcare probably lowered mortality from many of the conditions that we studied but occurred in a much more diffuse way than we assumed in the study design. Quantification of the contribution of healthcare to mortality requires adequate data on timing of innovation and trends in diffusion and quality and in incidence of disease, none of which are currently available. Given these gaps in knowledge, between-country differences in levels of mortality from amenable conditions should not be used for routine surveillance of healthcare performance. The timing and pace of mortality decline from amenable conditions may provide better indicators of healthcare performance.

Mortality among active-duty male French Armed Forces, 2006-10.

BACKGROUND: In the Armed Forces, knowledge about the causes of deaths is required in order to develop prevention strategies. This study presents the main characteristics of causes of deaths among male active-duty personnel in the French Armed Forces during the 2006-10 period and compares them with the general French male population. METHODS: The data are provided by military public health surveillance. Comparisons of the specific mortality rates (MR) were performed using a Poisson regression. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated to compare mortality with the general French male population. RESULTS: There were 1455 deaths among male active-duty personnel during the study period [MR: 100.9 per 100,000 person-years (PY); 95% confidence interval 95.7-106.1]. The 17-24 age group was characterized by violent deaths: transport accident (MR: 45.9 per 100,000 PY) and suicide (18.8 per 100 000 PY). Overall SMRs show significantly lower MR compared with the French national MR with the exception of SMR for transport accident and suicide in the 17-24 age group. CONCLUSIONS: There is a significantly lower deficit of mortality compared with the French male general population, reflecting a strong healthy worker effect. However, health promotion programmes should continue to put emphasis on transport accident especially among the 17-24 age group.

Mortality differences between the foreign-born and locally-born population in France (2004-2007).

In contrast to the situation in many European countries, the mortality of immigrants in France has been little studied. The main reasons for the lack of studies are based on ethical and ideological considerations. The objective of this study is to explore mortality by country of birth in Metropolitan (i.e. 'mainland') France. Complete mortality data were used to study the relative risks of mortality of the foreign- and locally-born populations by gender, age and cause of death for the period 2004-2007 in Metropolitan France. Analyses were conducted by countries of birth grouped into geographic areas and by the Human Development Index (HDI). The differentials in mortality between foreign-born and locally-born populations were not homogeneous. The figures varied by age (higher foreign-born mortality for the young; lower mortality for migrants aged 15-64 years), gender (female migrants more frequently had higher relative mortality than men migrants), country of birth (Eastern European-born migrants had higher mortality, while those born in Morocco, Central Asia, 'other Asian countries' and America had lower mortality) and cause of death (migrant mortality was higher overall for deaths caused by infectious diseases and diabetes, and lower for violent death and neoplasm). Moreover, mortality relative risks for male, violent deaths and cancer were positively associated with country-of-birth HDI, while female mortality and infectious disease mortality were negatively associated with country-of-birth HDI. Some important caveats have to be considered because the study did not control for individuals socioeconomic position in France, or length of residence in the host country. A strong healthy migrant effect was suggested and its intensity varies with age and gender (which may reflect different reasons for migration). For some specific causes of death, a lifestyle effect seems to explain mortality differentials. The associations between HDI and mortality show that mortality trends are partly related to the educational, sanitary and economic conditions of the country of birth. Further studies would enrich the differential analysis of mortality by country of birth by contributing additional detailed data on socioeconomic and living conditions in the host country as well as in the country of origin.

Impact of the 1998 football World Cup on suicide rates in France: results from the national death registry.

Our objective was to determine whether the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup in 1998 had a short-term impact on the number of suicides in France. Exhaustive individual daily data on suicides from 1979 to 2006 were obtained from the French epidemiological center on the medical causes of death (CepiDC-INSERM; France). These data were analyzed using the seasonal ARIMA model. The overall effect of the World Cup was tested together with potential specific impact on days following the French team games. Between 11th June and 11th July, a significant decline of 95 suicides was observed (-10.3%), this effect being the strongest among men and people aged between 30 and 44. A significant decrease was also observed for the days following French team games (-19.9%). Our results are in favor of an effect of nationwide sport events on suicidal behaviors and are consistent with other studies. Many of the theories explaining the relationship between sports and suicide are related to sense of belongingness and social integration, highlighting the importance of social link reinforcement in suicide prevention.

Trends in death attributed to heart failure over the past two decades in Europe.

AIMS: Little is known regarding temporal trends in mortality attributed to heart failure (HF) from a population perspective. The aim of this study was to assess the mortality related to HF as an underlying cause during the last 20 years in seven European countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: The number of deaths with HF as the underlying cause was collected in seven European states: Germany, Greece, England and Wales, Spain, France, Finland, and Sweden from 1987 to 2008. Disease coding for HF was based on the International Classification of Diseases (ICD 9th and 10th versions). We computed age-standardized death rates (SDRs) per 100 000 inhabitants. Mean age at death from HF was also calculated for the same period. In the seven studied countries, the HF SDR decreased continuously from 54.2 (1987) to 32.6 (2008). Despite differences in the early 1990s, SDRs related to HF seemed to converge, in these seven European countries, to ∼30 deaths per 100 000 population in the near future, for both men and women. During the study period, the mean age at death increased from 80.0 to 82.7 years. Half of the deaths from HF occurred in hospital, without change over time. CONCLUSION: There has been a 40% reduction of the SDR due to HF in seven European countries during two decades and a concomitant increase in the mean age at death from HF. We hypothesize that these results may be related to a better management of chronic and acute HF patients over the past 20 years.