Stopping anticoagulation for isolated or incidental pulmonary embolism: the STOPAPE RCT protocol.

Research question: Is withholding anticoagulation for patients with isolated or incidental subsegmental pulmonary embolism clinically and cost-effective compared with full anticoagulation for 3 months? Background: There has been an increase in the diagnosis of subsegmental pulmonary embolism since the advent of computed tomography pulmonary angiogram to investigate patients with suspected pulmonary embolism. Subsegmental pulmonary embolism is not often detectable with older nuclear medicine-based diagnostic imaging for ventilation/perfusion mismatch. The case fatality of pulmonary embolism has reduced as subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnoses from computed tomography pulmonary angiogram have increased. There is growing equipoise about the optimal treatment for patients with subsegmental pulmonary embolism, given that full anticoagulation has significant risks of bleeding and subsegmental pulmonary embolism was not often diagnosed previously with ventilation/perfusion scanning and therefore most likely left predominantly untreated prior to the introduction of computed tomography pulmonary angiogram scanning. Objectives: Determine whether withholding anticoagulation for isolated or incidental subsegmental pulmonary embolism (i.e. subsegmental pulmonary embolism with no coexisting deep-vein thrombosis) reduces the harms of recurrent thromboembolism and major bleeding compared with 3 months of full anticoagulation at 3, 6 and 12 months. Determine the rate of complications of anticoagulation therapy (predominantly bleeding) in patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism. Determine whether not treating isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism is acceptable to clinicians and patients. Determine the reclassification rate of subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnoses made by general reporting radiologists when reviewed by specialist respiratory radiologists and develop a set of rules to improve general radiologists' diagnoses of subsegmental pulmonary embolism. Assess cost-effectiveness of not treating patients with isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism with anticoagulation, taking a health service perspective. Methods: Prospective individually randomised open controlled trial with blinded end-point committee assessment for outcomes, powered for non-inferiority for recurrent venous thromboembolism and for superiority for bleeding events. An internal pilot phase is included for feasibility and acceptability of no anticoagulation. We planned to recruit 1466 patients from at least 50 acute hospital sites. Allowing for a dropout rate of 15%, this would have given us 90% power to detect a reduction in major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding from 7.3% in the anticoagulation arm to 3% in the intervention arm. We were powered to determine that a strategy of no anticoagulation was non-inferior to anticoagulation with an upper margin of a 2.3% increase in recurrent venous thromboembolism from an expected rate of 2% in those who receive full anticoagulation. We also planned to undertake a study comparing acute reporting radiologists' diagnoses of subsegmental pulmonary embolism from all computed tomography pulmonary angiograms with specialist respiratory radiologists. This would have allowed us to determine safety in the pilot study (i.e. patients with pulmonary embolism that was in fact larger than subsegmental would have been identified) and develop guidance for subsegmental pulmonary embolism diagnosis for general radiologists. Patients with lived experience of thrombosis contributed to all aspects of the trial design and were part of the Trial Management Group. Progress of study: The STOPAPE trial was stopped prematurely due to a low recruitment rate in the wake of the COVID pandemic and prioritisation of recovery of the National Institute for Health and Care Research research portfolio. There are no outcome data available for this trial. Separate NIHR Library publications will detail the linked qualitative study examining the views of patients and clinicians around withholding anticoagulation for isolated subsegmental pulmonary embolism as well as presenting all collected data of recruited patients. Funding: This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme as award number NIHR128073. A plain language summary of this research article is available on the NIHR Journals Library Website https://doi.org/10.3310/HRCW7937.

Pulmonary embolism is a potentially serious condition, whereby blood clots cause a blockage of the blood supply to the lungs. The diagnosis of pulmonary embolism is made with a scan of the lungs, by showing areas where blood cannot get through the vessels easily due to blood clots. The treatment of pulmonary embolism includes anticoagulant medication ('blood thinners') that is taken over months and includes warfarin, an injectable form of heparin and directly acting oral anticoagulants. These medications work by preventing new clots from forming while the body's own mechanisms break down the clots. As the scanning technology for pulmonary embolism has become more sensitive, smaller clots are being diagnosed. However, small pulmonary embolisms may not cause any symptoms and may be found incidentally on scans performed for other reasons. In these situations, it is unclear whether treatment is required for the pulmonary embolism. These clots in smaller blood vessels away from the centre of the lungs (subsegmental pulmonary embolism) may be removed by the body's own mechanisms for dissolving clots without needing medications. Anticoagulant medication can cause side effects in some patients such as bleeding. For the anticoagulant medication to be appropriate in these smaller pulmonary embolisms, the benefits from preventing future blood clots (pulmonary embolism and deep-vein thrombosis) would need to outweigh the potential risks from the medication side effects. The STOPAPE study aimed to answer this question by testing whether we can safely withhold anticoagulation from patients diagnosed with subsegmental pulmonary embolism. Although we aimed to enrol 1466 patients in the trial with half getting usual care of anticoagulation and half getting no anticoagulation, we could not recruit patients quickly enough to the trial and, as a result, we could not continue with the STOPAPE study. This study protocol is published to help future research teams that wish to answer this research question.

Lee Silverman voice treatment versus NHS speech and language therapy versus control for dysarthria in people with Parkinson's disease (PD COMM): pragmatic, UK based, multicentre, three arm, parallel group, unblinded, randomised controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the clinical effectiveness of two speech and language therapy approaches versus no speech and language therapy for dysarthria in people with Parkinson's disease. DESIGN: Pragmatic, UK based, multicentre, three arm, parallel group, unblinded, randomised controlled trial. SETTING: The speech and language therapy interventions were delivered in outpatient or home settings between 26 September 2016 and 16 March 2020. PARTICIPANTS: 388 people with Parkinson's disease and dysarthria. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomly assigned to one of three groups (1:1:1): 130 to Lee Silverman voice treatment (LSVT LOUD), 129 to NHS speech and language therapy, and 129 to no speech and language therapy. LSVT LOUD consisted of four, face-to-face or remote, 50 min sessions each week delivered over four weeks. Home based practice activities were set for up to 5-10 mins daily on treatment days and 15 mins twice daily on non-treatment days. Dosage for the NHS speech and language therapy was determined by the local therapist in response to the participants' needs (estimated from prior research that NHS speech and language therapy participants would receive an average of one session per week over six to eight weeks). Local practices for NHS speech and language therapy were accepted, except for those within the LSVT LOUD protocol. Analyses were based on the intention to treat principle. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was total score at three months of self-reported voice handicap index. RESULTS: People who received LSVT LOUD reported lower voice handicap index scores at three months after randomisation than those who did not receive speech and language therapy (-8.0 points (99% confidence interval -13.3 to -2.6); P<0.001). No evidence suggests a difference in voice handicap index scores between NHS speech and language therapy and no speech and language therapy (1.7 points (-3.8 to 7.1); P=0.43). Patients in the LSVT LOUD group also reported lower voice handicap index scores than did those randomised to NHS speech and language therapy (-9.6 points (-14.9 to -4.4); P<0.001). 93 adverse events (predominately vocal strain) were reported in the LSVT LOUD group, 46 in the NHS speech and language therapy group, and none in the no speech and language therapy group. No serious adverse events were recorded. CONCLUSIONS: LSVT LOUD was more effective at reducing the participant reported impact of voice problems than was no speech and language therapy and NHS speech and language therapy. NHS speech and language therapy showed no evidence of benefit compared with no speech and language therapy. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN registry ISRCTN12421382.

Lumbar spine fusion surgery versus best conservative care for patients with severe, persistent low back pain.

Aims: People with severe, persistent low back pain (LBP) may be offered lumbar spine fusion surgery if they have had insufficient benefit from recommended non-surgical treatments. However, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) 2016 guidelines recommended not offering spinal fusion surgery for adults with LBP, except as part of a randomized clinical trial. This survey aims to describe UK clinicians' views about the suitability of patients for such a future trial, along with their views regarding equipoise for randomizing patients in a future clinical trial comparing lumbar spine fusion surgery to best conservative care (BCC; the FORENSIC-UK trial). Methods: An online cross-sectional survey was piloted by the multidisciplinary research team, then shared with clinical professional groups in the UK who are involved in the management of adults with severe, persistent LBP. The survey had seven sections that covered the demographic details of the clinician, five hypothetical case vignettes of patients with varying presentations, a series of questions regarding the preferred management, and whether or not each clinician would be willing to recruit the example patients into future clinical trials. Results: There were 72 respondents, with a response rate of 9.0%. They comprised 39 orthopaedic spine surgeons, 17 neurosurgeons, one pain specialist, and 15 allied health professionals. Most respondents (n = 61,84.7%) chose conservative care as their first-choice management option for all five case vignettes. Over 50% of respondents reported willingness to randomize three of the five cases to either surgery or BCC, indicating a willingness to participate in the future randomized trial. From the respondents, transforaminal interbody fusion was the preferred approach for spinal fusion (n = 19, 36.4%), and the preferred method of BCC was a combined programme of physical and psychological therapy (n = 35, 48.5%). Conclusion: This survey demonstrates that there is uncertainty about the role of lumbar spine fusion surgery and BCC for a range of example patients with severe, persistent LBP in the UK.

Regional impact assessment of air quality improvement: The air quality lifecourse assessment tool (AQ-LAT) for the West Midlands combined authority (WMCA) area.

Poor air quality is the largest environmental health risk in England. In the West Midlands, UK, ∼2.9 million people are affected by air pollution with an average loss in life expectancy of up to 6 months. The 2021 Environment Act established a legal framework for local authorities in England to develop regional air quality plans, generating a policy need for predictive environmental impact assessment tools. In this context, we developed a novel Air Quality Lifecourse Assessment Tool (AQ-LAT) to estimate electoral ward-level impacts of PM2.5 and NO2 exposure on outcomes of interest to local authorities, namely morbidity (asthma, coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, lung cancer), mortality, and associated healthcare costs. We apply the Tool to assess the health economic burden of air pollutant exposure and estimate benefits that would be generated by meeting WHO 2021 Global Air Quality Guidelines (AQGs) (annual average concentrations) for NO2 (10 µg/m3) and PM2.5 (5 µg/m3) in the West Midlands Combined Authority Area. All West Midlands residents live in areas which exceed WHO AQGs, with 2070 deaths, 2070 asthma diagnoses, 770 CHD diagnoses, 170 lung cancers and 650 strokes attributable to air pollution exposure annually. Reducing PM2.5 and NO2 concentrations to WHO AQGs would save 10,700 lives reducing regional mortality by 1.8%, gaining 92,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and preventing 20,500 asthma, 7400 CHD, 1400 lung cancer, and 5700 stroke diagnoses, with economic benefits of £3.2 billion over 20 years. Significantly, we estimate 30% of QALY gains relate to reduced disease burden. The AQ-LAT has major potential to be replicated across local authorities in England and applied to inform regional investment decisions.

Study protocol for a Randomised controlled trial of EArly transjugular intrahepatiC porTosystemic stent-shunt in Acute Variceal Bleeding (REACT-AVB trial).

INTRODUCTION: In liver cirrhosis, acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is associated with a 1-year mortality rate of up to 40%. Data on early or pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic stent-shunt (TIPSS) in AVB is inconclusive and may not reflect current management strategies. Randomised controlled trial of EArly transjugular intrahepatiC porTosystemic stent-shunt in AVB (REACT-AVB) aims to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of early TIPSS in patients with cirrhosis and AVB after initial bleeding control. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: REACT-AVB is a multicentre, randomised controlled, open-label, superiority, two-arm, parallel-group trial with an internal pilot. The two interventions allocated randomly 1:1 are early TIPSS within 4 days of diagnostic endoscopy or secondary prophylaxis with endoscopic therapy in combination with non-selective beta blockers. Patients aged ≥18 years with cirrhosis and Child-Pugh Score 7-13 presenting with AVB with endoscopic haemostasis are eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome is transplant-free survival at 1 year post randomisation. Secondary endpoints include transplant-free survival at 6 weeks, rebleeding, serious adverse events, other complications of cirrhosis, Child-Pugh and Model For End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores at 6 and 12 months, health-related quality of life, use of healthcare resources, cost-effectiveness and use of cross-over therapies. The sample size is 294 patients over a 4-year recruitment period, across 30 hospitals in the UK. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Research ethics committee of National Health Service has approved REACT-AVB (reference number: 23/WM/0085). The results will be submitted for publication in a peer-reviewed journal. A lay summary will also be emailed or posted to participants before publication. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN85274829; protocol version 3.0, 1 July 2023.

Engaging stakeholders to level up COPD care in LMICs: lessons learned from the "Breathe Well" programme in Brazil, China, Georgia, and North Macedonia.

BACKGROUND: Effective stakeholder engagement in health research is increasingly being recognised and promoted as an important pathway to closing the gap between knowledge production and its use in health systems. However, little is known about its process and impacts, particularly in low-and middle-income countries. This opinion piece draws on the stakeholder engagement experiences from a global health research programme on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) led by clinician researchers in Brazil, China, Georgia and North Macedonia, and presents the process, outcomes and lessons learned. MAIN BODY: Each country team was supported with an overarching engagement protocol and mentored to develop a tailored plan. Patient involvement in research was previously limited in all countries, requiring intensive efforts through personal communication, meetings, advisory groups and social media. Accredited training programmes were effective incentives for participation from healthcare providers; and aligning research findings with competing policy priorities enabled interest and dialogue with decision-makers. The COVID-19 pandemic severely limited possibilities for planned engagement, although remote methods were used where possible. Planned and persistent engagement contributed to shared knowledge and commitment to change, including raised patient and public awareness about COPD, improved skills and practice of healthcare providers, increased interest and support from clinical leaders, and dialogue for integrating COPD services into national policy and practice. CONCLUSION: Stakeholder engagement enabled relevant local actors to produce and utilise knowledge for small wins such as improving day-to-day practice and for long-term goals of equitable access to COPD care. For it to be successful and sustained, stakeholder engagement needs to be valued and integrated throughout the research and knowledge generation process, complete with dedicated resources, contextualised and flexible planning, and commitment.

Randomised controlled trial testing effectiveness of feedback about lung age or exhaled CO combined with very brief advice for smoking cessation compared to very brief advice alone in North Macedonia: findings from the Breathe Well group.

INTRODUCTION: In 2019, smoking prevalence in North Macedonia was one of the world's highest at around 46% in adults. However, access to smoking cessation treatment is limited and no co-ordinated smoking cessation programmes are provided in primary care. METHODS: We conducted a three parallel-armed randomised controlled trial (n = 1368) to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lung age (LA) or exhaled carbon monoxide (CO) feedback combined with very brief advice (VBA) to prompt smoking cessation compared with VBA alone, delivered by GPs in primary care in North Macedonia. All participants who decided to attempt to quit smoking were advised about accessing smoking cessation medications and were also offered behavioural support as part of the "ACT" component of VBA. Participants were aged ≥ 35 years, smoked ≥ 10 cigarettes per day, were recruited from 31 GP practices regardless of motivation to quit and were randomised (1:1:1) using a sequence generated before the start of recruitment. The primary outcome was biochemically validated 7-day point prevalence abstinence at 4 weeks (wks). Participants and GPs were not blinded to allocation after randomisation, however outcome assessors were blind to treatment allocation. RESULTS: There was no evidence of a difference in biochemically confirmed quitting between intervention and control at 4wks (VBA + LA RR 0.90 (97.5%CI: 0.35, 2.27); VBA + CO RR 1.04 (97.5%CI: 0.44, 2.44)), however the absolute number of quitters was small (VBA + LA 1.6%, VBA + CO 1.8%, VBA 1.8%). A similar lack of effect was observed at 12 and 26wks, apart from in the VBA + LA arm where the point estimate was significant but the confidence intervals were very wide. In both treatment arms, a larger proportion reported a reduction in cigarettes smoked per day at 4wks (VBA + LA 1.30 (1.10, 1.54); VBA + CO 1.23 (1.03, 1.49)) compared with VBA. The point estimates indicated a similar direction of effect at 12wks and 26wks, but differences were not statistically significant. Quantitative process measures indicated high fidelity to the intervention delivery protocols, but low uptake of behavioural and pharmacological support. VBA was the dominant intervention in the health economic analyses. CONCLUSION: Overall, there was no evidence that adding LA or CO to VBA increased quit rates. However, a small effect cannot be ruled out as the proportion quitting was low and therefore estimates were imprecise. There was some evidence that participants in the intervention arms were more likely to reduce the amount smoked, at least in the short term. More research is needed to find effective ways to support quitting in settings like North Macedonia where a strong smoking culture persists. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered at http://www.isrctn.com (ISRCTN54228638) on the 07/09/2018.

Is symptom duration before DMARD therapy a determinant of direct and indirect costs in DMARD-naïve RA patients? A systematic review.

Objective: Early treatment of RA improves clinical outcomes; however, the impact on health economic outcomes is unclear. This review sought to investigate the relationship between symptom/disease duration and resource utilization/costs and the responsiveness of costs following RA diagnosis. Methods: A systematic search was performed on Pubmed, EMBASE, CINAHL and Medline. Studies were eligible if patients were DMARD-naïve and fulfilled 1987 ACR or 2010 ACR/EULAR RA classification criteria. Studies had to report symptom/disease duration and resource utilization or direct/indirect costs as health economic outcomes. The relationships between symptom/disease duration and costs were explored. Results: Three hundred and fifty-seven records were identified in a systematic search; nine were eligible for analysis. The mean/median of symptom/disease duration in studies ranged between 25 days and 6 years. Annual direct costs of RA following diagnosis showed a U-shaped distribution in two studies. Longer symptom duration before starting a DMARD (>180 days) was associated with lower health-care utilization in the first year of RA diagnosis in one study. Annual direct and indirect costs 6 months before RA diagnosis were higher in patients with shorter symptom duration (<6 months) in one study. Given the clinical and methodological heterogeneities, the association between symptom/disease duration and costs after diagnosis was not computed. Conclusion: The association between symptom/disease duration at the time of DMARD initiation and resource utilization/cost in patients with RA remains unclear. Health economic modelling with clearly defined symptom duration, resource utilization and long-term productivity is vital to address this evidence gap.

Phase III, two arm, multi-centre, open label, parallel-group randomised designed clinical investigation of the use of a personalised early warning decision support system to predict and prevent acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 'Predict & Prevent AECOPD' - study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: With 65 million cases globally, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth leading cause of death and imposes a heavy burden on patients' lives and healthcare resources worldwide. Around half of all patients with COPD have frequent (≥2 per year) acute exacerbations of COPD (AECOPD). Rapid readmissions are also common. Exacerbations impact significantly on COPD outcomes, causing significant lung function decline. Prompt exacerbation management optimises recovery and delays the time to the next acute episode. METHODS/ANALYSIS: The Predict & Prevent AECOPD trial is a phase III, two arm, multi-centre, open label, parallel-group individually randomised clinical trial investigating the use of a personalised early warning decision support system (COPDPredict) to predict and prevent AECOPD. We aim to recruit 384 participants and randomise each individual in a 1:1 ratio to either standard self-management plans with rescue medication (RM) (control arm) or COPDPredict with RM (intervention arm).The trial will inform the future standard of care regarding management of exacerbations in COPD patients. The main outcome measure is to provide further validation, as compared with usual care, for the clinical effectiveness of COPDPredict to help guide and support COPD patients and their respective clinical teams in identifying exacerbations early, with an aim to reduce the total number of AECOPD-induced hospital admissions in the 12 months following each patient's randomisation. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study protocol is reported in accordance with the guidance set out in the Standard Protocol Items: Recommendations for Interventional Trials statement. Predict & Prevent AECOPD has obtained ethical approval in England (19/LO/1939). On completion of the trial and publication of results a lay findings summary will be disseminated to trial participants. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT04136418.

Developing a best practice framework for musculoskeletal outpatient physiotherapy delegation: the MOPeD mixed-methods research study protocol.

INTRODUCTION: Physiotherapy assistants/support workers are an important part of the physiotherapy workforce in the UK. Many of them work in National Health Service (NHS) physiotherapy outpatient services treating patients with musculoskeletal (MSK) conditions. In many services, they take responsibility, under professional supervision, for types of clinical work traditionally undertaken by physiotherapists such as leading exercise classes and treating individual patients. Nevertheless, their role(s) are relatively undefined and as such, there is considerable variation in the duties and tasks they undertake. This study aims to design a framework of 'best practice' in delegation to guide the work of clinicians in NHS physiotherapy MSK services and facilitate standardisation of practice to ensure that patients receive safe and effective treatment by the most appropriate person. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This mixed-methods study will be conducted in four stages. In stage 1, a focused ethnography in two MSK outpatient physiotherapy services will explore how the current use of delegation is informed by the culture within the clinical setting as well as views, attitudes about, and experiences of, delegation among clinicians, managers and patients. In stage 2a, nominal group technique will be used with three separate groups (physiotherapists/physiotherapy assistants/support workers, managers) to reach a consensus about what components should be included in a best practice framework of delegation. In stage 2b, a discrete choice experiment will elicit patients' preferences between care from physiotherapists and physiotherapy assistants/support workers within MSK physiotherapy services. In the final stage, the results of all previous stages will be triangulated to inform the development of a best practice delegation framework for future testing and use within NHS MSK outpatient physiotherapy services. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted by the South West-Frenchay Research Ethics Committee. The findings will be disseminated in peer-reviewed journals, conference presentations, the lay press and social media.

The effectiveness of corticosteroid injection versus night splints for carpal tunnel syndrome: 24-month follow-up of a randomized trial.

OBJECTIVES: This follow-up study of the INSTinCTS (INjection vs SplinTing in Carpal Tunnel Syndrome) trial compared the effects of corticosteroid injection (CSI) and night splinting (NS) for the initial management of mild-to-moderate CTS on symptoms, resource use and carpal tunnel surgery, over 24 months. METHODS: Adults with mild-to-moderate CTS were randomized 1:1 to a local corticosteroid injection or a night splint worn for 6 weeks. Outcomes at 12 and 24 months included the Boston Carpal Tunnel Questionnaire (BCTQ), hand/wrist pain intensity numeric rating scale (NRS), the number of patients referred for and undergoing CTS surgery, and healthcare utilization. A cost-utility analysis was conducted. RESULTS: One hundred and sixteen participants received a CSI and 118 a NS. The response rate at 24 months was 73% in the CSI arm and 71% in the NS arm. By 24 months, a greater proportion of the CSI group had been referred for (28% vs 20%) and undergone (22% vs 16%) CTS surgery compared with the NS group. There were no statistically significant between-group differences in BCTQ score or pain NRS at 12 or 24 months. CSI was more costly [mean difference £68.59 (95% CI: -120.84, 291.24)] with fewer quality-adjusted life-years than NS over 24 months [mean difference -0.022 (95% CI: -0.093, 0.045)]. CONCLUSION: Over 24 months, surgical intervention rates were low in both groups, but less frequent in the NS group. While there were no differences in the clinical effectiveness of CSI and NS, initial treatment with CSI may not be cost-effective in the long-term compared with NS.

Comparison of health-care utilization, costs and health-related quality of life across the subgroups defined by the Keele STarT MSK Tool.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to describe and compare health economic outcomes [health-care utilization and costs, work outcomes, and health-related quality of life (EQ-5D-5L)] in patients classified into different levels-of-risk subgroups by the Keele STarT MSK Tool. METHODS: Data on health-care utilization, costs and EQ-5D-5L were collected from a health-care perspective within a primary care prospective observational cohort study. Patients presenting with one (or more) of the five most common musculoskeletal pain presentations were included: back, neck, shoulder, knee or multi-site pain. Participants at low, medium and high risk of persistent disabling pain were compared in relation to mean health-care utilization and costs, health-related quality of life, and employment status. Regression analysis was used to estimate costs. RESULTS: Over 6 months, the mean (s.d.) total health-care (National Health Service and private) costs associated with the low, medium, and high-risk subgroups were £132.92 (167.88), £279.32 (462.98) and £476.07 (716.44), respectively. Mean health-related quality of life over the 6-month period was lower and more people changed their employment status in the high-risk subgroup compared with the medium- and low-risk subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that subgroups of people with different levels of risk for poor musculoskeletal pain outcomes also have different levels of health-care utilization, health-care costs, health-related quality of life, and work outcomes. The findings show that the STarT MSK Tool not only identifies those at risk of a poorer outcome, but also those who will have more health-care visits and incur higher costs.

Risk-based stratified primary care for common musculoskeletal pain presentations (STarT MSK): a cluster-randomised, controlled trial.

Background: Risk-based stratified care shows clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness versus usual primary care for non-specific low back pain but is untested for other common musculoskeletal disorders. We aimed to test the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of point-of-care risk stratification (using Keele's STarT MSK Tool and risk-matched treatments) versus usual care for the five most common musculoskeletal presentations (back, neck, knee, shoulder, and multi-site pain). Methods: In this cluster-randomised, controlled trial in UK primary care with embedded qualitative and health economic studies we recruited patients from 24 general practices in the West Midlands region of England. Eligible patients were those aged 18 years or older whose general practitioner (GP) confirmed a consultation for a musculoskeletal presentation. General practices that consented to participate via a representative of the cluster were randomly assigned (1:1) to intervention or usual care, using stratified block randomisation. Researchers involved in data collection, outcome data entry, and statistical analysis were masked at both the cluster and individual participant level. Participating patients were told the study was examining GP treatment of common aches and pains and were not aware they were in a randomised trial. GPs in practices allocated to the intervention group were supported to deliver risk-based stratified care using a bespoke computer-based template, including the risk-stratification tool, and risk-matched treatment options for patients at low, medium, or high risk of poor disability or pain outcomes. There were 15 risk-matched treatment options. In the usual care group, patients with musculoskeletal pain consulting their GP received treatment as usual, typically including advice and education, medication, referral for investigations or tests, or referral to other services. The primary outcome was time-averaged pain intensity over 6 months. All analyses were done by intention to treat. The trial is registered with ISRCTN, ISRCTN15366334. Results: Between May 1, 2018, and April 30, 2019, 104 GPs from 24 practices (12 per study group) identified 2494 patients with musculoskeletal pain. 1211 (49%) participants consented to questionnaires (534 in the intervention group and 677 in the usual care group), with 1070 (88%) completing the follow-up questionnaire at 6 months. We found no significant difference in time-averaged pain intensity (mean(SD) mean 4·4 [SD 2·3] in the intervention group vs 4·6 [2·5] in the control group; adjusted mean difference -0·16, 95% CI -0·65 to 0·34) or in standardised function score (mean -0·06 [SD 0·94] in the intervention group vs 0·05 [1·04]; adjusted mean difference -0·07, 95% CI -0·22 to 0·08). No serious adverse events or adverse events were reported. Risk stratification received positive patient and clinician feedback. Interpretation: Risk stratification for patients in primary care with common musculoskeletal presentations did not lead to significant improvements in pain or function, although some aspects of GP decision making were affected, and GP and patients had positive experiences. The costs of risk-based stratified care were similar to usual care, and such a strategy only offers marginal changes in cost-effectiveness outcomes. The clinical implications from this trial are largely inconclusive. Funding: National Institute for Health Research.

Saúde Cardiovascular e Fibrilação ou Flutter Atrial: Um Estudo Transversal do ELSA-Brasil / Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil

Resumo Fundamento A associação entre o status de saúde cardiovascular ideal ( ideal cardiovascular health ( ICVH) e diagnóstico de fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) foi menos estudado em comparação a outras doenças cardiovasculares. Objetivos Analisar a associação entre o diagnóstico de FFA e métricas e escores de ICVH no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). Métodos Este estudo analisou dados de 13141 participantes com dados completos. Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram codificados de acordo com o Sistema de Minnesota, em um centro de leitura centralizado. As métricas do ICVH (dieta, atividade física, índice de massa corporal, tabagismo, glicemia de jeju, e colesterol total) e escores do ICVH foram calculados conforme proposto pela American Heart Association . Modelos de regressão logística bruta e ajustada foram construídos para analisar associações de métricas e escores do ICVH com diagnóstico de FFA. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 0,05. Resultados A idade mediana da amostra foi de 55 anos, e 54,4% eram mulheres. Nos modelos ajustados, os escores de ICVH não apresentaram associação significativa com diagnóstico de FFA prevalente [odds ratio (OR):0,96; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%):0,80-1,16; p=0,70). Perfis de pressão arterial ideal (OR:0,33; IC95%:0,1-0,74; p=0,007) e colesterol total ideal (OR:1,88; IC95%:1,19-2,98; p=0,007) foram significativamente associados com o diagnóstico de FFA. Conclusões Não foram identificadas associações significativas entre escores de ICVH global e diagnóstico de FFA após ajuste multivariado em nossas análises, devido, ao menos em parte, às associações antagônicas da FFA com métricas de pressão arterial e de colesterol total do ICVH. Nossos resultados sugerem que estimar a prevenção da FFA por meio de escore de ICVH global pode não ser adequado, e as métricas do ICVH devem ser consideradas separadamente.

Abstract Background The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases. Objective To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). Methods This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05. Results The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis. Conclusions No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

Cardiovascular Health and Atrial Fibrillation or Flutter: A Cross-Sectional Study from ELSA-Brasil. / Saúde Cardiovascular e Fibrilação ou Flutter Atrial: Um Estudo Transversal do ELSA-Brasil.

BACKGROUND: The association between ideal cardiovascular health (ICVH) status and atrial fibrillation or flutter (AFF) diagnosis has been less studied compared to other cardiovascular diseases. OBJECTIVE: To analyze the association between AFF diagnosis and ICVH metrics and scores in the Brazilian Longitudinal Study of Adult Health (ELSA-Brasil). METHODS: This study analyzed data from 13,141 participants with complete data. Electrocardiographic tracings were coded according to the Minnesota Coding System, in a centralized reading center. ICVH metrics (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking, blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, and total cholesterol) and scores were calculated as proposed by the American Heart Association. Crude and adjusted binary logistic regression models were built to analyze the association of ICVH metrics and scores with AFF diagnosis. Significance level was set at 0.05. RESULTS: The sample had a median age of 55 years and 54.4% were women. In adjusted models, ICVH scores were not significantly associated with prevalent AFF diagnosis (odds ratio [OR]:0.96; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]:0.80-1.16; p=0.70). Ideal blood pressure (OR:0.33; 95% CI:0.15-0.74; p=0.007) and total cholesterol (OR:1.88; 95% CI:1.19-2.98; p=0.007) profiles were significantly associated with AFF diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: No significant associations were identified between global ICVH scores and AFF diagnosis after multivariable adjustment in our analyses, at least partially due to the antagonistic associations of AFF with blood pressure and total cholesterol ICVH metrics. Our results suggest that estimating the prevention of AFF burden using global ICVH scores may not be adequate, and ICVH metrics should be considered in separate.

FUNDAMENTO: A associação entre o status de saúde cardiovascular ideal ( ideal cardiovascular health ( ICVH) e diagnóstico de fibrilação ou flutter atrial (FFA) foi menos estudado em comparação a outras doenças cardiovasculares. OBJETIVOS: Analisar a associação entre o diagnóstico de FFA e métricas e escores de ICVH no Estudo Longitudinal de Saúde do Adulto (ELSA-Brasil). MÉTODOS: Este estudo analisou dados de 13141 participantes com dados completos. Os traçados eletrocardiográficos foram codificados de acordo com o Sistema de Minnesota, em um centro de leitura centralizado. As métricas do ICVH (dieta, atividade física, índice de massa corporal, tabagismo, glicemia de jeju, e colesterol total) e escores do ICVH foram calculados conforme proposto pela American Heart Association . Modelos de regressão logística bruta e ajustada foram construídos para analisar associações de métricas e escores do ICVH com diagnóstico de FFA. O nível de significância foi estabelecido em 0,05. RESULTADOS: A idade mediana da amostra foi de 55 anos, e 54,4% eram mulheres. Nos modelos ajustados, os escores de ICVH não apresentaram associação significativa com diagnóstico de FFA prevalente [odds ratio (OR):0,96; intervalo de confiança de 95% (IC95%):0,80-1,16; p=0,70). Perfis de pressão arterial ideal (OR:0,33; IC95%:0,1-0,74; p=0,007) e colesterol total ideal (OR:1,88; IC95%:1,19-2,98; p=0,007) foram significativamente associados com o diagnóstico de FFA. CONCLUSÕES: Não foram identificadas associações significativas entre escores de ICVH global e diagnóstico de FFA após ajuste multivariado em nossas análises, devido, ao menos em parte, às associações antagônicas da FFA com métricas de pressão arterial e de colesterol total do ICVH. Nossos resultados sugerem que estimar a prevenção da FFA por meio de escore de ICVH global pode não ser adequado, e as métricas do ICVH devem ser consideradas separadamente.

Feasibility of a pulmonary rehabilitation programme for patients with symptomatic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Georgia: a single-site, randomised controlled trial from the Breathe Well Group.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility of delivering a culturally tailored pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) programme and conducting a definitive randomised controlled trial (RCT). DESIGN: A two-arm, randomised feasibility trial with a mixed-methods process evaluation. SETTING: Secondary care setting in Georgia, Europe. PARTICIPANTS: People with symptomatic spirometry-confirmed chronic obstructive pulmonary disease recruited from primary and secondary care. INTERVENTIONS: Participants were randomised in a 1:1 ratio to a control group or intervention comprising 16 twice-weekly group PR sessions tailored to the Georgian setting. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Feasibility of the intervention and RCT were assessed according to: study recruitment, consent and follow-up, intervention fidelity, adherence and acceptability, using questionnaires and measurements at baseline, programme end and 6 months, and through qualitative interviews. RESULTS: The study recruited 60 participants (as planned): 54 (90%) were male, 10 (17%) had a forced expiratory volume in 1 second of ≤50% predicted. The mean MRC Dyspnoea Score was 3.3 (SD 0.5), and mean St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) 50.9 (SD 17.6). The rehabilitation specialists delivered the PR with fidelity. Thirteen (43.0%) participants attended at least 75% of the 16 planned sessions. Participants and rehabilitation specialists in the qualitative interviews reported that the programme was acceptable, but dropout rates were high in participants who lived outside Tbilisi and had to travel large distances. Outcome data were collected on 63.3% participants at 8 weeks and 88.0% participants at 6 months. Mean change in SGRQ total was -24.9 (95% CI -40.3 to -9.6) at programme end and -4.4 (95% CI -12.3 to 3.4) at 6 months follow-up for the intervention group and -0.5 (95% CI -8.1 to 7.0) and -8.1 (95% CI -16.5 to 0.3) for the usual care group at programme end and 6 months, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: It was feasible to deliver the tailored PR intervention. Approaches to improve uptake and adherence warrant further research. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN16184185.

Community lung health service design for COPD patients in China by the Breathe Well group.

COPD is increasingly common in China but is poorly understood by patients, medications are not used as prescribed and there is no access to recommended non-pharmacological treatment. We explored COPD patients' and general practitioners' (GPs) knowledge of COPD, views on its management and the acceptability of a flexible lung health service (LHS) offering health education, exercise, self-management, smoking cessation and mental health support. Using a convergent mixed methods design, data were collected from patients and GPs using focus groups (FGs) in four Chinese cities, questionnaires were also used to collect data from patients. FGs were audio-recorded and transcribed. Quantitative data were analysed descriptively, thematic framework analysis was used for the qualitative data. Two-hundred fifty-one patients completed the questionnaire; 39 patients and 30 GPs participated in ten separate FGs. Three overarching themes were identified: patients' lack of knowledge/understanding of COPD, current management of COPD not meeting patients' needs and LHS design, which was well received by patients and GPs. Participants wanted COPD education, TaiChi, psychological support and WeChat for social support. 39% of survey responders did not know what to do when their breathing worsened and 24% did not know how to use their inhalers. 36% of survey respondents requested guided relaxation. Overall, participants did not fully understand the implications of COPD and current treatment was sub-optimal. There was support for developing a culturally appropriate intervention meeting Chinese patients' needs, health beliefs, and local healthcare delivery. Further research should explore the feasibility of such a service.

Enhancing the health of NHS staff: eTHOS - protocol for a randomised controlled pilot trial of an employee health screening clinic for NHS staff to reduce absenteeism and presenteeism, compared with usual care.

BACKGROUND: Staff absenteeism and presenteeism incur high costs to the NHS and are associated with adverse health outcomes. The main causes are musculoskeletal complaints and mental ill-health, which are potentially modifiable, and cardiovascular risk factors are also common. We will test the feasibility of an RCT to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of an employee health screening clinic on reducing sickness absenteeism and presenteeism. METHODS: This is an individually randomised controlled pilot trial aiming to recruit 480 participants. All previously unscreened employees from four hospitals within three UK NHS hospital Trusts will be eligible. Those randomised to the intervention arm will be invited to attend an employee health screening clinic consisting of a screening assessment for musculoskeletal (STarT MSK and STarT Back), mental (PHQ-9 and GAD-7) and cardiovascular (NHS Health Check if aged ≥ 40, lifestyle check if < 40 years) health. Screen positives will be given advice and/or referral to recommended services. Those randomised to the control arm will receive usual care. Participants will complete a questionnaire at baseline and 26 weeks; anonymised absenteeism and staff demographics will also be collected from personnel records. The co-primary outcomes are as follows: recruitment, referrals and uptake of recommended services in the intervention arm. Secondary outcomes include the following: results of screening assessments, uptake of individual referrals, reported changes in health behaviours, acceptability and feasibility of intervention, indication of contamination and costs. Outcomes related to the definitive trial include self-reported and employee records of absenteeism with reasons. Process evaluation to inform a future trial includes interviews with participants, intervention delivery staff and service providers receiving referrals. Analyses will include presentation of descriptive statistics, framework analysis for qualitative data and costs and consequences presented for health economics. DISCUSSION: The study will provide data to inform the design of a definitive RCT which aims to find an effective and cost-effective method of reducing absenteeism and presenteeism amongst NHS staff. The feasibility study will test trial procedures, and process outcomes, including the success of strategies for including underserved groups, and provide information and data to help inform the design and sample size for a definitive trial. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN reference number 10237475 .

Structured follow-up pathway to support people after transient ischaemic attack and minor stroke (SUPPORT TIA): protocol for a feasibility study and process evaluation.

INTRODUCTION: People who experience transient ischaemic attack (TIA) and minor stroke have limited follow-up despite rapid specialist review in hospital. This means they often have unmet needs and feel abandoned following discharge. Care needs after TIA/minor stroke include information provision (diagnosis and stroke risk), stroke prevention (medication and lifestyle change) and holistic care (residual problems and return to work or usual activities). This protocol describes a feasibility study and process evaluation of an intervention to support people after TIA/minor stroke. The study aims to assess the feasibility and acceptability of (1) the intervention and (2) the trial procedures for a future randomised controlled trial of this intervention. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This is a multicentre, randomised (1:1) feasibility study with a mixed-methods process evaluation. Sixty participants will be recruited from TIA clinics or stroke wards at three hospital sites (England). Intervention arm participants will be offered a nurse or allied health professional-led follow-up appointment 4 weeks after TIA/minor stroke. The multifaceted intervention includes: a needs checklist, action plan, resources to support management of needs, a general practitioner letter and training to deliver the intervention. Control arm participants will receive usual care. Follow-up will be self-completed questionnaires (12 weeks and 24 weeks) and a clinic appointment (24 weeks). Follow-up questionnaires will measure anxiety, depression, fatigue, health related quality of life, self-efficacy and medication adherence. The clinic appointment will collect body mass index, blood pressure, cholesterol and medication. Assessment of feasibility and acceptability will include quantitative process variables (such as recruitment and questionnaire response rates), structured observations of study processes, and interviews with a subsample of participants and clinical staff. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Favourable ethical opinion was gained from the Wales Research Ethics Committee (REC) 1 (23 February 2021, REC reference: 21/WA/0036). Study results will be published in peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences. A lay summary and dissemination strategy will be codesigned with consumers. The lay summary and journal publication will be distributed on social media. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN39864003.