ABSTRACT
This study analyzes the relationship between drought processes and crop yields in Moldova, together with the effects of possible future climate change on crops. The severity of drought is analyzed over time in Moldova using the Standard Precipitation Index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, and their relationship with crop yields. In addition, rainfall variability and its relationship with crop yields are examined using spectral analysis and squared wavelet coherence. Observed station data (1950-2020 and 1850-2020), ERA5 reanalysis data (1950-2020), and climate model simulations (period 1970-2100) are used. Crop yield data (maize, sunflower, grape), data from experimental plots (wheat), and the Enhanced Vegetation Index from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer satellites were also used. Results show that although the severity of meteorological droughts has decreased in the last 170 years, the impact of precipitation deficits on different crop yields has increased, concurrent with a sharp increase in temperature, which negatively affected crop yields. Annual crops are now more vulnerable to natural rainfall variability and, in years characterized by rainfall deficits, the possibility of reductions in crop yield increases due to sharp increases in temperature. Projections reveal a pessimistic outlook in the absence of adaptation, highlighting the urgency of developing new agricultural management strategies.
ABSTRACT
The loss of environmental heterogeneity threatens biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. It is therefore important to understand the relationship between environmental heterogeneity and spatial resilience as the capacity of ecological communities embedded in a landscape matrix to reorganize following disturbance. We experimented with phototrophic biofilms colonizing streambed landscapes differing in spatial heterogeneity and exposed to flow-induced disturbance. We show how streambed roughness and related features promote growth-related trait diversity and the recovery of biofilms towards carrying capacity (CC) and spatial resilience. At the scale of streambed landscapes, roughness and exposure to water flow promoted biofilm CC and growth trait diversity. Structural equation modelling identified roughness, post-disturbance biomass and a 'neighbourhood effect' to drive biofilm CC. Our findings suggest that the environment selecting for adaptive capacities prior to disturbance (that is, memory effects) and biofilm connectivity into spatial networks (that is, mobile links) contribute to the spatial resilience of biofilms in streambed landscapes. These findings are critical given the key functions biofilms fulfil in streams, now increasingly experiencing shifts in sedimentary and hydrological regimes.
