Missing Americans: Early Death in the United States, 1933-2021

We assessed how many U.S. deaths would have been averted each year, 1933-2021, if U.S. age-specific mortality rates had equaled those of other wealthy nations. The annual number of excess deaths in the U.S. increased steadily beginning in the late 1970s, reaching 626,353 in 2019. Excess deaths surged during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, there were 1,092,293 "Missing Americans" and 25 million years of life lost due to excess mortality relative to peer nations. In 2021, half of all deaths under 65 years and 91% of the increase in under-65 mortality since 2019 would have been avoided if the U.S. had the mortality rates of its peers. Black and Native Americans made up a disproportionate share of Missing Americans, although the majority were White. One sentence summaryIn 2021, 1.1 million U.S. deaths - including 1 in 2 deaths under age 65 years - would have been averted if the U.S. had the mortality rates of other wealthy nations.

Inequities in COVID-19 vaccine and booster coverage across Massachusetts ZIP codes: large gaps persist after the 2021/22 Omicron wave

BackgroundInequities in COVID-19 vaccine coverage may contribute to future disparities in morbidity and mortality between Massachusetts (MA) communities. MethodsWe obtained public-use data on residents vaccinated and boosted by ZIP code (and by age group: 5-19, 20-39, 40-64, 65+) from MA Department of Public Health. We constructed population denominators for postal ZIP codes by aggregating Census-tract population estimates from the 2015-2019 American Community Survey. We excluded non-residential ZIP codes and the smallest ZIP codes containing 1% of the states population. We mapped variation in ZIP-code level primary series vaccine and booster coverage and used regression models to evaluate the association of these measures with ZIP-code-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Because age is strongly associated with COVID-19 severity and vaccine access/uptake, we assessed whether observed socioeconomic and racial inequities persisted after adjusting for age composition and plotted age-specific vaccine and booster coverage by deciles of ZIP-code characteristics. ResultsWe analyzed data on 418 ZIP codes. We observed wide geographic variation in primary series vaccination and booster rates, with marked inequities by ZIP-code-level education, median household income, essential worker share, and racial-ethnic composition. In age-stratified analyses, primary series vaccine coverage was very high among the elderly. However, we found large inequities in vaccination rates among younger adults and children, and very large inequities in booster rates for all age groups. In multivariable regression models, each 10 percentage point increase in "percent college educated" was associated with a 5.0 percentage point increase in primary series vaccine coverage and a 4.9 percentage point increase in booster coverage. Although ZIP codes with higher "percent Black/Latino/Indigenous" and higher "percent essential workers" had lower vaccine coverage, these associations became strongly positive after adjusting for age and education, consistent with high demand for vaccines among Black/Latino/Indigenous and essential worker populations. ConclusionOne year into MAs vaccine rollout, large disparities in COVID-19 primary series vaccine and booster coverage persist across MA ZIP codes. O_TEXTBOXKey Messages O_LIAs of March 2022, in the wake of MAs Omicron wave, there were large inequities in ZIP-code-level vaccine and booster coverage by income, education, percent Black/Latino/Indigenous, and percent essential workers. C_LIO_LIEducation was the strongest predictor of ZIP-code vaccine coverage in MA. C_LIO_LICoverage gaps in ZIP codes with many essential workers and large Black/Latino/Indigenous populations are troubling, as these groups face disproportionate risk for COVID-19 infection and severe illness. However, we found no evidence that "hesitancy" drives vaccination gaps. After adjusting for age and education levels, vaccine uptake was higher in ZIP codes with many Black/Latino/Indigenous residents or essential workers. C_LIO_LIGaps in vaccine and booster coverage among vulnerable groups may lead to excess morbidity, mortality, and economic losses during the next COVID-19 wave. These burdens will not be equitably shared and are preventable. C_LI C_TEXTBOX

Does COVID-19 vaccination improve mental health? A difference-in-difference analysis of the UnderstandingCoronavirus in America study

BackgroundMental health problems increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. Knowledge that one is less at risk after being vaccinated may alleviate distress, but this hypothesis remains unexplored. Here we test whether psychological distress declined in those vaccinated against COVID-19 in the US and whether changes in perceived risk mediated any association. MethodsA nationally-representative cohort of U.S. adults (N=5,792) in the Understanding America Study were interviewed every two weeks from March 2020 to June 2021 (28 waves). Difference-in-difference regression tested whether getting vaccinated reduced distress (PHQ-4 scores), with mediation analysis used to identify potential mechanisms, including perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. ResultsVaccination was associated with a 0.09 decline in distress scores (95% CI:-0.15 to -0.04) (0-12 scale), a 5.7% relative decrease compared to mean scores in the wave prior to vaccination. Vaccination was also associated with an 8.44 percentage point reduction in perceived risk of infection (95% CI:-9.15% to -7.73%), a 7.44-point reduction in perceived risk of hospitalization (95% CI:-8.07% to -6.82%), and a 5.03-point reduction in perceived risk of death (95% CI:-5.57% to -4.49%). Adjusting for risk perceptions decreased the vaccination-distress association by two-thirds. Event study models suggest vaccinated and never vaccinated respondents followed similar PHQ-4 trends pre-vaccination, diverging significantly post-vaccination. Analyses were robust to individual and wave fixed effects, time-varying controls, and several alternative modelling strategies. Results were similar across sociodemographic groups. ConclusionReceiving a COVID-19 vaccination was associated with declines in distress and perceived risks of infection, hospitalization, and death. Vaccination campaigns could promote these additional benefits of being vaccinated.

State minimum wage, paid sick leave, and food insufficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

IntroductionPeople in low-income households face a disproportionate burden of health and economic consequences brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic, including COVID-19 and food insufficiency. State minimum wage and paid sick leave policies may affect whether people are vulnerable to employment and health shocks to income and affect food insufficiency. MethodsWe evaluated the relationship between state minimum wage policies and the outcome of household food insufficiency among participants younger than 65 during the COVID-19 pandemic. We used data from biweekly, state representative Census Pulse surveys conducted between August 19 and December 21, 2020. We conducted analyses in the full population under age 65 years, who are most likely to work, and in households with children. The primary exposure was state minimum wage policies in four categories: less than $8.00, $8.00 to $9.99, $10.00 to $11.99, and $12.00 or more. A secondary exposure was missing work due to COVID-19, interacted with whether participants reported not having paid sick leave. Food insufficiency was defined as sometimes or often not having enough to eat in the past seven days. Very low child food sufficiency was defined as children sometimes or often not eating enough in the past seven days because of inability to afford food. We conducted a multivariable modified Poisson regression analysis to estimate adjusted prevalence ratios and marginal effects. We clustered standard errors by state. To adjust for state health and social programs, we adjusted for health insurance and receipt of supplemental nutrition assistance program benefits, unemployment insurance, and stimulus payments as well as for population demographic characteristics associated with food insufficiency. We conducted subgroup analyses among populations most likely to be affected by minimum wage policies: Participants who reported any work in the past seven days, who reported <$75,000 in 2019 household income, or who had a high school education or less. We conducted falsification tests among participants less likely to be directly affected by policies, [≥]65 years or with >$75,000 in 2019 household income. ResultsIn states with a minimum wage of less than $8.00, 14.3% of participants under age 65 and 16.6% of participants in households with children reported household food insufficiency, while 10.3% of participants reported very low child food sufficiency. A state minimum wage of $12 or more per hour was associated with a 1.83 percentage point reduction in the proportion of households reporting food insufficiency relative to a minimum wage of less than $8.00 per hour (95% CI: -2.67 to -0.99 percentage points). In households with children, a state minimum wage of $12 or more per hour was associated with a 2.13 percentage point reduction in household food insufficiency (95% CI: -3.25 to -1.00 percentage points) and in very low child food sufficiency (-1.16 percentage points, 95% CI: -1.69 to -0.63 percentage points) relative to a state minimum wage of less than $8.00 per hour. Minimum wages of $8.00 to $9.99 and $10.00 to $11.99 were not associated with changes in child food insufficiency or very low child food sufficiency relative to less than $8.00 per hour. Subgroup analyses and sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main results. Estimates were of a lesser magnitude (<0.6 percentage points) in populations that should be less directly affected by state minimum wage policies. Missing work due to COVID-19 without paid sick leave was associated with a 5.72 percentage point increase in the proportion of households reporting food insufficiency (95% CI: 3.59 to 7.85 percentage points). DiscussionFood insufficiency is high in all households and even more so in households with children during the COVID-19 pandemic. Living in a state with at least a $12 minimum wage was associated with a decrease in the proportion of people reporting food insufficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic. Not having paid leave was associated with increases in food insufficiency among people who reported missing work due to COVID-19 illness. Policymakers may wish to consider raising the minimum wage and paid sick leave as approaches to reducing food insufficiency during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Economic precarity, social isolation, and suicidal ideation during the COVID-19 pandemic

ImportanceThe US population faces stressors associated with suicide brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the relationship between stressors and suicidal ideation may inform policies and programs to prevent suicide. ObjectiveTo evaluate the relationship between stressors and suicidal ideation during the COVID-19 pandemic. DesignWe compared suicidal ideation in 2017-2018 to suicidal ideation in 2020. We estimated the association between stressors and suicidal ideation in bivariable and multivariable Poisson regression models with robust variance. SettingUnited States ParticipantsParticipants were from two, nationally representative surveys of US adults: The 2017-2017 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the 2020 COVID-19 and Life Stressors Impact on Mental Health and Well-being study (conducted March 31 to April 13), analyzed April 28 to September 30, 2020. ExposuresEconomic precarity as measured through job loss or difficulty paying rent and social isolation based on reporting "feeling alone." Main outcome measureSuicidal ideation based on reporting "Thoughts that you would be better off dead or of hurting yourself in some way" over the past two weeks. ResultsSuicidal ideation increased more than fourfold, from 3.4% in the 2017-2018 NHANES to 16.3% in the 2020 CLIMB survey, and from 5.8% to 26.4% among participants in low-income households. Suicidal ideation was more prevalent among people facing difficulty paying rent (31.5%), job loss (24.1%), and loneliness (25.1%), with each stressor associated with suicidal ideation in bivariable models. In the multivariable model, difficulty paying rent was associated with suicidal ideation (aPR: 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2 to 2.1), while losing a job was not (aPR: 0.9, 95% CI: 0.6 to 1.2). Feeling alone was associated with suicidal ideation (aPR: 1.9, 95% CI: 1.5 to 2.4). Conclusions and relevanceSuicidal ideation increased more than fourfold during the COVID-19 pandemic. Difficulty paying rent and loneliness were most associated with suicidal ideation. Policies and programs to support people experiencing economic precarity and loneliness may contribute to suicide prevention.

Unemployment insurance and food insecurity among people who lost employment in the wake of COVID-19

Forty million U.S. residents lost their jobs in the first two months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In response, the Federal Government expanded unemployment insurance benefits in both size ($600/week supplement) and scope (to include caregivers and self-employed workers). We assessed the relationship between unemployment insurance and food insecurity among people who lost their jobs during the COVID-19 pandemic in the period when the federal unemployment insurance supplement was in place. We analyzed data from the Understanding Coronavirus in America (UAC) cohort, a longitudinal survey collected by the University of Southern California Center for Economic and Social Research (CESR) every two weeks between April 1 and July 8, 2020. We limited the sample to individuals living in households earning less than $75,000 in February 2020 who lost their jobs during COVID-19. Using difference-in-differences and event study regression models, we evaluated the association between receipt of unemployment insurance and self-reported food insecurity and eating less due to financial constraints. We found that 40.5% of those living in households earning less than $75,000 and employed in February 2020 experienced unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Of those who lost their jobs, 31% reported food insecurity and 33% reported eating less due to financial constraints. Food insecurity peaked in April 2020 and declined over time, but began to increase again among people receiving unemployment insurance during the final wave of the survey ahead of the federal supplement to unemployment insurance ending. Food insecurity and eating less were more common among people who were non-White, lived in lower-income households, younger, and who were sexual or gender minorities. Receipt of unemployment insurance was associated with a 4.4 percentage point (95% CI: -7.8 to -0.9 percentage points) decline in food insecurity (a 30.3% relative decline compared to the average level of food insecurity during the study period). Receipt of unemployment insurance was also associated with a 6.1 percentage point (95% CI: -9.6 to -2.7 percentage point) decline in eating less due to financial constraints (a 42% relative decline). Estimates from event study specifications revealed that reductions in food insecurity and eating less were greatest in the four-week period immediately following receipt of unemployment insurance, with no evidence of differential pre-existing trends in either outcome. We conclude that receiving unemployment insurance benefits during the period when the $600/week federal supplement was in place was associated with large reductions in food insecurity.

Neighborhood income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S.

IntroductionAlthough physical distancing has been the primary strategy to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in the U.S., peoples ability to distance may vary by socioeconomic characteristics, leading to higher transmission risk in low-income neighborhoods. MethodsWe used mobility data from a large, anonymized sample of smartphone users to assess the relationship between neighborhood median household income and physical distancing during the COVID-19 epidemic. We assessed changes in several behaviors including: spending the day entirely at home; working outside the home; and visits to supermarkets, parks, hospitals, and other locations. We also assessed differences in effects of state policies on physical distancing across neighborhood income levels. ResultsWe found a strong gradient between neighborhood income and physical distancing. Compared to January and February 2020, the proportion of individuals spending the day entirely at home in April 2020 increased by 10.9 percentage points in low-income neighborhoods and by 27.1 percentage points in high-income neighborhoods. During April 2020, people in low-income neighborhoods were more likely to work outside the home, compared to people in higher-income neighborhoods, but not more likely to visit non-work locations. State physical distancing orders were associated with a 1.5 percentage-point increase (95% CI [0.9, 2.1], p < 0.001) in staying home in low-income neighborhoods and a 2.4 percentage point increase (95% CI [1.4, 3.4], p < 0.001) in high-income neighborhoods. DiscussionPeople in lower-income neighborhoods have faced barriers to physical distancing, particularly the need to work outside the home. State physical distancing policies have not mitigated these disparities.