Historical and projected response of Southeast Asian lakes surface water temperature to warming climate.

The temperature of surface and epilimnetic waters, closely related to regional air temperatures, responds quickly and directly to climatic changes. As a result, lake surface temperature (LSWT) can be considered an effective indicator of climate change. In this study, we reconstructed and investigated historical and future LSWT across different scenarios for over 80 major lakes in mainland Southeast Asia (SEA), an ecologically diverse region vulnerable to climate impacts. Five different predicting models, incorporating statistical, machine and deep learning approaches, were trained and validated using ERA5 and CHIRPS climatic feature datasets as predictors and 8-day MODIS-derived LSWT from 2000 to 2020 as reference dataset. Best performing model was then applied to predict both historical (1986-2020) and future (2020-2100) LSWT for SEA lakes, utilizing downscaled climatic CORDEX-SEA feature data and multiple Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). The analysis uncovered historical and future thermal dynamics and long-term trends for both daytime and nighttime LSWT. Among 5 models, XGboost results the most performant (NSE 0.85, RMSE 1.14 °C, MAE 0.69 °C, MBE -0.08 °C) and it has been used for historical reconstruction and future LSWT prediction. The historical analysis revealed a warming trend in SEA lakes, with daytime LSWT increasing at a rate of +0.18 °C/decade and nighttime LSWT at +0.13 °C/decade over the past three decades. These trends appeared of smaller magnitude compared to global estimates of LSWT change rates and less pronounced than concurrent air temperature and LSWT increases in neighbouring regions. Projections under various RCP scenarios indicated continued LSWT warming. Daytime LSWT is projected to increase at varying rates per decade: +0.03 °C under RCP2.6, +0.14 °C under RCP4.5, and +0.29 °C under RCP8.5. Similarly, nighttime LSWT projections under these scenarios are: +0.03 °C, +0.10 °C, and +0.16 °C per decade, respectively. The most optimistic scenario predicted marginal increases of +0.38 °C on average, while the most pessimistic scenario indicated an average LSWT increase of +2.29 °C by end of the century. This study highlights the relevance of LSWT as a climate change indicator in major SEA's freshwater ecosystems. The integration of satellite-derived LSWT, historical and projected climate data into data-driven modelling has enabled new and a more nuanced understanding of LSWT dynamics in relation to climate throughout the entire SEA region.

Assessment of Evaporative Demand Drought Index for drought analysis in Peninsular Malaysia.

An effective drought monitoring tool is essential for the development of timely drought early warning system. This study evaluates Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) as a drought indicator in measuring spatiotemporal evolution of droughts over Peninsular Malaysia during 1989-2018. The modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope tests were performed to detect the presence of monotonic trends in EDDI, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and their related climate variables. The performance of EDDI in capturing the drought onset, evolutions and demise of historical severe droughts was also compared with SPI and SPEI at multiple timescales. EDDI demonstrates strong spatiotemporal correlations with SPI and SPEI and comparable performance in historical drought events identification. At sub-monthly timescale, 2-week EDDI displays equivalent drought severities and durations for all historical severe droughts corresponding to the monthly EDDI. In the case when rainfall deficits are normalized in an otherwise warm and dry month, EDDI may serve as a great alternative to SPI and SPEI due to it being sensitive to the changes in prevalent atmospheric conditions. Collectively, the results fill in the knowledge gaps on drought evolutions from the evaporative perspective and highlight the efficacy of EDDI as a valuable drought early warning tool for Peninsular Malaysia. Future study should explore the physical mechanisms behind the development of flash drought and the role of evaporation in the drought propagation processes.

Assessing the impacts of climate variables on long-term air quality trends in Peninsular Malaysia.

Climate change is thought to influence the composition of atmospheric air, but little is known about the direct relationship between these variables, especially in a hot tropical climate like that of Malaysia. This work summarizes and analyzes the climate state and air quality of Peninsular Malaysia based on selected ground-based observations of the temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, wind direction and concentrations of PM10, O3, CO, NO2, and SO2 over the last 20 years (2000-2019). The relationship between the climate state and air quality is analyzed using the Pearson correlation and canonical correlation analysis (CCA) methods is employed to predict the degree of change in the future air quality under different warming scenarios. It is found that the Peninsular Malaysia mainly experienced strong precipitation in the central and mountainous regions, while air pollutants are primarily concentrated in densely populated areas. Throughout the period of study (interannual, monthly, and diurnal time series analyses), Peninsular Malaysia became warmer and drier, with a significant increase in temperature (+4.2 %), decrease in the relative humidity (-4.5 %), and greater fluctuation in precipitation amount. The pollution conditions have worsened; there has been an increase in the PM10 (+16.4 %), O3 (+39.5 %), and NO2 (+2.1 %) concentration over the last 20 years. However, the amount of SO2 (-53.6 %) and CO (-20.6 %) decreased significantly. The analysis of the monthly variation shows a strong bimodality of the PM10 and O3 concentrations that corresponds to the monsoon transition. Intensive diurnal fluctuations and correlations are observed for all the variables in this study. According to the CCA, the air quality factors are strongly correlated with meteorological factors; in particular, the CO, O3, and PM10 concentrations interact strongly with the air temperature. These findings show that the future air quality in Peninsular Malaysia has high possibility to deteriorate under warming condition.

Impacts of climate change and environmental degradation on children in Malaysia.

The impacts of climate change and degradation are increasingly felt in Malaysia. While everyone is vulnerable to these impacts, the health and wellbeing of children are disproportionately affected. We carried out a study composed of two major components. The first component is an environmental epidemiology study comprised of three sub-studies: (i) a global climate model (GCM) simulating specific health-sector climate indices; (ii) a time-series study to estimate the risk of childhood respiratory disease attributable to ambient air pollution; and (iii) a case-crossover study to identify the association between haze and under-five mortality in Malaysia. The GCM found that Malaysia has been experiencing increasing rainfall intensity over the years, leading to increased incidences of other weather-related events. The time-series study revealed that air quality has worsened, while air pollution and haze have been linked to an increased risk of hospitalization for respiratory diseases among children. Although no clear association between haze and under-five mortality was found in the case-crossover study, the lag patterns suggested that health effects could be more acute if haze occurred over a longer duration and at a higher intensity. The second component consists of three community surveys on marginalized children conducted (i) among the island community of Pulau Gaya, Sabah; (ii) among the indigenous Temiar tribe in Pos Kuala Mu, Perak; and (iii) among an urban poor community (B40) in PPR Sg. Bonus, Kuala Lumpur. The community surveys are cross-sectional studies employing a socio-ecological approach using a standardized questionnaire. The community surveys revealed how children adapt to climate change and environmental degradation. An integrated model was established that consolidates our overall research processes and demonstrates the crucial interconnections between environmental challenges exacerbated by climate change. It is recommended that Malaysian schools adopt a climate-smart approach to education to instill awareness of the impending climate change and its cascading impact on children's health from early school age.

Volatile organic compounds and their contribution to ground-level ozone formation in a tropical urban environment.

This study aims to determine the trends of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and their potential contribution to O3 formation. The hourly data (August 2017 to July 2018) for 29 VOCs were obtained from three Malaysian Department of Environment continuous air quality monitoring stations with different urban backgrounds (Shah Alam, Cheras, Seremban). The Ozone Formation Potential (OFP) was calculated based on the individual Maximum Incremental Reactivity (MIR) and VOC concentrations. The results showed that the highest mean total VOC concentrations were recorded at Cheras (148 ± 123 µg m-3), within the Kuala Lumpur urban environment, followed by Shah Alam (124 ± 116 µg m-3) and Seremban (86.4 ± 89.2 µg m-3). VOCs such as n-butane, ethene, ethane and toluene were reported to be the most abundant species at all the selected stations, with overall mean concentrations of 16.6 ± 11.9 µg m-3, 12.1 ± 13.3 µg m-3, 10.8 ± 11.9 µg m-3 and 9.67 ± 9.00 µg m-3, respectively. Alkenes (51.3-59.1%) and aromatic hydrocarbons (26.4-33.5%) have been identified as the major contributors to O3 formation in the study areas based on the overall VOC measurements. Relative humidity was found to influence the concentrations of VOCs more than other meteorological parameters. Overall, this study will contribute to further understanding of the distribution of VOCs and their contribution to O3 formation, particularly in the tropical urban environment.

Multi-model projections of precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX-Southeast Asia simulations.

This study examines the projected precipitation extremes for the end of 21st century (2081-2100) over Southeast Asia (SEA) using the output of the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - Southeast Asia (SEACLID/CORDEX-SEA). Eight ensemble members, representing a subset of archived CORDEX-SEA simulations at 25 km spatial resolution, were examined for emission scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The study utilised four different indicators of rainfall extreme, i.e. the annual/seasonal rainfall total (PRCPTOT), consecutive dry days (CDD), frequency of extremely heavy rainfall (R50mm) and annual/seasonal maximum of daily rainfall (RX1day). In general, changes in extreme indices are more pronounced and covering wider area under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. The decrease in annual PRCPTOT is projected over most of SEA region, except for Myanmar and Northern Thailand, with magnitude as much as 20% (30%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The most significant and robust changes were noted in CDD, which is projected to increase by as much as 30% under RCP4.5 and 60% under RCP8.5, particularly over Maritime Continent (MC). The projected decrease in PRCPTOT over MC is significant and robust during June to August (JJA) and September to November (SON). During March to May (MAM) under RCP8.5, significant and robust PRCPTOT decreases are also projected over Indochina. The CDD changes during JJA and SON over MC are even higher, more robust and significant compared to the annual changes. At the same time, a wetting tendency is also projected over Indochina. The R50mm and RX1day are projected to increase, during all seasons with significant and robust signal of RX1day during JJA and SON.

The long-term assessment of air quality on an island in Malaysia.

This study aims to evaluate the air quality on Langkawi Island, a famous tourist destination in Malaysia, using 13 years of data (1999-2011) recorded by the Malaysian Department of Environment. Variations of seven air pollutants (O3, CO, NO, NO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10) and three meteorological factors (temperature, humidity and wind speed) were analysed. Statistical methods used to analyse the data included principal component regression (PCR) and sensitivity analysis. The results showed PM10 was the dominant air pollutant in Langkawi and values ranged between 5.0 µg m-3 and 183.2 µg m-3. The patterns of monthly values showed that the concentrations of measured air pollutants on Langkawi were higher during the south-west monsoon (June-September) due to seasonal biomass burning activities. High CO/NOx ratio values (between 28.3 and 43.6), low SO2/NOx ratio values (between 0.04 and 0.12) and NO/NO2 ratio values exceeding 2.2 indicate the source of air pollutants in this area was motor vehicles. PCR analysis grouped the seven variables into two factor components: the F1 component consisted of SO2, NO and NOx and the F2 component consisted of PM10. The F1 component (R2 = 0.931) indicated a stronger standardized coefficient value for meteorological variables compared to the F2 component (R2 = 0.059). The meteorological variables were statistically significant (p < 0.05) in influencing the distribution of the air pollutants. The status of air quality on the island could be improved through control on motor vehicle emissions as well as collaborative efforts to reduce regional air pollution, especially from biomass burning.

Seasonal and long term variations of surface ozone concentrations in Malaysian Borneo.

Malaysian Borneo has a lower population density and is an area known for its lush rainforests. However, changes in pollutant profiles are expected due to increasing urbanisation and commercial-industrial activities. This study aims to determine the variation of surface O3 concentration recorded at seven selected stations in Malaysian Borneo. Hourly surface O3 data covering the period 2002 to 2013, obtained from the Malaysian Department of Environment (DOE), were analysed using statistical methods. The results show that the concentrations of O3 recorded in Malaysian Borneo during the study period were below the maximum Malaysian Air Quality Standard of 100ppbv. The hourly average and maximum O3 concentrations of 31 and 92ppbv reported at Bintulu (S3) respectively were the highest among the O3 concentrations recorded at the sampling stations. Further investigation on O3 precursors show that sampling sites located near to local petrochemical industrial activities, such as Bintulu (S3) and Miri (S4), have higher NO2/NO ratios (between 3.21 and 5.67) compared to other stations. The normalised O3 values recorded at all stations were higher during the weekend compared to weekdays (unlike its precursors) which suggests the influence of O3 titration by NO during weekdays. The results also show that there are distinct seasonal variations in O3 across Borneo. High surface O3 concentrations were usually observed between August and September at all stations with the exception of station S7 on the east coast. Majority of the stations (except S1 and S6) have recorded increasing averaged maximum concentrations of surface O3 over the analysed years. Increasing trends of NO2 and decreasing trends of NO influence the yearly averaged maximum of O3 especially at S3. This study also shows that variations of meteorological factors such as wind speed and direction, humidity and temperature influence the concentration of surface O3.

Physicochemical factors and sources of particulate matter at residential urban environment in Kuala Lumpur.

Long-term measurements (2004-2011) of PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <10 µm) and trace gases (carbon monoxide [CO], ozone [O3], nitrogen oxide [NO], oxides of nitrogen [NO(x)], nitrogen dioxide [NO2], sulfur dioxide [SO2], methane [CH4], nonmethane hydrocarbon [NMHC]) have been conducted to study the effect of physicochemical factors on the PM10 concentration. In addition, this study includes source apportionment of PM10 in Kuala Lumpur urban environment. An advanced principal component analysis (PCA) technique coupled with absolute principal component scores (APCS) and multiple linear regression (MLR) has been applied. The average annual concentration of PM10 for 8 yr is 51.3 ± 25.8 µg m⁻³, which exceeds the Recommended Malaysian Air Quality Guideline (RMAQG) and international guideline values. Detail analysis shows the dependency of PM10 on the linear changes of the motor vehicles in use and the amount of biomass burning, particularly from Sumatra, Indonesia, during southwesterly monsoon. The main sources of PM10 identified by PCA-APCS-MLR are traffic combustion (28%), ozone coupled with meteorological factors (20%), and wind-blown particles (1%). However, the apportionment procedure left 28.0 µg m⁻³, that is, 51% of PM10 undetermined.

Characterization and source apportionment of particle number concentration at a semi-urban tropical environment.

Principal component analysis (PCA) and correlation have been used to study the variability of particle mass and particle number concentrations (PNC) in a tropical semi-urban environment. PNC and mass concentration (diameter in the range of 0.25->32.0 µm) have been measured from 1 February to 26 February 2013 using an in situ Grimm aerosol sampler. We found that the 24-h average total suspended particulates (TSP), particulate matter ≤10 µm (PM10), particulate matter ≤2.5 µm (PM2.5) and particulate matter ≤1 µm (PM1) were 14.37 ± 4.43, 14.11 ± 4.39, 12.53 ± 4.13 and 10.53 ± 3.98 µg m(-3), respectively. PNC in the accumulation mode (<500 nm) was the most abundant (at about 99 %). Five principal components (PCs) resulted from the PCA analysis where PC1 (43.8 % variance) predominates with PNC in the fine and sub-microme tre range. PC2, PC3, PC4 and PC5 explain 16.5, 12.4, 6.0 and 5.6 % of the variance to address the coarse, coarser, accumulation and giant fraction of PNC, respectively. Our particle distribution results show good agreement with the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) distribution.

Long term assessment of air quality from a background station on the Malaysian Peninsula.

Rural background stations provide insight into seasonal variations in pollutant concentrations and allow for comparisons to be made with stations closer to anthropogenic emissions. In Malaysia, the designated background station is located in Jerantut, Pahang. A fifteen-year data set focusing on ten major air pollutants and four meteorological variables from this station were analysed. Diurnal, monthly and yearly pollutant concentrations were derived from hourly continuous monitoring data. Statistical methods employed included principal component regression (PCR) and sensitivity analysis. Although only one of the yearly concentrations of the pollutants studied exceeded national and World Health Organisation (WHO) guideline standards, namely PM10, seven of the pollutants (NO, NO2, NOx, O3, PM10, THC and CH4) showed a positive upward trend over the 15-year period. High concentrations of PM10 were recorded during severe haze episodes in this region. Whilst, monthly concentrations of most air pollutants, such as: PM10, O3, NOx, NO2, CO and NmHC were recorded at higher concentrations between June and September, during the southwest monsoon. Such results correspond with the mid-range transport of pollutants from more urbanised and industrial areas. Diurnal patterns, rationed between major air pollutants and sensitivity analysis, indicate the influence of local traffic emissions on air quality at the Jerantut background station. Although the pollutant concentrations have not shown a rapid increase, an alternative background station will need to be assigned within the next decade if development projects in the surrounding area are not halted.

Trend and status of air quality at three different monitoring stations in the Klang Valley, Malaysia.

Over the last decades, the development of the Klang Valley (Malaysia), as an urban commercial and industrial area, has elevated the risk of atmospheric pollutions. There are several significant sources of air pollutants which vary depending on the background of the location they originate from. The aim of this study is to determine the trend and status of air quality and their correlation with the meteorological factors at different air quality monitoring stations in the Klang Valley. The data of five major air pollutants (PM(10), CO, SO(2), O(3), NO(2)) were recorded at the Alam Sekitar Sdn Bhd (ASMA) monitoring stations in the Klang Valley, namely Petaling Jaya (S1), Shah Alam (S2) and Gombak (S3). The data from these three stations were compared with the data recorded at Jerantut, Pahang (B), a background station established by the Malaysian Department of Environment. Results show that the concentrations of CO, NO(2) and SO(2) are higher at Petaling Jaya (S1) which is due to influence of heavy traffic. The concentrations of PM(10) and O(3,) however, are predominantly related to regional tropical factors, such as the influence of biomass burning and of ultra violet radiation from sunlight. They can, though, also be influenced by local sources. There are relatively stronger inter-pollutant correlations at the stations of Gombak and Shah Alam, and the results also suggest that heavy traffic flow induces high concentrations of PM(10), CO, NO(2) and SO(2) at the three sampling stations. Additionally, meteorological factors, particularly the ambient temperature and wind speed, may influence the concentration of PM(10) in the atmosphere.