ABSTRACT
PURPOSE: To develop a model for pretreatment prediction of overall survival (OS) after radiofrequency ablation (RFA) for colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM). METHOD: This retrospective study included 491 patients (median age, 61 years; 348 men) who underwent percutaneous RFA for CRLM between 2000 and 2021. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate OS rates. Independent factors affecting OS were investigated using multivariable Cox regression analysis. Risk scores were assigned to the risk factors and pretreatment prediction models were created using the risk factors. RESULTS: After RFA, the 5-, 10-, and 20-year OS rates were 44 %, 31 %, and 24 %, respectively, and the median OS was 46 months. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that a largest tumor size ≥ 2 cm (P<0.001), positive nodal status of primary tumor (P<0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen level > 30 ng/mL (P=0.049), multiple tumors (P=0.008), and T4 stage of the primary tumor (P=0.029) were independently associated with OS. In patients with a single CRLM, tumor diameter (P<0.001), positive nodal status of primary tumor (P=0.001), disease-free interval <12 months (P=0.045), and subcapsular location (P=0.03) were risk factors affecting OS. According to our prediction models, which included the aforementioned risk factors, OS rates progressively decreased as the risk scores increased, with significantly different OS rates between contiguous groups (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction models can be used as a prognostic stratification tool in patients with CRLM, and can help select those candidates who will benefit most from RFA.