ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: In hospitalized patients undergoing therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE), it is not known how TPE-associated bleeding risk is impacted by a prior bleeding episode. Therefore, to assess the prevalence and predictors of bleeding recurrence, we analyzed data from the Recipient Epidemiology and Donor Evaluation Study-III (REDS-III). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Using a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of REDS-III public use files, we identified hospitalized adults who had a major bleeding episode prior to their first TPE procedure. Patients were classified into two cohorts based on bleeding recurrence (no-recurrence vs recurrence). After identifying potential predictors, we used multiple imputation by chained equations to impute variables with <30% missing data. Variable selection was optimized using a 10-fold cross validated least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Final predictors were identified by fitting a logistic regression model. RESULTS: In 310 patients with major bleeding prior to TPE initiation, bleeding recurred in 121 (39.0%). We identified the following seven unique predictors: 1) >10 TPE procedures (OR 2.23); 2) intensive care unit stay (OR 1.35); 3) thrombocytopenia (OR 1.26); 4) surgery (OR 1.22); 5) hepatic disease (OR 1.21); 6) 6-10 TPE procedures (OR 1.04); and 7) Asian race (OR 1.01). We also identified the following five interactions: 1) surgery and therapeutic anticoagulation (OR 1.50); 2) 6-10 TPE procedures and therapeutic anticoagulation (OR 1.05); 3) 6-10 TPE procedures and antiplatelets (OR 1.02); 4) >10 TPE procedures and antiplatelets (OR 1.00); and 5) albumin-only TPE and antiplatelets (OR 0.53). When assessed for adjusted performance, the prediction model had a C-statistic of 0.617 (95% CI 0.613-0.619) and Brier Score of 0.342 (95% CI 0.340-0.347). DISCUSSION: In this study assessing predictors of bleeding recurrence among hospitalized patients undergoing TPE, we identified seven variables and five interactions. These findings should be validated in future studies.